ZANU-PF failed to attend power-sharing negotiations scheduled to resume 16 Jan; talks called off 20 Jan. South African mediators 5 Jan said parties had reached consensus on some outstanding issues. ZANU-PF 27 Jan said party to make no further concessions until sanctions lifted; PM Tsvangirai 29 Jan urged foreign govts to send “very positive signal” by easing sanctions. South African President Zuma urged parties to put most contentious issues aside to allow country to proceed with 2011 election. SADC leaders 7 Jan expressed frustration with slow pace of reforms. Trial of MDC-T Treasurer and Deputy Agriculture Minister-designate Roy Bennett resumed 12 Jan; state’s key witness backtracked on statement implicating Bennett in alleged terror plot, allegedly made under torture; judge 25 Jan ruled witness’s statements inadmissible. Public consultations on new constitution to resume after parties 28 Jan reportedly reached compromise on administration of outreach teams. Commercial Farmers’ Union 22 Jan criticised govt for failing to halt surge in farm invasions; High Court 27 Jan rejected 2008 SADC court ruling against land seizures. Finance Minister Biti 19 Jan said foreign debt burden hampering efforts to mend economy.

• Comment by Donald Steinberg (Crisis Group), “The International Role in Promoting Democratic Governance and Economic Recovery in Zimbabwe”, testimony to International Development Committee, UK parliament, 27 Jan. 2010.   
• “Main witness in Zimbabwe treason trial ‘tortured’”, AFP, 25 Jan. 2010.

ZANU-PF and MDC negotiators failed to resolve outstanding power-sharing issues by 5 Dec deadline set by SADC early Nov. New South African mediation team assembled by President Zuma visited Harare 7-9 Dec, reported modest progress. President Mugabe and PM Tsvangirai 21 Dec agreed on make-up of new commissions established to address media and electoral reform. MDC District Chairman for Makoni South Mudzingwa Bakare arrested 20 Dec for holding “illegal” rally convened by MDC MP; party condemned as political harassment. ZANU-PF factional tensions intensified as party held national congress 11-12 Dec, failed to reach agreement on amendments to party’s constitution. Mugabe, re-elected party leader, repeated call for targeted sanctions to be removed. Finance Minister Biti 2 Dec forecast economy to grow by 7% in 2010. During 7-9 Dec visit, UN Asst SG for Humanitarian Affairs Bragg said humanitarian situation had improved since formation of unity govt, launched appeal for assistance.

• “Mugabe re-elected Zanu-PF party leader for five more years”, Guardian, 13 Dec. 2009.
• For background, see Crisis Group Africa Briefing N°59, Zimbabwe: Engaging the Inclusive Government, 20 April 2009. 

PM and MDC-T leader Tsvangirai 6 Nov ended 3 week disengagement from unity govt after SADC leaders set 30-day deadline, expiring 5 Dec, for resolution of all outstanding power-sharing issues. Tsvangirai met President Mugabe (ZANU-PF), Deputy PM Mutambara (MDC-M) for talks 13 Nov, reportedly agreeing to reforms of media, electoral system and improving human rights. South African mediation team 30 Nov held talks with Mugabe, Tsvangirai. Parliament 18 Nov unanimously approved bill reforming Reserve Bank, reducing power of controversial bank governor Gono. Terrorism trial of Deputy Agriculture Minister-designate Roy Bennett (MDC-T) began 9 Nov, adjourned 27 Nov until Jan after key witness against Bennett, arms dealer Peter Hitschmann, failed to appear in court. Harassment of activists, MDC members continued; union leader Lovemore Matombo detained 8-13 Nov. Kimberly Process team 5 Nov gave Zimbabwe till June 2010 to implement plan to end rights abuses in Marange diamond fields; state media 19 Nov announced army withdrawing from mines.

• “When patience finally runs out”, Economist, 12 Nov. 2009.
• For background, see Crisis Group Africa Briefing N°59, Zimbabwe: Engaging the Inclusive Government, 20 April 2009. 

Political situation deteriorated as PM Tsvangirai 16 Oct announced MDC-T to “disengage” from unity govt over stalled implementation of Global Political Agreement and brief imprisonment of Deputy Agriculture Minister designate Roy Bennett (MDC-T). MDC-T boycotted cabinet, council of minister meetings, but Tsvangirai 23 Oct stressed MDC-T had not “withdrawn” from govt. SADC delegation in Harare 29-30 Oct for talks with govt announced extraordinary summit to be held as soon as possible. UN Special Rapporteur for Torture Manfred Nowak 28 Oct expressed outrage at govt’s revocation of invite for investigative mission; govt said visit clashed with SADC visit. MDC reported increase in violence after boycott. Fresh spate of farm invasions over month. ZANU-PF succession battle continued as members failed to nominate replacement for late VP John Msika by 7 Oct deadline. Former minister Jonathan Moyo readmitted to ZANU-PF 3 Oct. UK 15 Oct pledged $100m for public services.

• Comment by Donald Steinberg (Crisis Group), “Zimbabwe: The Case for Engagement, testimony to U.S. Subcommittee on Africa”, 30 Sept. 2009.
• “Hardliners ‘seek Zimbabwe split’”, BBC, 27 Oct. 2009.
• For background, see Crisis Group Africa Briefing N°59, Zimbabwe: Engaging the Inclusive Government, 20 April 2009. 

One year anniversary of signing of Global Political Agreement marked by deepening frustration among MDC party over power-sharing failures. Party officials at 11 Sept convention pressed for GNU walk-out if outstanding issues not quickly resolved, while MDC leader and PM Tsvangirai at 13 Sept party rally in Bulawayo implied right to disengage, though actual risk thought low. Rivalry between ZANU-PF Mujuru and Mnangagwa factions continued to intensify, focusing on party allocation of posts at 11 and 16 Sept youth and women’s league conferences and possible readmission of renowned former information minister Moyo. ZANU-PF dealt significant blow 11 Sept by high level defection of women’s league chair Thenjiwe Lesabe to ZANU. Some thawing in external relations: U.S. delegation arrived 2 Sept, and high-level EU delegation 3 Sept; both stressed support to govt but maintaining stance on targeted sanctions. IMF end-Aug released $400m in support to boost foreign currency reserves, part of agreement reached at G20 summit to help member states manage global recession - no shift in IMF policy. UK 11 Sept announced govt prepared to resume support to land reform program. In diplomatic boost for Mugabe, SADC at early month summit called for removal of all Zimbabwe sanctions.

• “Tsvangirai impatient for reform”, Financial Times, 13 Sept. 2009.
• For background, see Crisis Group Africa Briefing N°59, Zimbabwe: Engaging the Inclusive Government, 20 April 2009.

Relations between power-sharing partners ZANU-PF and MDC parties continued to strain. ZANU-PF 14 Aug announced it would make no further concessions to MDC on unity govt, alleging MDC had reneged on pledge to secure removal of targeted sanctions. Cabinet retreat in Nyanga dissolved 24 Aug after Deputy PM Mutambara (MDC-M faction) called 2008 elections fraudulent, prompting ZANU-PF walk-out. 10 more MDC lawmakers briefly arrested late month. VP John Msika died early month of natural causes, fuelling already fierce battle between the 2 ZANU-PF factions over President Mugabe’s succession. U.S. Sec State Clinton during 8 Aug visit to South Africa stressed “negative effects” of Mugabe’s rule on SA and called for more action to ensure reform. South African President and SADC Chairman Zuma 27 Aug travelled to Harare, called on governing parties to implement Sept 2008 Global Political Agreement to “create confidence”. Mugabe 27 Aug lashed out at western interference. Army and air-force chiefs Phillip Sibanda and Perence Shiri publicly saluted PM Tsvangirai for first time; reports gesture part of possible bargain with MDC regarding their outstanding power-sharing demands. UN and Medecins Sans Frontieres warned of potential new cholera outbreak as rainy season approaches.

• “Zimbabwe unity government tense ahead of Zuma mediation visit”, VOA, 24 Aug. 2009.
• For background, see Crisis Group Africa Briefing N°59, Zimbabwe: Engaging the Inclusive Government, 20 April 2009.

Tension between GPA coalition partners on the rise. MDC MPs 29 June boycotted cabinet meeting unilaterally rescheduled by President Mugabe, announced list of unresolved grievances regarding appointments and Mugabe’s failure to convene all-party National Security Council. 4 MDC MPs handed jail sentences over month, requiring they vacate seats; MDC 22 July accused ZANU-PF of seeking to erode MDC majority. 13 July all-stakeholders conference on constitution-making process disrupted, resuming next day, after ZANU-PF supporters stormed meeting; both sides condemned disturbances. ZANU-PF continues to press for adoption of 2007 “Kariba draft”, MDC for fresh consultative process. Reports of worsening violence against MDC supporters in countryside. Mugabe in 27 July Global Dialogue conference in Uganda hinted at ban on NGOs. Mugabe met new U.S. Asst Sec State for Africa Carson at AU summit in Libya 3 July, afterwards called Carson an “idiot” for seeking to “dictate” Zimbabwean affairs. Kimberley Process review team visited Marange diamond fields early month, reporting “horrific” violence against civilians by security forces and illegal mining by military, calling for removal of troops by 20 July and threatening to blacklist Zim diamonds; security forces remained at end month.

• Comment by François Grignon (Crisis Group), “The Race for Influence in Zimbabwe”, Guardian, 25 July 2009.
• “Political violence growing in rural areas”, IRIN, 27 July 2009. 
• For background, see Crisis Group Africa Briefing N°59, Zimbabwe: Engaging the Inclusive Government, 20 April 2009.

MDC leader and PM Tsvangirai 7-26 June visited Europe and U.S. to generate donor support, announced acrimony with President Mugabe “over”. Elicited some $115m additional humanitarian aid from EU, Netherlands, U.S., Germany, UK to be channeled through Consolidated Appeal Process (CAP), well below requested $8-9b; capitals stressed direct funding to govt contingent on further reforms, amid continuing criticism of Mugabe’s intransigence. China late month committed $950m in credit lines, largest loan from single country since unity govt formed. 3rd IMF assessment mission began 15 June. Reconciliation Minister Sekai Holland (MDC) early-month announced MDC opponents preparing for fresh violence at national elections (expected in 18 months), claimed 39,000 anti-MDC militiamen operating within and outside govt civil service. Hearings for 18-month constitutional review process started 24 June after parliament approved $36m budget 4 June; civil society groups still demanding more significant role in preparatory process. UN humanitarian coordinator for Zimbabwe Agostinho Zacarias 1 June launched revised CAP for Zimbabwe, expanded by 30% to $719m in humanitarian plus-type assistance; came amid spike in food insecurity and 100,000 cholera infection level. ICRC announced food distribution to 6,300 prisoners, amid reports of severe overcrowding, malnutrition and disease in prisons.

• Comment by Donald Steinberg (Crisis Group), “Want to sideline Mugabe? Support Zimbabwe now”, Reuters: The Great Debate, 22 June 2009.
• “Zimbabwe divisions pose a quandary for west”, New York Times, 11 June 2009.
• For background, see Crisis Group Africa Briefing N°59, Zimbabwe: Engaging the Inclusive Government, 20 April 2009.

Political deadlock between coalition partners MDC and ZANU-PF on outstanding power-sharing issues, centred on dominance of ZANU-PF in security, financial and regional administration, continued. PM Tsvangirai (MDC) initially issued ultimatum for resolution of dispute by 8 May, but 17 May party statement called for issues to be referred to SADC and AU; at national party conference MDC 31 May demanded central bank governor Gono and attorney general resign. Inter-party standoff stoked 5 May by re-arrest of 17 rights activists and MDC supporters, fresh wave of farm invasions by ZANU-PF cadres. Divides within ZANU-PF increasingly apparent, with tense exchanges at 6 and 20 May party politburo meetings grounded in apparent succession struggle between factions led by General Solomon Mujuru and long-standing security chief Mnangagwa. ZAPU party after months of consolidating powerbase announced formal separation from ZANU-PF. IMF 6 May announced resumption of limited technical assistance, and World Bank 18 May a $22m grant, but stressed full financial aid conditional on country’s payment of significant arrears. Further contributions from regional states raised to $1bn pledges in credit lines by private and state African banks. USAID, WFP reported continued food shortages likely to be compounded by poor harvest.

• Comment by Sydney Masamvu and Donald Steinberg (Crisis Group), “If the World Hesitates, Zimbabwe Could Be Lost”, Huffington Post, 8 May 2009.
• “Zimbabwe’s MDC asks AU, SADC to sort out deadlock”, Reuters, 17 May 2009.
• “Another year without much food”, IRIN, 22 May 2009.
• For background, see Crisis Group Africa Briefing N°59, Zimbabwe: Engaging the Inclusive Government, 20 April 2009.

Some reform progress but amid signs of severe strains within unity govt. Talks between party leaders over month failed to deliver progress on major stumbling blocks, including unilateral appointments by President Mugabe, ongoing farm seizures by ZANU-PF cadres; tensions fuelled 9 Apr by Mugabe’s impromptu move to shift telecommunications portfolio from MDC to ZANU-PF control. Govt early month announced broad-based, 100-day reform action plan, later replaced Zim dollar with foreign currency pending increase in industrial output; constitution-drafting committee announced 12 Apr but amid dissatisfaction from civil society leaders over inadequate consultation. Govt struggling to meet pledge to pay public sector salaries. Govt late month reported regional states pledged $400m in credit lines; western govts still cautious, including on calls for broad “humanitarian-plus” support. Fragility of security situation underscored by reports of renewed violence by security chiefs seeking to increase pressure for amnesties.

• “Zim leaders in talks as unity govt hangs in the balance”, Mail & Guardian, 16 Apr. 2009.
• “Old foes enjoy ‘Team Zimbabwe’ trip”, BBC, 6 Apr. 2009.

Newly formed coalition govt 19 March unveiled $5b socio-economic recovery plan (STERP), later raising to $8.5b, calling for injection of foreign aid and removal of economic sanctions. Australia, Sweden, others resumed broad aid; U.S., EU leaders agreed to enhance humanitarian assistance and support to key social sectors (“humanitarian-plus”), but stressed targeted sanctions will remain in place and broader support held back until clear progress on implementation of power-sharing, genuine governance reforms, release of political detainees. IMF 25 March deferred resumption of financial assistance. Rights activist Jestina Mukoko and MDC agriculture minister appointee Roy Bennett released on bail, Mukoko bearing signs of torture; dozens of activists still detained. Tsvangirai 27 March called on police to arrest those responsible for forcible seizures of privately-owned farms, reflecting language in STERP document and change in govt policy. Some visible improvements on ground with several schools opening for first time in over a year, but UN reported humanitarian situation remains dire, with most hospitals still closed and cholera cases continuing to rise. Tsvangirai’s wife killed and Tsvangirai injured in car crash 6 March; MDC said investigations revealed crash accidental.

• “Fragile signs of hope emerging in the gloom of Mugabe’s rule”, New York Times, 19 March 2009.
• For background, see Crisis Group Africa Briefing N°56, Ending Zimbabwe’s Nightmare: A Possible Way Forward, 16 Dec. 2008.

Long-awaited unity govt formed early month, but amid continued political repression and serious concerns over President Mugabe’s commitment to power-sharing. MDC leader Tsvangirai sworn in as PM 11 Feb and 61-strong cabinet on 13 Feb. Analysts concerned at dominance of party hardliners over hoped-for technocrats. MDC treasurer and deputy agriculture minister appointee Roy Bennett arrested 13 Feb, later charged with terrorism; hundreds rallied outside Mutare prison in public outcry. Mugabe late month vowed to accelerate controversial land seizures, said govt an interim arrangement, new elections to be held in 2 years. 14 Feb demonstration in Harare of 600 from Women of Zimbabwe Arise forcefully dispersed by police; 5 still arrested, bringing to some 35 the number of activists and MDC detained. International community greeted new govt with caution, with U.S., UK, EU leaders stressing reconstruction funds would only be released when reform benchmarks met, but committing to humanitarian, health, education assistance. Govt 26 Feb called on SADC states for $2b loan to help collapsed economy.

• “Zimbabwe politician faces terror charge”, Guardian, 16 Feb. 2009.
• “Government sets conditions for lifting Zimbabwe sanctions”, Reuters, 13 Feb. 2009.
• For background, see Crisis Group Africa Briefing N°56, Ending Zimbabwe’s Nightmare: A Possible Way Forward, 16 Dec. 2008.

Opposition MDC 30 Jan agreed to form unity govt (GNU) with President Mugabe’s ZANU-PF, following months-long political deadlock and raising prospects for urgent social and economic reforms. Swearing-in expected to begin 11 Feb. MDC leader and future PM Tsvangirai led calls for participation amid reportedly intense party debate. Agreement reached despite early-month signs that deadlock hardening. Mugabe 6 Jan appointed 8 cabinet ministers, allegedly temporary but amid wide expectations he planned to form govt unilaterally. SADC states at 26 Jan emergency summit stepped up call for formation of GNU, said agreement secured from ZANU-PF, MDC leaders on timetable. MDC initially denied deal, condemned SADC’s failure to address key demands regarding terms of power-sharing, release of political prisoners. Dozens of MDC supporters, activists still detained; further reports of state torture. EU 26 Jan extended sanctions against companies, individuals linked to ZANU-PF regime. Deaths from spiralling cholera epidemic reached 3,000 as health, food and economic crisis intensified.

• Comment by Donald Steinberg (Crisis Group), “No Time to ‘Wait-and-See’”, 30 Jan. 2009.
• “Tsvangirai gambles on ‘forced marriage’”, Financial Times, 30 Jan. 2009.
• “Opponents of Mugabe tell court of torture”, New York Times, 15 Jan. 2009.
• For background, see Crisis Group Africa Briefing N°56, Ending Zimbabwe’s Nightmare: A Possible Way Forward, 16 Dec. 2008.

Talks on formation of unity govt remained deadlocked, while signs that President Mugabe preparing to appoint new govt without opposition MDC leader Tsvangirai mounted: Mugabe late month unilaterally sacked 12 cabinet ministers; state press 3 Jan reported new govt to be in place by mid-Feb. Late month talks between Mugabe and MDC faction leader Mutambara prompted speculation over possible alliance. Tsvangirai 19 Dec threatened to quit unity govt talks unless authorities release activists and MDC supporters detained in continuing state repression, earlier stressing range of political issues still unresolved. Several arrested for alleged coup plot appeared in court 29 Dec with visible signs of torture. Mugabe issued defiant statements claiming cholera epidemic “over” – despite continuing deaths – and at 20 Dec annual ZANU-PF conference pledging to “never surrender” Zimbabwe, in further tirade against foreign enemies. U.S. late Dec threatened to suspend all aid if Mugabe included in any power-sharing govt, called along with Australia, France for Mugabe to step down. South Africa’s President Motlanthe 13 Dec stopped short with call for speedy formation of govt. EU 8 Dec extended sanctions against Mugabe regime supporters with visa bans for further 11 Zimbabwean officials. Acute food shortages and rapid spread of cholera amid collapse of basic services, with over 1,500 killed by cholera in month and growing number of cases across country’s border.

• Comment by François Grignon (Crisis Group),“Kick Mugabe and Tsvangirai Out, Get a New Team”, East African, 20 Dec. 2008.
• “Mugabe defiant as pressure builds”, Mail & Guardian, 20 Dec. 2008.

Future of 15 Sept power-sharing deal still uncertain as political deadlock between ZANU-PF leader Mugabe and main MDC faction leader Tsvangirai continued. At late month talks in South Africa, parties 27 Nov signed draft constitutional amendment bill required to give legal effect to power-sharing deal, but still requires parliamentary approval. Agreement reportedly secured only after parties agreed to strictly limit scope of bill to deal’s provisions: MDC says key issues still unresolved. SADC states meeting 9 Nov called for joint management of disputed interior ministry, immediate creation of unity govt, in statement seen as missed opportunity to censure Mugabe’s increasing claims on power; Tsvangirai 14 Nov rejected proposal, refused to join govt, later called for mediator Mbeki’s replacement. Rights groups reported rise in political violence by state and ZANU-PF militia, including harassment, arrests, rapes of MDC supporters and civilians; torture camps reportedly being re-manned; protests in Harare in 11, 26 Nov forcefully dispersed by police. Mugabe 26 Nov unilaterally reappointed Reserve Bank head Gono for further 5-year term. Series of defections from ZANU-PF to resurgent rival ZAPU-PF. South Africa 20 Nov withheld aid until representative govt formed. The Elders group of former statesmen in late month visit to highlight mounting humanitarian crisis met with regional leaders in Johannesburg; after being refused entry to Zimbabwe. UN warned 4m face starvation by Jan, cholera epidemic spreading.

• “Zimbabwe rivals head for talks on deadlock”, Guardian, 25 Nov. 2008.
• “Barred from Zimbabwe, but not silent”, New York Times, 24 Nov. 2008.
• For background, see Crisis Group Africa Briefing N°51, Negotiating Zimbabwe’s Transition, 21 May 2008.

Stalemate over ministerial appointments intensified and 15 Sept power-sharing deal with MDC party leaders threatened to unravel after ZANU-PF party leader President Mugabe 11 Oct unilaterally claimed all key posts. MDC head Tsvangirai 12 Oct vowed to withdraw unless received home affairs ministry, which confers control over ZANU-PF dominated police. 4-day rescue talks overseen by lead mediator Mbeki and 27 Oct regional SADC summit failed to broker compromise; SADC troika talks earlier postponed after ZANU-PF-dominated authorities failed to issue Tsvangirai passport. Parliament forced to adjourn late month due to insufficient funds. Police brutally suppressed 200-strong 14 Oct student protests outside parliament, arrested further 47 activists calling for political settlement. Rights group 31 Oct said humanitarian crisis, food shortages intensifying. Tsvangirai and independent watchdog ZESN condemned electoral commission plans to hold by-elections for 6 vacant seats, citing provisions of 15 Sept deal and need for pause after severe election violence in Apr-June. EU, U.S. threatening to extend targeted sanctions against ZANU-PF hardliners if Mugabe reneges on Sept pledge.

• “Deadlock in Zimbabwe”, Guardian, 17 Oct. 2008.
• “Zimbabwe generals’ fears of prosecution threaten deal”, New York Times, 15 Oct. 2008.
• For background, see Crisis Group Africa Briefing N°51, Negotiating Zimbabwe’s Transition, 21 May 2008.

Power-sharing deal between rival party leaders signed 15 Sept following 7 weeks of stop-start talks to resolve crisis. Agreement offers best chance to loosen Mugabe and his ZANU-PF party’s 30-year grip on power, but many observers cautious, citing uncertainty over where power lies and implementation. In deal: executive powers divided between ZANU-PF leader Mugabe, retaining presidency, and MDC leader Tsvangirai, as new PM; each to lead cabinet bodies; combined MDC (incl MDC Mutambara faction) given slim majority of cabinet posts; inclusive, 18-month process established for constitutional reform. But distribution of key ministries still unresolved after talks hit impasse 18 Sept. Continuation of Thabo Mbeki’s role as chief mediator uncertain following his late month resignation as president of South Africa; SADC judgment expected early Oct. International response to deal muted: U.S., UK, EU leaders said aid and removal of targeted sanctions contingent on delivery of reforms. Authorities continued to obstruct urgent aid operations, with new requirements imposed on aid agencies 2 Sept; 26 Sept authorised trading in foreign currency in effort to ease economic crisis. UN estimated at least $5bn in foreign aid needed to fund economic recovery over next 5 years.

• Comment by Don Steinberg and Sydney Masamvu (Crisis Group), “Making the Most of the Deal”, AllAfrica, 30 Sept. 2008.
• “Cautious optimism returns to Zimbabwe”, Guardian, 20 Sept. 2008.
• “A deal, but no clarity, in Zimbabwe”, International Herald Tribune, 12 Sept. 2008.
• For background, see Crisis Group Africa Briefing N°51, Negotiating Zimbabwe’s Transition, 21 May 2008.

No progress in power-sharing talks between ZANU-PF leader Mugabe, opposition MDC leader Tsvangirai and MDC faction leader Mutambara. Talks stalled mid-month over division of executive powers as Mugabe and ZANU-PF hardliners demanded Tsvangirai accept semi-ceremonial PM role. Further talks in margins of SADC summit 16-17 Aug and in South Africa 29-31 Aug failed to break impasse; regional leaders increasingly concerned talks ineffective. Mugabe unilaterally convened parliament 26 Aug, in breach of 21 July talks agreement, and began appointments to Senate, governorships 24 Aug. In blow to ZANU-PF, MDC-Tsvangirai MP Lovemore Moyo elected parliamentary speaker after gaining 11 ZANU-PF and MDC-Mutambara votes. State violence, intimidation down since June peak, but reports 2 killed in continuing ZANU-PF attacks on MDC supporters in rural areas; 2 MDC MPs arrested before speaker vote. ZANU-PF 29 Aug lifted 3-month ban on aid agencies, issued new currency 1 Aug removing 10 zeros from dollar.

• Comment by Gareth Evans (Crisis Group), “Impasse for Zimbabwe”, Guardian, 19 Aug. 2008.
• “Zimbabwe talks ‘end without deal’”, BBC, 31 Aug. 2008.
• “Zimbabwe opposition wins key post”, International Herald Tribune, 26 Aug. 2008.
• For background, see Crisis Group Africa Briefing N°51, Negotiating Zimbabwe’s Transition, 21 May 2008.

In historic face-to-face meeting, rivals President Mugabe and MDC opposition leader Tsvangirai 21 July agreed to negotiate on way out of violent, 4-month election crisis. Parties, including MDC faction led by Mutambara, agreed to 2-week talks on formation of power-sharing govt – substantial challenges remain, including leadership and duration of govt, role of security services. Talks began 24 July in Pretoria, halted 29 July with reported deadlock, due to resume 3 Aug. Talks brought lift to much-criticised mediator South African President Mbeki, leading expanded team including AU and UN as demanded by MDC. State violence declined from June peak, but MDC say new MPs routinely harassed, over 1,500 supporters still detained, some 120 MDC killed since Apr. Reports of reprisal attacks near Bulawayo on ruling ZANU-PF cadres by Zimbabweans returning from May violence in South Africa. EU 22 July extended sanctions targets: now 168 individuals and, for first time, companies linked to Mugabe govt; U.S. expanded sanctions 25 July. G8 leaders 8 July vowed to tighten sanctions, but UNSC resolution 11 July blocked by Russia, China vetoes. Economic crisis deepened as inflation over 2m% amid acute shortages and reports of large-scale ZANU-PF capital flight.

• “Who will hold real power after talks in Zimbabwe?”, International Herald Tribune, 27 July 2008.
• “Humanitarian organisations remain out in the cold”, IRIN, 23 July 2008.
• For background, see Crisis Group Africa Briefing N°51, Negotiating Zimbabwe’s Transition, 21 May 2008.

State violence further escalated ahead of 27 June presidential run-off vote, amid mounting condemnation of regime. Mugabe sworn in for sixth term 29 June after 1-candidate poll marked by high police presence, intimidation. Opposition MDC leader Tsvangirai, arrested 5 times over month, 22 June withdrew over election conditions. MDC state media access and most rallies banned; ruling ZANU-PF militia attacked 22 June MDC Harare rally as violence spread to cities; 60 detained in 23 June raid on MDC HQ. MDC say 86 members killed, 2,000 detained since 29 March elections. Beatings, torture continued in rural areas: over 2,500 treated for injuries, up to 200,000 now displaced; food aid restricted to ZANU-PF supporters after aid agencies banned 5 June. Regional mediator South African President Mbeki held separate talks 18 June to broker negotiated solution, but stalled on leadership question. EU, several SADC leaders (excl. Mbeki), G8 states said vote illegitimate. UNSC late month statements condemned violence, urged AU-mediated settlement. ZANU-PF spokesman dismissed criticism, vowed “Zimbabwean” solution to crisis amid calls at 30 June AU summit for transitional govt, suspension from AU.

• Comment by Francois Grignon (Crisis Group), "Peace advocates deserve support", allAfrica.com, 25 June 2008.
•  “Mugabe is sworn in to sixth term after victory in one-candidate runoff”, New York Times, 30 June 2008.
• “The reign of thuggery”, New York Review of Books, 26 June 2008.

• For background, see Crisis Group Africa Briefing N°51, Negotiating Zimbabwe’s Transition, 21 May 2008.

After 5-week delay, electoral commission 2 May announced narrow victory for opposition MDC leader Tsvangirai over incumbent Mugabe in 29 March presidential election (47.9%; 43.7%), necessitating run-off. 27 June poll date finally set 16 May; Tsvangirai resolved to contest after shifting positions, returned to country 24 May – MDC earlier alleged assassination risk. Reports of ZANU-PF-MDC talks in Johannesburg mid-month prompted speculation over possible power-sharing deal; Tsvangirai 30 May urged “peaceful” ZANU-PF to negotiate – dismissed by justice minister. Organised state violence, repression surged: MDC faction leader Mutambara arrested 1 June over published attack on Mugabe; countrywide beatings, murders by ZANU-PF, security services reported throughout month, displacing thousands; army 7 May acknowledged torture camps established in rural areas but denied responsibility; MDC claimed some 50 members killed. Chief-of-staff Chedondo 31 May called for soldiers to vote for Mugabe or resign. Govt again rejected Western election observers 12 May, reportedly planning to deploy ZANU-PF forces at polling stations in police garb. U.S. Amb. McGee threatened with expulsion 25 May after publicly denouncing violence. South African President Mbeki – leading regional mediation effort – again under fire for failure to condemn Mugabe govt after 9 May state visit.

• “Tsvangirai returns to Zimbabwe for Mugabe runoff”, International Herald Tribune, 25 May 2008.
• “Opposition leader returns to Zimbabwe”, Washington Post, 25 May 2008.
• “Mugabe accuses opponents of violence, MPs arrested”, Reuters, 21 May 2008.
• “Zimbabwe opposition calls for Mbeki to step down as mediator”, AP, 9 May 2008.

Govt blocked release of flawed 29 March presidential election results and launched brutal countrywide crackdown amid widespread reports of opposition MDC leader Tsvangirai victory. MDC gains create possibility for transition from ZANU-PF rule – but more violence threatens. Independent observers say no candidate won 50% needed to avoid run-off. ZANU-PF preparing for second vote; MDC stance shifting. Electoral commission 2 Apr announced historic MDC majority in simultaneous parliamentary poll; ongoing recount confirmed shift. MDC factions – Tsvangirai and Mutumbara – 28 Apr announced reuniting after 2005 split. Organised state violence against foreign journalists, polling officers, opposition activists and citizens intensified. “War veterans” deployed to rural areas, reportedly establishing detention camps. Some 300 arrested, documents seized in 25 Apr raids on MDC and Zimbabwe Election Support Network offices; MDC claimed 15 members killed. South African President Mbeki criticised for failure to denounce Mugabe and polls; Zambia, Botswana reportedly calling for more pressure. SADC 12 Apr urged release of results, joining UN, AU, G8 call. UK, U.S. proposed arms embargo late month. UNSC divided at 29 Apr Zimbabwe discussion; South Africa, China opposed aid provision and appointment of special envoy. South Africa 18 Apr refused to unload Chinese ship carrying arms for Zimbabwe.

• “Opposition factions unite to demand Mugabe’s exit”, Guardian, 29 Apr. 2008.
• “Surge in state-sponsored violence”, Human Rights Watch, 25 Apr. 2008.
• “The stalemate turns bloody”, Economist, 24 Apr. 2008.
• For background, see Crisis Group Africa Report N°138, Zimbabwe: Prospects from a Flawed Election, 20 Mar. 2008.

Flawed presidential, parliamentary and municipal elections held 29 March. Early results disputed: risk of escalated repression, unrest – but also opportunity for change, with reports as CrisisWatch went to press that Mugabe under pressure from close associates to resign and/or negotiate transfer of power. Independent monitoring group, Zimbabwe Election Support Network, 31 March projected opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) candidate Tsvangirai to receive 49.4%, Mugabe (ZANU-PF) 41.8%; if no candidate receives 50%, run-off required. Mugabe vowed 30 March to treat early MDC victory claims as coup; blocked electoral commission from issuing presidential results. MDC said would not accept Mugabe victory. Parliamentary results released in batches, with MDC/ZANU-PF neck and neck at time of press. Justice Minister Chinamasa lost seat. Vote marred by extensive pre-ballot manipulation: government intensified opposition harassment, abuse of state resources, politicisation of food aid throughout month; 21 March threatened crackdown on post-election “Kenya-style” protests. Electoral Act amended 17 March to allow police in polling stations, reversing Jan reforms to protect against voter intimidation. Police, army chiefs warned would salute only Mugabe, but other senior security officials indicate more moderate positions privately. Mugabe approved law forcing foreign firms to sell controlling stake to indigenous blacks; authorised public sector pay rises; handed out farming implements; urged consumer price cut. U.S., EU election observers, most Western media barred. SADC mission reported vote “peaceful and credible”, but 2 mission observers rejected as “deeply flawed”.

• “Elections leave desperate Mugabe clinging to power in Zimbabwe”, New York Times, 1 Apr. 2008.
• “Mugabe warns over Kenya-style violence”, Mail & Guardian, 21 Mar. 2008.

Ex-finance minister and SADC head Simba Makoni announced decision to challenge incumbent President Mugabe in 29 March polls, creating 3-way race including opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) leader Morgan Tsvangirai. Makoni expelled from ruling ZANU-PF party, but maintains strong party support, including from General Solomon Mujuru. MDC factions failed to agree common election platform at early Feb talks: sides to field separate candidates at concurrent local and parliamentary polls. MDC faction leader Arthur Mutambara struck alliance with Makoni, signalled withdrawal from presidential race. EU extended sanctions regime for another year 18 Feb. Police chief warned 27 Feb officers would use “full force” to suppress election violence.

• “Zimbabwe police licensed to shoot”, BBC, 26 Feb. 2008.
• “Simba’s roar”, Economist, 8 Feb. 2008.

Mediation efforts between government and opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) collapsed, after President Mugabe announced 29 Mar date for polls, despite their calls for postponement until a new constitution adopted. MDC called elections “farce” but stopped short of boycott. Collapse came despite 17 Jan visit by mediator South African President Mbeki. MDC faction leader Tsvangirai briefly detained 23 Jan before Harare rally dispersed with tear gas. Independent monitoring group Zimbabwe Election Support Network reported problems with voter registration and education.

• “Mugabe blows hole in quiet diplomacy”, AFP, 31 Jan. 2008.
• “Zim election observers report problems”, AP, 10 Jan. 2008.
• For background, see Crisis Group Africa Report N°132, Zimbabwe: A Regional Solution?, 18 Sept. 2007.

Limited revisions made to Public Order and Security Act and other repressive laws 18 December as result of MDC, ZANU-PF talks; MDC criticised as piecemeal. Revisions re-allow foreign ownership of media and mean slightly fewer restrictions on public protest. MDC said many key points unaddressed in mediation talks; dismissed media reports deal to be signed shortly. President Robert Mugabe re-selected as ZANU-PF candidate for forthcoming elections at annual party conference 13 December; said elections would take place in March “without fail” in face of MDC demands for postponement. In its first case, SADC regional tribunal ruled in favour of white farmer fighting land seizure by government 13 December.

• “Zimbabwe amends media, security laws after talks”, Reuters, 18 Dec. 2007.
• “SADC court rules in favour of elderly Zim farmer”, AP, 14 Dec. 2007.
• For background, see Crisis Group Africa Report N°132, Zimbabwe: A Regional Solution?, 18 Sept. 2007.

MDC faction leader Morgan Tsvangirai held 16 November tête-à-tête with South African President Thabo Mbeki; expressed frustration at unilateral approach by ZANU-PF. Mediation talks resumed 19 November in Pretoria: provisional agreement over interim constitution secured but timing of elections remains key obstacle to full agreement. MDC wants elections postponed from March to June 2008. Mbeki visited Harare 22 November to stress importance of talks to President Mugabe. ZANU-PF party congress scheduled 11-15 December.

• “Progress on Zim election talks, but ...”, Mail & Guardian, 21 Nov. 2007.
• “Zim farmer takes case to SADC tribunal”, Mail & Guardian, 15 Nov. 2007.
• For background, see Crisis Group Africa Report N°132, Zimbabwe: A Regional Solution?, 18 Sept. 2007.

Reported deal between negotiators from ZANU-PF and opposition MDC marked by signing of draft constitution under South African mediation 30 September. Draft must now be approved by respective parties. Ahead of December ZANU-PF party congress, newspaper reported President Mugabe named 4 potential successors: Emmerson Mnangagwa, Sydney Sekeramayi, John Nkomo and Simba Makoni. MDC said government crackdown escalating, met with home affairs minister to lodge complaint. Government reportedly stepping up drive to expel 600 remaining white farmers after expiry of 30 September deadline for leaving country.

• “Harare intensifies drive to expel white farmers”, ZimOnline, 22 Oct. 2007.
• “Mugabe has named potential successors, says report”, Mail & Guardian, 19 Oct. 2007.
• For background, see Crisis Group Africa Report N°132, Zimbabwe: A Regional Solution?, 18 Sept. 2007.

Parliament unanimously adopted constitutional amendments 20 September giving Mugabe role in choosing successor. Move followed surprise deal with opposition MDC to accept bill after limited government concessions; reached as Pretoria-mediated talks between ZANU-PF and MDC continued. Law passed 26 September will force foreign firms to sell majority stake to indigenous blacks; MDC boycotted parliament in protest. Vocal regime critic Bulawayo Archbishop Pius Ncbue resigned 11 September over adultery scandal, later claimed charges were ploy by state.

• “Zimbabwe MPs back takeover of white firms”, Guardian, 28 Sept. 2007.
• “Change to constitution could let Mugabe pick successor”, Guardian, 19 Sept. 2007.

Zimbabwe topped agenda at Lusaka SADC summit 16-17 August. SADC leaders publicly downplayed country’s problems, but reportedly stressed democratic and economic reforms in private. South African President Thabo Mbeki said mediation process with opposition MDC “on track”, expressed confidence in 2008 free elections. 2-month voter registration period ended 17 August, with 80,000 registered; MDC condemned process. Reforms tabled in parliament give Mugabe wide role in choosing successor, government right to nationalise foreign firms. Aggressive July price-cuts campaign eased, but pay rise ban introduced 30 August. China reported to have changed assistance policy, limiting it to humanitarian aid.

• "China is to withdraw backing for Mugabe", Daily Telegraph, 31 Aug. 2007.
• "Zimbabwe rejects calls for change at summit", Guardian, 17 Aug. 2007.
• For background, see Crisis Group Africa Report N°122, Zimbabwe: An End to the Stalemate?, 5 Mar. 2007.

President Mugabe announced legislative plans 24 July to consolidate presidential and parliamentary elections; require only parliamentary vote to replace president who resigns between elections; and require all businesses to be at least 51% Zimbabwean-owned. Acute food, gasoline shortages followed late-June government order to halve prices: at least 3,000 businesspeople arrested, many imprisoned, for non-compliance. SADC-backed mediation between ruling ZANU-PF and opposition MDC stalled in Pretoria as ZANU-PF representatives hardened stance against new constitution, failed to attend scheduled meetings. South African mediators denied rumours of process collapse. MDC still divided as Morgan Tsvangirai faction announced it would launch campaign in September; faction led by Arthur Mutambara withdrew from Save Zimbabwe coalition.

• “Mugabe boosted by rivals’ poll split”, Financial Times, 30 July 2007.
• “Mugabe wants power to name successor”, Mail and Guardian, 25 July 2007.
• For background, see Crisis Group Africa Report N°122, Zimbabwe: An End to the Stalemate?, 5 Mar. 2007.

Officials from ruling ZANU-PF and opposition MDC held SADC-backed mediation talks in Pretoria mid-month, first real face-to-face talks in 4 years. But government also taking parallel steps to tighten grip on power by proposing constitutional amendments. Talks set to reconvene in July. South African President Mbeki expected to brief SADC leaders on progress in mediation effort early July. As talks began, 5 men including serving and retired army officers were charged with treason for alleged coup attempt to overthrow President Mugabe and replace with ZANU strongman Emmerson Mnangagwa – who strongly denied involvement. Leaked internal memo from Heads of Agencies Contact Group said country could face “total economic collapse” by year’s end, as currency plummeted.

• “Zimbabwe currency crashes”, Mail & Guardian, 22 June 2007.
• “Zimbabwe court cleared before ‘coup’ case hearing”, AlertNet, 22 June 2007.
• “Zimbabwe’s political dialogue overshadowed”, Financial Times, 17 June 2007.
• For background, see Crisis Group Africa Report N°122, Zimbabwe: An End to the Stalemate?, 5 Mar. 2007.

First signs of movement for South African-led SADC mediation initiative after Pretoria arranged mid-month meeting between representatives of ZANU-PF and both factions of opposition MDC. Meetings scheduled early June to cement framework for further talks. Earlier visit by South African aides to Harare had secured President Mugabe’s grudging acceptance of initiative. Harassment of opposition continued with new wave of mass arrests 25 May, while power severely rationed in much of country to 4 hours/day. 1800 Zimbabweans living illegally in South Africa deported mid-month.

• “Pretoria hosts secret Zimbabwe talks”, Financial Times, 21 May 2007.
• “Zim’s white farmers report new land invasions”, Mail & Guardian, 23 May 2007.
• For background, see Crisis Group Africa Report N°122, Zimbabwe: An End to the Stalemate?, 5 Mar. 2007.

No public signs of progress for SADC initiative led by South Africa President Mbeki to mediate between President Mugabe and opposition MDC. Ruling ZANU-PF reportedly took steps to consolidate chance of success in harmonised presidential and parliamentary elections now due March 2008. MDC factions led by Morgan Tsvangirai and Arthur Mutambara submitted shared roadmap to Pretoria, calling for transitional government and new constitution leading to free and fair elections. Crackdown on civil society continued: all NGO licences revoked, protests repeatedly broken up, arrests continued. EU added 5 deputy ministers to list of targeted sanctions against ZANU leaders.

• “Zimbabwe Army's deserters underscore country's troubles”, Christian Science Monitor, 25 Apr. 2007.
• “Mbeki's Zim mission falters”, Mail & Guardian, 20 Apr. 2007.
• “Mugabe hits out at opposition ‘anarchists’”, Financial Times, 18 Apr. 2007.
• For background, see Crisis Group Africa Report N°122, Zimbabwe: An End to the Stalemate?, 5 Mar. 2007.

Situation critical after vicious crackdown on opposition and ruling ZANU-PF endorsed President Mugabe as candidate for 2008 election. Opposition MDC leaders Morgan Tsvangirai and Arthur Mutambara and 50 others arrested at 11 March rally; Tsvangirai severely beaten while in custody. SADC convened extraordinary summit 28-29 March to discuss situation, issued statement of “solidarity” with President Mugabe and plans for mediation by South Africa President Mbeki; unclear how aggressively he will pursue role. Before SADC summit, Zambian President Mwanawasa had called country “sinking Titanic” and South Africa, traditionally reticent on internal disorder in Zimbabwe, noted signs of “meltdown”.

• “Crisis Group Board Calls for New Zimbabwe Compact”, 26 Mar. 2007.
• “West tries to unite Zanu-PF rebels to bring down Mugabe from within”, Guardian, 26 Mar. 2007.
• “Mugabe faces threat from within”, Mail & Guardian, 13 Mar. 2007.
• For background, see Crisis Group Africa Report N°122, Zimbabwe: An End to the Stalemate?, 5 March 2007.

In 83rd-birthday speech, President Mugabe blasted VP and possible successor Joyce Mujuru but declined to name replacement as anticipated. Police introduced 3-month ban on political rallies after over 40 arrested at 18 February opposition MDC rally launching Morgan Tsvangirai’s presidential election bid. Industrial unrest grew as Congress of Trade Unions vowed to defy strike ban with 3-4 April job boycott and Reserve Bank Governor Gono announced 4-month wage freeze.

• “Zimbabwe bans political rallies as unrest grows”, Guardian, 22 Feb. 2007.
• “Mugabe faces calls to quit as economy dives”, Financial Times, 14 Feb. 2007.
• For background, see Crisis Group Africa Report N°117, Zimbabwe: An Opposition Strategy, 24 Aug. 2006.

Entrenched divisions remained between rival factions of opposition Movement for Democratic Change, despite earlier indications of end 2006 rapprochement. MDC faction leader Morgan Tsvangirai announced “Save Zimbabwe Plan” to fight postponement of 2008 presidential elections by 2 years, promising protests and strikes in coming months, but gave no details. Economic situation increasingly dire, as doctors’ strike over demands for 8000% pay rise continued to paralyse health system.

• “Zim opposition urges action to end Mugabe rule”, Mail & Guardian, 17 Jan. 2007.
• “Zim opposition remains fractured”, Mail & Guardian, 9 Jan. 2007.
• For background, see Crisis Group Africa Report N°117, Zimbabwe: An Opposition Strategy, 24 Aug. 2006.

Much anticipated ZANU-PF party conference 15-17 December failed to fully approve motion to delay 2008 presidential elections by 2 years to coincide with previously scheduled legislative elections. Proponents publicly cited need to save money; delay would effectively extend President Mugabe’s rule. Delegates referred measure to central committee, where measure could stall amidst continuing succession battle within party. Opposition MDC and civic groups vowed to fight the motion but have little chance of parliament blocking passage if it passes party review.

• “Mugabe’s party resists bid to extend his rule”, Observer, 31 Dec. 2006.
• “Mugabe succession race turns into public brawl”, Mail & Guardian, 8 Dec. 2006.
• For background, see Crisis Group Africa Report N°117, Zimbabwe: An Opposition Strategy, 24 Aug. 2006.

Speculation over President Mugabe’s successor intensified ahead of ZANU-PF’s December annual congress, where announcement expected on timetable for 2008 presidential elections; 2-year deferral possible. Government announced compensation 16 November for white farmers who have faced land seizures, but did not make public terms of deal. In concurrent bid to raise production by providing collateral for resettled black farmers, government announced new series of 99-year leases on farming land. South Africa announced it would hand SADC Zimbabwe portfolio to troika of Tanzania, Namibia and Angola, leaving its own future role in question. Local Government Minister Ignatius Chombo reportedly planning task force to begin new effort to clear country of informal dwellings, in wake of rebuilding after Operation Murambatsvina.

• “Mugabe succession war intensifies”, Mail & Guardian, 16 Nov. 2006.
• “‘You will be thoroughly beaten’: The brutal suppression of dissent in Zimbabwe”, Human Rights Watch, Nov. 2006.
• For background, see Crisis Group Africa Report N°117, Zimbabwe: An Opposition Strategy, 24 Aug. 2006.

Opposition MDC failed to make strong showing in by-elections in Mashonaland East and Central, where ruling ZANU-PF easily retained its seats. Divisions within ZANU-PF again evident with Mugabe saying succession debate possible at December party conference. Reserve Bank governor Gono closed all Money Transfer Agencies, source of remittance income for many Zimbabweans, in effort to encourage conversion of foreign currencies at official rate, in latest effort to halt currency crisis.

• “By-election results raise questions over voter registration”, IRIN, 9 Oct. 2006.
• “Zimbabwe opposition says no protests due to fear”, AlertNet, 8 Oct. 2006.
• For background, see Crisis Group Africa Report N°117, Zimbabwe: An Opposition Strategy, 24 Aug. 2006.

MDC opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai led anti-Mugabe march 1 September, but government prevented larger nationwide trade unions protest against living conditions scheduled for 13 September by blocking roads, and assaulting and arresting key leaders and supporters. President Mugabe’s ZANU-PF reportedly discussed plans to postpone 2008 presidential election to 2010; seen as attempt to avoid potentially damaging succession battle. ZANU-PF claim delay would harmonise presidential with parliamentary elections but spokesman later denied plans. Mugabe pledged to return or compensate foreign company owners of over 100 farms occupied as part of fast-track land distribution program. Meanwhile, inflation hit record of 1200% and acute coal shortages exacerbated economic crisis.

• “UN Slams Mugabe”, Independent (Harare), 29 Sept. 2006.
• “Plans to harmonise elections leading to discord”, IRIN, 28 Sept. 2006.
• For background, see Crisis Group Africa Report N°117, Zimbabwe: An Opposition Strategy, 24 August 2006.

Little progress made in resolving internal crisis. UNSG Annan cancelled visit to Zimbabwe after meeting with President Mugabe on sidelines of AU summit. Former Tanzanian President Mkapa mooted as SADC envoy: to be addressed at SADC meeting 17 August. Signs of increasing cooperation between factions of opposition MDC: Tsvangirai and Mutambara met in public for first time since 2005 split, pledging alliance against ZANU-PF. Tsvangirai’s faction boycotted opening of new parliamentary year 25 July, in protest at dire economic situation. Earlier, prominent MDC MP arrested, accused of organising attack on MDC officials from rival Mutambara faction. Police arrested over 200 opposition supporters during protests demanding new constitution in Harare and 4 other cities.

• “Mugabe’s chosen mediator criticised”, IWPR, 31 July 2006.
• “New coalition to challenge ruling party”, IRIN, 31 July 2006.
• “Zimbabwe MP charged over attack”, BBC, 12 July 2006.
• For background, see Crisis Group Africa Report N°117, Zimbabwe: An Opposition Strategy, 24 August 2006.

Main opposition MDC faction leader Tsvangirai unveiled “roadmap” 9 June, calling for President Mugabe to accept new constitution, resign and allow transitional government to organise elections under international supervision, or face “mass action”. Mugabe repeated threat of crackdown on protests. Former ruling ZANU-PF member Daniel Shumba officially launched new opposition United People’s Party. Economic crisis with massive inflation continued.

• “Zimbabwe workers brace for nationwide strikes”, ZimOnline, 28 June 2006.
• “Zimbabwe between past and future”, openDemocracy, 23 June 2006.

Opposition continued to rally support as government maintained crackdown on protests. Decisive win by main faction of opposition MDC led by Tsvangirai in 21 May Harare by-election over ruling ZANU-PF and smaller MDC faction. Police banned rallies marking first anniversary of Operation Murambatsvina throughout country, arrested 100. Leaked draft of suspected UN initiative on Mugabe succession failed to have impact; government blocked UNSG Annan’s proposed July trip to Harare. Economic crisis deepened as inflation topped 1000%.

• “Mugabe moves ‘to crush dissenting views’“, Mail & Guardian, 31 May 2006.
• “Annan studies Zimbabwe crisis; official calls Mugabe retirement talk ‘premature’”, Voice of America, 25 May 2006.
• For most recent report, see Africa Report N°97, Zimbabwe’s Operation Murambatsvina: The Tipping Point?, 17 Aug. 2005; for background, see Africa Report N°93, Post-Election Zimbabwe: What Next?, 7 June 2005.

Faction of opposition MDC party led by Mutambara weakened by series of high-profile defections to main faction led by Tsvangirai. Latter worked to build support for anti-government demonstrations as severe economic crisis continued. President Mugabe vowed crackdown on protestors and increased security service salaries. Ruling ZANU-PF party plan to amend constitution to delay presidential election to 2010 abandoned; seen as effort to facilitate VP Mujuru’s succession to Mugabe. In apparent u-turn of government land seizure policy, white farmers invited to apply for land.

• “Presidential succession plan in Zim collapses”, Mail & Guardian, 21 Apr. 2006.
• “Mugabe’s threats ‘betray panic’”, Mail & Guardian, 20 Apr. 2006.
• For most recent report, see Africa Report N°97, Zimbabwe’s Operation Murambatsvina: The Tipping Point?, 17 Aug. 2005; for background, see Africa Report N°93, Post-Election Zimbabwe: What Next?, 7 June 2005.

“Anti-senate” faction of divided MDC party elected former leader Morgan Tsvangirai as new head during party congress. Government continued crackdown on opponents, arresting 16 on conspiracy charges after alleged discovery of weapons cache, and charging MP from MDC for criticising President Mugabe. Government proposed new terrorism bill that could allow life sentences for opponents. Inflation climbed to record high of 782%.

• “Zimbabwe publishes proposed anti-terrorism law”, AlertNet, 27 Mar. 2006.
• “Tsvangirai re-elected by MDC faction”, IRIN, 20 Mar. 2006.
• For most recent report, see Africa Report N°97, Zimbabwe’s Operation Murambatsvina: The Tipping Point?, 17 Aug. 2005; for background, see Africa Report N°93, Post-Election Zimbabwe: What Next?, 7 June 2005.

Former activist Arthur Mutambara voted head of pro-senate faction as battle with disputed leader Morgan Tsvangirai for leadership of opposition MDC party continued. Government announced plan to allow seizure of passports of critics. Zimbabwe avoided IMF’s threat of expulsion by paying off $9 million in debt; inflation expected to worsen beyond current 613% after government printed money to pay off loan.

• “Zimbabwe’s ‘outsider’ faction leader”, BBC, 27 Feb. 2006.
• “Crackdown on the press intensifies”, Human Rights Watch, 9 Feb. 2006.
• For background, see Crisis Group Africa Report N°97, Zimbabwe’s Operation Murambatsvina: The Tipping Point?, 17 Aug. 2005.

Internal split in opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) now permanent: Gibson Sibanda, who led “pro-Senate group”, declared himself leader in opposition to current MDC President Morgan Tsvangirai ahead of February MDC leadership congress. Both factions appealed increasingly to ethnic loyalties rather than political principles. Desertions of mid-ranking army and police officers added to overall political and economic crisis. Government harassment of media continued with arrest of banned Daily News journalist. Report by AU’s Human Rights Commission criticised government for abuses.

• “NGOs disappointed at AU’s lack of response”, IRIN, 27 Jan. 2006.
• “Africa is taking herself seriously”, allAfrica.com (Zimbabwe Standard), 22 Jan. 2006. 
• For background, see Crisis Group Africa Report N°97, Zimbabwe’s Operation Murambatsvina: The Tipping Point?, 17 Aug. 2005.

Opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) moved towards permanent split, as rival factions fought court battle over party assets, including “MDC” name. MDC president Morgan Tsvangirai dismissed attempt to expel him by disciplinary committee largely controlled by his critics. Meanwhile, ruling Zanu-PF continued repressive tactics. Supporters of newly-formed “third way” opposition movement, United Peoples’ Movement, assaulted by pro-Zanu-PF crowd and had passports seized. “Operation Siyapambili” (No Going Back) launched to prevent evictees of “Murambatsvina” returning to homes. Harassment of media continued with raid on unlicensed independent radio station, Voice of the People. UN Humanitarian Relief Coordinator Jan Egeland described country’s food/housing situation as in “meltdown”.

• “Zimbabwe opposition leader seen surviving party feud”, Reuters, 29 Dec. 2005.
• “Internal battle tangles Mugabe’s opposition”, International Herald Tribune, 26 Dec. 2005. 
• For background, see Crisis Group Africa Report N°97, Zimbabwe’s Operation Murambatsvina: The Tipping Point?, 17 Aug. 2005.

President Mugabe’s Zanu-PF party won elections to new 66-member senate, taking 43 out of 50 elective seats (16 appointed by government). But turnout estimated at just 15-20%. Divisions within opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) worsened: members defying election boycott expelled. Rival faction suspended MDC president Tsvangirai pending disciplinary action, fuelling fears of defections to new party, United Peoples’ Movement. U.S. ambassador returned to Washington after Mugabe government threatened expulsion for criticising regime: U.S. widened sanctions against officials, freezing assets of those hindering democratic reforms. Government evicted over 300 families in Mbare in defiance of High Court order. President Mugabe later granted UN permission to build emergency housing following Operation Murambatsvina.

• “Mugabe’s party wins Zimbabwe poll”, BBC, 28 Nov. 2005.
• “Mugabe’s self-defeated foes”, The Economist, 17 Nov. 2005.
• For background, see Crisis Group Africa Report N°97, Zimbabwe’s Operation Murambatsvina: The Tipping Point?, 17 Aug. 2005.

Major dispute within opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) over whether to contest or protest 26 November senate elections. Party voted to participate but leader Morgan Tsvangirai sought to overrule; other MDC representatives, led by Secretary General Welshman Ncube, moved to select 26 candidates, with prospect of defection to new “third way” United People’s Movement unless agreement to contest election. Allegations of MDC funding from Nigeria, Ghana, Taiwan added to party split; likely to have ramifications on proposed AU intervention. Electoral Court found Zanu-PF used violence and food aid to win votes but upheld March electoral win. High Court nullified evictions under Operation Murambatsvina, giving reprieve to 250 Harare families.

•  “Split over strategy weakens MDC”, BBC, 27 Oct. 2005.  
•  “MDC in crisis - can the centre hold?”, IRIN, 26 Oct. 2005.
• Comment by Lord Patten of Barnes (Crisis Group), “The Butcher of Harare”, Wall Street Journal Europe, 12 Oct. 2005.
• For background, see Crisis Group Africa Report N°97, Zimbabwe’s Operation Murambatsvina: The Tipping Point?, 17 Aug. 2005.

President Mugabe defended urban demolition to UN General Assembly as effort to boost law and order. Government paid IMF $120 million 1 September; IMF granted Zimbabwe 6 month reprieve from expulsion in exchange for implementation of broader economic reforms. Mugabe signed into law constitutional changes that create senate, allow nationalisation of land and empower state to withdraw passports as government considered regulation requiring Zimbabweans to have exit visas to leave country.

• “Mugabe blames Western sanctions for Zimbabwe’s crisis”, Zimonline, 15 Sept. 2005.
• “Exit visas undemocratic, say civic groups”, IRIN, 15 Sept. 2005.
• For background, see Crisis Group Africa Report N°97, Zimbabwe’s Operation Murambatsvina: The Tipping Point?, 17 August 2005.

Parliament passed constitutional amendments 30 August strengthening President Mugabe’s hold on power; included clause removing right of appeal for victims of government land seizures. Mugabe rejected attempt by AU envoy, former Mozambique President Joaquim Chissano, to foster dialogue between government and opposition MDC. UN and Mugabe government unable to reach agreement on aid delivery to displaced victims of government’s Operation Murambatsvina. IMF held week-long meetings in Harare over state’s $300m debt.

• “Zimbabwe tightens Mugabe’s grip”, BBC, 30 Aug. 2005.
• “Govt won't agree on appeal for victims of cleanup”, IRIN, 29 Aug. 2005.
• Comment by Gareth Evans (Crisis Group), “A poor excuse for inaction”, Business Day, 18 Aug. 2005.
• For background, see Crisis Group Africa Report N°93, Post-Election Zimbabwe: What Next?, 7 June 2005.

Government announced completion of Operation “Murambatsvina” (“Drive Out Rubbish”) 28 July following damning UN report. UNSG Annan labelled operation “catastrophic injustice”, while UN Envoy Anna Tibaijuka accused government of violating international law. Forced evictions continued throughout July; camps for displaced closed 22 July; homeless transported to rural areas or now-demolished townships. AU Envoy Bahame Tom Nyanduga left country 7 July without completing evaluation of demolitions, reportedly due to government obstruction. Zimbabwe signed trade deals with China to help rescue ailing economy.

• “Mugabe returns with peanuts”, Zimbabwe Independent, 29 July 2005.
• “Zimbabwe ‘halts urban slum blitz’”, BBC, 28 July 2005.
• For background, see Crisis Group Africa Report N°93, Post-Election Zimbabwe: What Next?, 7 June 2005.

Government “Murambatsvina” (“Drive Out Rubbish”) operation - ostensibly to clear urban slums - expanded; at least 300,000 left homeless, 32,000 arrested (though most subsequently released). U.S., EU condemned mass demolitions; UN appointed Anna Kajumulo Tibaijuka Special Envoy for Human Settlement Issues in Zimbabwe, calling situation “new apartheid”; Tibaijuka met Mugabe 29 June. AU initially rejected calls to pressure Zimbabwe, but 29 June announced fact-finding mission by Special IDP Rapporteur in African Commission on Human Rights, Brahame Tom Nyanduga. Opposition-planned general strike failed 9 June: poor organisation and feared police response blamed. Parliament to consider nationalisation of most rural land.

• Crisis Group letter to African and international leaders, “Protect the People of Zimbabwe”, 30 June 2005.
• “‘Clean-Up’ Operation Splits Zanu PF”, The Zimbabwe Standard, 20 June 2005.  
• For background, see Crisis Group Africa Report N°86 Zimbabwe: Another Election Chance, 30 Nov. 2004.

Continued economic decline amid famine fears and 45% currency devaluation; ongoing political upheaval with government retribution against opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) supporters in wake of 31 March elections. Government announced plans to demolish shacks home to 1 million urban poor; 22,000 arrested (most later released) Mashonaland province, Mashvingo and Harare black market clamp-down. Campaign against street-vendors sparked clashes. MDC claimed government seeking pretext for declaring state of emergency.

• “Zimbabwe army sent to quell urban uprising”, The Sunday Independent, 29 May 2005.
• “Archbishop prays for Mugabe’s death”, IWPR, 24 May 2005.
• For background, see Crisis Group Africa Report N°86 Zimbabwe: Another Election Chance, 30 Nov. 2004.

Ruling Zanu-PF claimed victory in flawed 31 March polls, taking 78 of 120 seats; opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) secured 41. President Mugabe appointed further 30 MPs giving Zanu-PF two-thirds majority required to change constitution. U.S. and EU criticised election, African Union said election “technically competent” and South African observers endorsed it. MDC filed 16 court petitions challenging results and severed ties with Pretoria; U.S. reviewed sanctions options. Mugabe said would retire at end of current term in 2008. Zimbabwe re-elected to UN Human Rights Commission amidst protest by U.S. and other Western states. Famine fears continued; government announced planned import of 1.2 million tons of maize despite foreign currency problems, while denying food shortage.

• Comment by Peter Kagwanja and Alba Lamberti (Crisis Group), “Let’s turn the screw on Robert Mugabe”, The European Voice, 21 Apr. 2005.
• “Mugabe turns back on west and looks east”, The Guardian, 19 Apr. 2005.
• For background, see Crisis Group Africa Report N°85, Zimbabwe: Another Election Chance, 30 Nov. 2004.

Fewer incidents of violence than in past elections, but intimidation widespread in run-up to 31 March vote; little doubt elections neither free nor fair. Catholic Bulawayo Archbishop Ncube called for peaceful “Orange Revolution” against Mugabe regime. City-dwellers banned from rural areas during campaign; food crisis ongoing in rural areas with food aid used as political tool by ruling Zanu-PF. Five opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) supporters surrendered to police claiming they had been weapons’ trained with aim of destabilising Zimbabwe; rejected by MDC. Supreme Court ruled 3 million expatriates ineligible to vote. Newly-established Electoral Court reversed first major ruling, suspending earlier order allowing jailed MDC MP Roy Bennett to run. Media clampdown continued as government jammed broadcasts from London-based SW Radio Africa.

• “Zimbabwe opposition takes early poll lead”, The Washington Post, 1 Apr. 2005.
• “Archibishop Ncube urges Mugabe overthrow”, IWPR, 28 Mar. 2005.
• “Not a level playing field”, Human Rights Watch briefing, 21 Mar. 2005.
• For background, see Crisis Group Africa Report N°85, Zimbabwe: Another Election Chance, 30 Nov. 2004.

President Mugabe announced election date of 31 March. Opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) reversed earlier threat to boycott elections, saying would participate “under protest”. Domestic situation unimproved with media repressed (most foreign media pushed out and newly opened Bulawayo Weekly Times shut down) and MDC meetings harassed (in contravention of SADC electoral guidelines); MDC campaign chief Ian Makone detained, then released. Information minister Jonathon Moyo, sacked from cabinet and from Zanu-PF following internal dispute, to stand as independent candidate. South African trade union delegation deported 2 February; similar mission by South Africa’s opposition Democratic Alliance refused entry 18 February. South African President Mbeki, while suggesting Zimbabwe’s land reform policies were “incorrect”, criticised U.S. approach of classing Zimbabwe as “outpost of tyranny”. EU renewed targeted sanctions 21 February - up for review after elections.

• “Arms deal raises fears of coup if Mugabe loses vote”, The Independent, 24 Feb. 2005.
• “Mbeki pans U.S. efforts to put heat on Mugabe”, Business Day, 22 Feb. 2005.
• “Reporters quit Zimbabwe following interrogations”, The Washington Post, 22 Feb. 2005.
• “Mugabe's spin doctor to go solo”, BBC, 19 Feb. 2005.
• For background, see Crisis Group Africa Report N°85, Zimbabwe: Another Election Chance, 30 Nov. 2004.

Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) pushed for postponement of elections from March to June 2005; electoral bill and independent electoral commission signed into law 10 January, with 5 commission-members appointed 21 January in moves designed to placate Southern African Development Community. South African ANC Secretary-General Motlanthe cited concerns over requirement of police permission for MDC meetings. Repressive media law came into force 7 January stipulating prison for non-accredited journalists; newly-opened Weekly Times newspaper faced government ban after first edition. South African trades’ unionists reaffirmed determination for fact-finding mission to Zimbabwe, backed by ANC; previous COSATU delegation deported October 2004. In U.S. Senate hearings Sec. State Condoleezza Rice termed Zimbabwe “outpost of tyranny”. Former information minister Jonathon Moyo began defamation proceedings against Zanu-PF figures and fought exclusion from election as internal party row continued.

• “Public switches off as electioneering begins”, IWPR, 24 Jan. 2005.
• “The rise and fall of Mugabe’s spin doctor”, BBC, 21 Jan. 2005.
• “Zimbabwe: the terror and abuse goes on”, The Guardian, 18 Jan. 2005.
• For background, see Crisis Group Africa Report N°85, Zimbabwe: Another Election Chance, 30 Nov. 2004.

“Night of long knives” as information minister removed from central Zanu-PF party body by President Mugabe; move followed opposition from faction allied to Emerson Mnangagwa to Mugabe’s nomination of Joyce Mujuru for vice-president. Zanu-PF moved to ensure March 2005 election victory: restrictive NGO law passed and opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) excluded from advertising in state media; breach of regional SADC electoral guidelines. State-appointed electoral commission shifted constituency boundaries to Zanu-PF benefit; MDC said it would announce whether would contest March elections in January.

• “Mugabe’s party to gain from constituency changes”, CNN, 20 Dec. 2004.
• “Zimbabwe approves NGO Act despite protests”, Afrol, 10 Dec. 2004.
• “Zimbabwe’s non-governmental organizations bill”, Human Rights Watch report, 2 Dec. 2004.
• For background, see Crisis Group Africa Report N°85, Zimbabwe: Another Election Chance, 30 Nov. 2004.

Morgan Tsvangiarai, leader of opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), named “enemy number 1” by Justice Minister Chinamasa for support of targeted sanctions against government. Chinamasa raised possibility of Tsvangiarai being barred re-entry from current European trip. Zimbabwe’s government said would expand youth camps in run-up to planned March 2005 elections; MDC claimed indoctrinated youth to be used for intimidation purposes. South African NGO Solidarity Peace Trust claimed 60 to 70% of productive adults had left country.

• “Tsvangirai warned not to call for further sanctions”, IRIN, 18 Nov. 2004.
• “Zimbabwe plans more youth camps”, BBC, 13 Nov. 2004.
• For background, see ICG Africa Report N°85, Blood and Soil: Land, Politics and Conflict Prevention in Zimbabwe and South Africa, 17 Sept. 2004.

Morgan Tsvangirai, leader of Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) opposition movement, acquitted of trumped-up high treason charges 15 October; though further charges remain. Following acquittal Tsvangirai made first trip outside country since 2001, meeting South African President Mbeki 25 October to discuss planned March 2005 elections and application of South African Development Community (SADC) election guidelines; MDC says application is condition of participation; Tsvangirai suggested election delay until June 2005 to allow for reform. Tsvangirai met SADC chairman and Mauritian PM Berenger 27 October. Meanwhile, South African trades union (COSATU) mission to Zimbabwe deported 26 October; COSATU threatened barricade of Zimbabwe’s border.

• “Cosatu threatens to blockade Zimbabwe”, Business Day, 28 Oct. 2004.  
• “Tsvangirai calls for postponement of March 2005 poll”, Zim Online, 28 Oct. 2004.
• “Mugabe rival meets SA's Mbeki”, BBC, 25 Oct. 2004.
• “Tsvangirai acquitted—for now”, The Economist, 15 Oct. 2004.
• For background, see ICG Africa Report N°85, Blood and Soil: Land, Politics and Conflict Prevention in Zimbabwe and South Africa, 17 Sept. 2004.

Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) opposition figures said Zimbabwe in further breach of Southern African Development Community guidelines agreed August, claiming constituency re-districting commission bias. MDC said breach justified election boycott. Parliamentary elections planned March 2005. Amidst media crackdown and protests against proposed restrictive NGO law, Zimbabwean court dropped charges against directors of Daily News, shut down 1 year ago, for lack of evidence.

• “Zimbabwe court drops paper case”, BBC, 20 Sept. 2004.
• “Opposition complain over composition of commission”, IRIN, 16 Sept. 2004.
• Comment by John Prendergast and Gideon Maltz (ICG), “More food for thought over Zimbabwe”, The European Voice, 16 Sept. 2004.
• For background, see ICG Africa Report N°78, Zimbabwe: In Search of a New Strategy, 19 Apr. 2004.

Opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) announced 25 August it would protest government harassment and lack of genuine electoral reform by not contesting upcoming by-elections and pulled out of Harare city council. MDC warned it might not contest any elections until Zimbabwe implemented Southern African Development Community (SADC) electoral guidelines agreed at regional conference Mauritius 16-17 August. SADC said countries which failed to meet guidelines would be ejected. Concern remains high over harvest shortfall in country, and proposed law restricting human rights organisations before March 2005 elections.

• “Zimbabwe opposition to boycott elections until system changes”, The Guardian, 26 Aug. 2004.
• “The politics of food assistance in Zimbabwe”, Human Rights Watch briefing paper, 12 Aug. 2004.
• For background, see ICG Africa Report N°78, Zimbabwe: In Search of a New Strategy, 19 Apr. 2004.

President Mugabe, 80, opened parliament 20 July promising reform of electoral laws before March 2005 elections; greeted with surprise, scepticism and disagreement with opposition MDC over how to proceed. Meanwhile, government introduced bill to increase state power over NGOs and churches. UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) continued to underline famine risk, predicting 325,000 ton grain shortfall.

•   “Mugabe promises poll reform”, The Guardian, 21 July 2004.
•  “NGOs slam moves to introduce greater controls”, IRIN, 19 July 2004.
•  “Zimbabwe’s harvest ‘insufficient’”, BBC, 8 July 2004.
• For background, see ICG Africa Report N°78, Zimbabwe: In Search of a New Strategy, 19 Apr. 2004.

UN envoy claimed looming food disaster affecting 5 million, dismissing Mugabe claims of production increase. Uncertainty continued over land reform as authorities disavowed 9 June statement by government minister asserting all productive farmland would be nationalised; government said 15 June policy unchanged and applied only to land acquired under “fast-track” program. MDC opposition claimed judicial obstruction of electoral disputes, as High Court appeal against Mugabe’s re-election thrown out. Zimbabwean newspaper, Tribune, shut down by government 11 June.

• “The method behind Mugabe’s madness”, The Economist, 24 June 2004.
• “Southern Africa in crisis, UN envoy warns”, The Washington Post, 23 June 2004.
• “Opposition cries foul over legal delays to electoral disputes”, IRIN, 23 June 2004.
• “Current policy on land ownership unchanged”, IRIN, 15 June 2004.
• For background, see ICG Africa Report N°78, Zimbabwe: In Search of a New Strategy, 19 Apr. 2004.

Ruling Zanu-PF tightened grip on parliament 18 May with disputed victory in Lupane, Matabeleland, nearing two thirds required for constitutional change. Opposition MDC claimed voter intimidation. Parliamentary brawl between opposition MP Roy Bennett and justice minister led to government-orchestrated demonstrations in Harare, culminating in attack on MDC headquarters 20 May, unchecked by police. Press intimidation continued with brief imprisonment of Standard editor Bornwell Chakaodza. Concerns grew that Zimbabwe’s failure to allow UN food assessment hides shortfalls intended for use as tool of political manipulation; fears Zanu-PF will bring forward March 2005 elections to October 2004 to capitalise.

• “Zimbabwe MP defiant after brawl”, BBC, 21 May 2004.
• “Mugabe’s gambit ends in stalemate”, The Observer, 16 May 2004.
• “Food must not be a political weapon”, Amnesty International, 14 May 2004.
• For background, see ICG Africa Report N°78, Zimbabwe: In Search of a New Strategy, 19 Apr. 2004.

Zimbabwe President Mugabe celebrated 24th anniversary of independence from Britain by vowing land reform would continue, and pledging never to rejoin Commonwealth. Finance Minister Chris Kuruneri arrested 24 April on charges of corruption and illegal dealings in foreign currency.

• "Mugabe minister accused of illegal dealings", The Guardian, 26 Apr. 2004.
• "Zimbabwe's Robert Mugabe vows to continue land reform policy", San Francisco Chronicle, 19 Apr. 2004.
• For background, see ICG Africa Briefing, Decision Time in Zimbabwe, 8 Jul. 2003.

Opposition threatened to boycott next year’s elections, citing growing violence against its members. Government moved to further tighten control over upcoming election, proposing changes to electoral act affecting voter registration and education. Central bank banned use of foreign currency to buy goods and services, as 2 commercial banks collapsed. President Mugabe’s salary increased by 265% to Z$73.7 million ($169,118) per year up from Z$20.2 million. 70 men arrested as suspected mercenaries 7 March when their plane landed in Harare; authorities alleged men part of plot to overthrow government of Equatorial Guinea.

• “Zimbabwe hikes Mugabe’s salary by 265% - report”, SABC, 27 Mar. 2004.
• “UK led mercenaries ordered GBP 100,000 weapons - court told”, The Scotsman, 23 Mar. 2004.
• “Proposed electoral act amendments questioned”, IRIN, 23 Mar. 2004.
• “Zimbabwe’s opposition”, The Economist, 11 Mar. 2004.
• For background, see ICG Africa Briefing, Decision Time in Zimbabwe, 8 Jul. 2003.

Amid rumours of ill-health, President Mugabe, 80, said 20 February he will have retired in 5 years. EU renewed sanctions against government 23 February. Government suspended acquisition of farms and claimed it wanted to clean up process of land reform. Authorities extended by up to 1 month period for which people can be detained without trial for range of political and economic crimes. Official inflation reached 622.8% p.a. in January – Reserve Bank predicting official inflation of over 700% by March. BBC claimed youth militias being trained to torture and kill at government camps.

• “Zimbabwe’s torture training camps”, BBC, 27 Feb. 2004.
• “Nkomo seeks to end ‘confusion’ in land reform”, IRIN, 23 Feb. 2004.
• “Zimbabwe’s Mugabe has chest pains”, Reuters, 22 Feb. 2004.
• “Zimbabwe's Mugabe extends detention period amid protests”, VOA News, 17 Feb. 2004.
• For background, see ICG Africa Briefing, Decision Time in Zimbabwe, 8 Jul. 2003.

South Africa’s President Mbeki announced 22 January that President Mugabe had agreed to formal negotiations with opposition MDC – but MDC says Mugabe not serious. Trial of MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai for alleged plot to assassinate Mugabe resumed 19 January. Police banned MDC from launching its new economic program 29 January. Parliament amended land acquisition law to speed up land seizures. Government finally allowed Daily News to publish, after further court order. Official inflation dropped 20% to 599%; drop queried by analysts.

• “Police in Zimbabwe halt opposition policy launch”, The Guardian, 30 Jan. 2004.
• “Zimbabwe paper allowed to reopen”, International Herald Tribune, 23 Jan. 2004.
• “Zimbabwe treason trial to resume”, Reuters, 18 Jan. 2004.
• For background, see ICG Africa Briefing, Decision Time in Zimbabwe, 8 Jul. 2003.

Further deterioration. Withdrew from Commonwealth after leaders extended suspension of Zimbabwe for additional 18 months 7 December. IMF moved to expel Zimbabwe 3 December, official inflation now 619.5%. Police shut down independent Daily News day after court allowed it to resume publication. Government backed militias committing widespread rapes and other human rights abuses. South Africa’s President Mbeki met with President Mugabe 18 December to urge negotiations with opposition MDC, but no evidence of progress.

• “Zimbabwe militia’s horror tales”, International Herald Tribune, 29 Dec. 2003.
• “South Africa leader lobbies Mugabe”, International Herald Tribune, 19 Dec. 2003.
• “Mugabe’s men defy death threat judge over media freedom”, The Scotsman, 19 Dec. 2003.
• “Zimbabwe and the Commonwealth”, The Economist, 11 December 2003.
• For background see ICG Africa Briefing, Decision Time in Zimbabwe, 8 Jul. 2003.

Zimbabwe’s economy deteriorated further, government continued to deal harshly with dissent. Police now seizing foreign currency from tourists and businesses. Official inflation reached 526%, unemployment 70%. Dozens arrested and detained for several days for protesting against President Mugabe, subsequently charged and released. Commonwealth banned Mugabe from attending December heads of government meeting in Nigeria. Mugabe threatening to pull out of Commonwealth.

• “Mugabe threatens to pull out of Commonwealth”, The Scotsman, 29 Nov. 2003.
• “Zimbabwe activists win reprieve”, BBC, 21 Nov. 2003.
• “Zimbabwe seizes foreign currency”, The Guardian, 17 Nov. 2003.
• For background see ICG Africa Briefing, Decision Time in Zimbabwe, 8 Jul. 2003.

Suppression of dissent continues – scores arrested on 8 and 22 October for protesting deteriorating economic conditions. Inflation now 455% and rising. MDC spokesman charged with trying to overthrow President Mugabe by encouraging general strike. Daily News newspaper closed in September, reopened 25 October after court ruled closure illegal, only to be shut down again by government 27 October: directors jailed for two days before bailed. Human Rights Watch issued report accusing government of using food aid as political weapon. Mugabe announced restructure of central bank, utilities and cabinet in effort to improve economic performance. Continued speculation that Mugabe in ill health – denied by government.

• “Economy sparks overhaul by Mugabe”, CNN, 1 Nov. 2003.
• "Zimbabwe news chiefs bailed", BBC, 29 Oct. 2003.
• “Not Eligible: The Politicization of Food in Zimbabwe”, Human Rights Watch report, 24 Oct. 2003.
• “Zimbabwe’s dismal economy produces glut of human misery”, International Herald Tribune, 20 Oct. 2003.
• For background see ICG Africa Briefing, Decision Time in Zimbabwe, 8 Jul. 2003

Government shut down only private daily newspaper. Charged five of paper’s directors and plans to charge its journalists for operating without licence. President Mugabe to be excluded from Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting in Nigeria in December as Zimbabwe still subject to Commonwealth sanctions. Zimbabwe's vice president, Simon Muzenda, died on 20 September. Government issued new temporary banknotes, valid only to 31 January 2004. Government plans to set up special courts to deal with economic and financial crimes.

• “Zimbabwe to set up special courts to deal with economic crimes”, Independent Online, 29 September 2003.
• Andrew Meldrum, “Zimbabwe arrests banned journalists”, The Guardian, 26 September 2003.
• “Zimbabwe issues new ‘money’”, iAfrica.com, 24 September 2003.
• Editorial, “The Tyranny of Robert Mugabe”, The New York Times, 22 September 2003 (subscription).
• “Commonwealth dumps Mugabe”, AllAfrica.com, 19 September 2003.
• For background see ICG Africa Briefing, Decision Time in Zimbabwe, 8 July 2003.

Economy continues to deteriorate. Inflation hit 399% in July. Severe currency shortage. On 16 August law passed prohibiting hoarding of cash. Government has also moved to take control of food aid distribution, directing UN and international charities to hand food over to local officials for distribution. 3.5m currently receiving food aid, expected to increase to 5.5m by December. Opposition accused Government of rigging 30 August council elections.

• Andrew Meldrum, “Mugabe to run food aid distribution”, The Guardian, 20 August 2003.
• John Prendergast (ICG), “Leaders of Africa must act now to save Zimbabwe”, Business Day, 6 August 2003.
• Zimbabwe and the Prospects for Non-violent Political Change, USIP report, August 2003.
• For background see ICG Africa Briefing, Decision Time in Zimbabwe, 8 July 2003.