CrisisWatch Search Results

10-day candidate nomination period started 12 Jan ahead of 11 April combined polls. For presidential polls: President Bashir 11 Jan resigned position of military commander-in-chief and 12 Jan confirmed candidacy for NCP party; SPLM nominated party deputy Yassir Arman, leaving SPLM leader Salva Kiir open to contest Southern presidency. Former PM Sadiq al-Mahdi (overthrown by Bashir’s coup), opposition Umma National Party, announced candidacy 26 Jan. Senior NCP aide early month said gaps in 29 Dec referendum law raised risks of North-South conflict. Bashir during 19 Jan speech said NCP favoured unity but would support succession if approved. Darfur peace talks resumed in Doha 24 Jan but with no direct negotiations between govt/rebel parties by end month. Darfur rebel group SLA mid-month said govt had launched series of assaults on rebel positions in and around Jebel Marra region early month; SLA had struck back. Violence surged again in the South: 17 reportedly killed early month when armed civilians resisted official disarmament drive; at least 154 killed in separate inter-tribal clashes in remote Tonj region and Jonglei State. AU Commission Chair Jean Ping 28 Jan warned southern independence vote posed “catastrophic” risks for Sudan’s stability and threatened to spark further independence claims. Ashraf Qazi 18 Jan stepped down from post of UN Special Envoy to Sudan/UNMIS head; replaced by Eritrean diplomat Haile Menkerios 31 Jan.

• “Sudan’s Bashir says he will be the first to recognize independent South”, Sudan Tribune, 20 Jan. 2010.
• For background, see Crisis Group Africa Briefing N°68, Sudan: Preventing Implosion, 17 Dec. 2009 and Africa Report N°154, Jonglei’s Tribal Conflicts: Countering Insecurity in South Sudan, Africa Report N°154, 23 Dec. 2009.

Tensions between North-South partners surged early month, easing 13 Dec with new agreement on rules governing 2011 South Sudan and Abyei referenda. All Political Parties’ Conference parties (group of 20 opposition parties and SPLM) rallied in Khartoum 7 Dec calling for legal reforms to ease political restrictions ahead of April 2010 polls and facilitate referenda; police cracked down with tear gas, beatings, arrests; leading SPLM figures including Sec-General Pagan Amom briefly detained. NCP/SPLM held 3-day crisis talks from 10 Dec, 13 Dec announced breakthrough deal covering terms of S Sudan referendum bill (succession by simple majority; 60% turnout), criteria for voter eligibility in Abyei referendum, implementation of popular consultation bill on 2 border states; all 3 bills tabled 15 Dec and referendum bill passed 29 Dec. Controversial National Security bill passed by parliament 20 Dec despite opposition protests. Electoral commission reported at least 75% eligible voters had registered at completion of voter registration period 7 Dec. Carter Center described figure as encouraging, stressed serious problems including uneven participation, notably in Darfur. 5 UNAMID soldiers killed in attacks by gunmen in North Darfur, 4-5 Dec.

• Comment by Francois Grignon (Crisis Group), “Preparing for a Peaceful Southern Secession”, Reuters, 17 Dec. 2009.
• Comment by Fouad Hikmat and Donald Steinberg (Crisis Group), “Orchestrating Sudan’s Next Fateful Step”, Boston Globe, 10 Dec. 2009.
• “South Sudan leaders reach deal on secession”, Financial Times, 14 Dec. 2009.

30-day voter registration period ahead of April 2010 elections started 1 Nov, 23 Nov extended to 7 Dec following strong calls from SPLM for extension due to low registration figures, lack of public information, poor preparations by NCP-dominated govt; party also condemned exclusion of 9 regional countries from diaspora vote. Carter Centre, officially observing electoral process, expressed concern over govt restrictions on its staff’s movement, said lack of civic information preventing millions registering. SPLM maintained boycott of parliament; talks with NCP over month on referendum bill failed to break political deadlock. U.S. State Dept following 16-23 Nov visit to Sudan by special envoy Gration announced concerns over “chances for conducting elections and referenda” without greater political will to resolve outstanding CPA issues. Darfur peace talks slated to resume 16 Nov in Doha postponed again as rebel group JEM rejected participation over lack of rebel unity. 6 Nov report by UN Panel of Experts documented evidence of Darfur arms embargo violations by rebel groups and Khartoum. In South: at least 8 killed 1 Nov in tribal clashes near Malakal; agriculture minister injured, 5 others killed in 15 Nov attack on govt convoy; some 47 killed in cattle raids in Lakes State 16 Nov. OCHA reported over 220 killed and 157 abducted in attacks by suspected LRA rebels in southwest over 2009. Tensions between Chad and Sudan again rose as capitals exchanged accusations of delaying progress on steps to normalise relations agreed in Oct.

• “Sudan delays elections by six days”, Reuters, 23 Nov. 2009.
• For background, see Crisis Group Africa Report N°152, Justice, Peace and the ICC, 17 July 2009.

NCP and SPLM tensions continued to rise ahead of national elections scheduled for April 2010. Govt of South Sudan (GoSS) VP Riek Machar, following talks in Khartoum, announced provisional agreement struck with North on 2011 referendum bill, including endorsement by simple majority in event of 66% electoral turnout. But SPLM General Sec Pagun Amum, following consultations with party, 25 Oct rejected deal over turnout requirement. GoSS President Kiir in late month speech in Juba called on southerners to vote for separation, stating unity would result in southerners becoming “second-class citizens”. SPLM and NDA coalition walked out of parliament 26 Oct to protest bill backed by ruling NCP retaining intelligence service powers. SPLM stepped up accusations North arming southern tribes amid further clashes in Jonglei State early Oct. U.S. released Sudan Policy Review 16 Oct: includes joint emphasis on CPA, Darfur and accountability; annex on incentives and disincentives classified. Envoys from UNSC P5 states plus EU called for CPA progress in 6 Oct statement agreed in Moscow. AU Peace and Security Council at 29 Oct meeting in Abuja endorsed recommendations of Mbeki-led AU Panel on Darfur, including creation of hybrid tribunal; NCP expressed caution over tribunal; JEM dismissed recommendations as “unpractical”. Bashir invited but declined to attend. Further militia attacks on Darfur peacekeepers. Govt increased troops in West Darfur, near SLM-Abdel Wahed and JEM rebel strongholds. South Sudan army 24 Oct reported LRA had moved into Darfur and attacked displaced 21 Oct.

• “Opposition parties walk out of Sudan parliament”, Reuters, 26 Oct. 2009.
• For background, see Africa Report N°152, Justice, Peace and the ICC, 17 July 2009.

U.S. Envoy Gration arrived in Juba 9 Sept for further talks between SPLM and NCP delegations to build on “roadmap” agreed in Aug, but parties failed to make progress on 2 most contentious election issues of census results and rules governing 2011 secession referendum. Govt of South Sudan (GoSS) stepped up disarmament drive in and around Juba ahead of Gration’s visit. At least 20 killed in reportedly heavy fighting around Korma, North Darfur, between govt troops and SLA-al Nur faction after days of military build up. President Bashir followed with late month call on Darfur rebel groups to join talks, scheduled to reopen Oct. 1 UNAMID peacekeeper killed, 2 wounded in 29 Sept attack on convoy. Over 100 killed in tribal clashes in south’s Jonglei State late month, bringing death toll from southern tribal fighting since Jan to over 2,000; aid groups report women and children targeted. GoSS 23 Sept announced hundreds of troops deployed to secure region. SPLM continues to accuse NCP of distributing arms to destabilise south. Vicious attacks by LRA rebels on southern villages continued, with UN reporting 7 raids over month. Speculation over NCP internal tensions following President Bashir’s mid-Aug removal of General Salah Mohammed Abdalla (Gosh) from powerful post as director of intelligence and security.

• “Darfur: Neither all-out war nor a proper peace”, Economist, 3 Sept. 2009.
• For background, see Africa Report N°152, Justice, Peace and the ICC, 17 July 2009.

Delegations from south’s SPLM and north’s NCP, meeting under mediation of U.S. envoy Gration, 19 Aug signed new “action plan” for implementing 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), but parties failed to make progress on key issues of disputed census and 2011 referendum. SPLM officials continued to accuse Khartoum of destabilising south by arming civilians. Further deadly attacks between communities in south’s Jongeli State left 185 dead early month. UN reported at least 180 killed in south amid recent spike in attacks and abductions by suspected LRA rebels, causing temporary suspensions of aid operations. Gration 21 Aug announced separate progress in Darfur peace talks in Addis Ababa, with agreement from 4 rebel groups to work as united front and commit to peace “roadmap”; key player JEM remains outside of talks. Officials from Sudan, Egypt, Libya and Gration convened in Cairo 23 Aug to coordinate peace efforts including on Darfur; Qatari representatives notably absent. UNAMID General Martin Agwai late month said that despite persistence of localized disputes, war in Darfur effectively over; activists condemned statements and wider U.S. policy of engaging Khartoum.

• “Darfur rebels reach unification-deal in Addis Ababa”, Sudan Tribune, 24 Aug. 2009.
• For background, see Crisis Group Africa Report N°152, Justice, Peace and the ICC, 17 July 2009.

Abyei Tribunal based in the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) 22 July delivered decision on disputed Abyei region at north-south border: in compromise verdict – welcomed by both NCP and SPLM – PCA shifted border to give north access to region’s richest oil field; assigned Ngok Dinka ethnic group, expected to vote in 2011 referendum, control over remaining area. Following its 24 June-3 July summit in Libya, AU announced it would not cooperate with ICC over President Bashir’s arrest. ICC Chief Prosecutor Ocampo 7 July lodged appeal with Court to expand Bashir’s charges to include genocide. Egypt hosted meetings with President Bashir and 6 Darfuri rebel groups early month for talks on Darfur peace process. JEM, absent from Cairo talks, 3 July signed “declaration of principles” with opposition Umma party in potential new political alliance, agreed not to accept census results. Opposition parties argued current Govt of National Unity illegitimate beyond 10 July 2009, demanded transitional national govt. Chad 16 July conducted further air strikes in Darfur, prompting Sudan to urge UNSC action; reports of retaliatory attacks by Khartoum in Darfur region 2 days later. UNSG Ban expressed “grave concern” over both incidents.

• “Sudan flashpoint”, Financial Times, 23 July 2009.

North/South tensions continued to escalate. Former FM Lam Akol early month split from South’s ruling SPLM to form new party, SPLM-Democratic Change. SPLM leadership accused Khartoum of manipulating Southern politics, distributing arms; NCP accused SPLM of training JEM fighters, threatened to ban SPLM activities in North unless GoSS “open up” South to NCP. GoSS leader Salva Kiir 18 June announced military preparing for possible war in 2011. Electoral commission 30 June announced postponement of presidential elections from Feb to April 2010 amid continuing dispute over census results for South. At CPA conference in Washington 23-24 June, U.S. Sudan envoy Gration and Northern delegation claimed solid progress on CPA implementation talks, including NCP agreement to accept “final and binding” arbitration ruling in July on Abyei; SPLM said no progress made. Some 40 S Sudanese soldiers and civilians killed in 12 June ambush by Jikany Nuer on UN aid boats in Upper Nile State. In Darfur: UN humanitarian chief Holmes announced Khartoum authorized return of 4 international aid agencies under modified names. Gration 17 June said Sudan no longer engaged in “coordinated genocide” in Darfur. Doha peace talks between govt and JEM rebels adjourned for 2 months mid-June, with sides trading accusations of military aggression.

• “South Sudan leader on war footing”, BBC, 18 June 2009.
• For background, see Crisis Group Africa Report N°145, Sudan’s Southern Kordofan Problem: The Next Darfur?,21 October 2008

Increasingly open strains between North-South governing partners, while tensions with N’djamena increased sharply following Chadian incursions in pursuit of rebels on Sudanese soil (see Chad). 150 SPLM and opposition MPs walked out of late-month parliamentary debate on repressive press bill introduced by dominant NCP. President of South Sudan Salva Kiir (SPLM) rejected legitimacy of Apr-May national census. Darfur peace talks between govt, JEM resumed in Doha 7 May after March-Apr hiatus. Planned $3m Darfur peace conference organised by Mo Ibrahim involving 300 civil society representatives cancelled 10 May after delegates denied exit visas by Khartoum. In Darfur, UN USG Holmes during early-month visit reported aid effort holding, but deterioration imminent. Khartoum 8 May said new or renamed aid agencies welcome, existing operations could expand. Insecurity across Darfur continued: govt late-month launched air strikes on N Darfur’s Umm Baru town, following earlier clashes between JEM and SLM-Minni Minawi; JEM 17 May attacked military sites in Karnoi area. Govt of South Sudan announced crackdown on armed cattle raiding, as further 49 killed in raids in Upper Nile state. In South Kordofan: 167 members of 2 Arab tribes and 75 police killed in severe late month clashes near Darfur border. Commander of URF rebels Abu Garda surrendered to The Hague to face ICC war crimes charges over 2007 attack on AMIS peacekeepers. 2 killed, several villages ransacked and hundreds displaced in attacks by suspected LRA rebels in S Sudan’s Nzara county on 17 May.

• Comment by Donald Steinberg and Fouad Hikmat (Crisis Group), “Keeping Our Eyes on the Prize”, allAfrica, 4 May 2009.
• “Sudan SPLM, NCP legislators exchange accusations”, Sudan Tribune, 15 May 2009.
• “Sudan govt forces bomb near North Darfur-UN”, Reuters, 13 May 2009.
• For background, see Crisis Group Africa Report N°145, Sudan’s Southern Kordofan Problem: The Next Darfur?,21 October 2008.

President Bashir continued diplomatic drive to garner support in wake of March ICC indictment with visit to Ethiopia 21-22 Apr. Sudanese delegation met with UK and French FMs in Paris late month but with no progress on indictment stand-off. U.S. envoy Gration and U.S. Senator Kerry travelled to Sudan 2 Apr and 15 Apr, reportedly securing agreement for return of small number of aid organisations after March expulsions and signalling easing in U.S.-Khartoum relations. In Darfur, humanitarian situation stable but risks of deterioration high. AU delegation led by Thabo Mbeki arrived in region 3 Apr. 21 members of Darfur’s JEM rebels sentenced to death by Khartoum court for treason. In surprise move, electoral commission announced national and regional elections (incl. for South Sudan) for Feb 2010, requiring 7-month extension of Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) deadline. Signs of north/south tension, with SPLM publicly accusing NCP of dragging feet on CPA, mishandling ICC; NCP-hosted conference in Kenana, White Nile State, 1-3 Apr ended with condemnation of administrative, security deterioration in south. 177 confirmed dead, likely many more, in heavily armed raids by rival Lou Nuer and Merle ethnic groups in the south’s Jonglei state in late March and 20-21 Apr, marking severe increase in scale of cattle raiding violence. UNSC renewed UNMIS mandate to Apr 2010.

• “Sudan, France & UK conclude talks without agreement”, Sudan Tribune, 23 Apr. 2009.
• “Southern Sudan: Fear of fragmentation”, Economist, 8 Apr. 2009.
• For background, see Crisis Group Africa Report N°145, Sudan’s Southern Kordofan Problem: The Next Darfur?,21 Oct. 2008.

Khartoum in response to 4 March decision by ICC pre-trial chamber to issue arrest warrant for President Bashir, for crimes against humanity and war crimes in Darfur (excl. genocide), expelled 13 international aid groups (along with 3 national groups); UN warned of rapid deterioration in conditions and security within Darfur IDP camps. Reports indictment causing tensions at senior level of Bashir’s National Congress Party. Govt moved to rally public support for president, while Bashir undertook defiant visits to Eritrea, Egypt, Qatar late month (none party to ICC). Pro-ICC sentiment brutally repressed: university protests in Delinj (S Kordofan) and Khartoum met with open fire, beatings, arrests. PNC opposition leader Al-Turabi released 9 March from 2-month detention. JEM 20 March suspended participation in Qatar peace talks until humanitarian ban lifted. UNSC meetings 6, 20 March failed to adopt resolution on response to ICC; Arab League and Africa Union (AU) urged UNSC to authorise deferral. AU late month announced conference for June to discuss indictment and members’ possible withdrawal from ICC. Rtrd General Scott Gration appointed new U.S. Sudan envoy.

• Comments by Fouad Hikmat (Crisis Group), “Hard Road to Peace after ICC Indicts Bashir”, East African, 6 March 2009.
• “Warning as humanitarian crisis deepens in Darfur”, Guardian, 24 March 2009.
• For background, see Crisis Group Africa Report N°145, Sudan’s Southern Kordofan Problem: The Next Darfur?, 21 Oct. 2008.

Events dominated by long-awaited announcement of ICC arrest warrant for President Bashir and debate over potential to increase insecurity but also prospects for long-term peace; ICC 23 Feb announced decision to be issued 4 March. As unofficial reports indicated positive decision by Pre-Trial chamber judges on Prosecutor’s July request for war crimes, crimes against humanity, AU-Arab League 12 Feb lobbied UNSC for Article 16 deferral of indictment; U.S., UK, French opposed. Qatar peace talks opened 10 Feb between JEM, govt – 1st since 2007. Attacks ongoing during negotiations, and talks reportedly stalled 14 Feb over rebel demands for confidence-building measures - prisoner exchange, cessation of attacks on IDPs. Measures included in 17 Feb “Declaration of intent”, but no ceasefire, and deal dismissed by other rebel groups. Parties remaining in Doha to put together framework ceasefire agreement before actual peace talks. Following deal, JEM 18 Feb accused govt of air, ground attacks against 2 positions in Jebel Marra - denied by army. Govt 4 Feb announced Muhajariya taken from rebels after weeks of fighting and mounting UN fears over conditions for civilians; rebels said had voluntarily evacuated. 12 Feb said authorities preventing aid agencies getting supplies to over 100,000 Darfuri civilians; 18 Feb said full UNAMID deployment postponed again to June. Govt 15 Feb announced beginning of investigations into alleged Darfur rights abuses in 2003-04. SPLM/A, govt 15 Feb submitted 2nd round of arguments to Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) on Abyei Boundaries Commission dispute. Some 50 killed, 100 wounded in fresh clashes 24 Feb between SPLM and southern militia in southern town Malakal.

• “Why did Sudan make a deal with Darfur rebels?”, Christian Science Monitor, 18 Feb. 2009.
• “US, France, UK oppose suspending Bashir Darfur case”, Reuters, 13 Feb. 2009.
• For background, see Crisis Group Africa Report N°145, Sudan’s Southern Kordofan Problem: The Next Darfur?

Imminent ICC judges’ decision on whether to issue arrest warrant for President Bashir dominating political dynamics, fuelling fears for continued deterioration of security situation amid threats of possible Darfur rebel attacks against cities, oil installations. As political options for dealing with ICC indictment under debate, hopes remain for positive reaction from political forces in favour of ICC cooperation. Month saw escalation of Darfur inter-tribal fighting, govt aerial bombing of rebel-held areas, clashes between rebel groups. Govt early Jan bombed JEM positions in North Darfur, 13, 14 Jan bombed rebel positions in southern Darfur; govt troops 22 Jan clashed with Darfur rebels. Violence intensified 15 Jan between SLM-Minni Minawi (MM) and JEM forces around SLM stronghold Muhajirya. Clashes between militias and Joint Integrated Units in Southern Kordofan 13 Jan killed at least 16. With ICC judges’ decision on Bashir arrest warrant expected within weeks, JEM reportedly planning attacks when decision announced. Sudanese authorities 14 Jan arrested Popular Congress Party leader al-Turabi after he urged Bashir to surrender to ICC. Progress stalled on Qatari initiative to bring rebel groups, govt to peace talks; rebel groups refusing to participate or still considering. Doubts mounting over whether fair elections will take place mid-2009, despite NCP and SPLM assurances. Govt 29 Jan accused Chad of helping JEM.

• “Sudan army clashes with Darfur fighters”, Reuters, 23 Jan. 2009.
• “’Anything is possible’ if ICC indicts president”, IRIN, 22 Jan. 2009.
• For background, see Crisis Group Africa Report N°145, Sudan’s Southern Kordofan Problem: The Next Darfur?,  21 Oct. 2008.

Tensions running high ahead of imminent decision by ICC judges on President Bashir arrest warrant request for genocide, war crimes; fears indictment may lead to unravelling of Darfur peace initiative, undermine CPA implementation. ICC Prosecutor Moreno-Ocampo 3 Dec briefed UN on likely Jan. decision on warrant. Despite some figures in NCP urging govt to cooperate with ICC, Bashir 17 Dec said no suspects to be handed over. Qatari peace initiative continued to stall despite govt support: JEM delegation in Qatar 1 Dec to discuss, but undecided whether to participate; SLA leader al-Nur 2 Dec repeated vow to boycott talks unless govt militias disarmed, attacks end; SLM 14 Dec rejected initiative. Several killed in mid-month inter-ethnic clashes in Darfur. UN official 3 Dec accused JEM of recruiting refugees in eastern Chad; also expressed concern about spread of weapons, politicisation of refugee camps. Govt mid-Dec reported JEM build-up, imminent attacks near western border targeting major cities in Sudan; denied by JEM. Several hundred Ethiopian UNAMID troops arrived in Darfur 16-19 Dec. Govt 7 Dec said troops deployed in South Kordofan against suspected rebel attack, allegedly JEM. In move to ease tensions, govt 14 Dec agreed to withdraw troops from Abyei after 12 Dec dispute between army and police caused thousands to flee. Written arguments presented 18 Dec by govt, SPLM to Abyei Arbitration Tribunal, agreed to in June 2008.

• “Southern Sudan calls for an end to military build-up”, East African, 13 Dec. 2008.
• “Council backs idea to indict Sudan leader”, New York Times, 3 Dec. 2008.
• For background, see Crisis Group Africa Report N°145, Sudan’s Southern Kordofan Problem: The Next Darfur?, 21 Oct. 2008

Ahead of proposed Qatar peace conference, and in response to Sudan People’s Initiative, President Bashir 12 Nov announced unconditional govt ceasefire in Darfur and militia disarmament. Darfur rebel groups said govt insincere, no ceasefire before peace deal. Ceasefire soon broken, with govt and rebels blaming each other; incidents included 2 mid-Nov govt aerial attacks reported by rebels, UN; 30 rebel fighters killed in 20 Nov insurgent attack; 21-22 Nov govt air strikes in south Darfur confirmed by UN. Govt 14 Nov confirmed purchase of 12 fighter jets from Russia. 500-strong Egyptian UNAMID battalion arrived in Darfur mid-Nov; UNAMID 25 Nov again cited troop, equipment shortages. Ruling NCP 9 Nov turned down possibility of bilateral talks with JEM in favour of inclusive peace agreement; JEM 16 Nov confirmed plans to send delegation to Qatari initiative. ICC prosecutor 20 Nov presented case for sealed indictment of 3 Darfur rebel commanders accused of Sept 2007 Haskanita attack on peacekeepers; 17 Nov provided over 700 pages additional info to Pre-Trial Chamber I judges on application for Bashir indictment. Following 17 Nov parliament approval Bashir 25 Nov appointed National Electoral Commission, needed for 2009 general elections. NCP, SPLM in late Nov agreement on press, land commission, human rights laws. FM 1 Nov said disgruntled pro-govt militia responsible for Oct kidnapping and murder of Chinese oil workers. 3 human rights activists detained 24 Nov in Khartoum; subsequently released. Over 150 journalists on 24-hr hunger strike 4 Nov to protest govt censorship; over 60 arrested 17 Nov for protesting, later released.

• Comment by Fouad Hikmat (Crisis Group), “Is the Southern Kordofan issue a new Darfur?”, Asharq Alawsat, 25 Nov. 2008. 
• “Sudan government breaks Darfur ceasefire: UN’s Ban”, Reuters, 27 Nov. 2008.
• “ICC warrants sought for 3 Sudanese rebel chiefs”, Washington Post, 21 Nov. 2008.
• “A gleam among the ruins”, Economist, 20 Nov. 2008.
• For background, see Crisis Group Africa Report N°145, Sudan’s Southern Kordofan Problem: The Next Darfur?,  21 Oct. 2008.

Govt 16 Oct announced new “Sudan Peace Initiative” for Darfur; rebel groups, opposition parties boycotted. JEM 8 Oct still undecided on participation in Qatar peace talks, insisted on UN and AU involvement, said no ceasefire prior to peace deal. SLM and Sudan National Liberation Movement (SNLM) 15 Oct announced reunification, emphasising Darfuri rebel unity. UN 18 Oct said Sept violence displaced 50,000 in northern Darfur. 2 UNAMID peacekeepers killed 6 and 30 Oct; UNSG Ban said further UNAMID deployment delayed due to security situation. ICC pre-trial chamber held first meeting with ICC prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo 1 Oct on application for President Bashir arrest warrant; later asked Moreno-Ocampo for additional information by 17 Nov. Sudanese official 12 Oct said militia commander Ali Kushayb, wanted by ICC, was in custody; domestic investigation completed but unclear whether would stand trial. Moreno-Ocampo 17 Oct announced imminent request for ICC indictment against Darfur rebel commanders for attacking AU peacekeepers. UNSG Ban 28 Oct called for more UNMIS peacekeepers for South Sudan. Fears that Khartoum and Govt of South Sudan (GoSS) rearming in violation of CPA, with Kenya and GoSS denying reports that arms on pirated Ukrainian ship (see Somalia) destined for GoSS via Kenya. 9 Chinese oil workers taken hostage 19 Oct in South Kordofan region; 5 killed, 2 missing, 2 escaped.

• “UN wants more troops in disputed Sudan oil region”, Reuters, 28 Oct. 2008.
• “War crimes investigations are mere ‘window dressing’”, Human Rights Watch, 20 Oct. 2008.
• “Darfuris say Sudan initiative dead in water”, Sudan Tribune, 16 Oct. 2008.

Continued fighting in Darfur, particularly in north, including govt aerial attacks on rebels. Govt denied attacks, UNAMID confirmed fighting. Rebels claimed 21 govt soldiers killed in 17 Sept battle. UNAMID reported 2 attacks on their aircraft due to rebel confusion with Sudanese army aircraft, now also painted white in condemned practice. ICC judges 19 Sept issued order for 1 Oct closed meeting with Prosecutor Moreno-Ocampo on July request for President Bashir arrest warrant. France, UK indicated possible support for UNSC deferral of prosecution under Article 16 of Rome Statute if Khartoum changes policies, pursues Darfur peace; rebel SLM 25 Sept voiced opposition. AU 22 Sept reiterated support for UNSC deferral; said domestic courts should investigate crimes, Khartoum to involve AU/Arab League (AL) lawyers to give “required credibility”. AL Ministerial Council formed 9 Sept to resolve Darfur crisis, co-chaired by Qatar, AU, AL. Some Darfur rebels and opposition Umma leader dismissed initiative. UN 7 Sept threatened to suspend some Darfur humanitarian assistance after 3 Sept attack on WFP convoy, one of over 100 in 2008. NCP and former rebel SLM-Minawi 17 Sept discussed implementation of 2006 Darfur Peace Agreement, recent govt attacks against SLM-Minawi. At UN 26 Sept, Sudan elected head of “Group of 77” developing countries.

• “Sudan lobbies against Bashir case”, BBC, 23 Sept. 2008.
• “Darfur rebels dismiss Arab League initiative to resolve crisis”, Sudan Tribune, 9 Sept. 2008.

Ruling NCP stance hardened against July International Criminal Court (ICC) prosecutor’s application for President Bashir arrest warrant. Bashir said 20 Aug will ask UNAMID peacekeepers to leave if ICC issues warrant. UNSC divided over invoking Art 16 of Rome Statute to defer investigation, as UN 19 Aug reported strengthened security measures in case of hostile reaction. Darfur rebel groups rejected new govt-SPLM agreed framework for Sudan People’s Initiative (SPI) to resolve Darfur conflict. Army launched new offensive: 26 Aug killed more than 30 in weapons hunt in southern Darfur IDP camp, drawing protest resignations from Darfur govt officials and condemnation from UNAMID. UN, activists urged review of some 50 death sentences for rebels accused of May attack on capital. NCP and SPLM agreed 8 Aug on composition of Abyei administration: Bashir appointed SPLM member as chief administrator, NCP member as deputy. UN peacekeeping mission reported 10 Aug north and south armies still not fully withdrawn from region, but joint forces operating. 4 days print-run of Sudan Tribune seized for criticising govt on North-South peace deal roll-out. Sudan and Chad agreed 1 Aug to restore bilateral relations. Some 70 killed in 20 Aug clashes between Rizeigat and Misseriya over water, land in southern Darfur; govt responded with rapid reconciliation mechanism. Swiss group 26 Aug reported build up of troops, weapons in Nuba Mountains. Unidentified group hijacked passenger plane leaving Darfur 26 Aug, all but crew released in Libya 27 Aug.

• “The drift back to war”, Small Arms Survey, Aug. 2008.
• “Sudan forces surround Darfur camp after raid-rebels”, Reuters, 26 Aug. 2008.
•  “Rebels say Sudan in new offensive in north Darfur”, AP, 13 Aug. 2008.
• For background, see Crisis Group Africa Briefing N°50, Sudan’s Comprehensive Peace Agreement: Beyond the Crisis, 13 Mar. 2008.

International Criminal Court (ICC) Prosecutor Moreno-Ocampo 14 July applied for arrest warrant for Sudanese President Bashir on charges of genocide, crimes against humanity, war crimes – much-feared regime response so far restrained; progress on stalled Darfur peace process and CPA implementation possible as judges consider application. AU, Arab League, China warned of damage to peace process. Ruling NCP organised ICC protests. Bashir in rare Darfur visit 23 July, accompanied by U.S., UK officials, emphasised peace efforts – rebels reported subsequent army attacks. Plans for politically inclusive conference on Darfur reported 31 July. Retaliation fears prompted increased UN security, compounded by 17 July killing of UNAMID peacekeeper that followed 9 July attack killing 7 UNAMID. AU 21 July requested UNSC defer ICC prosecution; France, UK said too soon to consider. UNSC 31 July extended UNAMID 1 year, noted AU request; U.S. abstained from vote. Northern, southern armies withdrew end-July from disputed Abyei region following May clashes, allowing joint force deployment. Khartoum offer to resume diplomatic ties with Chad, cut after May rebel attack on capital, rejected: 8 JEM sentenced to death for involvement (see Chad). New election law signed 7 July: prospect of first free elections in 23 years in 2009; opposition and former rebels’ support tempered by concern over NCP advantage. Southern SPLM leader Salva Kiir 27 July announced would run for presidency. Sudan claimed Ethiopian soldiers killed 19 in 7 July attack on northern military camp; Ethiopia dismissed incident, blamed poorly demarcated border.

• Comment by Nick Grono and Fabienne Hara (Crisis Group), “Security Council should make President meet benchmarks”, allAfrica.com, 25 July 2008.
• Crisis Group statement, “Opportunities and Risks for Peace in Sudan”, 14 July 2008.
• “Sudan rallies behind leader reviled abroad”, New York Times, 28 July 2008.
• “Sudan passes election law ahead of key 2009 vote”, Reuters, 7 July 2008.
• For background, see Crisis Group Africa Briefing N°50, Sudan’s Comprehensive Peace Agreement: Beyond the Crisis, 13 Mar. 2008.

“Road Map” agreed 8 June to end North-South clashes over contested oil town Abyei; joint integrated unit deployed 18 June as per CPA to help re-establish security and assist returning displaced. NCP and SPLM agreed 21 June to submit Abyei border dispute to Hague-based Permanent Court for Arbitration; 1 July reports suggest both sides’ troops failed to meet end-June withdrawal deadline. U.S. accused UN of failing to protect town; UN Envoy Ashraf Qazi rejected claims, saying not UN mandate, but UNSC requested investigation. Khartoum put 39 on trial 18 June for involvement in May JEM rebel attack on capital. EU leaders demanded Khartoum hand over ICC war crimes indictees; warned new sanctions. In 5 June report to UNSC, ICC Prosecutor Moreno-Ocampo said evidence shows “organised campaign by Sudanese officials”, promised to present new case to judges in July. Chinese President Hu Jintao called on Sudan to do more for peace in Darfur, attempting to deflect criticism for ties. Khartoum banned U.S. companies from working with UN peacekeepers in Darfur. SLM-Unity rebels claimed killed some 160 soldiers in North Darfur ambush, promised extension of operations beyond region. Head of Médècins Sans Frontières in South Darfur expelled from region 26 June for refusing to participate in investigation into aid agency misconduct; UN warned of Darfur food crisis as seventh WFP driver killed in country since year-start. Burkina Faso FM Djibrill Bassole appointed joint AU/UN mediator at 30 June AU summit, replacing UN, AU Envoys Jan Eliasson and Salim Ahmed Salim.

• Comment by Caroline Flintoft (Crisis Group), “Our silence on Sudan shames us”, Globe and Mail, 16 June 2008.
•  “Former US special envoy to Sudan warns against ICC Darfur indictments”, Sudan Tribune, 27 June 2008.
• “Concerns rising over Darfur restrictions”, IRIN, 24 June 2008.
• “Hague court to decide Sudan’s disputed Abyei border”, Reuters, 21 June 2008.
• For background, see Crisis Group Africa Briefing N°50, Sudan’s Comprehensive Peace Agreement: Beyond the Crisis, 13 March 2008.

2 major assaults further strained North-South relations and fragile situation in Darfur. Heavy fighting began 14 May in oil-rich Abyei between Sudanese govt (GoS) and southern Sudan troops (SPLA): at least 21 killed, up to 100,000 displaced. SPLA/M withdrew from U.S. talks, claimed emboldening north; reportedly dismissed 30 May GoS proposal for North-South joint-administration of Abeyi as PR stunt; party convention 15 May re-elected leader Salva Kiir. 23 killed – including South Sudan defence minister, presidential adviser – in 2 May plane crash near Rumbek; Kiir cited engine failure. Darfur rebel group JEM attacked Khartoum 10-11 May in first attempt on capital for 30 years; 200 reportedly killed. JEM promised fresh attacks, claiming allies in security forces and universities. GoS crackdown followed: 300 arrested in 12 May Khartoum sweep – including opposition leader Al-Turabi, later released; diplomatic ties with Chad cut 11 May over JEM links. Smaller rebel group SLM-Unity 26 May joined JEM call for further attacks. GoS airstrikes on civilian targets in northern Darfur killing at least 13 reported 4 May; Khartoum blocking aid. UNAMID troops ambushed, disarmed by 60 unidentified gunmen West Darfur 21 May; Ugandan peacekeeper found shot dead in El-Fasher 28 May. UNSC due to meet President Bashir and Kiir to urge adherence to 2005 peace deal as part of 9-day mission to key Africa conflict zones, starting 1 June.

• Comment by David Mozersky (Crisis Group), “Abyei conflict threatens to escalate into full-scale war”, allAfrica.com, 29 May 2008.
• “New civil war feared in Sudan as town empties”, Washington Post, 26 May 2008.
• “Sudan’s Islamist rebels”, New Statesman, 20 May 2008.
• For background, see Crisis Group Africa Briefing N°47, Sudan: Breaking the Abyei Deadlock, 12 Oct. 2007.

Some 30 killed in 24 Apr violent North-South clashes in contested Abyei region between southern army (SPLA) and northern Misseriya, following early Apr reports of northern troop deployments to region. 95 killed in inter-tribal fighting in southern Lakes and Warrap states. Repeatedly delayed census, first since 1993, launched 22 Apr; seen as prerequisite to democratic elections 2009. Major army-JEM rebel clashes reported in Darfur 12 Apr, both sides claim inflicted heavy losses. Army allegedly bombed 2 villages 1 Apr, killing 1 child, Khartoum denies. AU, UN Envoys reported parties to conflict agreed in mid-month consultations to discuss security improvements, but not ceasefires or new peace talks. Mission head said 30 Apr 1,600 troops to join AU-UN peacekeeping mission June; UNMIS mandate renewed same day. 2 WFP drivers killed 7 Apr in South Sudan, 1 in Darfur 21 Apr; agency announced 17 Apr regularity of attacks forced halving monthly rations in Darfur. UN humanitarian chief 22 Apr put 5-year Darfur conflict death toll as high as 300,000; Sudan rejected.

• “Clashes in Darfur, protests mark five years of war”, Reuters, 13 Apr. 2008.
• “UN given access to resolve Sudan oil flashpoint”, Reuters, 7 Apr. 2008.
• For background, see Crisis Group Africa Briefing N°47, Sudan: Breaking the Abyei Deadlock, 12 Oct. 2007.

North-South tensions flared and West Darfur situation remained precarious, despite 13 March peace agreement with Chad. Up to 70 killed in 1 March clash between southern army (SPLA) and Misseriya in contested Abyei border region; SPLA accused Khartoum of backing Misseriya. Fresh clashes reported 16, 20 March; hundreds displaced. Darfur peace process further faltered as Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) rebels 16 March requested 1-on-1 peace talks with government, in snub to other Darfur rebel factions, though later backed down. JEM reported countering major army assault 18 March in West Darfur; UN humanitarian chief in Sudan Ameerah Haq 3 March accused group of blocking access to some 20,000 trapped by fighting. 20 March UN report called army’s destruction of villages during deadly Feb Darfur attacks “deliberate” military strategy; army denied. UN Darfur envoy Jan Eliasson and AU counterpart Salim Salim urged donor nations 18 March to rapidly deploy peacekeepers to region. EU peacekeeping force in Chad (EUFOR) soldier reportedly killed 3 March at army checkpoint as soldiers accidentally crossed into Sudan; Khartoum demanded $40,000 compensation for 4 nomads alleged killed by grenade while moving soldier’s body. 20 south Sudanese reported killed by Ugandan gunmen early March. 3 drivers of WFP-contracted trucks killed in 2 incidents in southern Sudan, 22, 24 March; 4 water engineers working for UNICEF counterpart abducted in north Darfur 20 March.

• “Rising tension in Abyei as clashes displace hundreds”, IRIN, 24 Mar. 2008.
• “Sudan accused over Darfur strikes”, BBC, 20 Mar. 2008.
• “Darfur rebels demand one-on-one peace talks”, Reuters, 16 Mar. 2008.

Worst violence in Darfur in months as government launched major aerial bombardments and ground attacks on 3 towns in West Darfur 8 Feb: 200 reported killed, 10,000 fled to Chad. Airstrikes continued mid-month near Aro Sharow IDP camp, condemned by UNSG Ban Ki-moon 20 Feb. International Committee of the Red Cross employee killed during 8 Feb fighting. Signing of Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) 9 Feb on operating rules removed major barriers to deployment of UN-AU hybrid peacekeeping force. Sudanese army rejected appointment of UK officer as chief of staff to force commander 14 Feb. Renewed fighting broke out mid-month in contested Abyei region with heightened tension as some Misseriya unilaterally declared own state. UN SRSG for Sudan Ashraf Qazi warned of Abyei risk in first briefing to UNSC 19 Feb, also stressed importance of 2005 North-South Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA). Former UK diplomat Derek Plumbly appointed new head of CPA monitoring body 13 Feb. Justice Minister Mohammed Ali al-Mardi removed from position in 14 Feb Khartoum cabinet reshuffle.

• “All talk and no action in Darfur”, BBC, 25 Feb. 2008.
• “Situation in Darfur is deteriorating – UN’s Ban”, Reuters, 20 Feb. 2008. 
• For background, see Crisis Group Africa Report N°134, Darfur’s New Security Reality, 26 Nov. 2007.

Security in West Darfur worsened with Chadian army conducting air raids inside Sudanese territory and Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) threatening capital El Geneina. Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) attacked UN/AU (UNAMID) convoy 7 Jan near Tine. Khartoum continued to obstruct UNAMID deployment while appointing Musa Hilal, leader of Janjaweed militias, special adviser to Ministry of Federal Affairs. UN and AU Darfur envoys, Salim Salim and Jan Eliasson, 19 Jan stressed deteriorating relations between Chad and Sudan but said preparation underway for another round of Darfur pre-negotiations among rebels in next 6 weeks. SLM-Unity led by Abdallah Yahya, and newly formed United Resistance Front (URF) agreed to take part; Abdelshafi in Juba declined, preferring further SPLM initiative; Abdel Wahid and Khalil Ibrahim of JEM conditioned participation. SAF moved out of south Sudan’s oil-producing areas 9 Jan, according to new agreement between SPLM and National Congress Party (NCP), although SPLM claims not all redeployment achieved. AU summit in Addis Ababa 25 Jan-2 Feb. Sudan initially submitted request to head AU despite failed bid in 2006 and 2007, but withdrew it 29 Jan.

• “Unkept promises in Darfur”, New York Times, 27 Jan. 2008.
• “Once again, Sudan shows its scorn for the world”, International Herald Tribune, 23 Jan. 2008.
• “Rebel positions bombed in West Darfur”, IRIN, 16 Jan. 2008.
• For background, see Crisis Group Africa Report N°134, Darfur’s New Security Reality, 26 Nov. 2007. 

SPLM returned to government of national unity (GNU) 27 December avoiding collapse of CPA, but clashes started along north-south border and fighting continued in Darfur. Combined Popular Defence Forces militia, government troops and Misseriya tribesmen reportedly clashed with SPLA 23-24 and 28 December in Southern Kordofan and Northern Bahr el-Ghazal. SPLM rejoined GNU after progress on some issues that triggered October 2007 withdrawal, though not Abyei. New list gives greater representation of SPLM in Khartoum: including minister of cabinet affairs and foreign minister. Regional dynamics shifted in Darfur as ex-Janjaweed leader, Ali Hamiti, defected from Khartoum, reportedly in alliance with SLA/Abdel Wahid and Khalil Ibrahim’s Justice and Equality Movement (JEM). In month JEM claimed victories against government troops in Kordofan and Suleia town, downing of government airplane, capture of SAF garrison outside el-Geneina, and claimed control of Chinese oil facility 11 December. Khartoum accused Chad of bombing in Darfur in cooperation with JEM attacks – denied by N’Djamena. Aid groups/NGOs said UN/AU peacekeeping force for Darfur (UNAMID) which took over from AU 1 January 2008, hampered by Khartoum and lack of logistical support; urged UNSC to impose targeted sanctions if situation continues. UNAMID continues to lack force capabilities, including 24 helicopters. U.S. diplomat John Granville murdered in Khartoum, 1 January.

• “Clashes kill dozens on Sudan north-south border”, Reuters, 30 Dec. 2007.
• “Southerners to take Sudan posts”, BBC, 27 Dec. 2007.
• “UN: Security Council should end Sudan’s obstruction”, Human Rights Watch, 19 Dec. 2007.
• For background, see Crisis Group Africa Report N°134, Darfur’s New Security Reality, 26 Nov. 2007.

North-South tension continued after SPLM’s October withdrawal from government of national unity. President Omar al-Bashir called for re-opening of training camps for “mujahideen” Popular Defence Forces militia, said not flexible on contested borders of oil-rich Abyei region and “NCP ready for war” 17 November; though 21 November stated commitment to dialogue to preserve national unity. SPLM gave 9 January 2008 deadline for resolution of several provisions in CPA – including Abyei protocol, redeployment of forces, border demarcation, population census, and transparency in oil sector. AU/UN mediated peace talks progressed to consultation phase with meetings in Darfur, Khartoum and Juba to bring boycotting factions into process. 6 SLA factions and 3 other groups signed Charter of Unification 13 November in Juba, and umbrella group URF (United Resistance Front) formed from 5 others, but key groups missing. Sirte talks due to restart in December but AU envoy, Salim Ahmed Salim, suggested possible delay to allow rebel unification. JEM rejected presence of 130 Chinese army engineers 24 November and accused Beijing of stoking Darfur crisis by supporting regime. Khartoum refused to agree on make-up of UNAMID force, rejecting Scandinavian unit, amongst others. URF claimed victory over Sudanese army and Janjaweed in 20 November clash; denied by government. 7 people reported killed at Medecins Sans Frontieres hospital in Bor 29 November as tribal pastoral conflict killing over 20 spilled over.

• “Sudan ‘blocking’ Darfur mission”, BBC, 28 Nov. 2007.
• “Warning of Darfur Arab rebellion”, BBC, 26 Nov. 2007.
• “Darfur rebel factions reunite under one banner”, Reuters, 13 Nov. 2007.

SPLM announced temporary suspension of participation in Government of National Unity (GNU) 11 October due to delays in CPA implementation. Issues include Abyei, oil revenue distribution, SAF’s full withdrawal from South and demarcation of N/S border. SPLM to rejoin GNU only when demands begin to be implemented - gave 9 January 2008 deadline. Move pulled international attention back to N/S issues ahead of 27 October Darfur peace talks in Sirte, Libya. Government announced unilateral ceasefire as talks began but main rebel factions JEM and SLA-Unity not among 6 groups represented. Talks adjourned 30 October to allow further consultations between mediators and rebel groups in Darfur before actual negotiations start. JEM attacked Chinese-run oil facility at Diffra in Kordofan (Abyei) 25 October. AU and UN investigated reports government troops and allied militias killed over 30 civilians in Muhagiriya, southern Darfur 8 October. UN reported hundreds forced out of refugee camp in Nyala, South Darfur by Sudanese soldiers and police 29 October. Khartoum said would not accept any Europeans in hybrid AU/UN Darfur force 27 October. UNSC extended mandate of UNMIS by 6 months, 31 October.

• “Struggle to salvage Darfur talks”, BBC, 29 Oct. 2007.
• “Pity the people of Darfur, pity the peacemakers too”, Economist, 25 Oct. 2007.
• “Reports of new massacre surface in Southern Darfur”, New York Times, 17 Oct. 2007.

Situation deteriorated on both north/south and Darfur fronts. Serious setback of Darfur peace process possible due to 29 September attack on AMIS base at Haskanita: 10 peacekeepers killed, 10 wounded, dozens reported missing; vehicles, weapons looted. Haskanita village earlier attacked by government forces mid-month. Non- (DPA) signatories, Sudan Liberation Army (SLA) Unity faction and Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) splinter accused of attack, no one claimed responsibility. Long-awaited negotiations between Khartoum and rebels due 27 October in Libya under AU/UN mediation in what is still seen as rare opportunity for progress, but prospects undermined by fighting between GoS and rebel groups, 29 September attack and divisions between rebel groups: Abdel Wahid continued to refuse to attend talks; JEM refused ceasefire before final agreement; SLA faction leader Ahmed Abdelshaafie asked for delay to better prepare. 2 rebel leaders also called for possible self-determination for Darfur. JEM and elements of Misseriya launched joint attack in Northern Kordofan earlier in month. DPKO planning for UNAMID deployment continued despite Khartoum’s refusal of night flights and airstrip repairs. AU and Sudan insist on all-African force but UN claims different expertise/assets required. Relations between NCP and SPLM also worsened, pushing fragile CPA even closer to collapse. Incidents included temporary siege by government forces of SPLA contingent in Muglad; escalated war rhetoric between political leadership; and raids on 3 SPLM offices by security services in Khartoum. UNSG Ban Ki-moon focused on Darfur, fragile CPA during 4-day visit; appointed Ashraf Qazi new UNMIS SRSG 11 September.

• “Aid officials fear Darfur raid may affect peacekeeping”, International Herald Tribune, 1 Oct. 2007.
• “UN will be ‘vigilant’ over Sudan’s compliance on Darfur: Ban”, AFP, 20 Sept. 2007.
• “Sudan in danger of reverting to north-south war”, Reuters, 13 Sept. 2007.
• For background, see Crisis Group Africa Report N°130, A Strategy for Comprehensive Peace in Sudan, 26 July 2007.

Composition of 26,000-strong UN/AU force (UNAMID), authorised 31 July, debated; after meeting with President Bashir, AU Chairperson Alpha Oumar Konare said non-Africans not required. U.S. Special Envoy Natsios expressed doubts over AU troop skill-level. 12 rebel groups attended 3-6 August Arusha talks with AU/UN mediators. Most significant absence was SLM faction leader Abdul Wahid. Though full rebel reunification not achieved, attendees reached “common platform” for final peace talks with government; mediators hoping for talks October. SPLM proposed 50/50 revenue sharing with NCP in oil-rich Abyei as interim measure; NCP rejected. Fighting between rival Arab tribes in Darfur continued: Rizeigat and Tarjum signed truce 11 August after clashes killed 140. Amnesty International reported 23 August Sudanese government deploying weapons to Darfur in defiance of arms embargo. UN human rights office 21 August accused government-allied forces of mass abduction and rape in South Darfur December. Khartoum expelled top Canadian and EU diplomats for “meddling in its affairs”, director of CARE for “espionage”. EU envoy returned following “apology”. UN Sec. Gen. to travel to region early September.

• "Stakes high for UN’s Ban on Africa tour", Reuters, 31 Aug. 2007.
• "African Union says outside troops are not needed as Darfur peacekeepers", AP, 12 Aug. 2007.
• For background, see Crisis Group Africa Report N°130, A Strategy for Comprehensive Peace in Sudan, 26 July 2007.

UN Security Council voted unanimously 31 July to begin sending joint UN/AU force of 26,000 troops and police to Darfur. Resolution 1769 includes Chapter VII mandate to justify use of force to protect civilians and gives command and control to UN; new UNAMID force to take command of region from 7,000-strong AU mission (AMIS) by end of year “at the latest”. But conflict threatens in north as hydro-electric dams displace communities and local resistance to projects becomes increasingly militant: Merowe dam contested mostly by Manassir tribe; Kajbar dam by Nubian community. Several violent clashes between Nubians and government reported. Merowe reservoir to be flooded in August which could displace as many as 70,000 who refuse to leave. Tripoli meeting on Darfur chaired by UN and AU 15 July agreed second phase of AU/UN road map to begin: pre-negotiation phase to create necessary conditions for full negotiations. AU/UN called for talks amongst Darfur rebels to start in Arusha 3 August. New movement, United Front for Liberation and Development (UFLD) consisting of 2 SLM factions, RDFF, NMRD and SFDA, announced intention to join. SLM faction leader Abdul Wahid refused to attend. CPA implementation fell further behind as 9 July deadline missed for all Sudanese SAF units to be redeployed from South and SPLA redeployed from North, save those operating in Joint-Integrated Units.

• “UN backs new Darfur peace force”, BBC, 1 August 2007
• “Darfur rebels to hold peace talks”, Guardian, 26 July 2007.
• “Stopping murder in Darfur”, Economist, 25 July 2007.
• For background, see Crisis Group Africa Report N°130, A Strategy for Comprehensive Peace in Sudan, 26 July 2007.

Small steps forward but no promise of short-term security improvement in Darfur. Khartoum agreed, again, to allow hybrid AU/UN force in Darfur after high-level meeting in Addis Ababa 11 and 12 June, reconfirmed following UN Security Council delegation visit 17 June. But UN command and control publicly rejected by President Bashir 19 June. New force would still not be operational until well into 2008. UN Special Envoy to Darfur Jan Eliasson outlined new 3-part AU/UN roadmap for Darfur to UNSC 8 June: convergence of initiatives under AU/UN lead; pre-negotiation on positions of Khartoum and non-signatories to Darfur Peace Agreement; and peace negotiations. Eliasson and AU Special Envoy Salim Salim aim for new negotiations by August. France hosted meeting of over 15 FMs from concerned countries 25 June but no significant progress. Oxfam announced permanent withdrawal from Gereida in Darfur, citing reluctance by authorities to improve security. SPLM initiative to unify Darfur rebel movements postponed as key groups refused to attend, and confusion within SPLM over who is invited. Other initiatives to unite Darfur rebels being pursued by Asmara and various NGOs. AU Peace and Security Council extended AMIS mandate until end of year 22 June. Sudanese presidential adviser, responsible for Darfur affairs, Majzoub al-Khalifa, killed in road accident 27 June.

• “Darfur tests new French resolve”, BBC, 26 June 2007.
• “Darfur rebels accuse Khartoum of attacks”, Mail & Guardian, 21 June 2007.
• “The oil factor”, Economist, 21 June 2007.
• For background, see Crisis Group Africa Report N°125, Darfur: Revitalising the Peace Process, 30 Apr. 2007.

U.S. President Bush imposed largely symbolic new unilateral economic sanctions on Sudan 29 May and sought support for international arms embargo in response to Khartoum’s refusal to end conflict in Darfur. UN and AU drafted plans for 23,000-strong hybrid force to be approved by UNSC and AU Peace and Security Committee. SPLM initiative to unite Darfur rebel groups given support by UN and AU envoys Jan Eliasson and Salim Ahmed Salim 10 May. Office of UN High Commission for Human Rights reported Sudanese security forces killed more than 100 in indiscriminate attacks on villages in south Darfur January-March. Eastern rebels finally agreed on list of 3 candidates for government posts to allow delayed October 2006 peace plan to go forward. Key national census, set for November, may be postponed to January/February 2008. NCP and SPLM engaged in high-level meetings on status of 2005 CPA implementation and their political partnership; Abyei and oil issues remain unresolved.

• “A little extra pressure”, Economist, 29 May 2007.
• “UN-AU draw up plans for large Darfur force”, Reuters, 25 May 2007.
• Comment by Pat Cox (Crisis Group), “Darfour : l’Europe doit agir”, Libération, 21 May 2007.
• Comment by Joschka Fischer (Crisis Group), “The EU must act in Darfur”, Haaretz, 12 May 2007.
• For background, see Crisis Group Africa Report N°125, Darfur: Revitalising the Peace Process, 30 Apr. 2007.

Government of Sudan agreed 16 April to “heavy support package” to allow up to 3000 UN personnel into Darfur to support 7000 AU troops there, but Khartoum continued to resist deployment of 20,000 AU/UN hybrid force. Agreed package includes attack helicopters and armoured personnel carriers. Agreement followed debate of increased sanctions, week of visits to Khartoum by Chinese envoy Zhai Jun, SA President Thabo Mbeki and U.S. Dep. Sec. State John Negroponte. China involvement deemed key, though Khartoum had already committed to deal last November. U.S. stated 23 April that Khartoum must agree to hybrid force in matter of weeks or face tougher economic sanctions. Existing UNMIS force given 6-month extension 30 April. 5 AU Senegalese peacekeepers killed near Chad border 1 April in deadliest attack since 2004 deployment; 2 further deaths saw deadliest month for AU. Senegal threatened 13 April to pull out 500-strong contingent unless support provided. Leaked UN report accused Khartoum of flying arms and equipment into Darfur, disguising planes as UN aircraft, in violation of arms embargo. Rebels reported government air strike against Jemmeiza village and further 73 killed in northern Darfur. Transitional Darfur Regional Authority inaugurated 24 April as step in implementation of 2006 Darfur Peace Agreement.

• “Too few, too late”, Economist, 19 Apr. 2007.
• “UN accuses Sudan over weapons”, BBC, 19 Apr. 2007.
• Crisis Group Africa Report N°125, Darfur: Revitalising the Peace Process, 30 April 2007.

Khartoum continued to increase forces in Darfur and block progress beyond phase 1 (light UN assistance program) of 3-phase plan for hybrid AU/UN deployment. Hundreds of government-backed militia amassed north Geneina, south west Darfur. Thousands displaced and up to 100 killed, after tribal clashes mid-February between 2 Arab tribes in south Darfur. AU/UN envoys stated rebel groups ready to abide by May 2006 peace deal, but factionalism remained barrier to effective negotiations: 19 February conference to unite disparate rebel groups postponed again with no set date to reconvene, while Libya/Eritrea-hosted meeting in Tripoli 21 February to discuss Eritrean mediation effort, attended by some rebel factions, Chadian President Deby and President Bashir. UNSG Ban Ki-moon condemned Bashir’s block on UN human rights Darfur mission, and EU resolution called for cessation of Chinese arms trade to Sudan, Chapter VII UN deployment in absence of Sudanese government agreement, no-fly zone, and sanctions including possible oil embargo. ICC Prosecutor presented evidence 27 February against current Sudanese state minister for humanitarian affairs, Ahmad Muhammad Harun, formerly minister for interior, and militia/Janjaweed leader Ali Kushayb, for war crimes and crimes against humanity carried out against civilian population in West Darfur 2003-2004.

• “Darfur: International Criminal Court Prosecutions Welcomed, Those Responsible Warned”, Crisis Group, 27 Feb. 2007.
• Comment by David Mozersky (Crisis Group), “Accountability in Darfur”, IWPR, 27 Feb. 2007.
• “Naming names”, Economist, 27 Feb. 2007.
• For background, see Crisis Group Africa Briefing N°43, Getting the UN into Darfur, 12 Oct. 2006.

Sudanese air force escalated bombing campaign in northern Darfur; government targeted possible sites of planned SLA field commanders’ conference after promising AU and UN to let conference go forward. Little progress with AU/UN 3-phase plan for Darfur: discussions on phase 2, heavy assistance package, delayed due to lack of enthusiasm amongst troop-contributing countries and delays for tripartite AU/UN/Sudan meeting; no progress with phase 3 (AU/UN hybrid force). UNSG Ban Ki-moon called on Khartoum to admit UN troops as part of hybrid force at AU summit. Relations between Khartoum and government of Southern Sudan at all-time low, with SPLM 1st Vice-President Salva Kiir and President Bashir trading blame for delays in CPA implementation. For second consecutive year, AU members rejected Sudan’s bid to chair organisation.

• Comment by Nick Grono and David Mozersky (Crisis Group), “Sudan and the ICC: A question of accountability”, openDemocracy, 31 Jan. 2007.
• “Darfur violence wrecks Sudan’s attempt to take AU leadership”, Guardian, 30 Jan. 2007.
• “U.S. urges Sudan to agree fully to Darfur plan”, Washington Post, 24 Jan. 2007.
• For background, see Crisis Group Africa Briefing N°43, Getting the UN into Darfur, 12 Oct. 2006.

Humanitarian and security situation deteriorated in Darfur while negotiations continued over deployment of strengthened peacekeeping force. In 23 December letter to UNSG Annan, President Omar al-Bashir stated acceptance of AU/UN 3-phase plan as “viable framework for peaceful settlement” to conflict in Darfur and called for “immediate” implementation. First phase - deployment of new staff and equipment to AU force - began 28 December, to be followed by larger support package. Uncertainty remains over third phase with al-Bashir saying size and command of new force should be determined by both AU and UN, and actual deployment by Tripartite Committee (AU, UN, Khartoum) effectively giving Sudan a veto. Earlier UK PM Blair gave support for sanctions, and enforced no-fly zone, should Khartoum reject 3-phase plan. Aid agencies warned attacks by armed militias in Darfur had destabilised region further and forced evacuation of up to 400 staff in December. AU Ceasefire Commission reported re-emergence of “re-supplied and rearmed” Janjaweed. UNSG Annan appointed former Swedish foreign minister Jan Eliasson as special envoy; UN Human Rights Council agreed to send team to investigate abuses. Situation stabilised in Malakal early December after late November clashes between SPLA and army.

• “Darfur conflict engulfs towns, threatens aid operation”, AlertNet, 31 Dec. 2006.
• “Sudan has accepted plan leading to hybrid UN-African Union mission in Darfur: Annan”, UN News, 27 Dec. 2006.
•  “AU reports Janjaweed come-back, identifies ceasefire breaches”, Monitor, 18 Dec. 2006.
• For background, see Crisis Group Africa Briefing N°43, Getting the UN into Darfur, 12 Oct. 2006.

Major fighting erupted in south between Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) and Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) in first major violation of 2005 north-south peace agreement. Fighting between SAF-aligned southern militia led by Maj Gen Gabriel Tang Ginye and SPLA escalated into major clashes between SAF and SPLA in Malakal, Upper Nile state 28 November: casualties reportedly in the hundreds. Calm restored to Malakal, following high-level interventions by SAF, SPLA and UN. Deterioration of security situation in Darfur continued as hopes raised by international talks with Khartoum, then ebbed with government backing away from agreement. UK, U.S., EU, China, Egypt, South Africa, Nigeria and Arab League met in Addis Ababa 16 November to discuss 3-phase plan. Khartoum agreed in principle to phases 1 and 2: light technical support to existing AU force, followed by heavy support including deployment of military, police and civilian personnel as well as possible aviation and logistical assets. AU and UN reported Khartoum also agreed, in principle, to “hybrid” AU/UN operation (Phase 3), pending clarification of force size. China reportedly encouraged Khartoum to accept plan. President Bashir later rejected hybrid force in preference for “African solution”, and claimed less than 9,000 have died in Darfur. SPLM called for UN force even without consent of Khartoum. U.S. and UK suggested 1 January deadline for Khartoum to consent to AU/UN hybrid plan, or face “tougher measures”. AU PSC met in Nigeria on 29 November, agreed to extend mandate of AU mission for another 6 months.

• “Calm after heavy fighting in southern town”, IRIN, 30 Nov. 2006.
• “UN expects plan on Darfur mission to advance”, International Herald Tribune, 28 Nov. 2006. 
• “ICC says Darfur evidence enough to prosecute”, Reuters, 23 Nov. 2006.
• Comment by John Prendergast (Crisis Group), “So how come we haven’t stopped it?”, Washington Post, 19 Nov. 2006.
• For background, see Crisis Group Africa Briefing N°43, Getting the UN into Darfur, 12 Oct. 2006.

Fierce fighting in north and south Darfur as Khartoum continued to pursue military solution to conflict. Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) suffered string of major defeats, and reportedly faced increased desertions during offensive against rebel National Redemption Front; UN Special Envoy Pronk expelled after blog comments noting SAF defeats and military’s low morale. Khartoum continued to reject deployment of UN forces as authorised by UN Security Council resolution 1706. Implementation of 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement continued to falter: NCP undermining progress on reorganisation of oil sector, delineation of North-South borders and issue of oil-rich Abyei area. SPLM public support for UN mission in Darfur further strained NCP-SPLM relations. Government of Southern Sudan facilitating negotiations in Juba between Ugandan government and Ugandan rebel LRA, but series of violent attacks killing over 40 civilians around Juba between 17-20 October and clashes between LRA and UPDF shook South. Peace agreement between government and Eastern Front rebels signed in Asmara 14 October after negotiations facilitated by Eritrea; provides for increased development aid to East and minimal power sharing for Eastern Front in national and regional governments.

• “Shameful evasions”, Guardian, 25 Oct. 2006.
• Comment by Dave Mozersky (Crisis Group) and Allan Rock, “Canada should lead in Darfur: ‘Responsibility to Protect’ more than a slogan”, Toronto Star, 24 Oct. 2006.
• Comment by Morton Abramowitz (Crisis Group), “A new tack on Darfur”, Washington Post, 22 Oct. 2006.
• “Armed group kills 42 civilians”, IRIN, 20 Oct. 2006.
• Comment by John Prendergast and Colin Thomas-Jensen (Crisis Group), “U.S. must crank up the heat on Khartoum”, Washington Post Online, 18 Oct. 2006.

• Getting the UN into Darfur, Crisis Group Africa Briefing N°43, 12 October 2006.

As UN human rights monitors reported worsening violence including government bombing of villages in north Darfur and continuing sexual violence against women, AU’s Peace and Security Council 20 September extended mandate of its peacekeeping force in Darfur (AMIS) until end 2006 - temporarily averting security vacuum. AU announced additional deployment of 4,000 troops: UN pledged further logistical and material support, Arab states pledged funding. President Bashir continued to reject UN force for Darfur, authorised by UNSC resolution 1706, but agreed to AMIS extension having previously given AU force departure ultimatum. In move likely to undercut urgent international calls (and Security Council resolution) for UN deployment, UN Special Envoy Pronk suggested international community should focus on AMIS reinforcement and extension given Khartoum’s position on UN force; also warned Darfur Peace Agreement in poor condition, and commission set up to monitor and implement accord dysfunctional. UN Deputy SG Malloch Brown also questioned efficacy of U.S. and UK “megaphone” diplomacy and veiled threats at Khartoum. Sudanese military intensified operations in north Darfur against National Redemption Front alliance, non-signatories of 5 May Darfur Peace Agreement. U.S. administration promised renewed attention to Darfur: new special envoy Andrew Natsios appointed and U.S. Sec. State Rice stated Khartoum failing to protect citizens. Asmara talks between Khartoum and Eastern Front rebels progressed with signing of draft security protocol 28 September.

•  “U.N. chief in Sudan says U.N. peacekeeping mission to Darfur unlikely, calls for strategy change”, International Herald Tribune, 29 Sept. 2006.
• Comment by John Prendergast (Crisis Group), “U.S.’s deadly errors in Darfur”, Philadelphia Inquirer, 14 Sept. 2006.
• Comment by Mark L. Schneider (Crisis Group), “The U.N.’s Darfur moment”, TomPaine.com, 6 Sept. 2006.
• For background, see Crisis Group Africa Briefing N°39, Darfur’s Fragile Peace Agreement, 20 June 2006.

Sudanese military launched strike 29 August on Darfur rebel groups not party to May Darfur Peace Agreement. Reports indicated government offensive drove back rebels from Kulkul 29 August as Khartoum continued to build military presence in North Darfur. UN Security Council voted 31 August to approve force for Darfur with some Chapter VII powers, “inviting” consent from Khartoum. Sudanese approval nonetheless considered prerequisite for deployment; President Bashir continued to reject any UN force for Darfur and Sudan refused to attend UNSC discussions on the issue prior to vote, pointing to plan for its own force of 12,000 new troops. Resolution does authorise existing UNMIS force to provide support to cash-strapped AU force already in Darfur, whose mandate currently expires end September. Minni Minnawi, leader of rebel SLA faction that signed the May peace deal and now fighting alongside government forces, appointed senior assistant to President Bashir. Chronic insecurity continued: UN official Jan Egeland called situation worst since 2004; WFP said 500,000 cut off from food aid. Relations between Khartoum and Chad improved as border opened and diplomatic ties re-established. Asmara talks between Khartoum and Eastern Front rebels led to agreement for more regional development.

• “Shaky Darfur peace at risk as new fighting looms”, New York Times, 31 Aug. 2006.
• “Former Darfur rebel leader named presidential assistant”, IRIN, 7 Aug. 2006.
• For background, see Crisis Group Africa Briefing N°39, Darfur’s Fragile Peace Agreement, 20 June 2006.

Implementation of 5 May Darfur Peace Agreement (DPA) at standstill, while rebels’ split over DPA deepened and infighting increased. Sudanese military reported to be supporting attacks by SLA Minnawi faction, only group to sign DPA, against newly formed National Redemption Front (NRF) rebel group (Chad-backed alliance of JEM and other signatories). Abdel Wahid replaced by Abdel Shafi as head of splinter SLA faction, may ally with NRF. Government and Janjaweed militias attacked NRF bases in Jebel Moon and Kulkul despite ceasefire in west, displacing hundreds. NRF attack on Hamrat al-Sheikh in North Kordofan killed 12, fueled fear Darfur conflict could spread across Sudan. AU agreed to extend AMIS mandate to end 2006; donors later pledged $220 million, mostly in kind, to keep beleaguered mission alive. Donors continued to push UN re-hatting; UNSG Annan suggested 31 July UN force of 24,000: rejected by Khartoum. U.S. President Bush met with both Minnawi and VP Kiir to discuss peace processes in South and Darfur. In South, 15 killed in Rubkona in clashes between Sudanese army and SPLA 22 July. CPA Assessment and Evaluation Commission reported lack of progress implementing agreement, particularly in oil-rich Abyei. Up to 70 killed in inter-clan fighting in Lakes state over access to water and pasture. In east, second round peace talks mediated by Eritrea began between government and East Sudan Front rebels.

• Comment by Nick Grono (Crisis Group), “Sudan: confronting the atrocities in Darfur”, allAfrica.com, 26 July 2006.
• “Tension in southern town after soldiers rampage”, IRIN, 19 July 2006.
• Comment by John Prendergast (Crisis Group), “A dying deal in Darfur”, Boston Globe, 13 July 2006.
• “Sudan military reported to be aiding rebel attacks”, AlertNet, 12 July 2006.
• For background, see Crisis Group Africa Briefing N°39, Darfur’s Fragile Peace Agreement, 20 June 2006.

Implementation of Darfur Peace Agreement (DPA) faltered as rebel divisions widened. Members of SLA Minawi faction announced suspension of DPA implementation, suggesting tacit split with Minawi ahead of his delegation’s visit to Khartoum for talks. Violent clashes between SLA factions further hindered Darfur humanitarian access. Joint commission inaugurated to monitor DPA ceasefire, but no action taken. President Bashir continued to refuse “colonial” UN Darfur peacekeeping mission, suggested alternate Sudanese force. UNSG Annan to press matter at AU Summit 1 July, but other UN official said no force feasible before January 2007. ICC lead prosecutor announced compilation of “Darfur crimes database”, said will prosecute “large-scale atrocities”; Sudan claimed ICC has no jurisdiction. South Sudan President Machar continued to arrange peace talks between Uganda and LRA rebels, as alleged LRA attack on Juba killed 9. In east, Khartoum signed ceasefire pact 19 June and agreed to July talks with Eastern Front rebels demanding greater autonomy.

• “The dying Darfur Peace Agreement”, ISN, 29 June 2006.
• Comment by Colin Thomas-Jensen (Crisis Group), “Real peace in Sudan”, TomPaine.com, 19 June 2006.
• Comment by John Prendergast (Crisis Group), “Sudan: Divide and destroy in Darfur”, AllAfrica.com, 7 June 2006.

Under intense international pressure, government and largest SLA rebel faction led by Minawi signed Darfur Peace Agreement 5 May in Abuja. Plan calls for creation of temporary regional authority with rebel participation, Janjaweed disarmament, incorporation of rebels into army and Sudanese government funds for reconstruction and compensation. But SLA faction headed by Abdel Wahid and smaller JEM rebel group refused to sign, despite AU urging to do so by 31 May or face possible sanctions. UN Security Council unanimously passed 16 May resolution under Chapter VII supporting peace plan and created team to assess transfer of AU mission to UN, despite Khartoum’s ongoing opposition to UN force. Violent demonstrations by refugees protesting agreement and calling for international protection: AU interpreter killed during UN humanitarian chief Egeland visit to Kalma camp, South Darfur. Rebels accused government of attacking villages in South Darfur, killing dozens. In southeastern state Jonglei, several killed in clashes between SPLA and armed civilians of Lou Nuer community over forced disarmament.

• “Split between rebels undercuts Darfur pact”, International Herald Tribune, 31 May 2006.
• Comment by Suliman Baldo (Crisis Group), “Darfur’s peace plan: The view from the ground”, openDemocracy, 24 May 2006.
• For background on Darfur, see Crisis Group Africa Report N°106, Sudan’s Comprehensive Peace Agreement: The Long Road Ahead, 31 Mar. 2006.

Severe insecurity in Darfur continued, spilling over into Chad: latter cut off diplomatic ties after 13 April Chadian rebel attack on N’Djamena, claiming Khartoum support. Janjaweed militias raided refugee camps inside Chadian border. 48-hour extension given after 30 April deadline at Abuja peace talks passed without deal: government agreed to sign AU-backed agreement, but SLA/JEM rebels rejected plan, failing to find common position. Relations with UN worsened after Sudan denied humanitarian affairs chief Jan Egeland and, separately, UN military assessment team permission to visit Darfur. UN Security Council imposed sanctions on 4 Sudanese individuals held responsible for atrocities in Darfur; while UNSC committee recommended extending sanctions and instituting no-fly zone. Al-Qaeda head bin Laden threatened war against international community in Darfur. In continued violence in south, 15 killed in clashes between SSDF militia and SPLM forces; SSDF in-fighting killed 32. In eastern Kassala, rebels attacked government positions, killing 8; Khartoum asked Eritrea to mediate.

• “AU mediator describes draft, pushes rebels to conclude”, Sudan Tribune, 1 May 2006.
• “Fears of new govt offensive in South Darfur”, IRIN, 27 Apr. 2006.
• Comment by Wesley Clark and John Prendergast (Crisis Group), “A US plan for Darfur”, Boston Globe, 10 Apr. 2006.
• For background on Darfur, see Crisis Group Africa Report N°105, To Save Darfur, 17 Mar. 2006; on South Sudan, see Africa Report N°106, Sudan’s Comprehensive Peace Agreement: The Long Road Ahead, 31 Mar. 2006.

AU extended peacekeeping mission until 30 September and “in principle” accepted transfer of operation to UN. Sudanese government maintained opposition to re-hatting: President al-Bashir said AU did not need foreign assistance at Arab Summit 28 March, but First Vice President Kiir stated UN troops could enter if had clear mandate. UN Security Council asked UNSG Annan to expedite planning for transfer of mission. AU also endorsed plan to deploy military observers to increasingly volatile Chad/Sudan border. Seventh round of Darfur peace talks threatened by rebel in-fighting and continued clashes in Darfur. Faction of SLA rebels renounced leader el-Nur, but AU maintained both el-Nur and Minawi as SLM/A representatives in talks. AU proposed placing rival forces in Darfur behind buffer zones to demilitarise humanitarian supply routes and camps for IDPs. In south, government-allied militia killed 12 SPLA soldiers in ambush near Abyei, while UN buildings in Yambio and Yei attacked by alleged Ugandan LRA rebels. Grenade attack 12 March killed 4 in Massala, eastern Sudan.

• Comment by John Prendergast and Colin Thomas-Jensen (Crisis Group), “Matching rhetoric with action in Darfur”, allAfrica.com, 17 Mar. 2006.
• “African mediation maintains SLM’s Nour in spite of latest rebels split”, Sudan Tribune, 10 Mar. 2006.

UN Security Council authorised planning for expected re-hatting of AU mission in Darfur to UN mission, despite strong objections from Khartoum; resolution expected March after AU makes final decision on handover. UNSG Annan asked U.S. President Bush for greater U.S. role in Darfur; Bush called for doubling of international troops and role for NATO in planning and logistics. Little progress in Darfur peace talks with continued insecurity on ground. UK FM Straw warned would consider UN sanctions if no headway made. Sudan and Chad signed agreement in Libya to end cross-border dispute, committing to preventing presence of rebels on other’s territory. UN expert panel recommended Security Council extend arms embargo; discussions on sanctions for individuals seen to be blocking peace process continued. 7 killed in clashes between South Sudan Defence Forces and SPLA in Upper Nile region. Eastern Front rebels indefinitely postponed peace talks with government.

• “Sudan leader warns against UN force”, Al Jazeera, 27 Feb. 2006.
• “Bush calls for more muscle in Darfur”, Washington Post, 18 Feb. 2006.
• Comment by Jack Straw, “Stop the killing, or pay the price”, International Herald Tribune, 17 Feb. 2006.
• For background, see Crisis Group Africa Report N°102, Sudan: Saving Peace in the East, 5 Jan. 2006.

Continuing insecurity in Darfur threatened peace talks while UN announced probable re-hatting of AU mission. African leaders said would welcome UN support if mission African-led. UN-appointed expert panel recommended Security Council impose sanctions on those accused of blocking Darfur peace process. 2 main Darfur rebel groups, SLA faction led by Minni Minawi and JEM, agreed 20 January to combine political and military forces in joint “Allied Revolutionary Forces of Western Sudan”. Security situation in Darfur remained volatile: UNSG Annan condemned major fighting in Jebel Marra region, including SLA attack on Golo. UN reduced staff near Chadian border, following buildup of forces in region and rising tensions between Sudan and Chad. In East, crisis temporarily averted as government forces withdrew after clashing with Eastern Front troops in SPLA and Eastern Front-held Hamashkoreb; talks to resolve situation to be held in February. Khartoum hosted AU summit dominated by controversy over 2006 chair: Republic of Congo president chosen over Sudan’s due to fears of human rights record harming AU credibility.

• “U.S.: Push for strong UN force in Darfur”, Joint statement by Crisis Group and Human Rights Watch, 1 Feb. 2006.
• Comment by Kofi Annan, “Darfur descending”, The Washington Post, 25 Jan. 2006.
• “Darfur rebels’ merger puts talks at the crossroad - analyst”, Sudan Tribune, 23 Jan. 2006.
• For background, see Crisis Group Africa Report N°99, The EU/AU Partnership in Darfur: Not Yet a Winning Combination, 25 Oct. 2005; and Briefing N°32, Unifying Darfur’s Rebels: A Prerequisite for Peace, 6 Oct. 2005.

Situation in Darfur became increasingly hostile to humanitarian efforts. AU-sponsored peace talks, which resumed end November after Darfur rebels agreed to present unified front, showed little substantive progress. UN grounded aid flights and evacuated workers in response to government-backed militia and Sudanese army attacks in western and southern Darfur that displaced 7,000 Darfuris; rebels killed 20 in retaliatory attacks. Clashes between Arab nomad communities over local resources killed 60, adding to Darfur insecurity. Tensions increased with Chad, which accused Sudan of supporting Chadian rebels’ attack on its security forces near border. International Criminal Court Prosecutor Luis Moreno Ocampo proceeded with investigation into Darfur atrocities, despite ban by Sudanese government from entering region. Southern Sudan constitution signed into law 5 December in important step for implementation of January 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement.

• “UN warns of growing catastrophe in Sudan”, Sudan Tribune (Financial Times), 31 Dec. 2005.
• “Darfur negotiators meet on row over power, wealth sharing”, Sudan Tribune, 9 Dec. 2005.
• For background, see Crisis Group Africa Report N°99, The EU/AU Partnership in Darfur: Not Yet a Winning Combination, 25 Oct. 2005; and Briefing N°32, Unifying Darfur’s Rebels: A Prerequisite for Peace, 6 Oct. 2005.

Situation in Darfur remained dire. New round of AU-sponsored talks postponed until 29 November “for logistical reasons”; growing rifts in main Darfur rebel group Sudan Liberation Army (SLA) believed reason for delay. Secretary-General Minnawi elected new SLA president 3 November during Unity Conference boycotted by current President El-Nur. AU and U.S. mediators pressed SLA to resolve internal disputes: factions agreed on common position before resumption of Abuja talks. UNSG Annan warned Darfur descending into complete lawlessness: clashes in south displaced 15,000, while 62 Justice and Equality Movement rebels killed in attacks involving SLA and armed tribesmen. Rebel National Movement for Reform and Development demanded to participate in peace talks after attacking West Darfur town 29 November, killing 37. Fighting in Western Equatoria state between Dinka and Zande tribes left several dead and forced humanitarian agencies to evacuate.

• “Darfur rebels ‘united’ for talks”, BBC, 29 Nov. 2005.
• “Withdraw support from the despot of Darfur”, The Daily Star, 15 Nov. 2005.
• For background, see Crisis Group Africa Report N°99, The EU/AU Partnership in Darfur: Not Yet a Winning Combination, 25 Oct. 2005; and Briefing N°32, Unifying Darfur’s Rebels: A Prerequisite for Peace, 6 Oct. 2005.

Rebel disunity, growing violence and deteriorating Sudan-AU relations marred sixth round of AU-mediated Darfur talks; next round due 20 November. Sudan Liberation Army (SLA) president refused to attend conference to resolve internal splits. Darfur security severely deteriorated: UN Security Council condemned deaths of 4 AU peacekeepers and 2 contractors in SLA ambush; breakaway faction of rebel Justice and Equality Movement kidnapped but later released 38 AU workers; 34 aid workers taken hostage by refugees 25 October but later freed in Kalma camp; SLA-Sudanese army clashes killed 5 civilians North Darfur. UN to evacuate non-essential staff in response to violence. South Sudan formed autonomous government 22 October, including wife of late SPLM rebel leader John Garang.

•  “Darfur rebels’ unity talks falter”, BBC, 29 Oct. 2005.
•  “Sudan, rebels wrap up round of peace talks”, CNN (AP), 20 Oct. 2005.
• “Chaos spreads in embattled Darfur”, International Herald Tribune, 19 Oct. 2005.

New national unity cabinet sworn in 22 September; President al-Bashir’s ruling National Congress Party, fronting for Sudan’s hard-line Islamist movement, retained key ministries including defence and energy; former rebel Sudan People’s Liberation Movement given foreign ministry. South’s legislature officially inaugurated 29 September. Sixth round of Darfur peace talks between Sudanese government and 2 Darfur rebel groups opened mid-month in Nigeria. But violence spreading and clashes between government forces and rebels could jeopardise talks: Arab militias killed 34 in attack on refugee camp North Darfur; government threatened retaliation after Sudan Liberation Army (SLA) rebels overran South Darfur town of Sheiria 20 September; attack by Arab nomads killed 40 in retaliation for August SLA raid. NATO agreed to extend mission to airlift AU troops to Darfur by month. UN Security Council extended UNMIS mandate to March 2006.

• “Discord in eastern Sudan threatens the peace accord with the south”, The Economist, 29 Sept. 2005.
• “Sudan swears in unity government”, BBC, 22 Sept. 2005.
• For background, see Crisis Group Africa Report N°96, The Khartoum-SPLM Agreement: Sudan’s Uncertain Peace, 25 July 2005, and Crisis Group Africa Briefing N°30, Garang’s Death: Implications for Peace in Sudan, 9 August 2005.

Despite untimely death of John Garang - leader of southern Sudanese People’s Liberation Movement and new Sudanese first vice-president - country’s fragile peace held. At least 130 killed in 3 days of violence in Khartoum and Juba beginning of month; thousands arrested. In relatively smooth succession, Salva Kiir, Garang’s long-time deputy, sworn in as new vice-president 11 August; pledged national unity and full implementation of North-South Comprehensive Peace Agreement. Riek Machar, member of Nuer ethnic group, made vice-president of southern administration, raising hopes for agreement with government-aligned South Sudan Defence Force militia. Full new government to be announced early September. In Darfur, Sudan Liberation Movement rebel group called off AU-backed peace talks planned for late August; rescheduled for mid-September. AU warned of $173m funding shortfall for Darfur mission; UN Sec. Gen. urged mission be rapidly brought to full strength.

• Comment by John Prendergast and Colin Thomas-Jensen (Crisis Group), “Off camera, Darfur deteriorates”, The Boston Globe, 30 Aug. 2005.
• Comment by Wesley Clark (Crisis Group Board), “NATO Forces needed in Darfur”, NPR “Morning Edition”, 22 Aug. 2005.
• “Darfur's peacekeeping challenge”, BBC, 21 Aug. 2005.
• Comment by John Prendergast and David Mozersky (Crisis Group), “A warrior and peacemaker”, The Wall Street Journal Europe, 3 Aug. 2005
• For background, see Crisis Group Africa Report N°96, The Khartoum-SPLM Agreement: Sudan’s Uncertain Peace, 25 July 2005, and Crisis Group Africa Briefing N°28, The AU’s Mission in Darfur: Bridging the Gaps, 6 July 2005.

Leader of Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM), John Garang, killed in helicopter crash 30 July, leading to Khartoum riots and fears of serious disruption to implementation of January north-south peace agreement. Month began on high with ratification of new constitution 6 July and swearing-in of government of national unity 9 July with 52% of executive posts for ruling National Congress Party (NCP) and 28% for SPLM; Garang had become first vice-president. Newly-released PNC leader Hassan al-Turabi said group would protest NCP-SPLM division of power and warned of national “disintegration”. In Darfur, violence spiked at month end; 7 civilians killed in unconfirmed helicopter attack and 4 troops killed by rebels. U.S. Sec. State Rice, on visit to Khartoum, called for “action not words” from government. Earlier in month Sudan Liberation Movement, Justice and Equality Movement and government agreed ground rules for Abuja peace talks; meetings to reconvene 24 August.

• “Violence breaks out as Sudanese vice president's death is confirmed”, International Herald Tribune, 1 August 2005.
• Comment by David Mozersky (Crisis Group), “EU must let NATO halt Darfur's nightly terror”, The European Voice, 7 July 2005.
• Comment by John Norris (Crisis Group), “Americans grasp crisis in Sudan”, The Baltimore Sun, 6 July 2005.
• For background, see Crisis Group Africa Briefing N°26, Do Americans Care about Darfur? An International Crisis Group/Zogby International Opinion Survey, 1 June 2005.

Non-Arab Beja Congress launched offensive around Tokar, 120km south Port Sudan, 19 June, bringing violence to eastern Sudan. Sudanese government said Darfur’s Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) and Eritrea backing rebels. Government allegedly responded with air attacks in east. Beja Congress said would consider talks if government released prisoners and undertook independent investigation into January 2005 Port Sudan deaths. Separately, AU-backed Abuja talks between JEM and SLA rebels and Sudanese government began 10 June; talks deadlocked over basic principles, presence of Chadian mediators and rivalries within SLA and JEM. ICC announced investigations into Darfur crimes, prompting Khartoum response that Sudanese courts would deal with any allegations. Draft interim constitution based on Naivasha north-south peace accord agreed by multi-party constitutional commission 26 June; text remains to be approved by parliament and SPLM. Sadiq al-Mahdi, leader of Umma opposition party, said would boycott power-sharing government due to begin July. Hassan al-Turabi, political rival of president, released from prison ahead of power-sharing.

• “Rebels claim Sudanese government is bombing east”, Voice of America, 24 June 2005.
• “Darfur talks inch forward, Chad dispute remains”, The Sudan Tribune (Reuters), 25 June 2005.
• Comment by Gareth Evans (Crisis Group), “Bridging the gap in Darfur”, Wall Street Journal Europe, 6 June 2005.
• For background, see Crisis Group Africa Briefing N°24, A New Sudan Action Plan, 26 April 2005.

On Darfur, 26 May AU/UN Pledging Conference in Addis Ababa saw $292m (including $134m from Canada) committed to expansion of AU mission (AMIS) to 7,700 by September; NATO agreed to provide logistical support, but discounted possible military presence. UNSG Kofi Annan subequently travelled to Khartoum, Darfur and Rumbek urging stronger civilian-protection mandate for AMIS, and expressing concern over funding for implementation of north-south peace. AU-sponsored peace talks Darfur rebels to resume 10 June; insecurity ongoing but delivery of humanitarian aid improving. Sporadic violence elsewhere: 75 killed and 4,000 displaced in clan violence southern Lakes state; 30 died in resettlement riots in Soba Eradi IDP camp south of Khartoum; 5,000 displaced by Ugandan Lord’s Resistance Army raids. Eastern Front rebels threatened uprising eastern Sudan and kidnapped 3 ruling party politicians near Eritrean border 24 May. Conference organised between government and eastern parties resulted in $88m aid promise to Red Sea state over 3 years. 2 international aid workers arrested - both subsequently released - in attempt to silence NGO criticism of human rights abuse. Government confirmed Sudan’s rejection of ICC referrals and stated plan for Sudanese court.

• “Sudan holds second aid worker”, The Guardian, 1 June 2005.
• “UN chief calls for more authority for African peacekeepers”, The Sudan Tribune (AP), 29 May 2005.
• “Darfur needs bolder international intervention”, Crisis Group media release, 22 May 2005.
• “Policemen, IDPs killed in clashes over forced relocation”, IRIN, 19 May 2005.
• For background, see Crisis Group Africa Briefing N°24, A New Sudan Action Plan, 26 April 2005.

North-south peace fragile. Opening of National Constitutional Review Commission, planned to conclude by late March, delayed by opposition objections over allocation of seats; Commission to draft post-Naivasha interim constitution. Concern grew over southern militia groups, potentially peace spoilers; most failed to attend Nairobi “south-south dialogue” meeting with SPLA 18-21 April; all major southern political opposition groups attended. $4.5 billion development aid, mostly for southern Sudan, pledged at Oslo donors’ meeting, though fears remained over absorptive capacity of southern institutions; U.S. and Germany linked assistance to progress on Darfur. Situation in Darfur remains serious: ongoing insecurity hindering aid delivery; 17 killed in torching of village near Nyala 7 April and numerous Janjaweed attacks. Fifth round of AU-backed peace talks planned for early May in Abuja; SPLA leader John Garang said would attend. Government earlier held talks with smaller National Movement for Reform and Development rebel group in Chad. First UN peacekeeping contingent arrived southern Sudan; main force expected to begin deployment May. In positive move, AU said would increase Darfur peace monitoring force to 7,700 by September. UN passed names of 51 suspected of Darfur war crimes to ICC following March referral.

• “Big boost to Darfur peace force”, BBC, 29 Apr. 2005.
• “In Sudan, the daily battle to provide aid”, The Washington Post, 25 Apr. 2005.
• “Concerns over slow implementation of southern peace accord”, IRIN, 15 Apr. 2005.
• “War-torn Sudan wins pledges of $4.5bn in aid”, The Guardian, 13 Apr. 2005.
• For background, see Crisis Group Africa Report N°89, Darfur: The Failure to Protect, 8 Mar. 2005.

UN Security Council voted to strengthen Darfur arms embargo and impose asset freeze and travel ban on those deemed to impede peace – application to begin within 30 days. U.S. backed down from threat to veto resolution on referral of Darfur war crimes to ICC, having obtained immunity guarantees for U.S. staff. But situation in Darfur remained grim. UN said refugee crisis contained, but violence ongoing; pulled staff out of most of western Darfur following threats from Janjaweed militia; and raised its mortality estimates from 70,000 to at least 180,000, while accepting true figure might be higher. Security Council voted 24 March to send 10,000 troops and 700 civilians as peacekeeping mission in southern Sudan amidst fears over stalling implementation of north-south Naivasha peace. Mission also set to “foster peace in Darfur”.

• “U.N. Security Council refers Darfur to the ICC”, Human Rights Watch press release, 31 Mar. 2005.
• “10,000-strong UN peacekeeping mission authorized for South”, UN News, 24 Mar. 2005.
• "Militia movements reportedly fuelling tension in the east”, IRIN, 11 Mar. 2005. 
• “Darfur's hunger set to continue”, BBC, 11 Mar. 2005.
• Comment by Don Cheadle and John Prendergast (Crisis Group), “’Never again’ – again”, USA Today, 2 Mar. 2005.
• For background, see Crisis Group Africa Briefing N°19, Sudan’s Dual Crises: Refocusing on IGAD, 5 Oct. 2004.

Situation in Darfur remained dire, with inadequate international response. Long-awaited UN commission concluded atrocity crimes had been committed in Darfur, but insufficient evidence of genocide; named 51 war crimes suspects and urged referral to International Criminal Court (ICC). U.S. resisted referral, preferring to finance addition to Tanzania-based International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda; EU and others said ad hoc courts overstretched and time-limited, and urged U.S. to abstain on Security Council vote. Breaches of ceasefire ongoing with rebel attacks - leading to possible exclusion of Justice and Equality Movement rebels from future talks - and continued government and militia attacks. N’djamena Joint Ceasefire Commission suggested AU-backed talks could recommence mid-March; Sudan Liberation Movement called for enforcement of no-fly zone and government withdrawal from captured areas as precondition; Vice President Taha said Sudanese forces withdrawing from western Darfur. Meanwhile, UN said up to 4 million may soon be in need of famine relief. Following January north-south peace accord, discussions continued on 10,000-strong UN peacekeeping force to be deployed southern Sudan within 6 months.

• “New atrocities as Security Council dithers”, Human Rights Watch press release, 25 Feb. 2005.
• “Darfur rebels ambush Sudanese troops; govt bombs villages”, The Sudan Tribune, 23 Feb. 2005.
• “U.S. proposal for a Darfur tribunal: not an effective option to ensure justice”, Human Rights Watch, 16 Feb. 2005.
• Comment by Gareth Evans (Crisis Group), “Genocide or crime? Actions speak louder than words in Darfur”, The European Voice, 18 Feb. 2005.
• Comment by John Prendergast (Crisis Group) and Don Cheadle, “Seven deadly trends in Darfur”, The Washington Times, 10 Feb. 2005.
• For background, see Crisis Group Africa Briefing N°19, Sudan’s Dual Crises: Refocusing on IGAD, 5 Oct. 2004.

North/South -- Formal signing of Naivasha deal 9 January. UN Security Council expressed hope deal could be step towards resolving Darfur situation, with formation of Khartoum coalition government, decentralisation and interim constitution. Discussion on UN monitoring force in south and central Sudan - to number up to 10,000 - underway. EU unfroze development aid to Sudan 25 January. In further positive development, opposition umbrella group National Democratic Alliance (NDA) signed political agreement with government to reintegrate NDA and lift state of emergency in force since 1989. Meanwhile, at least 20 killed in Beja protest for greater autonomy Port Sudan following demands for greater power and wealth-sharing on Naivasha lines; state governor later said some demands could be met after April implementation of north-south peace.

• “Protesters die in Sudan clashes”, BBC, 29 Jan. 2005.
• “Guns stop ‘crying’ in southern Sudan”, The Washington Post, 24 Jan. 2005.
• “Elements of comprehensive peace agreement”, Institute for Security Studies.
• For background, see Crisis Group Africa Briefing N°19, Sudan’s Dual Crises: Refocusing on IGAD, 5 Oct. 2004.

Darfur -- Insecurity continued with multiple ceasefire breaches and intensified government security operations. U.S. proposal for UN sanctions to reflect crisis rejected by China and Russia 25 January; UN Secretary General Kofi Annan, speaking at African Union Abuja summit, said sanctions should remain option. WHO suggested humanitarian crisis may be easing, but violence continued, with fighting in West Darfur, razing of several villages South Darfur and 105 killed in Hamada town in government operation. Government aerial attack killed 100 in Shangil Tobaya town 26 January drawing sharp international criticism. AU said monitors initially prevented from investigating. Negotiations between main rebel groups and government slated for February. Long-awaited UN commission of enquiry concluded state-sponsored genocide had not taken place in Darfur, but cited multiple abuses of international humanitarian law. U.S. and EU continued to disagree on possible UN Security Council referral of crimes to International Criminal Court.

• “U.N. panel finds no genocide in Darfur but urges tribunals”, The Washington Post, 1 Feb. 2005.
• “Fresh wave of deadly clashes in Sudan’s Darfur region – UN”, UN News, 26 Jan. 2005.
• “Targeting the Fur: Mass killings in Darfur”, Human Rights Watch briefing paper, 24 Jan. 2005.
• For background, see Crisis Group Africa Briefing N°19, Sudan’s Dual Crises: Refocusing on IGAD, 5 Oct. 2004.

Final peace agreement ending 20-year civil war between government and southern Sudan People’s Liberation Army rebels signed Naivasha 31 December. But Darfur situation continued to slide: UN Secretary-General said international approach “not working”; U.S. President Bush signed law enabling sanctions. On-off peace talks Abuja ended with agreement to reconvene January 2005 and temporary ceasefire. However, fighting continued, cutting off humanitarian supplies from civilian population. Fighting around Nyala and Labado, south Darfur, forced suspension of relief, while Save the Children suspended operations after 2 separate incidents killed 3 aid workers. Previously unknown rebel group based neighbouring Kordofan state launched 18 December attack on oil installation, citing marginalisation from peace process. Same group claimed responsibility for attack on Gbubeish 27 December; World Food Programme suspended relief convoys to 260,000 as result. Head of African Union (AU) monitoring mission claimed weapons’ inflow made situation “time bomb”; only 1 third of AU mission deployed.

• “Sudanese leaders, southern rebels finish peace deal”, The Washington Post, 1 Jan. 2005.
• “UN agency suspends food convoys to Darfur, Sudan after rebels attack town”, UN News, 28 Dec. 2004.
• “Sudan’s Darfur talks suspended, both sides vow to stop fighting”, IRIN, 22 Dec. 2004.
• “Darfur: What hope for the future?”, Amnesty International report, 16 Dec. 2004.
• For background, see Crisis Group Africa Briefing, Sudan’s Dual Crises: Refocusing on IGAD, 5 Oct. 2004.

Despite positive movement on IGAD-backed peace-talks between government and southern Sudan People’s Liberation Army rebels (with Security Council urging conclusion and parties signing memorandum 19 November agreeing to finalise peace modalities by year-end) month of increasing violence in Darfur and failing international response; at least 1.5 million now displaced and over 70,000 killed. UN envoy Jan Pronk said current African Union (AU) protection force insufficient. But UN Security Council meeting Nairobi 17-18 November backtracked on previous warnings to Sudanese government on Darfur, while UN position towards rebels hardened in face of declining security. AU-backed Darfur negotiations between government and 2 rebel groups resulted in Abuja protocols 9 November, including Darfur no-fly zone; protocols disregarded with ongoing government bombing campaign and accusations of ceasefire breaches on both sides. Having previously attacked Kalma and Geraida, 100 rebels stormed Tawilla 22 November. UN warned security situation disrupting humanitarian aid, with 300,000 cut off. Sides blamed each other for police station attacks northern Darfur. Assault on El Geer refugee camp by Sudanese police 10 November deemed “unacceptable” by U.S. Sec. State Colin Powell.

• “Sudan reprieves aid chiefs in expulsion row”, The Guardian, 30 Nov. 2004
• “U.S. ambassador upbraids UN over inaction on Sudan”, International Herald Tribune, 25 Nov. 2004.
• “Darfur in the UN's geopolitical calculus”, The Sudan Tribune, 23 Nov. 2004.
• “Government, SPLM/A sign memorandum of understanding”, IRIN, 19 Nov. 2004.
• “If we return we will be killed”, Human Rights Watch report, Nov. 2004.
• For background, see ICG Africa Briefing, Sudan's Dual Crises: Refocusing on IGAD, 5 Oct. 2004.

Diplomatic manoeuvring over Darfur crisis continued. Sudan accepted African Union (AU) force expansion 1 October; negotiations on mandate and size resulted in 20 October announcement of force of 3,320, including 815 police, with monitoring and monitor-protection role. Government of Sudan retained primary security responsibility, disappointing hopes for more pro-active AU role. EU to bear half $220 million cost. Billeting problems and political disagreements likely to slow deployment, planned for completion within 3 months; Sudan refused entry to 237 Rwandan AU soldiers on U.S. planes 25 October. Parallel AU-backed government and Darfur rebel talks on Security Arrangements and political issues began Abuja 25 October; divisions between rebel groups threatened break-up of talks. Summit between Chad, Egypt, Libya, Nigeria and Sudan rejected “foreign intervention” 17 October. Aid convoy attacked 6 October and 2 aid workers killed by landmine 10 October in attacks attributed to 2 new Darfur militias. Meanwhile, rebel group emerged neighbouring West Kordofan seeking changes to Naivasha accords between government and southern SPLA insurgents. Final government/SPLA talks restarted 7 October; broke up 1 November and will reconvene 26 November. SPLA leader John Garang said deal possible by year-end, suggesting “solution to Darfur…through…Naivasha”. UN Security Council voted to hold November 18-19 session in Nairobi in attempt to provide impetus to conflict resolution.

• “New guerrilla factions snarl Sudan peace talks”, International Herald Tribune, 26 Oct. 2004.
• “SPLM/A leader expects final peace deal by year-end”, IRIN, 25 Oct. 2004.
• “African Union to send more peacekeepers to Darfur”, IRIN, 21 Oct. 2004.
• “New rebel group set up in Sudan's Kordofan region”, The Sudan Tribune, 21 Oct. 2004.
• “Darfur troops to arrive week late”, BBC, 17 Oct. 2004.
• For background, see ICG Africa Report N°83, Darfur Deadline: A New International Action Plan, 23 Aug. 2004.

No end in sight to crisis in Darfur: U.S. Sec. State Colin Powell termed situation genocide, UN increased displaced persons estimate to 1.8 million. Thirty-day deadline for action passed 30 August without result. UN Special Envoy Jan Pronk described “culture of impunity” to UN Security Council 2 September - observers criticised report citing lack of recommended international action. After drawn-out negotiations Security Council agreed weakened resolution 18 September threatening consideration of possible oil industry sanctions if situation unimproved; requested creation of international commission of inquiry to investigate human rights abuses. Meanwhile, Africa Union-backed Abuja peace talks between Justice and Equality Movement, Sudan Liberation Movement and Khartoum government broke up 17 September; will resume October. Attack on West Kordofan police station outside Darfur killed 8 late September. UN mission to Sudan claimed 30 September “large-scale and systematic” war crimes had occurred and could recur; called for Sudan to accept AU offer of thousands of extra peace monitors. Meanwhile, Khartoum said it averted Islamist opposition coup plot 25 September. President Al-Bashir accused U.S. of funding Darfur rebels. Final talks between government and southern Sudan People’s Liberation Army to resume 7 October.

• “UN rights officials talks of war crimes in Darfur”, Reuters AlertNet, 30 Sept. 2004.
• “Sudan in the crucible”, Al-Ahram Weekly, 30 Sept. 2004.
• “Sudan's Kordofan state on alert after raid by Darfur rebels”, AFP, 24 Sept. 2004.
• “The crisis in Darfur: This wolf is real, and nobody's listening”, International Herald Tribune, 21 Sept. 2004.
• Comment by John Prendergast (ICG) “Sudan’s killing fields”, The Washington Times, 7 Sept. 2004.
• For background, see ICG Africa Report N°83, Darfur Deadline: A New International Action Plan, 23 Aug. 2004.

First 150 African Union (AU) troops, of total 300 expected, arrived Darfur 15 August to protect 100 unarmed AU ceasefire monitors. African and international pressure still fell short of that necessary to pressure Sudanese government and provide protection for people of Darfur. Sudan appeared to accept possible 2,000 further AU troops 25 August at AU-backed peace negotiations in Abuja, but said troops could only help with cantonment and disarming of rebel groups; rebels insisted would not confine themselves to base before political solution. Rebels briefly boycotted talks 28 August claiming 75 villagers killed in Sudanese government ceasefire violation; AU ceasefire commission suggested breaches by both sides. UN Special Envoy to Sudan Jan Pronk noted mixed progress, easing of aid restrictions and police deployment. Deadline for response to July 2004 UN Security Council resolution passed 30 August; Pronk will brief Security Council 2 September on situation, with subsequent UNSC decision on possible further measures. In positive development 31 August, southern SPLA rebels and government extended 3-month truce to 30 November.

• “Another push for peace”, The Economist, 30 Aug. 2004.
• Comment by John Prendergast (ICG), “Darfur will not be saved by words alone”, Wall Street Journal Europe, 30 Aug. 2004.
• “Sudan peace talks deadlocked in new aid squabble”, Reuters AlertNet, 29 Aug. 2004.
• “Janjaweed camps still active”, Human Rights Watch release, 27 Aug. 2004.
• Comment by David Mozersky (ICG), “Help the African Union protect Darfur’s people”, International Herald Tribune, 25 Aug. 2004.
• Comment by Gareth Evans (ICG), “Why nobody is doing enough for Darfur”, Financial Times, 3 Aug. 2004.
• For background, see ICG Africa Report N°80, Sudan: Now or Never in Darfur, 23 May 2004.

Growing but still inadequate international response to crisis in Darfur. UN Security Council voted 13-0, with 2 abstentions, in support of long-awaited - but watered-down - resolution 30 July, imposing immediate arms embargo on non-government entities, threatening further action in 30 days if Sudan fails to rein in Janjaweed militias. Following visit of UN Secretary General Kofi Annan, Sudan and UN issued joint communiqué 3 July promising to alleviate crisis in Darfur; UN observers will report back to Joint Implementation Mechanism 2 August. U.S. Congress voted to label situation “genocide” 22 July. UK hinted at possible 5,000-strong troop deployment, with Sudan rejecting notion of foreign intervention, calling for “balance” and time, and claiming 5,000 police deployed to Darfur. Africa Union (AU)-backed talks in Addis Ababa between government and Darfur rebels collapsed 17 July after 2 days. AU summit meeting in Ghana 30 July mooted strengthening of AU mission beyond planned 300. AU observers reported ongoing Janjaweed atrocities 28 July. Sudan accused Eritrea 31 July of backing alleged alliance between Darfur rebels and eastern Free Lions Association insurgents.

•  “Sudan says rebels spread fighting to the east”, Reuters AlertNet, 31 July 2004.
•  “UN gives backing to watered-down resolution on crisis in Sudan”, The Guardian, 31 July 2004.
•  “Threats and excuses”, The Economist, 27 July 2004.
•  “Darfur documents confirm government policy of militia support”, HRW briefing paper, 20 July 2004.
•  “Rape as a weapon of war: sexual violence and its consequences”, Amnesty International report, 19 July 2004.
• Comment by John Prendergast (ICG), “Sudan’s ravines of death”, New York  Times, 15 July 2004.
• For background, see ICG Africa Report N°80, Sudan: Now or Never in Darfur, 23 May 2004.

Crisis deepened in Darfur as rainy season making aid delivery increasingly difficult. UNHCR claimed budget one third of that required to care for 200,000 expected in UN camps. UNSG Kofi Annan and U.S. Sec. State Colin Powell separately visited Khartoum and Darfur 29-30 June, as U.S. considered sponsoring Security Council resolution threatening sanctions. Little credence given to Sudanese president al-Bashir’s 19 June pledge to disarm Janjaweed militia, who continue to operate, effectively confining 75-80,000 to Murnei, attacking humanitarian convoy near Kabkabiya 15 June and refugee camps. Annan appointed Jan Pronk special representative for Sudan ahead of possible peace-support operation in south following signing of Naivasha accords. Uganda claimed lack of Sudanese cooperation against rebel Lord’s Resistance Army bases in southern Sudan.

• “Powell seeks to stop the killing”, The Economist, 1 July 2004.
• “In Sudan, death and denial”, The Washington Post, 29 June 2004.
• “Mornay Camp, West Darfur State, Sudan: No relief in sight”, Doctors Without Borders, 21 June 2004.
• “Sudan orders pursuit of outlawed groups”, The Washington Post, 20 June 2004.
• “UN pleads for new Darfur funding”, BBC, 15 June 2004.
• Comment by Andrew Stroehlein (ICG), “Darfur starvation will be televised…eventually”, Christian Science Monitor, 8 June 2004.
• Comment by Samantha Power and John Prendergast (ICG), “Break through to Darfur“, Los Angeles Times, 2 June 2004.
• For background, see ICG Africa Report N°80, Sudan: Now or Never in Darfur, 23 May 2004.

On positive note, parties announced “major breakthrough” in discussions in Naivasha, Kenya in peace talks between southern SPLA rebels and government to end 21-year civil war. Sides signed key protocols on power-sharing and resolving disputes in 3 regions, paving way for comprehensive peace agreement in coming weeks or months. But situation in Darfur, western Sudan, continued to slide towards humanitarian disaster despite mobilisation of international concern. Over 1 million now displaced in Darfur. Sudanese government professed eagerness to find lasting solution 12 May, but blocked Darfur aid until 21 May as U.S. and international pressure increased. Access for aid workers continues to be impeded. Pledge to disarm Janjaweed militia unfulfilled as violence continued. 45 killed in village south of Nyala by militia 24 May. Onset of rainy season threatens to complicate aid effort with as many as 350,000 lives at risk. Current UN Security Council president finally moved to issue weak statement 26 May condemning government-supported militia attacks, demanding disarmament and accountability but falling short of suggesting international peace-enforcement. Sudan elected to UN Human Rights Commission prompting U.S. walk-out, but latter nevertheless took Sudan off list of states sponsoring terrorism.

• “Sudan peace deal signed”, The Washington Post, 26 May 2004.
• “UN urges government to disarm militias”, IRIN, 26 May 2004.
• “Dozens killed in Sudan attack”, BBC, 24 May 2004.
• “US takes Sudan off terror list, keeps sanctions”, Reuters AlertNet, 18 May 2004.
• Comment by Anthony Lake and John Prendergast (ICG), “Stopping Sudan’s slow-motion genocide”, The Boston Globe, 20 May 2004.
• Comment by William Shawcross and Emma Bonino (ICG), “Darfur’s agony is world’s shame”, Financial Times, 19 May 2004.
• Comment by Gareth Evans (ICG), “Sudan’s Darfur: An international responsibility to protect”, International Herald Tribune, 14 May 2004.

Reflecting rising international concern about humanitarian crisis in western Sudan, President Bush and UN Secretary General Annan called on government to end attacks on civilians in Darfur, with Annan claiming attacks were ethnic cleansing. This claim echoed by USAID Administrator Andrew Natsios. UN Commission on Human Rights passed resolution weakly criticising Sudan. UN team in Darfur late April on fact-finding mission. Government and main western rebel groups agreed 45-day humanitarian ceasefire 8 April, met in Chad 20 April for peace talks; no progress in talks so far. UN says more than 1 million civilians now displaced in Darfur, and leaked UN report claimed Arab militias conducting "reign of terror" against black civilians. Chadian troops deployed on Sudan border late April to protect refugees and Chadian citizens from militias. Meanwhile, peace talks with southern rebels re civil war resumed in Kenya 28 April, in attempt to resolve outstanding issues of power-sharing and application of Sharia law in capital, Khartoum. Parties extended existing ceasefire 1 month from 30 April.

• "Stalling in Sudan . . ." and ". . . And in Geneva", Washington Post editorials, 26 Apr. 2004.
• "Sudan peace talks resume", CNN, 28 Apr. 2004.
• "On the road to nowhere", Newsweek, 3 May 2004.
• "Sudan's ethnic strife spurs Bush, Annan to voice worry", San Francisco Chronicle, 8 Apr. 2004.
• For background, see ICG Africa Report N°76, Darfur Rising: Sudan's New Crisis, 25 Mar. 2004.

Savage fighting continued in western province of Darfur. UN Coordinator for Sudan claimed 19 March conflict had created “the worst humanitarian crisis in the world”, with more than 1 million people affected by “ethnic cleansing”. Also claimed government-backed Arab militias systematically burned villages and raped women. Government called allegations ‘heap of lies’. Boycotted peace talks with western rebels, due to start in Chad 30 March, because international observers present. Peace talks between government and Sudan People’s Liberation Army, due to end 22 March, extended yet again. President Bush spoke separately to President Omar el-Bashir and to leader of SPLA 22 March, urging them to reach agreement. Issues to be resolved are administration of 3 disputed central regions and representation in transitional government. Government arrested opposition Islamist leader Hassan al-Turabi and number of other opposition politicians and army officers late March over alleged coup plot.

• “Sudanese Islamist leader arrested”, BBC, 31 Mar. 2004.
• Opinion piece by Nicholas Kristof, “Will we say ‘never again’ yet again”, International Herald Tribune (NYT), 30 Mar. 2004.
• Opinion piece by Nicholas Kristof, “Don’t let Sudan’s ethnic cleansing go on”, International Herald Tribune (NYT), 25 Mar. 2004.
• “Bush pushing for peace in war-torn Sudan”, The Guardian (AP), 22 Mar. 2004.
• “Latest round of Sudan peace talks extended again”, Reuters AlertNet, 22 Mar. 2004.
• For background, see ICG Africa Report N°65, Sudan: Towards an Incomplete Peace, 11 Dec. 2003.

Peace talks between government and southern rebels resumed in Kenya 17 February, though little progress made. Truce between parties extended one month 28 February to enable talks to continue during March. Issues to be resolved are administration of 3 disputed central regions and representation in transitional government. Conflict in western Sudan may be expanding – rebels claim to have opened new front in neighbouring Northern Kordofan state. Government said it had gained control of whole Darfur region – claim denied by western rebels. UN said 110,000 refugees have fled Darfur fighting into Chad, 25,000 since government claimed control of region.

• “Sudan rebels, govt extend truce as talks progress”, Reuters AlertNet, 28 Feb. 2004.
• “West Sudan rebels say moving towards Khartoum”, Reuters AlertNet, 25 Feb. 2004.
• “Amid hopes, fears of an incomplete peace in Sudan”, CNN, 16 Feb. 2004.
• “Darfur – too many people killed for no reason”, Amnesty International report, 3 Feb. 2004.
• For background, see ICG Africa Report N°65, Sudan: Towards an Incomplete Peace, 11 Dec. 2003.

Worsening conflict in western region of Darfur received increased international attention. UN estimates some 600,000 displaced people in Darfur and 100,000 refugees in neighbouring Chad. Humanitarian groups unable to get to Darfur to deliver aid. Government commenced daily bombing raids 9 January, killing hundreds of civilians. Peace talks with southern SPLA rebels adjourned till 17 February. Accord on wealth sharing signed 7 January, but agreement yet to be reached on power sharing and control of disputed territories, despite pressure from U.S..

• “Thousands flee war in Sudan”, The Guardian, 30 Jan. 2004.
• “Hundreds killed in daily air-raids on Darfur villages”, IRIN, 29 Jan. 2004.
• “New war in Sudan’s west dims peace in south”, International Herald Tribune, 22 Jan. 2004.
• Comment by John Prendergast and Andrew Stroehlein (ICG), “Don’t breathe a sigh of relief for Sudan just yet”, The Observer, 20 Jan. 2004.
• “Government and rebels sign wealth sharing pact”, International Herald Tribune (AP), 8 Jan. 2004.
• For background, see ICG Africa Report N°65, Sudan: Towards an Incomplete Peace, 11 Dec. 2003.

Civil war approaching end, but western Sudan conflict continued to worsen. Positive development in continuing negotiations to end 20 year civil war, with government and rebels reaching agreement 20 December on sharing of oil wealth. Remaining issues include administration of 3 disputed central regions and representation in transitional government. But other conflict continues in western Darfur region, with alarming deterioration in human rights and humanitarian situation and international community yet to take action.

• “The escalating crisis in Darfur”, IRIN, 31 Dec. 2003.
• “Sudan govt, rebels to share oil revenue”, The Guardian (AP), 21 Dec. 2003.
• “The Other War in Sudan: A Call for High Level Observer in Western Sudan Peace Process”, ICG media release, 10 Dec. 2003.

Concern over growing conflict and humanitarian crisis in Darfur region, western Sudan – hundreds of thousands remain displaced, threatened by Arab militias. Rebels in Darfur claim 210 killed in fighting with militias during last week of November. Human Rights Watch also accused government and foreign oil companies of complicity in displacing hundreds of thousands in southern oil region of Western Upper Nile.

• “Heavy fighting reported in west Darfur”, IRIN, 28 Nov. 2003.
• “Sudan enters a new era”, Washington Times, 27 Nov. 2003.
• “Sudan: Oil companies complicit in rights abuses”, Human Rights Watch report, 25 Nov. 2003.
• “Concern grows over deteriorating situation in Darfur”, IRIN, 14 Nov. 2003.
• For background, see ICG Africa Report N°65, Sudan Endgame, 7 Jul. 2003.

Peace talks going well, with parties committed to signing power sharing agreement by end of 2003. Signs continue to indicate imminent end to one of Africa’s longest conflicts, claiming perhaps 2m lives over 20 years. Outstanding issues include power and oil wealth sharing and status of Khartoum. Secretary Powell visited negotiators 22 October, pledging U.S. support for reconstruction once agreement reached. Widespread insecurity continues in Darfur, western Sudan, despite ceasefire, with more than 300,000 internally displaced persons in region. U.S. extended sanctions against Sudan for another year.

• “Peace in our time”, The Economist, 23 Oct. 2003.
• “Sudan ‘committed to December peace deal’”, The Guardian, 22 Oct. 2003.
• “Rising number of displaced in Dafur”, IRIN, 23 Oct. 2003.
• For background, see ICG Africa Report N°65, Sudan Endgame, 7 Jul. 2003.

Peace talks in Kenya between Sudanese Government and rebel Sudan People's Liberation Army going well. Parties signed agreement on 25 September on security arrangements for six-year transition period – removing significant obstacle to ending conflict. Uganda claims Sudan arming Lord’s Resistance Army rebels in Uganda. Parties agreed to renew for two months ceasefire due to expire at end of September.

• “Sudan deal brings war’s end closer”, The Guardian, 26 September 2003.
• Marc Lacey, “Sudan and rebels take big step to peace”, International Herald Tribune, 26 September 2003.
• For background, see ICG Africa Report N°65, Sudan Endgame, 7 July 2003 and comment by John Prendergast and David Mozersky (ICG), “Going to Hell?”, The Observer, 24 August 2003.

Peace talks in Kenya between Sudanese Government and rebel Sudan People's Liberation Army at critical stage. Postponed to 10 September, as Government initially refused to negotiate on basis of draft framework agreement prepared by mediators, while SPLA demanded that framework document be sole basis for discussion. Deal making behind scenes may produce agreement. Uganda claims Sudan is arming Lord’s Resistance Army rebels in Uganda.

• “Sudan ‘re-arming Uganda rebels’”, BBC News, 26 August 2003.
• Comment by John Prendergast and David Mozersky (ICG), “Going to Hell?”, The Observer, 24 August 2003.
• For background, see ICG Africa Report N°65, Sudan Endgame, 7 July 2003.