Conflict history: Somalia

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Head of State: President Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed, October 2004-

Removal of long-time Somali leader Siad Barre 1991 led to anarchy and violence in Somalia. Origins of disintegration of Somali state, created 1960 from Italian and British colonies, lie in breakdown of traditional society and role as Cold War proxy of both U.S. and Soviet Union in battle to control strategic Horn of Africa. Siad Barre’s Darod clan benefited most from widespread corruption fuelled by large influx of foreign aid, arousing envy of other clans. Ready availability of weapons led to brutally suppressed military uprisings, leading, in turn, to generalised clan-based action against Siad Barre, who fled January 1991. Subsequent collapse of central government created vacuum rapidly filled by rival political faction leaders-turned-warlords.

U.S.-led attempt December 1992 to protect food convoys for famine victims manipulated by warlords and metamorphosed into abortive attempt, in cooperation with UN mission, to oust leading warlord Mohamed Farah Aideed. U.S. force withdrew late 1993 after botched military operation left 18 U.S. troops dead. UNOSOM II, second UN mission, withdrew March 1995.

Series of peace talks failed to achieve agreement on new Somali government until August 2000, when Abdikassim Salat Hassan elected transitional president by various clan leaders at gathering in Arta in neighbouring Djibouti. Violence fuelled by clan-based faction leaders unhappy with Arta arrangement persisted until 2002, when 21 factions and Abdikassim’s transitional government signed ceasefire at fourteenth set of peace talks, this time sponsored by Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), East African regional body. After two further years of talks, 275-member parliament chosen by clans sworn in August 2004 in Nairobi, Kenya.

Despite election of Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed as Somali president and appointment of Professor Ali Muhammad Geedi as PM, Transitional Federal Government (TFG) remained extremely fragile and split into armed camps: one led by president and PM, based in Jowhar; other led by parliamentary speaker and coalition of faction leaders, based in Mogadishu. Breakthrough achieved 5 January 2006 when President and Speaker of Parliament Sharif Hassan Sheikh Aden signed Aden declaration in Yemen to unite rival government factions. Transitional parliament met for first time in Baidoa 26 February.
Heavy fighting broke out early 2006 between Union of Islamic Courts’ (UIC) militia and members of U.S.-backed Alliance for the Restoration of Peace and Counter-Terrorism (ARPCT). UIC seized control of Mogadishu 8 June, driving out rivals and later consolidating control over most of south. Talks in Khartoum between UIC and TFG led to mutual recognition and de facto ceasefire 22 June.

Situation deteriorated markedly in July. Ethiopian troops entered to support TFG – only to remain indefinitely. Prospects for power-sharing between UIC and TFG decreased as UIC refused to participate with Ethiopian troops in country. Full-scale conflict erupted December 2006 after Islamists gave Ethiopia seven-day ultimatum to withdraw. TFG-Ethiopian troops took upper hand end-December, routing UIC troops but leaving power vacuum. Defeat of Islamists signaled return to clan-based politics in country.

UN Security Council authorised 6-month AU peacekeeping mission (AMISOM) February 2007. Uganda, Nigeria and Burundi pledged deployment of troops and EU, U.S. and UK financial support. Ugandan troops deployed to Mogadishu in March as part of AMISOM mission amid continuing violence. Former UIC leader Sheikh Aweys said considered AU peacekeepers enemies, launched attacks on Ugandan bases.

Long-postponed National Reconciliation Congress held July 2007 in Mogadishu – conference itself attacked by mortars. Chairman of Reconciliation Committee invited opposition, but UIC chairman Sheikh Sharif Ahmed rejected clan-based process. AMISOM mandate extended August 2007, again February 2008.

New faction Alliance for the Re-liberation of Somalia (ARS) formed September 2007 with UIC leader Sharif elected chair. PM Geedi resigned 29 October after continued rift with President Yusuf and speculation of imminent no-confidence vote. New PM Nur Hassan Hussein (Nur Adde), sworn in 24 November, appointing new 18-strong streamlined cabinet 10 January 2008 after December dissolution over power-sharing row. Hundreds protested Ethiopian presence 7 November after arrival of reinforcements reported. Troops fired on protesters and radio stations later closed in crackdown on media.

UN talks between TFG and Asmara-based ARS began May 2008. Djibouti agreement signed 9 June by TFG, some of ARS, opened door to cessation of hostilities and withdrawal of Ethiopian troops. Formally signed 18 August, giving 30 days for ceasefire, 120 days for withdrawal if peacekeeping force deployed as replacement. Split in ARS deepened: agreement signatories led by Sharif, Asmara faction led by Aweys. Aweys, formally ARS-Asmara leader from July, likely more influence on ground than internationally-backed Sharif. TFG power struggle emerged between President Yusuf and PM Nur Adde after latter sacked Mogadishu mayor, 11 ministers resigned in protest, Yusuf revoked sacking order.

Security worsened early 2008. Islamist insurgency led by al-Shabaab militant group spread to Lower Shabelle, Puntland, Hiran, Bay, Bakool and Juba regions, amid reports of retaliatory attacks by Ethiopian forces and renewed U.S. airstrikes on Islamist bases. Key districts fell to insurgents late April as Mogadishu witnessed some of heaviest fighting in decade. Aid agencies continue to warn of acute humanitarian crisis: some 1.1 million estimated displaced since fighting resumed January 2006; WFP country director warned of “Ethiopia-like” famine, predicting some 3.5 million – nearly half population – will need food aid by end 2008. AMISIOM mandate extended by six months July 2008, Ethiopian troops redeploying away from central Somalia.

Updated September 2008

For further information see Crisis Group reports and briefings on Somalia. The CrisisWatch database provides a report on monthly conflict developments for Somalia since September 2003.