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Parliamentary committee 26 Jan approved constitutional amendments proposed by President Bakiev, suggested authorizing still-to-be-created State Council to appoint interim presidential successor; opposition denounced measures as promoting consolidation of Bakiev’s hold on state, preparing handover of power to chosen successor. Tensions between govt, opposition after court 11 Jan sentenced former defence minister and opposition member Ismail Isakov to 8 years in prison on corruption charges. Triggered hunger strikes by nearly 40 opposition activists and small-scale rallies in capital and Isakov’s native Alai region 11-14 Jan for his release and against alleged govt rights abuses.

• “Kyrgyzstan relegated to the back of the freedom class”, RFE/RL, 12 Jan. 2010.
• For latest report, see Crisis Group Asia Report N°176, Women and Radicalisation in Kyrgyzstan, 3 Sept. 2009.

String of violent attacks on journalists and public figures, part of worsening intimidation of media and opposition allegedly in retaliation for criticising govt: prominent journalist Gennady Pavlyuk died 22 Dec after being thrown from building in Kazakh capital Almaty 16 Dec, with Kazakh authorities implicating Kyrgyz security officials in murder; another journalist beaten 16 Dec; CIS Institute director attacked 9 Dec; opposition leader and former Security Council Secretary Bolot Januzakov beaten 9 Dec. Attacks triggered international outcry, 23 Dec OSCE statement on ‘safety crisis’ for journalists. President Bakiyev 15 Dec initiated constitutional changes to grant power of appointing interim successor to presidential council.

• “More rights activists attacked in Kyrgyzstan”, EDM, 17 Dec. 2009.
• For latest report, see Crisis Group Asia Report N°176, Women and Radicalisation in Kyrgyzstan, 3 Sept. 2009.

6 Nov parliamentary resolution, part of President Bakiev plan for overhauling govt institutions, cut number of parliamentary committees from 12 to 9, leaving opposition Social Democratic Party without committee chairmanships. Key opposition leader Omurbek Tekebayev 19 Nov requested Constitutional Court rule on legitimacy of govt overhaul. Govt 12 Nov announced significant utility price increases 2010-2012. Ruling Ak Zhol party 11 Nov refused to back parliamentary initiative to join UNGA protocol abolishing capital punishment, prompting fears death penalty to be reintroduced. Local media voiced concern over continuing intimidation of journalists after 1 journalist killed, 1 attacked early Nov, reportedly related to professional activities. Activist from rights group Memorial deported 19 Nov while gathering information on alleged abuses against Muslims.

• “Kyrgyz parliamentary changes undermine opposition”, IWPR, 21 Nov. 2009.
• For latest report, see Crisis Group Asia Report N°176, Women and Radicalisation in Kyrgyzstan, 3 Sept. 2009.

Border guards 19 Oct arrested 4 armed men in Tajik enclave, part of search for insurgents reported to have entered from Tajikistan and opened fire on border guards 14 Oct. Tajik official later claimed detainees were IMU militants. Authorities 20 Oct announced new checkpoint on border with Tajikistan. President Bakiev 20 Oct announced details of administrative reform package including restructuring of state institutions; 29 Oct appointed son Maxim to lead Central Agency for Development, Investment and Innovation, prompting opposition criticism. Reports emerged 1 Oct that remains discovered in north believed to belong to missing parliament deputy Ruslan Shabotoev, who disappeared Sept 2008.

• “Kyrgyz reforms leave president stronger”, IWPR, 26 Oct. 2009.
• For latest report, see Crisis Group Asia Report N°176, Women and Radicalisation in Kyrgyzstan, 3 Sept. 2009.

President Bakiev announced changes to division of power among govt bodies 1 Sept, including transfer of some presidential powers to govt, elimination of presidential advisory offices and State Secretariat, and 2 new entities - Supreme Assembly and Presidential Council. Govt clamped down on opposition: key leader Bakytbek Beshimov fled to U.S. citing death threats; opposition deputy Kubanychbek Kadyrov stripped of immunity, to be tried for inciting violence during July presidential election. Former PM, presidential candidate Almazbek Atambaev elected to chair opposition United People’s Movement (OND). PM Chudinov 10 Sept said U.S. to provide $21m for Antiterrorist Centre and strengthen border security. Joint operation involving border troops from Russia and all Central Asian states apart from Turkmenistan concluded 20 Sept, amid increasing attention on threat to Northern Distribution Network and regional security. First official regional Islamic school opened in south 7 Sept. Heads of national security council and state security committee proposed reinstatement of death penalty. Authorities tightened border control with Tajikistan after 26 Sept skirmish in border village.

• “Doubts about Kyrgyz political reform plan”, IWPR, 16 Sept. 2009.

At informal Collective Security Treaty Organization summit Kyrgyz, Russian presidents 1 Aug signed tentative deal on second Russian military base in Kyrgyzstan; details vague, location still to be decided. President Bakiev inaugurated for second term 2 Aug as opposition continued to dispute his July election victory. 6 members of banned Hizb ut-Tahrir group detained by police 7 Aug for distributing propaganda.

• “Fergana Valley: stringent border measures fuelling tension in enclaves”, EurasiaNet, 13 Aug. 2009.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Briefing N°79, Kyrgyzstan: A Deceptive Calm, 14 Aug. 2008.

Incumbent President Bakiyev claimed victory in 23 July presidential election; official results gave him about 76% of vote in poll condemned by opposition, local monitors, EU, OSCE. Accusing officials of fraud, main opposition candidate Atambaev withdrew from race on election day. Opposition declared open-ended protests against results, but with little immediate public response; some protesters arrested. Reports emerged of agreement on second Russian military base in south, in face of Uzbek protests. In Bishkek to discuss regional security and anti-terror cooperation, U.S. Undersec State Burns met with President Bakiyev 11 July. Security forces 18 July arrested militants suspected of coordinating logistics supply for Taliban in Afghanistan, including Kyrgyz, Kazakh, Uzbek citizens.

• “Tulips squashed”, Economist, 30 July 2009.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Briefing N°79, Kyrgyzstan: A Deceptive Calm, 14 Aug. 2008.

Govt reached deal with U.S. 23 June allowing U.S. to continue use of Manas airbase to resupply troops in Afghanistan; revised lease terms include annual fee more than tripled to $60m, plus increased aid. Russian FM described move as “exceedingly unpleasant surprise”, said Moscow not consulted. Followed protracted negotiations, letter from U.S. President Obama, request from Afghan president Karzai to keep airbase open. 5 members of Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan and 1 security forces officer reportedly killed during 24 June shoot-out in Jalal-Abad region. Campaign for 23 July presidential election started 18 June; 6 candidates approved. 4 alleged members of Islamic Jihad Group killed by govt forces late month in Osh region.

• “Threat of Taliban incursion raised in Central Asia – again”, RFE/RL, 12 June 2009.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Briefing N°79, Kyrgyzstan: A Deceptive Calm, 14 Aug. 2008.

Former defence minister Gen Ismail Isakov 19 May quit presidential race to help main opposition candidate Almazbek Atambaev ahead of July polls; but opposition’s attempt to field single candidate thwarted by 7 May announcement of Temir Sariyev candidacy. Supreme Court 20 May reduced sentences for 32 people convicted of spreading ethnic, religious violence in Nookat Oct 2008. Tensions with Uzbekistan continued following Apr raids by Uzbek authorities in disputed border region and Bishkek claims that searches targeted Kyrgyz nationals. U.S. Senate committee 13 May approved $30m to improve Kyrgyz air traffic control system, if deal is reached for U.S. to stay at Manas airbase.

• “Opposition remains divided in Kyrgyzstan ahead of presidential elections”, EDM, 22 May 2009.
• “Kyrgyz-Uzbek border incident sparks political row”, IWPR, 15 May 2009.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Briefing N°79, Kyrgyzstan: A Deceptive Calm, 14 Aug. 2008.

Russia 30 Apr provided $300m loan to Kyrgyzstan; 20 Apr announced will increase number of military aircraft at its Kant airbase. U.S. late-Apr reported progress in negotiations with govt to extend U.S. use of Manas airbase. Ak-Jol MP shot dead in Bishkek 14 Apr; suspect arrested 21 Apr. Opposition parties 20 Apr announced candidate for July presidential election: Almazbek Atambaev, former PM under President Bakiyev, Social Democratic Party leader. Interior Ministry Chief of staff seriously injured by acid attack 23 Apr. Police 26 Apr detained 80 following anti-ethnic Kurd rally in Petrovka.

• “Kyrgyz opposition unveils presidential hopeful”, RFE/RL, 20 Apr. 2009.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Briefing N°79, Kyrgyzstan: A Deceptive Calm, 14 Aug. 2008.

Political tensions rose after death of former head of presidential administration Medet Sadyrkulov 13 March. Govt investigators attributed death to car accident; opposition claimed govt assassination, amid reports Sadyrkulov moving closer to opposition after breaking with regime in Dec, had complained of surveillance. Death seen as blow to prospects of organized opposition to President Bakiyev, Ak Zhol party, and signal of escalating power struggle; political tensions stoked further by rumours of president’s health problems. Ahead of late-month anti-govt demonstrations, opposition claimed intimidation, including 3 March attack on leading journalist, 9 March arrest of opposition leader Jekshenkulov for murder. Govt, opposition held talks 10 March but opposition pulled out of follow-up talks, announced protests. Heavy security presence deployed for 27 March demonstrations across country; turnout low, protests mostly peaceful. Parliament 20 March approved 23 July date for early presidential elections. Bakiyev 4 March said ready for proposals from U.S., but govt next day reiterated decision to close Manas U.S. airbase. Tajkistan, Kyrgyzstan 4 March signed border cooperation agreement, including Kyrgyz rental of disputed territory.

• “Early presidential vote declared amid growing political scandal”, EurasiaNet, 19 March 2009.
• “Deadly Kyrgyz crash leaves cloud of intrigue”, RFE/RL, 16 March 2009.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Briefing N°79, Kyrgyzstan: A Deceptive Calm, 14 Aug. 2008.

President Bakiyev 3 Feb announced closure of U.S. airbase at Manas, operating since 2001 to supply U.S. Afghanistan operations, after reported Russian offer of $2.15b aid package. Parliament 19 Feb voted to close base; U.S has 180 days to leave. Opposition critical of govt, claimed Kyrgyz credibility damaged. United Popular Movement opposition bloc 5 Feb announced spring anti-govt protests. Bakiyev 11 Feb announced will seek 2nd term at next elections, slated for July 2010, but possibly 2009. Parliament reportedly proposing legislation restricting internet freedom.

• “Despite Kyrgyz vote to close U.S. base, Gates explores options to keep it open”, International Herald Tribune, 20 Feb. 2009.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Briefing N°79, Kyrgyzstan: A Deceptive Calm, 14 Aug. 2008.

Numerous senior level changes in cabinet, central and local govt, including 1st deputy PM replaced with prominent opposition politician Omurbek Babanov, a move seen as intended to split president’s opponents. Month also saw continuing govt harassment of senior opposition politicians as they increase activities; 2 opposition leaders detained mid-Jan for organizing illegal rallies, while govt warned of serious action against any unrest in Spring. Rumours of closure of U.S. base at Manas airport outside Bishkek – supposedly in return for $2bn Russian aid – scotched during Gen Petraeus visit to Bishkek mid-month (see Kazakhstan); further U.S. officials to visit Feb to discuss specifics of increased cooperation. President Bakiyev 12 Jan signed restrictive new religion law, strongly criticised by rights activists. Gas prices increased by some 80% due to Uzbek price increase.

• “Kyrgyz opposition fears ‘Reasonable Balance’ masks power grab”, RFE/RL, 28 Jan. 2009.
• “Air base at center of Kyrgyz talks with Moscow, Washington”, RFE/RL, 19 Jan. 2009.
• For background, please see Crisis Group Asia Briefing N°79, Kyrgyzstan: A Deceptive Calm, 14 Aug. 2008.

Planned 16, 24 Dec Muslim opposition protests cancelled; organizers alleged threats of arrest, authorities’ refusal to grant permission. 7 opposition parties 22 Dec met to discuss possible unification to defeat govt. Govt early Dec suspended BBC, RFE/RL broadcasts; BBC broadcasts resumed 17 Dec, govt 8 Dec said RFE/RL off air until it agrees to govt censorship of content. Rights activists criticised harsh sentences and cited biased investigation against alleged Hizb ut-Tahrir radicals jailed late Nov for 1 Oct protests in southern town Noorkat. UN 1 Dec appealed for $20m emergency aid package for Kyrgyzstan in response to energy crisis, rising food prices, declining remittances.

• “Kyrgyz restores BBC programming”, AP, 17 Dec. 2008.
• “Controversy over Kyrgyz protest sentences”, IWPR, 12 Dec. 2008. 

Worsening energy crisis prompted further divisions in govt and sacking of energy minister; opposition bitterly split over common vision, joint actions. Over a thousand joined various opposition parties 18 Nov in northern town Talas, protesting against corruption and nepotism. Over 1,200 delegates attended 29 Nov People’s Grand Congress organized by main opposition parties; called for development and political reforms, human rights. Parliament 5 Nov modified 1991 religious freedom law to increase number of members required to register religious organizations from 10 to 200, reducing religious freedoms; issues of Hizb ut-Tahrir influence not tackled. 32 alleged Islamic activists, some purportedly Hizb ut-Tahrir members, sentenced late month to prison terms of 9-20 years for subversion after 1 Oct demonstration in south. Bakivev 19 Nov returned from medical treatment in Germany. World Food Programme 25 Nov launched winter emergency operation.

• “Antipresidential rally in Kyrgyzstan kicks off hot political winter”, RFE/RL, 18 Nov. 2008.
• “Energy crisis threatens country’s stability”, EurasiaNet, 18 Nov. 2008.
• “Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan confront a financial disaster”, EurasiaNet, 10 Nov. 2008.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Briefing N°79, Kyrgyzstan: A Deceptive Calm, 14 Aug. 2008.

Local elections 5 Oct saw opposition and NGO allegations that results falsified to ensure Ak Zhol party victory and 30 Sept disappearance of opposition MP. Head of security council resigned mid-month after publicly criticising President Bakiyev administration. Bakiyev in Germany late Oct for medical treatment. Some 1,000 protested in southern town Noorkat 1 Oct, over official insensitivity to Muslim needs. Russian President Medvedev in Bishkek 9 Oct for energy and security talks, including agreement on sale of 75% of state-owned natural gas company to Russian Gazprom. Central Asian countries meeting in Bishkek 18 Oct agreed to coordinate use of water and energy over winter.

• “Kyrgyz political elite hit by infighting”, Journal of Turkish Weekly, 24 Oct. 2008.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Briefing N°79, Kyrgyzstan: A Deceptive Calm, 14 Aug. 2008.

Opposition Revolutionary Committee leader 16 Sept criticised President Bakiyev for undemocratic activities. Police 17 Sept raided opposition party Kyrgyzstan’s Fatherland regional office, seized computers, anti-govt leaflets. Opposition parties 26 Sept reported head of Central Election Commission in hiding following pressure from president’s son to disrupt opposition campaign ahead of 5 Oct local elections. Independent newspaper editor detained 9 Sept for 2 days; rights activists said charges politically motivated, arrest condemned by opposition For Justice movement. Govt stopped energy exports 1 Sept due to shortages.

• “Energy crisis challenges Bakiev’s presidency”, Ferghana.ru, 10 Sept. 2008.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Briefing N°79, Kyrgyzstan: A Deceptive Calm, 14 Aug. 2008.

President Bakiyev 6 Aug enacted legislation further tightening restrictions on freedom of assembly. Govt 26 Aug announced severe power cuts in response to chronic energy shortage; measures expected to last all winter, trigger further increase in food prices. Govt 5 Aug apologised for mistaken 4 Aug police raid on U.S. soldiers apartment, citing organisational failings.

• “Kyrgyzstan tightens rules on public assembly”, RFE/RL, 6 Aug. 2008.

Constitutional court 3 July ruled unconstitutional restrictions on demonstrations approved by parliament in June. Economic growth forecast cut, projected inflation raised to 29% amid fears of energy shortages; selective power, water cuts introduced late July. Unofficial reports asserted President Bakiyev’s unexpected Moscow trip 17 July was request for emergency aid.

• “Three years on, Kyrgyz president taken to task for rampant nepotism”, RFE/RL, 10 July 2008.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Report N°150, Kyrgyzstan: The Challenge of Judicial Reform, 10 Apr. 2008.

President Bakiyev 4 June passed controversial media bill, prompting outcry from rights groups. Parliament 13 June approved new restrictions on demonstrations. Independent paper De Facto raided 14 June, bank accounts later frozen. Regional states (excl. Turkmenistan) 10-11 June met Bishkek to discuss water, energy sharing – meeting reportedly tense. Police 4 June arrested 2 Uzbek border guards, prompting angry diplomatic exchange.

• “Age-old water problem brings tensions to a boil”, RFE/RL, 15 June 2008.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Report N°150, Kyrgyzstan: The Challenge of Judicial Reform, 10 April 2008.

Rights groups condemned amendments to mass media bill giving state de facto monopoly, approved by parliament late Apr; urged President Bakiyev to veto. IMF lending doubled to $18m 22 May to mitigate high food prices.

• “Kyrgyz media bill goes back to square one”, IWPR, 2 May 2008. 
• For most recent report, see Crisis Group Asia Report N°150, Kyrgyzstan: The Challenge of Judicial Reform, 10 Apr. 2008.

Dozens briefly arrested in 10 Apr protests in Bishkek against govt plan to cede 3 contested areas, 4 tourist sites to Kazakhstan. Deal ratification led to 300-strong demonstration 26 Apr. In 17 Apr Astana visit President Bakiyev said Kyrgyzstan excluded from Kazakh wheat export ban, guaranteed 300,000 tons grain. Legislative changes 18 Apr removed parliament’s right to review energy privatisation deals. Opposition-convened assembly 12 Apr adopted resolution demanding dissolution of parliament, invalidation of constitution. Russian soldier serving at Kant military base shot by Kyrgyz police 20 Apr; Moscow called for inquest.

• “Russian soldier’s shooting sparks diplomatic row”, RFE/RL, 21 Apr. 2008.
• “Opposition calls for dismissal of parliament, new constitution”, RFE/RL, 12 Apr. 2008.

Opposition groups 11 March brought court case against Central Election Commission (CEC) for not releasing detailed Dec 2007 election results; CEC said information unavailable. Opposition MPs held “public parliament” session 19 March; declared illegitimate by acting parliament. Unofficial “people’s court” held 17 March on 2002 Aksy killings: President Bakiyev, former President Akayev, found responsible for organising, carrying out shootings; Justice Minister Kaiypov said trial illegal.

• “‘Public trial’ held on 2002 killings”, RFE/RL, 17 Mar. 2008.
• “Kyrgyz opposition queries election figures”, IWPR, 12 Mar. 2008.

New action plan to combat “spread of religious extremism”, announced by PM Chudinov 28 Jan, singles out Hizb-ut-Tahrir. President Bakiyev said 21 Feb government would eventually raise question of closing temporary U.S. air base at Manas. Opposition groups shut out of parliament in Dec 2007 election convened “public parliament” 20 Feb; Abdygany Erkebaev (Taza Koom party) elected chair.

• “Economic crisis likely to rekindle Kyrgyz unrest”, IWPR, 20 Feb. 2008.
• “New effort aggressively counters Hizb Ut-Tahrir, religious extremism”, RFE/RL, 15 Feb. 2008.

New parliament sworn in 10 Jan following controversial 16 Dec elections marred by alleged vote-rigging. Supreme Court rejected election challenge by opposition Ata Meken 3 Jan. Opposition continued to protest results. “For Justice” movement – new coalition of over 30 groups, including Ata Meken and Ar-Namys parties – formed 14 Jan; said “People’s Parliament” to be established in Feb. Leader of opposition Asaba party Azimbek Beknazarov announced formation of “revolutionary body” to coordinate protest campaigns and force President Bakiyev’s resignation. Ar-Namys party asked to vacate offices 18 Jan; claimed move “politically motivated”. Prosecutor-General Elmurza Satbaldiev declared restrictions on public demonstrations to be upheld, sparking rallies in Bishkek 24 Jan. Officials said 9 Jan radioactive substances seized from train travelling to Iran from Kyrgyzstan. Kyrgyz police arrested alleged Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan-linked militant Abdulkhai Yuldashev, accused of involvement in 2006 border attacks.errorism charges began Shymkent 16 Jan.

• “Kyrgyz authorities arrest alleged member of al-Qaida linked regional Islamic group”, AP, 31 Jan. 2008.
• “Kyrgyz opposition forms new bloc”, RFE/RL, 15 Jan. 2008.
• “A new year and a new government, but lingering hints of political rancor”, EurasiaNet, 10 Jan. 2008.

President Kurmanbek Bakiyev consolidated power in sharply criticised 16 December parliamentary elections – widespread opposition protests and crackdown followed. Of 90 seats, Bakiyev’s newly founded Ak Jol party won 71; Social Democratic Party 11; and pro-Bakiyev Communist Party 8. Main opposition party, Ata Meken, second place in national vote but excluded from parliament as electoral commission ruled party failed to meet new threshold of 0.5% vote in all regions. Party disputed finding, responded with hunger strikes and rallies in Bishkek from 16 December; over 40 arrested and several briefly jailed. OSCE criticised election imbalances and disproportionate use of force in crackdown; U.S. condemned “widespread vote count irregularities”. Former energy minister Igor Chudinov approved as PM, 24 December. New opposition coalition, including Ata Meken, formed 25 December.

• “Authorities counter vote protests with detentions”, EurasiaNet, 21 Dec. 2007.
•  “Kyrgyz elections fail to meet a number of OSCE commitments in missed opportunity”, OSCE EOM, 16 Dec. 2007.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Briefing N°55, Kyrgyzstan on the Edge, 9 Nov. 2006.

PM Atambaev resigned 28 November; government said left on “good terms” with President Bakiyev. Campaigning for 16 December parliamentary elections began 26 November. 6 youth activists arrested during peaceful demonstration 10 November. Parties protested against electoral code changes raising number of votes required. OSCE election monitoring mission chief arrived in Bishkek 21 November, with 270-strong mission to follow in coming weeks.

• “Media body concerned over Kyrgyz murder probe”, Reuters, 2 Nov.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Briefing N°55, Kyrgyzstan on the Edge, 9 Nov. 2006.

President Bakiyev dissolved parliament 22 October, day after constitutional amendments broadening parliamentary powers, increasing presidential prerogatives and altering electoral system approved by 75% of registered voters in referendum. OSCE received numerous local observer reports of procedural violations, including ballot-stuffing. Parliamentary elections under new party list system set 16 December. New pro-presidential Ak Jol Eldik party founded and registered 15 October; Bakiyev suspended active chairmanship shortly after. Uzbek-language newspaper editor Alisher Saipov, vocal critic of Uzbek government, shot dead in Osh by unknown gunman 24 October. Interior ministry alleged Saipov had “close ties” to Islamist groups; activists and politicians suggested ministry under pressure from Uzbekistan. Bishkek military court gave former prosecutor Kudaibergenov and former provincial police chief 5-year suspended sentences for involvement in 2002 Aksy protestor shootings; former minister Dubanaev acquitted.

• “Friends cry foul as authorities link slain journalist to Islamists”, RFE/RL, 31 Oct. 2007.
• “New party may dominate Kyrgyz parliament”, IWPR, 26 Oct. 2007.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Briefing N°55, Kyrgyzstan on the Edge, 9 Nov. 2006.

Constitutional Court rejected November-December 2006 constitutional amendments, reinstating 2003 constitution and stipulating referendum required. Amid uncertainty over implications for all 2007 government appointments and parliament vote of no confidence against court, President Bakiev called referendum for 21 October. Parliamentary commission into 2003 shooting of protestors in Aksy called for President Bakiev and Supreme Court chairman Osmonov to be stripped of immunity to face charges for involvement in killings alongside former president Akaev.

• “Court ruling restores 2003 constitution”, RFE/RL, 17 Sept. 2007. 
• “Kyrgyz president implicated in Aksy killings”, RFE/RL, 14 Sept. 2007.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Briefing N°55, Kyrgyzstan on the Edge, 9 Nov. 2006.

Pressure on opposition groups continued. Opposition leader former PM Feliks Kulov arrested 1 August for role in April protests; 2 protest participants sentenced to 4 years prison. Police raided bank run by People’s Will party leader Bolot Baikojoev, 10 August; Green Party leader Erkin Bulekbaev arrested for filming police raid, sentenced 10 days prison. Rights groups accused police of torturing 3 detainees to death in northern city of Naryn 22 August.

• "Rights groups sound alarm over torture deaths", RFE/RL, 23 Aug. 2007.
• "Kyrgyz party to appeal leader’s prison sentence", RFE/RL, 13 Aug. 2007.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Briefing N°55, Kyrgyzstan on the Edge, 9 Nov. 2006.

Internal security stepped up ahead of 16 August Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Bishkek Summit. Deputy Governor of Osh arrested on aid embezzlement charges 20 July; local supporters threatened to block roads. State Agency for Religious Affairs announced drafting laws to tighten restrictions on religious activity.

• “State clampdown on radical religious groups”, IWPR, 18 July 2007.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Briefing N°55, Kyrgyzstan on the Edge, 9 Nov. 2006.

PM Atambayev returned from medical treatment abroad after alleged May poisoning. Supreme Court reopened investigation into 2002 Aksy police shooting of 6 protestors. Protests calling for U.S. withdrawal from Manas airbase died down after U.S. Sec. Defense Gates’ 5 June Bishkek visit, suggesting agreement on continued use of base. Opposition leader Kulov launched campaign for referendum on confederation with Russia 2 June.

• “Kyrgyz PM says Turkish doctors confirm he was poisoned”, AP, 18 June 2007.
• “Kulov confederation plan slated”, IWPR, 16 June 2007.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Briefing N°55, Kyrgyzstan on the Edge, 9 Nov. 2006.

Official medical report supported PM Atambayev’s claim poisoned after receiving death threats over nationalisation of industrial plant. Atambayev’s motorcade attacked by stone-throwing crowd after visits to 2 disputed gold mines in Talas province, several arrested. Parliament called on government to end agreement with U.S. to use Manas air base as controversy continued over December 2006 killing of Kyrgyz civilian by base guard. Explosion in newspaper offices in Osh 30 May investigated by police.

• “Kyrgyzstan leader 'was poisoned'”, BBC, 30 May 2007.
• “Kyrgyz opposition runs out of steam”, IWPR, 22 May 2007.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Briefing N°55, Kyrgyzstan on the Edge, 9 Nov. 2006.

Forceful police intervention ended 11-19 April opposition protests after Interior Minister Nogoybayev was attacked when urging crowd dispersal. Omurbek Subanaliev and Omurbek Abdrakhmanov, aides of opposition leader Feliks Kulov, arrested and charged with organising “mass unrest”. Protracted struggle between president and parliament over reforming constitution continued. Parliament approved 2 appointments to Constitutional Court providing quorum to review proposals. Former president Akayev’s daughter Bermet denied permission to stand in 29 April by-election in Kemin, leading to confrontation between supporters and authorities.

• “Kyrgyz rally ends in disarray”, IWPR, 22 Apr. 2007.
• “Kyrgyz protesters clash with police”, Reuters, 19 Apr. 2007.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Briefing N°55, Kyrgyzstan on the Edge, 9 Nov. 2006.

Political confrontation mounted as 2 main opposition movements announced plans to begin open-ended demonstrations in April, calling for reform and early presidential elections. Groups closer to President Bakiev formed pro-stability bloc, rejecting calls for early elections but urging reform. Opposition “For Reforms!” movement split as some influential members left in apparent protest at movement’s confrontational stance. PM Azim Isabekov resigned, opposition leader Almazbek Atambayev confirmed PM 30 March, but other opposition leaders refused to participate in coalition government. Bakiev fired ally Prosecutor-General Kambaraly Kongantiyev, criticised over slow investigation into 2002 police shootings of demonstrators in Aksy.

• “Kyrgyz president signs decrees on cabinet”, RFE/RL, 30 Mar. 2007.
• “Hizb ut-Tahrir emboldened in Kyrgyzstan”, IWPR, 12 Mar. 2007.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Briefing N°55, Kyrgyzstan on the Edge, 9 Nov. 2006.

Former PM Kulov announced switch to opposition after President Bakiyev failed to reappoint him PM following December resignation to allow constitutional changes: strengthened opposition called for Bakiyev’s resignation. Newly appointed government voted not to join World Bank Heavily Indebted Poor Countries Initiative despite criticism of Finance Minister. Police arrested East Turkestan Liberation Organization member in southern Osh region for alleged separatist attack plans 13 February.

• “Kyrgyzstan government votes to back out of debt relief program for poorest countries”, International Herald Tribune, 20 Feb. 2007.
• “Kyrgyzstan’s former PM vows to rally opposition”, Reuters, 14 Feb. 2007.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Briefing N°55, Kyrgyzstan on the Edge, 9 Nov. 2006.

President Bakiyev approved constitutional amendments reinstating some presidential powers. His renomination of PM Kulov rejected twice by parliament, but nomination of Agriculture Minister Azim Isabekov for PM approved by overwhelming majority.

• “Public, politicians give positive reaction to new premier”, RFE/RL, 31 Jan. 2007.
• “Yet another constitution for Kyrgyzstan”, IWPR, 16 Jan. 2007.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Briefing N°55, Kyrgyzstan on the Edge, 9 Nov. 2006.

Agreement between President Bakiyev and parliament over compromise November constitution short-lived, as sides resumed political wrangling. PM Feliks Kulov and cabinet offered resignation to Bakiyev 19 December in effort to break impasse between government and legislature by ushering in early parliamentary elections. Bakiyev accepted resignation but called on government to remain until new one formed. Parliament amended constitution to reinstate some presidential powers 30 December after Bakiyev threatened to dissolve assembly. Opposition “For Reforms!” movement threatened renewed street protests in January and February 2007 against changes to new constitution and entry into World Bank debt reduction program. U.S. guard shot dead Kyrgyz citizen at gates of U.S. Ganci airbase 6 December; parliament called on government to review 2001 base agreement after U.S. refused to lift soldier’s immunity.

• “Kyrgyz lawmakers amend new constitution”, RFE/RL, 30 Dec. 2006.
• “Kyrgyzstan Cabinet resigns office”, BBC, 19 Dec. 2006.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Briefing N°55, Kyrgyzstan on the Edge, 9 Nov. 2006.

New constitution establishing parliamentary checks on presidential power ratified by President Bakiyev 9 November. Adoption came after tense week of opposition mass protests demanding constitutional change or Bakiyev’s resignation. PM Feliks Kulov rejected opposition calls for his resignation after the crisis. Sanjar Kadyraliyev, widely considered to control much of drug trafficking and racketeering in south, sworn into parliament 20 November.

• “Making Kyrgyzstan’s constitutional reform stick”, IWPR, 21 Nov. 2006.
• “Kyrgyz Prime Minister says he has no plans to resign”, RFE/RL, 15 Nov. 2006.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Briefing N°55, Kyrgyzstan on the Edge, 9 November 2006.

Relations between President Bakiev and parliament remained strained: opposition planning open-ended rally 2 November to call for progress on constitutional reform. Bakiev warned would not allow protests to destabilise country but promised to send draft reforms to parliament by 20 November. 3 suspected Islamist rebels given commuted death sentences for involvement in May attacks on Kyrgyz and Tajik border posts. Bakiev visited Uzbekistan 3-4 October; presidents hailed cooperation and lifted bilateral visa requirements.

• “Kyrgyz president addresses parliament on constitutional reforms”, RFE/RL, 30 Oct. 2006.
• “Constitutional reform effort in Kyrgyzstan enters critical period”, Eurasia Insight, 24 Oct. 2006.
• For most recent report, see Crisis Group Asia Report N°118, Kyrgyzstan’s Prison System Nightmare, 16 Aug. 2006.

Relations between President Bakiev and parliament deteriorated further after apparent attempt to frame opposition leader MP Omurbek Tekebaev: arrested Warsaw airport 6 September, but released after Polish court ruled heroin probably planted. Kyrgyz parliamentary probe alleged National Security Service (SNB) involvement; SNB Chairman Tabaldiev and deputy, Bakiev’s brother Janybek, resigned. Assembly also declared formal alliance between President Bakiev and PM Kulov unconstitutional and suggested criminal case be opened against Janybek Bakiev. Opposition Asaba party and “For Reform!” movement held rally in southern Aksy district; movement threatened Bishkek demonstrations against Bakiev if no reforms by November. Alleged Islamic Movement of Turkestan leader Rasul Akhunov died after reportedly refusing to surrender to security forces 2 September; authorities later ruled he had heart attack during raid. Osh court released 4 suspected Akramiya members, including daughter of leader Akram Yuldash who Uzbekistan say masterminded 2005 Andijon uprising.

• “Kyrgyz opposition urges political reforms, removal of president’s relatives from government jobs”, International Herald Tribune, 18 Sept. 2006.
• “Democracy lite”, Transitions Online, 12 Sept. 2006.
• For most recent report, see Crisis Group Asia Report N°118, Kyrgyzstan’s Prison System Nightmare, 16 August 2006.

Tensions rose in southern town Karasuu after prominent Imam Kamalov killed with 2 Tajik citizens by security forces: government initially claimed Kamalov Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan “terrorist” but, after mounting local anger, said cleric may have been accidentally killed in clash between militants and armed forces. Security services called on Islamist militants in southern Osh region to lay down weapons by 1 September, while 6 went on trial accused of May border checkpoint attacks. UNHCR condemned extradition to Uzbekistan of 5 refugees, 4 of whom fled after 2005 Andijon uprising; 4 other refugees disappeared from Osh under suspicious circumstances (see Uzbekistan, below). 2 Washington-based Kyrgyz diplomats declared persona non grata following July expulsion of 2 U.S. diplomats from Bishkek. 3 sentenced to death for 2005 killing of MP Tynychbek Akmatbaev, who died while mediating prison revolt.

• “Fury over imam death”, IWPR, 18 Aug. 2006.
• “UN says shocked by Kyrgyz extraditions to Uzbekistan”, AlertNet, 10 Aug. 2006.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Report N°109, Kyrgyzstan: A Faltering State, 16 Dec. 2005.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Report N°118, Kyrgyzstan’s Prison System Nightmare, 16 August 2006.

Policeman killed by gunmen with suspected links to Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan and Hizb ut-Tahrir (HuT) 9 July, triggering major police operation in south; 5 suspected militants killed. Security services vowed to destroy HuT, claiming HuT declared “jihad”; group denied making declaration. Court sentenced 2 to death for 2005 murder of MP Erkinbaev. 6 arrested in Osh for suspected involvement in 2005 Andijon uprising, including daughter of uprising’s alleged leader. Manas airbase rent deal reached with U.S. after bilateral talks resulted in 8-fold rent increase to $20 million per year, to be distributed in coming year within $150 million aid and compensation package. Meanwhile government expelled 2 U.S. diplomats for alleged interference in domestic affairs. President Bakiev and Uzbek President Karimov pledged cooperation in struggle against terrorism and extremism.

• “Kyrgyzstan’s undiplomatic policy shift”, IWPR, 14 July 2006.   
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Report N°109, Kyrgyzstan: A Faltering State, 16 Dec. 2005.

Bilateral negotiations over rent increase on U.S. Manas airbase ended without deal. 25 June parliamentary by-election in Kurshab, Osh province, cancelled after large-scale clashes between candidates’ supporters. Supreme Court refused refugee status for Rasuljon Pirmatov, 1 of 4 in Kyrgyz detention having fled Uzbekistan after 2005 Andijon massacre; UNHCR appealed against deportation and for resettlement elsewhere. Supreme Court also upheld acquittal of 6 police suspected of killing 6 civilians during 2002 protests in Aksy.

• “Kyrgyz voter clash prompts election debate”, ISN, 29 June 2006.
• “Ethnic Uzbeks intensify civil rights advocacy effort”, EurasiaNet, 7 June 2006.  
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Report N°109, Kyrgyzstan: A Faltering State, 16 Dec. 2005.

President Bakiev rejected resignations of 13 ministers after parliamentary resolution criticised cabinet, but he later made series of senior appointments to government and administration 10 May. Same day alleged organised crime boss, and winner of April parliamentary by-election, Ryspek Akmatbayev shot dead by unknown assailants: supporters called for resignation of PM and deputy interior minister but backed down after meeting Bakiev. Gunmen from Tajikistan breached border, clashing with Tajik and Kyrgyz border guards 12 May: 13 reported dead. Authorities linked attack to Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan. Government concern over Islamic radicalism appeared connected to arrests of influential clergymen and moratorium on activity of Tabligh movement in Batken province. “For Reform!” movement held large demonstration 27 May, demanding progress on reform and against corruption.

• “Kyrgyzstan’s leaders face pressure from multiple sources”, Eurasia Insight, 26 May 2006.
• “Kyrgyz-Tajik border raid stokes fears”, IWPR, 19 May 2006.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Report N°109, Kyrgyzstan: A Faltering State, 16 Dec. 2005.

President Bakiyev came under increasing pressure to deal with crime and corruption after prominent pro-democracy activist Edil Baisalov seriously injured in attack by unknown assailant. Baisalov had organised demonstration against criminalisation of politics ahead of 9 April parliamentary by-elections in which alleged organised crime bosses were candidates, including Ryspek Akmatbayev (who won despite questions over legality of his candidacy). Alliance of opposition politicians and NGOs issued 18 April ultimatum to president to tackle problems or resign. 29 April opposition rally ended peacefully after Bakiyev unexpectedly addressed crowd and appealed for patience. President threatened closure of U.S. Manas airbase if new agreement on rent payments not reached by June.

• “Thousands boo Kyrgyz president, demand democracy”, AlertNet, 29 Apr. 2006.
• “Kyrgyz premier orders mafia clampdown”, ISN, 20 Apr. 2006.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Report N°109, Kyrgyzstan: A Faltering State, 16 Dec. 2005.

Parliament elected Marat Sultanov new speaker 2 March. Central Electoral Commission overturned court ruling that allowed alleged organised crime boss Ryspek Akmatbayev to stand in April parliamentary by-elections; his supporters protested in Bishkek.

• “Bakiyev faces maturing opposition in Kyrgystan”, ISN, 14 Mar. 2006.
• “Kyrgyzstan gets new speaker”, IWPR, 3 Mar. 2006.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Report N°109, Kyrgyzstan: A Faltering State, 16 Dec. 2005.

Power struggle between President Bakiev and parliament escalated as powerful parliamentary speaker Omurbek Tekebaev resigned after telling Bakiev to “hang himself”. Bakiev had earlier accused parliament of obstruction and corruption. 2 senior security officials sacked by Bakiev for alleged failure to combat organised crime and corruption. Incident between teenage gangs in Iskra escalated into communal clash between Kyrgyz and Chinese Dungan villagers, leaving 20 injured and raising broader concerns about interethnic relations. Government reportedly to ask U.S. to pay massive rent increase for use of Manas military base. Court rejected asylum of 2 Uzbek refugees now likely to be deported despite UNHCR appeal.

• “Interethnic clash causes Kyrgyzstan’s ‘Common house’ to tremble”, Eurasianet, 16 Feb. 2006.
• “Kyrgyz speaker resigns in row with president”, IWPR, 15 Feb. 2006.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Report N°109, Kyrgyzstan: A Faltering State, 16 Dec. 2005.

Political breakdown gathered momentum. Sports hero and leading contender for head of National Olympic Committee shot dead, latest in string of political murders: previous head killed September 2005. Interior Ministry detained operative of National Security Service (NSS) in connection with killing and accused NSS of links with organised crime. Ryspek Akmatbayev, organiser of October Bishkek protests demanding PM Kulov’s dismissal, acquitted of murder after prosecution dropped charges. PM Kulov publicly blamed Akmatbayev and NSS chief Aybayev for rise in criminality, as parliament demanded Aybayev’s resignation. President announced governors of Jalalabad and Talas provinces to trade places, after attempt to sack Jalalabad governor - key figure in March 2005 “tulip revolution” - led to protests in both provinces.

• “Crime fighters fall out in Kyrgyzstan”, IWPR, 28 Jan. 2006.
• “Unsportsmanlike behaviour in Kyrgyzstan”, IWPR, 12 Jan. 2006.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Report N°109, Kyrgyzstan: A Faltering State, 16 Dec. 2005.

First cabinet since March revolution sworn in 20 December. President Bakiev announced referendum in 2006 to decide on structure of political system. 19 December local elections generally calm though some results disputed. Bakiev fired acting governor of Osh Oblast, who had publicly criticised government. Explosion 24 December in Osh government building officially blamed on “terrorists”. Bishkek announced plans to privatise 2 newspapers in effort to relax controls over media. Increasing concerns 4 Uzbek refugees detained in Osh might be extradited to Uzbekistan.

• “Kyrgyzstan’s clannish voters”, IWPR, 23 Dec. 2005.
• “Poll on Kyrgyz political system“, BBC, 21 Dec. 2005.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Report N°97, Kyrgyzstan: After the Revolution, 4 May 2005.

Situation in prisons normalised after October-November unrest. President Bakiev presented constitutional drafting committee with ready-made constitution in move seen as attempt to use Constitutional Conference to rubber-stamp his amendments, including abolition of position of PM. May Revolution leader Azimbek Beknazarov won parliamentary by-election, while former FM and revolutionary leader Roza Otunbaeva defeated. Head of National Security Service presented report into recent murders of 2 MPs, saying deaths due to business dispute and drug deal. Asan Erkinbaev, whose MP brother killed September, hospitalised after setting self on fire to demand killers’ capture.

• “Otunbayeva loses last chance to remain in Kyrgyz politics”, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 30 Nov. 2005.
• “Kyrgyz leader pushes for more power”, IWPR, 15 Nov. 2005.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Report N°97, Kyrgyzstan: After the Revolution, 4 May 2005.

Prison riots caused political turmoil after MP Tynychbek Akmatbaev, penal authority chief Ikmatulla Polotov and 2 aides killed by inmates while trying to negotiate inside rebellious prison. Inmates took control of jails after pullback by security forces for safety reasons; 18 inmates killed 1 November in renewed unrest. Hundreds demonstrated in Bishkek and Osh, blamed PM Kulov for deaths and called for his resignation. Situation stabilised somewhat at month’s end as demonstrators agreed to halt protests until outcome of investigation into deaths, slated 15 November. U.S. Sec. State Rice and President Bakiev reached agreement allowing U.S. to maintain airbase until Afghanistan stabilised.

• “Restive days in Bishkek”, RFE/RL, 30 Oct. 2005.
• “Prison riot sparks political row in Kyrgyzstan”, IWPR, 22 Oct. 2005.
• “Guards pulled out of Kyrgyz jails”, BBC, 21 Oct. 2005.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Report N°97, Kyrgyzstan: After the Revolution, 4 May 2005.

Tensions worsened as political groups and criminal elements competed for power. Dismissal of Prosecutor-General Beknazarov on 19 September sparked large demonstrations in his home Aksy region, with demands for President Bakiev’s resignation and threats to march on Bishkek; Beknazarov subsequently called for calm. MP and Osh businessman Bayaman Erkinbaev shot dead in Bishkek 21 September prompting MPs to demand right to bear arms and resignation of law-enforcement chiefs. Earlier in month, 100 protestors seized Prosecutor-General’s Karasuu office amidst allegations of foot-dragging in murder investigation of Erkinbaev business rival. Parliament overwhelmingly confirmed Feliks Kulov as PM 1 September and began reviewing ministerial nominations. Outside parliament, moves to trigger dissolution referendum continued; ex-PM Tanaev arrested attempting to leave country. Russian Defence Minister Ivanov announced military aid, joint 2006 anti-terrorism exercises and investment in Russia’s Kant airbase. Bakiev, while confirming U.S. would retain use of Manas airbase, said financial conditions of basing agreement would be reviewed.

• “Kyrgyzstan’s revolution at risk”, Eurasianet, 26 Sept. 2005.
• “Gunmen in Kyrgyzstan assassinate top legislator”, International Herald Tribune, 23 Sept. 2005.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Report N°97, Kyrgyzstan: After the Revolution, 4 May 2005.

President Bakiyev sworn in 14 August; appointed erstwhile political rival Feliks Kulov as PM and consolidated power by installing ally Jumadyl Isakov as mayor of Osh despite challenge from powerful local businessman. Bakiyev decision to reject Uzbekistan threats and allow UNHCR to transport Andijon refugees to safe haven in Romania applauded; estimated 1,000 unofficial Uzbek refugees still believed hiding in southern Kyrgyzstan. Corruption probes against former political leaders continued with ex-PM Tanayev denying allegations; Prosecutor-General Beknazarov warned investigations could be compromised by August amnesty law.

• “Bakiev presidential inauguration raises hopes”, IWPR, 16 Aug. 2005.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Report N°97, Kyrgyzstan: After the Revolution, 4 May 2005.

Stability consolidated as Kurmanbek Bakiev won 89% of vote in 10 July presidential election. OSCE cautiously praised vote’s conduct; other candidates complained of violations but accepted Bakiev victory. Russia to double troop contingent at Kant air base in sign of possible Kyrgyz pro-Russian policy shift. Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (including Russia and China) called for closure date for U.S. air base at Manas. U.S. Sec. Defense Rumsfeld assured by defense minister base would not be closed if needed for Afghan operations. Most Uzbek refugees from Andijon relocated to Romania pending final relocation to undisclosed third countries; 15 asylum-seekers remain in detention in Osh.

• “U.S. gains indefinite continued use of air base in Kyrgyzstan”, International Herald Tribune, 26 July 2005.
• “Just like the old days?”, The Economist, 14 July 2005.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Report N°97, Kyrgyzstan: After the Revolution, 4 May 2005.

Situation remained fragile ahead of 10 July presidential elections. Supporters of disqualified candidate Urmatbek Baryktabasov - many reportedly paid for turning out - stormed government building in Bishkek 17 June; ejected by police. In further incidents of violence, parliamentary deputy assassinated in Bishkek 7 June; bodyguards of Acting President Bakiev assaulted by unknown men 11 June; and clash between rival groups in southern city of Osh 13 June killed 1. Kyrgyz authorities forcibly returned 4 Uzbek asylum-seekers (of some 500 who fled following Andijon massacre), saying they were common criminals. Government stepped back from returning 29 more following international outcry.

• “Officials say Kyrgyz capital ‘stabilized’”, RFE/RL, 17 June 2005.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Report N°97, Kyrgyzstan: After the Revolution, 4 May 2005.

Potential presidential contender Feliks Kulov announced will join team of Acting President Kurmanbek Bakiev for 10 July elections, easing fears vote could spark further unrest. Kulov likely to be appointed Bakiev’s PM. Violence in Uzbekistan led to influx of hundreds of refugees: some 500 currently in temporary camp just inside border, facing uncertain future as authorities divided over how to handle situation in face of Uzbek government pressure for return. Concern further violence in Uzbekistan could lead to larger refugee flows and regional instability. Group of approximately 300 “people’s volunteers” attacked Supreme Court building 1 June, evicting group who had occupied building for 40 days in protest at alleged election fraud.

• “Kyrgyz pledge on Uzbek refugees”, BBC, 27 May 2005.
• “Kyrgyzstan: Say no to return of Uzbek refugees”, HRW release, 27 May 2005.
• “Kyrgyz heavyweights team up”, IWPR, 17 May 2005.

Situation stabilised somewhat, with President Akayev submitting resignation from Moscow exile, and presidential vote set for 10 July. Leading candidates are interim president Kurmanbek Bakiyev and former vice president Feliks Kulov, but Russian-speaking Kulov must first clear Kyrgyz fluency legal hurdle. Court cleared Kulov of criminal charges relating to time in office. Security situation still fragile: thousands of squatters seizing land around capital, Bishkek, risking confrontation with residents and farm owners.

• “New constitutional body debates sweeping reforms”, RFE/RL, 28 Apr. 2005.
• “Bishkek residents alarmed at land seizures”, IWPR, 15 Apr. 2005.
• “Kyrgyzstan election date decided”, BBC, 11 Apr. 2005.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Report N°81, Political Transition in Kyrgyzstan: Problems and Prospects, 11 Aug. 2004.

Government of President Askar Akayev toppled following mass protests over rigged parliamentary elections. Although sudden turn of events may usher in positive change on range of political, economic, and social fronts, situation remains highly unstable, with risk of further unrest. Protests began in southern city of Jalal-abad 21 March, spreading across south and to capital, Bishkek, and culminating in storming of government headquarters 24 March. Widespread looting and confusion ensued. Akayev forced to flee to Russia, but refused to resign; indications he will if family and economic interests protected. Opposition leader Kurmanbek Bakiyev confirmed by controversial new parliament as PM and acting president until elections can be held (date tentatively set for 26 June 2005); former vice president Feliks Kulov, freed from jail by protestors, briefly assumed control of security services, but stepped down 30 March; seen as likely challenger to Bakiyev for presidency, though prison sentence technically disqualifies him. Situation remains fragile, with heated rivalries among those in apparent control, and doubts about loyalty and capacity of police forces.

• “Kyrgyzstan’s new leaders urged to co-operate”, Financial Times, 31 Mar. 2005.   
• “Kyrgyzstan installs a new leader”, International Herald Tribune, 29 Mar. 2005.
• “A proliferation of revolutions”, The Economist, 28 Mar. 2005.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Report N°81, Political Transition in Kyrgyzstan: Problems and Prospects, 11 Aug. 2004.

Parliamentary elections marred by government crackdown on media and opposition. Protests in Naryn region and elsewhere over exclusion of candidates threatened to escalate, while prominent independent printing house suffered mysterious power cut and broadcasts of Radio Free Europe’s Kyrgyz service halted. Over half of 75 single-seat constituencies to be decided in 13 March run-off after candidates failed to win majority.

• “Parliamentary elections fall short of international standards”, IRIN, 28 Feb. 2005.
• “Kyrgyzstan faces key voter test”, CNN, 27 Feb. 2005.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Report N°81, Political Transition in Kyrgyzstan: Problems and Prospects, 11 Aug. 2004.

Government appeared increasingly nervous ahead of 27 February parliamentary elections, tightening grip on power and blasting supposed international provocateurs who seek to bring Ukraine-style revolution to Kyrgyzstan. Controversial election commission decision to bar former diplomat and opposition party leader Roza Otunbaeva from running sparked protests outside parliament, but opposition remains divided and unlikely to mount serious challenge to pro-government candidates. President Akaev’s daughter, son, and 2 sisters-in-law registered as candidates.

• “Rights activist warns of election violence”, IRIN, 27 Jan. 2005.
• “Kyrgyz opposition under pressure”, IWPR, 21 Jan. 2005.
• “For president, parliamentary elections a family affair”, RFE/RL, 17 Jan. 2005.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Report N°81, Political Transition in Kyrgyzstan: Problems and Prospects, 11 Aug. 2004.

President Akaev criticised events in Ukraine and showed concern they could occur in Kyrgyzstan; government proposed draft law limiting right to protest. Opposition groups, inspired by Ukraine opposition, began seeking ways to unite ahead of 2005 elections.

• “Kyrgyz leaders eye Ukraine nervously”, IWPR, 21 Dec. 2004.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Report N°81, Political Transition in Kyrgyzstan: Problems and Prospects, 11 Aug. 2004.

Human rights activist Tursunbek Akun disappeared 16 November after having told family members he had been summoned by National Security Service. Interior ministry denied government role; opposition demanded investigation. Two died, including policeman, in 20 November Osh explosion. Incident occurred after police stopped car with 4 men inside, 1 of whom detonated explosive device in escape attempt. Unclear if men linked to radical underground groups.

• “Kyrgyzstan: Fears for missing activist”, IWPR, 26 Nov. 2004.
• “Kyrgyz police seek suspects in Osh bomb blast”, RFE/RL, 23 Nov. 2004.
• For background, see ICG Asia Report N°81, Political Transition in Kyrgyzstan: Problems and Prospects, 11 Aug. 2004.

Local elections 10 October proceeded smoothly, with 61% turnout. But reports of irregularities at polls put in doubt government's commitment to free and fair parliamentary and presidential elections in 2005. New dispute over press freedom as opposition newspaper Moya Stolitsa Novosti again under attack from authorities, this time for allegedly selling paper below cost.

• “Kyrgyzstan: Opposition paper cries foul”, IWPR, 19 Oct. 2004.
• For background, see ICG Asia Report N°81, Political Transition in Kyrgyzstan: Problems and Prospects, 11 Aug. 2004.

New political bloc, headed by former PM Kurmanbek Bakiyev, formed for 2005 parliamentary and presidential elections. Constitutional Court rejected request by opposition to rule on legality of President Akayev running for yet another term: Akayev supporters have launched campaign for him to stay on. Local elections set for 10 October.

• “New political bloc formed in Kyrgyzstan”, RFE/RL, 22 Sept. 2004.
• “Kyrgyzstan: President again?”, IWPR, 1 Sept. 2004.
• For background, see ICG Asia Report N°81, Political Transition in Kyrgyzstan: Problems and Prospects, 11 Aug. 2004.

Government denied early release request of jailed opposition leader Feliks Kulov, saying latter not eligible for parole until November 2005 – after presidential elections. Kyrgyz civic group launched campaign in support of third term for President Akaev, despite constitution’s 2-term limit.

• Comment by David Lewis (ICG), “Kyrgyzstan: No Georgia”, Transitions Online, 23 Aug. 2004.
• “Kyrgyzstan: Opposition cries foul play over jailed leader”, IWPR, 6 Aug. 2004.
• For background, see ICG Asia Report N°66, Youth in Central Asia: Losing the New Generation, 31 Oct. 2003.

Jailed opposition leader Feliks Kulov threatened hunger strike - and supporters country-wide protests - if authorities refused to consider Kulov request for early release.

•  “Kyrgyz opposition seeks release of leader”, RFE/RL, 20 July 2004.
•  “New Kyrgyz ‘espionage’ affair”, IWPR, 13 July 2004.
•  For background, see ICG Asia Reports N°66, Youth in Central Asia: Losing the New Generation, 31 Oct. 2003; and N°37, Kyrgyzstan’s Political Crisis: An Exit Strategy, 20 Aug. 2002.

For People Power opposition bloc announced former PM Kurmanbek Bakiev as group’s nominee for president, first official candidate in 2005 election. President Akayev, in power since 1990, has vowed not to run, but Constitutional Court said would examine whether he had legal right to seek further term. Opposition Ar-Namys party complained of increased harassment and arrest of local leader.

• “Kyrgyz court to examine legality of possible Akaev bid for third term”, RFE/RL, 28 June 2004.
• For background, see ICG Asia Reports N°66, Youth in Central Asia: Losing the New Generation, 31 Oct. 2003; and N°37, Kyrgyzstan’s Political Crisis: An Exit Strategy, 20 Aug. 2002.

Misir Ashirkulov, long-time friend of President Akayev, dismissed by latter as head of Security Council after joining Union for Honest Elections, new opposition group. Move may be prelude to run for presidency in elections set for October 2005. Akayev has promised not to run again. Chynybek Aliev, head of government anti-corruption department, gunned down by unknown assailants in Bishkek 5 May, adding to string of high profile assassinations over last 2 months.

• "Kyrgyzstan: 'For fair elections' -- is a new political force emerging?", RFE/RL, 26 May 2004.
• "Kyrgyzstan: A losing battle", Transitions Online, 11 May 2004.
• For background, see ICG Asia Reports N°66, Youth in Central Asia: Losing the New Generation, 31 Oct. 2003; and N°37, Kyrgyzstan’s Political Crisis: An Exit Strategy, 20 Aug. 2002.

Justice ministry quashed rumours that jailed opposition leader Feliks Kulov to be released 1 June. Rumour started by Kulov aide.

• "Kyrgyzstan: Kulov's supporters attempting to keep his name in international spotlight", RFE/RL, 14 Apr. 2004.
• For background, see ICG Asia Reports N°66, Youth in Central Asia: Losing the New Generation, 31 Oct. 2003; and N°37, Kyrgyzstan's Political Crisis: An Exit Strategy, 20 Aug. 2002.

Kyrgyz ombudsman announced will investigate case of jailed opposition figure Feliks Kulov following latter’s request for inquiry into violations of his rights.

• “Kyrgyz ombudsman to investigate Kulov case”, RFE/RL, 24 Mar. 2004.
• For background, see ICG Asia Reports N°66, Youth in Central Asia: Losing the New Generation, 31 Oct. 2003; and N°37, Kyrgyzstan’s Political Crisis: An Exit Strategy, 20 Aug. 2002.

President Akayev announced cabinet reshuffle; move seen as designed to bolster positions of allies ahead of 2005 elections. Passage of language law making fluency in Kyrgyz compulsory for government employees causing controversy among ethnic Russian and Uzbek minorities. Heavy rains and poor cooperation between Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan in managing shared water resources causing severe flooding along Syr Darya river near Uzbek-Kazakh border.

• “Kyrgyz language law passes, war of words continues”, RFE/RL Central Asia Report, 25 Feb. 2004.
• “New government, old faces”, IWPR, 18 Feb. 2004.
• “Test of regional cooperation as Syr Darya overflows”, RFE/RL Central Asia Report, 16 Feb. 2004.
• For background, see ICG Asia Reports N°66, Youth in Central Asia: Losing the New Generation, 31 Oct. 2003; and N°37, Kyrgyzstan’s Political Crisis: An Exit Strategy, 20 Aug. 2002.

Discovery of listening devices in offices of several opposition MPs provoked political storm. MPs blame National Security Service (NSS), while government says opposition trying to generate controversy ahead of 2005 elections. Seven opposition parties joined to form united bloc; say they will back 1 candidate to run against President Akayev.

• “Power for the people: New opposition bloc formed in Kyrgyzstan”, RFE/RL Central Asia Report, 26 Jan. 2004.
• “Kyrgyz bugging affair”, IWPR, 17 Jan. 2004.
• For background, see ICG Asia Reports N°66, Youth in Central Asia: Losing the New Generation, 31 Oct. 2003; and N°37, Kyrgyzstan’s Political Crisis: An Exit Strategy, 20 Aug. 2002.

Amendment placing restrictions on foreign media coverage of elections passed by parliament, drawing strong criticism, particularly from Russian press. In south, Uzbek police illegally crossed border 10 December in attempt to arrest Kyrgyz citizen. Raid thwarted by citizen’s neighbours. Uzbek raids into Kyrgyzstan reported frequently; targets usually Muslims suspected of extremism.

• “Secret Uzbek raid ends in farce”, IWPR, 13 Dec. 2003.
• “Election law amendment sparks debate among press”, RFE/RL, 12 Dec. 2003.
• Comment by David Lewis (ICG), “Lessons in how to steal elections”, Transitions Online, 1 Dec. 2003.
• For background, see ICG Asia Report N°66, Youth in Central Asia: Losing the New Generation, 31 Oct. 2003; and ICG Asia Report N°37, Kyrgyzstan’s Political Crisis: An Exit Strategy, 20 Aug. 2002.

Security services claimed terrorist attack on U.S. airbase foiled; arrested three alleged Hizb ut-Tahrir members. U.S.-funded independent printing house opened 14 November in Bishkek. Activists hope new printer will increase media freedom and limit state press’s ability to censor opposition. Tension persists on Uzbek border.

• “Kyrgyzstan: Boost for media freedom”, IWPR, 15 Nov. 2003.
• “Bomb attack on coalition airbase reported foiled by Kyrgyz security”, Eurasianet.org, 5 Nov. 2003.
• For background, see ICG Asia Report N°66, Youth in Central Asia: Losing the New Generation, 31 Oct. 2003; and ICG Asia Report N°37, Kyrgyzstan’s Political Crisis: An Exit Strategy, 20 Aug. 2002.

After international pressure, Coalition for Democracy and Civil Society, vocal opposition group, had registration approved on fourth attempt, and government retracted demand that Kyrgyz Committee for Human Rights (KCHR) re-register, but environment for civil society groups remains difficult. Border with Uzbekistan continuing source of tension.

• “Kyrgyz foreign ministry rejects Uzbek report on border incident”, RFE/RL, 17 Oct. 2003.
• “Kyrgyzstan: Civil society groups face harassment”, Human Rights Watch press release, 7 Oct. 2003.
• For background, see ICG Asia Report N°59, Central Asia: Islam and the State, 10 Jul. 2003; and ICG Asia Report N°37, Kyrgyzstan’s Political Crisis: An Exit Strategy, 20 Aug. 2002.

Dissatisfaction with government remains high, particularly in south. President Akayev vowed not to run for fifth term in 2005, but there is speculation that Akayev’s wife, or even daughter, may be groomed to succeed him. Journalist, reportedly investigating high-level corruption, found dead; police say no evidence of foul play.

• “Kyrgyzstan should investigate journalist’s mysterious death”, Freedom House press release, 24 September 2003.
• “Kyrgyz first lady viewed as possible presidential contender”, Eurasianet.org, 15 September 2003.
• For background, see ICG Asia Report N°59, Central Asia: Islam and the State, 10 July 2003; and ICG Asia Report N°37, Kyrgyzstan’s Political Crisis: An Exit Strategy, 20 August 2002.

Dissatisfaction with Government remains high, particularly in south. President Akayev consolidated power by pushing through widely-criticised constitutional referendum, but promises not to run in next election, due in 2005. Conviction of popular opposition leader Feliks Kulov upheld by Supreme Court.

• “Strong reaction to Supreme Court ruling on opposition leader”, IRIN News.org, 21 August 2003.
• For background, see ICG Asia Report N°37, Kyrgyzstan’s Political Crisis: An Exit Strategy, 20 August 2002.