CrisisWatch Search Results

Negotiations on allocations of ministries in national unity govt entered 4th month following June election victory of March 14 alliance. No breakthrough despite hopes placed on 7-8 Oct Syrian-Saudi summit (see Syria); French FM Kouchner also called for agreement after 23-24 Oct meetings with political leaders. Hizbollah denied Israeli accusation that 12 Oct explosion near member’s home in south was arms cache. Explosions 2km inside border 18 Oct identified by Lebanese army, UN as detonation of up to 3 buried Israeli espionage devices; army fired at Israeli drone overflying explosion site. Israeli artillery 27 Oct hit Hula village after rocket fired into Israel; Lebanese army found more rockets in area 28 Oct. UNSG’s 23 Oct report on UNSCR 1559 called for Hizbollah, other militias to disarm, Israel to withdraw from Ghajar and end overflights, improved conditions for Palestinian camps.

• “Eavesdropping sparks fresh border tension”, National, 19 Oct. 2009.

Efforts to form cabinet set back as PM-designate Hariri stepped down 10 Sept after opposition rejected new cabinet proposal. Hariri reappointed as PM-designate by president 16 Sept with support of 73 out of 128 MPs; new round of consultations launched 24 Sept. 2 rockets fired into Israel from southern Lebanon 11 Sept; unverified claim of responsibility by militant group Abdullah Azzam Brigades. Israel responded with 8 shells near Tyre; no casualties reported. U.S. Middle East envoy Mitchell visited Beirut 16 Sept for talks with President Suleiman. Internal Security Forces reported alleged plot to assassinate Grand Mufti Qabbani on first day of Eid al-Fitr. Businessman Salah Ezzedine, tied to Hizbollah, charged with fraud 12 Sept in multi-million dollar pyramid scheme.

• “Way paved for new cabinet in Lebanon”, National, 28 Sept. 2009.

Ongoing negotiations on formation of govt hampered by dispute over ministerial portfolio allocations and 3 Aug decision of key March 14 leader Walid Jumblatt to leave governing alliance and affiliate with president. Tensions with Israel rose over month; Israel deputy FM 10 Aug called for security cabinet to approve immediate military attack against Lebanon “to put an end to Hizbollah’s threats”; Hizbollah said will launch rockets on Tel Aviv if attacked. Security officials recaptured Fatah al-Islam member 19 Aug after escape from high-security prison day before. Booby-trap wounded 3 in Tripoli’s Allawite neighbourhood of Jabal Mohsen 13 Aug. UNIFIL mandate renewed for one year 27 July.

• “Aoun’s remarks take center stage as political rivals lash out at demands”, Daily Star, 19 Aug. 2009.

In talks on new govt following 7 June election, parties agreed end month on allocating 15 cabinet posts to March 14 alliance, 10 to Hizbollah-led opposition, 5 appointed by President Suleiman. Several incidents heightened tensions in south. After arms depot exploded 14 July in Khirbet Selm near Israel border, senior UN official 24 July said “indications suggest weapons belonged to Hizbollah”, in violation of UNSCR 1701 exclusion zone. Some 70 Lebanese 17 July marched on Israeli military outpost in Kfar Shuba, established June; Israel charged UNIFIL peacekeepers’ collaboration with protest. 10 suspected members of Fatah al-Islam-linked jihadi cell arrested 21 July for plotting attacks against UN, Lebanese army. Sporadic intra-Palestinian violence in Ain al-Hilweh camp throughout month.

• “Rival Lebanese factions close to an agreement on cabinet”, National, 28 July 2009.
•  “Illegal Lebanon arms may have been Hezbollah’s – UN”, Reuters, 24 July 2009.
• For background, see Crisis Group Middle East Report N°87, Lebanon’s Elections: Avoiding a New Cycle of Confrontation, 4 June 2009.

7 June parliamentary elections won by pro-Western March 14 alliance, capturing 71 seats to opposition 57. Observers praised transparent, calm election, with only minor clashes. Future Movement leader Hariri appointed PM 27 June, began consultations aimed at forming unity govt. 1 killed in 28 June Beirut clashes between Hariri supporters and followers of Shiite Amal movement. Hizbollah officials met UK ambassador 22 June, in first contact since 2005; EU HR Solana also met Hizbollah representative 14 June. Masked gunman killed Fatah member 22 June in Ain el-Hilweh Palestinian camp; explosives-laden car found at camp entrance 16 June. Grenade thrown 22 June at Fatah member’s house in Rashdieh camp. Israeli army set up outpost on Lebanese territory in Kfar Shouba area 19 June. Syria 23 June released 23 Lebanese prisoners, including 8 formerly classified as missing.

• “A win for the West”, Economist, 11 June 2009.

Amid closely contested campaign for parliamentary elections set for 7 June, tensions rose after leader Nasrallah called Hizbullah’s 7 May 2008 military takeover of West Beirut “glorious day” for Resistance; March 14 alliance strongly condemned speech. U.S. VP Biden visited 22 May, said continued U.S. support depends on election outcome, policies of new govt. 7 Lebanese charged 25, 30 May with spying for Israel, bringing total to 23 since Jan; 35 suspects detained. Israel 13 May suspended discussion of withdrawal from disputed Ghajar village until after elections. Der Spiegel report 23 May claimed Hizbollah responsible for Hariri assassination; some political factions, analysts cast doubt on credibility. Acts of pre-election violence reported throughout May; opposition supporter killed in clashes 24 May.

• “Will the shaky equilibrium hold?”, Economist, 28 May 2009.
• For latest report, see Crisis Group Middle East Report N°84, Nurturing Instability: Lebanon’s Palestinian Refugee Camps, 19 Feb. 2009.

UN tribunal on assassination of former PM Hariri 29 Apr ordered release of 4 high-ranking generals held since 2005, citing lack of evidence. U.S. Sec State Clinton in 26 Apr Beirut visit called for June elections to be fair, free of external influence, stated support for Lebanese sovereignty and “moderates”. 4 soldiers killed 13 Apr in ambush in Bekaa valley blamed on drug gang; tens arrested in army raids over following days. New Lebanese ambassador to Syria officially took up post 20 Apr.

• “Suspects in Hariri’s death released“, New York Times, 29 Apr. 2009.
• “Clinton in Beirut ahead of key vote”, AP, 26 Apr. 2009.
• For latest report, see Crisis Group Middle East Report N°84, Nurturing Instability: Lebanon’s Palestinian Refugee Camps, 19 Feb. 2009.

International tribunal on killing of former PM Hariri opened in the Hague 1 March. Leaders of main national factions met 2 March in 5th round of national dialogue. UK minister 4 March announced resumption of contact with Hizbollah “political wing”. President Suleiman in Paris 18 March rejected direct talks with Israel. Senior PLO official, Fatah member Kamal Midhat among 4 dead in 23 March bombing near Mieh Mieh Palestinian camp; days before, clashes in camp killed 2. Syria appointed first ambassador to Lebanon 24 March, following Dec opening of Beirut embassy.

• “Senior PLO official killed in south Lebanon bombing”, Daily Star, 24 March 2009.
• For background, see Crisis Group Middle East Report N°84, Nurturing Instability: Lebanon’s Palestinian Refugee Camps, 19 Feb. 2009.

Rocket fired from S Lebanon hit Israel 21 Feb injuring 3; responsibility unclear. Israel responded immediately with artillery fire. PM Siniora denounced rocket attack and Israeli response. Huge rally 14 Feb by March 14 alliance for 4th anniversary of former PM Hariri’s assassination; one demonstrator killed in clashes with rival party supporters. At large Hizbollah rally 16 Feb commemorating Israel’s 2008 assassination of military leader Mughniyeh, Hassan Nasrallah refused to confirm or deny possession of air defence weapons, said Hizbollah has right to use them. Interior minister 11 Feb granted Lebanese citizens right to have sectarian affiliation removed from official documents.

• “Najjar: Hizbullah not responsible for rocket attacks”, Daily Star, 23 Feb. 2009.
• “Divided we stand”, Al-Ahram Weekly Online, 19 Feb. 2009.

Isolated incidents of rocket fire into Israel 8, 14 Jan from south amid widespread anger at Israeli onslaught in Gaza (see Israel/OPT) sparked fears that country would be drawn into conflict. Hizbollah members, govt officials distanced movement from rockets, warned against Lebanese involvement in conflict; responsibility unclaimed but Palestinian militant groups suspected. Hizbollah leader Nasrallah 7 Jan condemned Israel, Egypt at Beirut rally. Numerous protests against Gaza offensive held in Beirut and elsewhere; police used tear gas to disperse protesters outside U.S. embassy 4, 18 Jan.

• “Strikes on Israel from Lebanon raise new tensions”, Wall Street Journal, 15 Jan. 2009.
• “Lebanese Army, UNIFIL unearth arms cache near Israeli border”, Daily Star, 10 Jan. 2009.
• For background, see Crisis Group Middle East Report N°78, The New Lebanese Equation: The Christians’ Central Role, 15 July 2008.

With Lebanese parliamentary elections due mid-2009, Christian leader Michel Aoun visited Damascus 3-7 Dec, met with Syrian President Assad. President Suleiman hosted further national dialogue talks among rival political factions; committee on national defence strategy to be formed. Army 26 Dec found and dismantled 8 Katyusha rockets near southern town Naqura aimed toward Israel. Lebanon 28 Dec said Israeli planes violated airspace (see Israel/OPT). Hizbollah leader Nasrallah 28 Dec condemned Israeli attack on Gaza; criticised Egypt for not opening Rafah border. Suleiman backed calls for emergency Arab summit. Protests across country from 29 Dec. Moscow mid-month offered to give Lebanon 10 MIG-29 fighter jets – no response from Beirut. Unconfirmed reports 10 Dec that Shaker Absi, fugitive leader of al-Qaeda-linked group Fatah Islam, killed or captured in Syria; new leader, Abdel Awad, named. UNSC 17 Dec extended investigation into 2005 assassination of former PM Rafiq Hariri to 28 Feb, with UN tribunal expected to start up 1 March.

• “International silence on Gaza draws local rage“, Daily Star, 5 Jan. 2009.
• “Aoun’s goal”, Economist Intelligence Unit ViewsWire, 8 Dec. 2008.
• For background, see Crisis Group Middle East Report N°78, The New Lebanese Equation: The Christians’ Central Role, 15 July 2008.

Relations with Damascus strained, despite Oct establishment of diplomatic ties. Syria 6 Nov broadcast Fatah al-Islam members’ confessions to 27 Sept car bombing in Damascus, accusing Saad Hariri’s pro-Western, Sunni “Future Movement” of complicity with jihadis and indicating explosives were brought from northern Lebanon, attacker was Saudi. Interior Minister Ziad Baroud and Syrian counterpart met in Damascus 10 Nov; agreed to form committee to cooperate on terrorism and crime – visit criticised in Lebanon. National reconciliation efforts led by President Suleiman continued, but undermined by hostility between Christian leaders Michel Aoun and Samir Geagea. Suleiman announced intention to form new Christian parliamentary bloc. 2 reported Israeli agents captured in Bekaa 1 Nov, linked to Feb assassination of Hizbollah commander Imad Mughniyeh in Damascus. Lebanese soldiers clashed with gunmen in Tripoli 21 Nov, killing 1. Suleiman met Iranian President Ahmadi-Nejad in Tehran 24 Nov. Following 26 Nov report to Security Council, UNSG Ban said he expects UN special tribunal for 2005 assassination of former PM Rafiq Hariri to start operations 1 March 2009.

• “Hariri tribunal expected to start on March 1”, AP, 28 Nov. 2008.
• “Behind the Syria TV ‘confessions’”, BBC, 7 Nov. 2008.
• For background, see Crisis Group Middle East Report N°78, The New Lebanese Equation: The Christians’ Central Role, 15 July 2008.

Syrian and Lebanese FMs signed document 15 Oct announcing start of diplomatic relations – first since independence from France in 1940s. Embassies to be opened before year end. Move welcomed in UNSG’s report on Lebanon to UNSC, which also urged improved border security and halt to paramilitary build-up. Hizbollah leader Nasrallah and “March 14” movement leader Saad Hariri held talks 26 Oct ahead of national dialogue session due in early Nov. Suspects in deadly Aug and Sept Tripoli bombings targeting military arrested 12 Oct; warrants for others sought, linked to Fatah Islam. U.S. and Lebanon set up new bilateral commission to oversee military relations and assistance.

• “Nasrallah and Hariri break the ice during secret weekend meeting”, Daily Star, 28 Oct. 2008.
• “Syria, Lebanon formalize diplomatic ties”, AP, 15 Oct. 2008.  
• For background, see Crisis Group Middle East Report N°78, The New Lebanese Equation: The Christians’ Central Role, 15 July 2008.

National reconciliation talks opened 16 Sept amid string of violent incidents. Leaders of 14 political factions agreed to discuss national defence strategy, resume dialogue 5 Nov with bilateral talks in interim. Parliament approved new election law 29 Sept. Saleh Aridi – pro-Syrian opposition politician and adviser to Druze leader Talal Arslan – killed when his car exploded 11 Sept. Clash between rival Christian groups in Bsarma in north 17 Sept left 2 dead, 3 wounded. Tensions between Sunnis and Alawites in Tripoli eased with 8 Sept agreement to end recent sectarian fighting, but car bomb 29 Sept targeting army bus killed 7. Syrian troop deployment near northern border to combat smuggling reported 22 Sept. Violence continued in Ein al-Hilweh Palestinian refugee camp with 2 dead in explosion 23 Sept, shooting 15 Sept. UNIFIL peacekeeper killed in explosion 3 Sept while clearing munitions from 2006 war with Israel.

• “Rival Lebanese factions begin reconciliation talks”, AP, 16 Sept. 2008.
• “Lebanese parties vow to work past Aridi murder”, Daily Star, 12 Sept. 2008.
• For background, see Crisis Group Middle East Report N°78, The New Lebanese Equation: The Christians’ Central Role, 15 July 2008.

Relative calm masked continuing instability, especially in Tripoli where 13 Aug roadside bomb at bus stop killed some 18, half soldiers. Cabinet 5 Aug unanimously approved policy statement, but with no clarification on Hizbollah’s weapons; 12 Aug approved national unity govt, confirming increased power of Hizbollah-led opposition. President Michel Suleiman 13-14 Aug met Syrian counterpart Bashar al-Assad in Damascus: agreed to establish full diplomatic relations and negotiate border demarcation (excluding disputed Shebaa farms). Lebanese army helicopter hit by gunfire in south, pilot killed 28 Aug; Hizbollah 29 Aug handed suspect over to military court. Brig. Gen. Jean Qahwaji appointed new army chief. UNIFIL peacekeeping force mandate renewed 1 year 27 Aug.

• “Syria and Lebanon to negotiate border demarcation”, AP, 14 Aug. 2008.
• “Lebanon attack is message for army: analysts”, AFP, 14 Aug. 2008.
• For background, see Crisis Group Middle East Report N°78, The New Lebanese Equation: The Christians’ Central Role, 15 July 2008.

National unity govt formed 11 July following tensions after May Qatari-brokered agreement to resolve protracted crisis. As provided in Doha accord, Hizbollah-led opposition selected 11 ministers – sufficient for veto, ruling “March 14” coalition 16, President Suleiman remaining 3. Sectarian clashes in Tripoli continued with 4 killed, scores wounded 8-9 July despite late-June ceasefire and army deployment; 9 killed 25-26 July. Suleiman and Syrian counterpart Assad met in Paris 12-13 July during Euro-Mediterranean summit; agreed to open embassies. Diplomatic strain further eased with 21 July Beirut visit by Syrian FM Walid Mouallem. Hizbollah-Israel prisoner swap, agreed under UN-backed German mediation, carried out 16 July, after Hizbollah 12 July provided report on Israeli soldier missing since 1986. Exchange included remains of 2 soldiers seized in 2006 war (deaths previously unconfirmed) for 5 Lebanese prisoners, including man jailed 1979 for brutal raid killing child, and remains of some 200 mostly Lebanese, Palestinian. Gun battle 19 July between Fatah and Jund al-Sham Palestinian factions at Ein al-Hilweh refugee camp killed 3; roadside bomb and further fighting 29 July.

• “Israel, Hezbollah carry out dramatic swap of captives from 2006 war, Lebanese militant”, AP, 16 July 2008.
• “New cabinet formed in Lebanon”, New York Times, 11 July 2008.

Focus shifted to formation of national unity govt after 21 May Qatari-brokered deal brought swift halt to 18-month political standoff. Negotiations over new govt continued throughout month, amid clashes in Sunni-Shiite areas – 4 killed in Bekaa Valley on 9, 17 June; at least 8 killed, scores wounded near Tripoli 22-23 June; Tripoli bomb 28 June killed 1, wounded 27. Western leaders welcomed May deal, pledged support to newly elected president Michel Suleiman, PM Fouad Siniora. Israeli cabinet 29 June approved Hizbollah prisoner swap agreed under UN-backed German mediation. Israel 1 June deported Lebanese-born prisoner convicted in 2002 of spying for Hizbollah; Hizbollah same day handed over remains of Israeli soldiers killed in 2006 war. Fatah al-Islam militants 2 June claimed responsibility for 31 May bombing at army post near Nahr al-Bared refugee camp.

• “Israel to free prisoners”, Washington Post, 30 June 2008.
• “Faction fighting continues in northern Lebanon”, AP, 23 June 2008.
• For background, see Crisis Group Middle East Briefing N°23, Lebanon: Hizbollah’s Weapons Turn Inward, 15 May 2008.

Significant progress with 21 May Qatari-brokered deal to end 18-month political stalemate, following dangerous Hizbollah escalation. Group launched military operation against Sunni militias, took over West Beirut 8-10 May: at least 81 dead. Assault prompted by 6 May government decisions to reassign pro-Hizbollah Beirut airport security chief and investigate group’s independent telephone network. Opposition Hizbollah and Amal Shiite militias overwhelmed Sunni rivals, took control of pro-Western “March 14” coalition districts; fighting spread to Tripoli and Chouf mountains south east of capital 9-12 May with scores dead; army deployed, remained neutral. Govt revoked controversial decisions 14 May; initial agreement reached 15 May after Arab League intervention. 5-day Qatar negotiation produced deal: army chief Michel Suleiman as president; national unity cabinet – Hizbollah given “blocking third”; new rules for 2009 parliamentary election based on smaller district; renunciation of armed force internally; Hizbollah’s weapons to be addressed by new president. Suleiman elected by parliament 25 May; re-appointed Siniora PM 28 May; cabinet discussions 30 May. Progress reported 26 May in UN-sponsored indirect talks on Israel, Hizbollah prisoner exchange. Explosion near refugee camp in north killed soldier 31 May; suspected suicide bomber shot dead same day near Ain el-Hilweh camp.

• “Lebanon elects new president to ease divide”, International Herald Tribune, 25 May 2008.
• “Peace for a while”, Economist, 22 May 2008.

Parliament failed again to elect president – post vacant since Nov. Hizbollah-led opposition did not participate in 22 Apr session; speaker Nabih Berri called on rival leaders to hold talks before new vote 13 May. Arab FMs meeting in Kuwait City with U.S. Sec. State Rice and UN, EU officials issued statement 22 Apr expressing “deep dismay”, urging Syria, Lebanon to “redefine and normalize ties”. UN reported gunmen momentarily blocked UNIFIL patrol in pursuit of suspicious truck near Tyre end-March – first UNIFIL encounter with “armed elements” since end 2006 Israel-Lebanon war. Audiotape 22 Apr allegedly by al-Qaeda deputy Zawahri urged militants to “expel” peacekeeping forces in Lebanon. 2 members of Christian Phalange Party, part of governing coalition, shot dead 20 Apr in Zahle. Johan Verbeke of Belgium appointed as new UN special coordinator for Lebanon.

• “Lebanese lawmakers fail again to elect president”, AP, 23 Apr. 2008.
• “U.N. says gunmen blocked peacekeepers in Lebanon”, Reuters, 23 Apr. 2008.
• For background, see Crisis Group Middle East Report N°69, Hizbollah and the Lebanese Crisis, 10 Oct. 2007.

Deadlock over election of president continued: parliamentary vote postponed 24 March for 17th time, to 22 April. Notion of “unilateral” election, with simple majority vote, gaining traction in anti-Syrian “March 14” ruling coalition; Hizbollah-led opposition considers tantamount to declaration of war. Paramilitary mobilisation drives stepped up – all parties playing active role. Lebanon invited to, but boycotted, 29-30 March Arab League summit in Damascus (see Syria). Fighting between Fatah guerrillas and Jund al-Sham militants 21 March in Ain al-Hilwe Palestinian refugee camp; at least 1 killed. 40-day mourning period for Hizbollah commander Imad Mughniyeh, killed in Damascus car bomb, ended 24 March; leader Nasrallah said UN-mediated negotiations for prisoner swap with Israel to continue. UNSG earlier reported Israel said Hizbollah rearming in south. Report of UN commission investigating 2005 assassination of former PM Rafiq Hariri said “network of individuals” involved.

• “Hezbollah: prisoner swap talks with Israel continue despite Mughniyeh assassination”, AP, 24 Mar. 2008.
• “Lebanese presidential election postponed again amid continuing deadlock”, AP, 24 Mar. 2008.
• For background, see Crisis Group Middle East Report N°69, Hizbollah and the Lebanese Crisis, 10 Oct. 2007.

Tensions remained high and political crisis continued. In Beirut, 3-year anniversary commemoration of former PM Rafiq Hariri assassination 14 Feb coincided with funeral for Hizbollah commander Imad Mughniyeh, killed in 12 Feb Damascus car bomb. Thousands of troops deployed but no serious violence; low-level clashes between rival political factions throughout month. Hizbollah threatened “open war” against Israel. 28 Feb U.S. deployed 3 warships off Lebanon coast. Arab League SG Amre Moussa left Beirut after failing to mediate presidential succession crisis; parliamentary vote on post delayed to 11 March; speculation Moussa may return 9 March 19 soldiers charged over killings of 6 opposition protesters during clashes in southern Beirut on 27 Jan; followed accusations by Hizbollah of army bias. Fatah al-Islam leader Shaker al-Abssi and 4 Syrian members of group charged for 13 Feb 2007 Beirut bus bomb. Lebanese prosecutor indicted 56 for involvement in al-Qaeda-linked groups, including Fatah al-Islam, 18 Feb. Israeli forces killed Lebanese man near border town Ghajar 3 Feb: circumstances disputed.

• “New visit by Moussa depends on Cairo talks – diplomats”, Daily Star, 28 Feb. 2008.
• “Death of a terrorist”, Economist, 14 Feb. 2008.
• “Rival events reveal Lebanon divisions”, BBC, 14 Feb. 2008.
• For background, see Crisis Group Middle East Report N°69, Hizbollah and the Lebanese Crisis, 10 Oct. 2007.

Risk of violent confrontation in and over Lebanon heightened. Car bomb 25 Jan killed Capt. Wissam Eid, investigator of string of political assassinations following 2005 murder of PM Rafiq Hariri. Bodyguard and 3 passersby killed; 37 wounded. Clashes 28 Jan between army and Shia protestors in southern Beirut left at least 7 dead, including opposition Hizbollah and Amal officials. Presidency vacant since Nov; parliamentary vote again postponed, now due 11 Feb. Arab League FMs 6 Jan endorsed plan to resolve deadlock: Gen. Michel Suliman as president, national unity government and new electoral law. SG Amre Moussa held talks with rival factions in Beirut, visited Damascus, mid-month: no breakthrough. Explosion apparently targeting U.S. embassy vehicle 15 Jan killed 3. Rockets fired from Lebanon into Israel 8 Jan: no responsibility claimed. Troops fired on Israeli planes over Lebanese territory 21 Jan. Roadside bomb 8 Jan struck UNIFIL patrol: 2 injured.

• “Army drawn into Lebanese crisis”, BBC, 28 Jan. 2008.
• “Bomb kills Lebanese intelligence officer”, International Herald Tribune, 25 Jan. 2008.
• “Arab mediator brokers Lebanese rivals’ meeting”, Reuters, 17 Jan. 2008.
• For background, see Crisis Group Middle East Report N°69, Hizbollah and the Lebanese Crisis, 10 Oct. 2007.

Political crisis deepened as country faced ninth assassination in 3 years and presidency remained vacant. Pro-Western ruling bloc and pro-Syrian opposition agreed army chief Michel Suleiman consensus presidential candidate. But sides locked over required constitutional amendment and opposition demand to agree future government. Parliamentary vote on president repeatedly postponed, now due 12 January, despite intensive French, U.S., diplomacy (see Syria). Car bomb 12 December killed army head of operations General Francois Hajj – likely successor to Suleiman and first military figure in string of assassinations since former PM Rafiq Hariri killed in 2005.

• “Lebanon president vote postponed to January 12”, Reuters, 28 Dec. 2007.
• “Lebanon’s new low as leader talks fail”, Guardian, 23 Dec. 2007.
• “Lebanon mourns slain army chief”, BBC, 14 Dec. 2007.
• For background, see Crisis Group Middle East Report N°69, Hizbollah and the Lebanese Crisis, 10 Oct. 2007.

Presidency vacant as pro-Syrian President Emile Lahoud left office at term end 23 November. Parliamentary vote repeatedly delayed: now due 7 December. Army chief Michel Suleiman emerged as potential consensus candidate 29 November. Governing coalition led by Saad Hariri dropped opposition to necessary constitutional amendment; Christian opposition leader Michel Aoun said would support candidacy if term limited to 2 years, opposition given veto in cabinet and neutral PM installed. Power vacuum followed intensive diplomacy led by France, supported by UNSG Ban Ki-moon. Fighting broke out in Tripoli 27 November between newly-formed group loyal to Hariri, Afwaj Trablos, and pro-Syrian Islamic Unification Movement (IUM); 1 IUM militant killed. Serge Brammertz (now to move to ICTY, see Serbia), chief investigator of commission investigating 2005 assassination of former PM Rafiq Hariri, submitted latest progress report to UNSC; to be replaced by Canadian Daniel Bellemare.

• “Lebanon delays vote again, army chief in focus”, Reuters, 29 Nov. 2007.
• “Gunfight raises Lebanon tension”, BBC, 28 Nov. 2007.
• For background, see Crisis Group Middle East Report N°69, Hizbollah and the Lebanese Crisis, 10 October 2007.

Parliamentary session to select new president postponed again to 12 November. Hizbollah-aligned parliamentary speaker Nabih Berri and anti-Syrian March 14 coalition leader Saad Hariri met 19 October to discuss possible successors to pro-Syrian President Emile Lahoud. Rival Christian leaders Amin Gemayel and Michel Aoun also held talks 21 October. First Israeli-Hizbollah prisoner exchange since 2006 war 15 October: Israeli civilian’s body swapped for Hizbollah prisoner and bodies of 2 militants. UN began returning displaced Palestinians to Nahr al-Bared refugee camp 10 October.

• “Berri puts off day of decision in Beirut until November 12”, Daily Star, 23 Oct. 2007.
• “Israeli-Hizbullah swap sparks speculation about further exchanges”, Christian Science Monitor, 17 Oct. 2007.

Critical parliamentary vote on new president delayed to 23 October as Hizbollah-led opposition boycotted 25 September session. Postponement in wake of 19 September assassination of Antoine Ghanim, member of pro-Western ruling coalition March 14. Ghanim is eighth anti-Syrian MP killed since 2005 and further radicalises March 14, reducing prospects for compromise presidential candidate after Pro-Syrian President Emile Lahoud’s term ends late November. Army took control of Nahr al-Bared Palestinian refugee camp, declared victory over Fatah al-Islam militants 2 September. Over 300 dead, including 164 soldiers, in 105-day siege. Lebanese said Israeli fighter jets violated airspace 18 September.

• “Who’s for president?”, Economist, 27 Sept. 2007.
• “‘Israeli warplanes raid’ Lebanon”, BBC, 18 Sept. 2007.
• “Palestinian refugees of Nahr el-Bared anxious to return to devastated camp”, AP, 12 Sept. 2007.
• For background, see Crisis Group Middle East Briefing N°20, Lebanon at a Tripwire, 21 Dec. 2006.

Army continued bombardment of Fatah al-Islam militants in Nahr al-Bared Palestinian refugee camp. 63 women, children evacuated 24 August, some 70 fighters remain. In 5 August by-elections to replace assassinated governing coalition MPs Walid Eido and Pierre Gemayel, coalition won in Beirut, lost in Christian heartland Metn. Camille Khoury, of Michel Aoun’s Hezbollah-allied party, narrowly defeated Gemayel’s father and former president, Amin. UNSC 24 August authorised 1-year extension of 13,000-strong peacekeeping force (UNIFIL) deployed after 2006 Israel-Lebanon war. Netherlands agreed to host UN tribunal on 2005 assassination of former PM Rafiq Hariri.

• "U.N. Security Council votes to extend mandate of Lebanon peacekeeping force", AP, 24 Aug. 2007.
• "No clear winner in Lebanon votes", BBC, 6 Aug. 2007.
• For background, see Crisis Group Middle East Briefing N°20, Lebanon at a Tripwire, 21 Dec. 2006.

Lebanese troops intensified offensive against Fatah al-Islam militants in Nahr al-Bared refugee camp. Since 20 May start, fighting killed over 200 including at least 120 soldiers; almost all 30,000 camp residents have fled. Militants fired Katyusha rockets on nearby villages. France hosted talks with 14 main Lebanese political parties near Paris 14-15 July: attempt to break 8-month deadlock with presidential elections set for 25 September. French FM Kouchner in Beirut 28 July for follow-up talks with pro-Western PM Fouad Siniora, pro-Syrian parliamentary leader Nabi Berri, Hezbollah and others. UN asked Netherlands to host special tribunal to try suspects in 2005 killing of former PM Rafiq Hariri. In videotape, al-Qaeda deputy Ayman al-Zawahri blessed 24 June roadside bomb attack that killed 6 UN peacekeepers. Bomb 16 July struck UN vehicle but no casualties. French UN peacekeeper killed 25 July in south by explosion of ordnance from 2006 war between Hezbollah and Israel.

• “Kouchner: ‘Pressure is needed’ to reach Lebanon deal”, Daily Star, 30 July 2007.
• “Intense army bombardment of north Lebanon refugee camp”, AP, 25 July 2007.
• “Police officer killed, five men wounded in Muslim-Christian clash in south Lebanon”, AP, 22 July 2007.
• For background, see Crisis Group Middle East Briefing N°20, Lebanon at a Tripwire, 21 Dec. 2006.

Fierce battles between Lebanese army and Fatah al-Islam (FAI) group continued throughout month in Nahr al-Bared refugee camp north of Tripoli, Ain al Hilwe camp (against Jund al-Sham - supporters of FAI) near Sidon and latterly in Tripoli itself: military reported over 200 killed since fighting started 20 May. Lebanese Salafi jihadis called FAI and its ideology "mistake", but have been recruiting elsewhere and built power bases in other refugee camps. MP Walid Eido became seventh anti-Syrian figure to be assassinated since 2005; his son and 8 others also died in 13 June blast. Eido’s death leaves anti-Syrian bloc with slim majority of 3 in parliament. Governing coalition continued to refuse to give opposition one-third of cabinet seats needed for veto power. 6 UN peacekeepers from Spain and Colombia killed after their vehicle was hit by explosive device 24 June; Hizbollah denied responsibility. 2 Katyusha rockets fired by local Salafi jihadi group in Lebanon exploded near northern Israeli border town of Kiryat Shmona 18 June.

• “Anti-Syrian lawmakers seek safety abroad amid mounting security threats”, International Herald Tribune, 30 June 2007.
• “Six U.N. peacekeepers die in Lebanon bombing”, Washington Post, 25 June 2007.
• “Lebanon Islamist clashes spread”, BBC, 24 June 2007.
• For background, see Crisis Group Middle East Briefing N°20, Lebanon at a Tripwire, 21 Dec. 2006.

Worst internal fighting since end of civil war in 1990 erupted from 19 May. Army battled with Islamist militant group Fatah al-Islam after security forces targeted it for criminal activity; 79 killed in ensuing clashes in Tripoli and nearby Palestinian refugee camp Nahr al-Bared; 25,000 refugees reportedly fled camp. Damascus denied allegations of involvement. 20 Fatah al-Islam members, including 1 Syrian, charged with terrorism 30 May. UNSC voted 31 May to establish international tribunal to try suspects in killing of former PM Rafiq Hariri under Chapter VII (allowing military enforcement); supported by PM Fouad Siniora but denounced by Hezbollah as foreign interference.

• “Hezbollah and Syria denounce UN over tribunal for Hariri killing”, AP, 31 May 2007.
• “Clerics mediate as army tightens grip on Nahr al-Bared”, Daily Star, 29 May 2007.
• For background, see Crisis Group Middle East Briefing N°20, Lebanon at a Tripwire, 21 Dec. 2006.

Political tensions escalated. MP Saad Hariri’s Future Movement issued statement 16 April questioning legitimacy of Hezbollah’s arms. Impasse intensified over tribunal to address 2005 assassination of former PM Rafiq Hariri, prompting U.S. suggestion UNSC impose tribunal, and interventions by Russian deputy FM, UN counsel and UNSG Ban Ki-moon. Controversy building over procedures for September presidential elections.

• “Divided Lebanese leaders set sights on battle for presidency”, Daily Star, 23 Apr. 2007.
• “Russia, U.N. in diplomatic push to try to break impasse over tribunal in Hariri killing”, AP, 17 Apr. 2007.
• Comment by Nadim Hasbani (Crisis Group), “Liban: crise politique sur fond d’un nouveau partage du pouvoir”, Politique Etrangère (IFRI), 4 Apr. 2007.
• For background, see Crisis Group Middle East Briefing N°20, Lebanon at a Tripwire, 21 Dec. 2006.

Political paralysis continued. Regional mediation efforts increased but failed to produce results. Saudi Arabia launched initiative involving deal on international tribunal and establishment of government of national unity, followed by preparation of new electoral law; but details not clear. Arrests of members of Islamist group Fatah al-Islam implicated Syrians and Saudis in connection with February blasts in Ayn Alaq.

• “UN chief tries to bridge Lebanon divide”, BBC, 30 Mar. 2007.
• For background, see Crisis Group Middle East Briefing N°20, Lebanon at a Tripwire, 21 Dec. 2006.

January violence gave way to uneasy February calm while political stalemate continued. Aware that political escalation would lead to sectarian clashes, Hezbollah called for restraint. All political actors now waiting for external forces to unblock situation, including via Iran-Saudi and Saudi-Syrian dialogues. 13 February, day before second anniversary of Hariri assassination, bombs exploded on 2 buses in Christian area of Beirut killing 2. Government blamed Syria and accused it of smuggling weapons to Hezbollah; Damascus denied both. UN chief legal counsel signed agreement 6 February to create tribunal to try suspects in Hariri assassination and killings of other anti-Syrian figures. Agreement now awaits signature from parliament. Israeli warplanes continued to fly over south Lebanon, despite UN resolution 1701, leading to Lebanese military firing anti-aircraft rounds 21 February.

• “Lebanon opposition weighs disobedience campaign”, Reuters, 19 Feb. 2007.
• “Razor wire and soldiers keep factions apart”, IRIN, 14 Feb. 2007.
• For background, see Crisis Group Middle East Briefing N°20, Lebanon at a Tripwire, 21 Dec. 2006.

Political stalemate between western-backed Siniora government and opposition led by Hizbollah descended into violence. Clashes erupted in central and northern Lebanon between Hizbollah and Sunni opponents while opposition demonstrations in central Beirut turned violent as rival Sunni government supporters and Shiite opponents at Beirut’s Arab University clashed 25 January; 4 killed and more than 150 injured. 3 died in clashes amid general strike called by Hizbollah 23 January. Opposition pulled its demonstrators off streets 25 January amid fears of escalation. Iran and Saudi Arabia emerged as mediators in dispute but compromise proposals rejected by both sides. Arab League Secretary General Amr Moussa expected to return to Lebanon early February to resume negotiation on package that includes enlarged cabinet and “neutral” minister in exchange for agreement on international tribunal; would reduce Hizbollah ability to block government but also remove government’s two-thirds majority. Paris (III) donors conference saw $7.6bn pledged to help long-term recovery from 2006 conflict between Hizbollah and Israel.

• “Diplomacy raises hopes for solution in Lebanon”, Daily Star, 1 Feb. 2007.
• “Money can’t close the sectarian divide in Lebanon”, Independent, 26 Jan. 2007.
• “Don’t blink first”, Economist, 25 Jan. 2007.
• For background, see Crisis Group Middle East Briefing N°20, Lebanon at a Tripwire, 21 Dec. 2006.

Political crisis continued. Hizbollah supporters held mass protests throughout month to demand 1/3 of cabinet positions and early elections to reconstitute cabinet, while PM Fouad Siniora and his Cabinet continued rejecting Hizbollah demands. Maronite Christian leader General Michel Aoun gave public backing to Hizbollah in move seen as bid for presidency. Sides agreed to allow Arab League to mediate dispute: Secretary-General Amr Moussa held meetings with all political leaders in attempt to end political stand-off; reported progress but no breakthrough. 1 killed and several injured in sectarian violence throughout month. Police seized explosives and arrested 4 members of pro-Syrian Lebanese party, Syrian Social Nationalist Party, in northern Koura province 21 December.

• “Lebanon conflict overlaps with Mideast turmoil”, AlertNet, 28 Dec. 2006.
• “Who’s running Lebanon?”, Independent, 15 Dec. 2006.
• For background, see Crisis Group Middle East Briefing N°20, Lebanon at a Tripwire, 21 December 2006.

Political killing and Shiite resignations increased polarisation and brought government close to collapse. Pierre Gemayel, Phalange politician and industry minister, became fifth anti-Syrian Lebanese politician to be killed in 2 years 21 November. Syria denied involvement. Mass funeral rally held 23 November and 2-day national strike 24/25 November. Ruling pro-Western March 14 coalition increasingly embattled after 6 Shiite cabinet members, including 2 Hizbollah, 3 Amal, 1 pro-Lahoud, resigned after coalition insisted on formal approval of UN tribunal on February 2005 Hariri killing. Removal of 2 more cabinet members would make two-thirds quorum impossible. Tribunal approved by cabinet 25 November but President Lahoud refused to give final approval without Shiite vote and called cabinet unconstitutional. Hizbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah stated intention to bring down Siniora government unless national unity formula restored. Military on alert as Nasrallah called for mass “sit-in” protest 1 December in centre of Beirut. Political crisis amplified by sporadic riots and Sunni-Shiite clashes.

• “Lebanon troops prepare for opposition protest”, Reuters, 1 Dec. 2006.
• “Without international support, Lebanon may go under”, Daily Star, 29 Nov. 2006.
• “Lahoud ‘to block’ Lebanon panel”, BBC, 28 Nov. 2006.
• For background, see Crisis Group Middle East Report N°57, Israel/Palestine/Lebanon: Climbing Out of the Abyss, 25 July 2006.

Turkey sent almost 500 soldiers and naval forces to join UNIFIL peacekeepers monitoring ceasefire in south. PM Fouad Siniora dismissed peace overtures by Israeli PM Ehud Olmert, saying Lebanon would be last Arab state to sign deal with Israel. Parliament speaker Nabih Berri called for talks among rival groups to start month-end and focus on forming national unity government, drafting new elections law and confronting country's mounting national debt. Despite previous denials Israel confirmed use of phosphorus shells during war against Hizbollah.

• “Lebanese parliament speaker calls for Oct. 30 meeting of rival politicians”, International Herald Tribune, 25 Oct. 2006. 
• “Annan presses Lebanon on disarming Hezbollah”, AlertNet, 20 Oct. 2006.
• “Turkish peacekeepers join UN force in Lebanon”, AlertNet, 20 Oct. 2006.
• For background, see Crisis Group Middle East Report N°57, Israel/Palestine/Lebanon: Climbing Out of the Abyss, 25 July 2006.

Hizbollah held “victory” rally 22 September. Leader Hassan Nasrallah declared group still possessed over 20,000 rockets; would not immediately disarm but does “not want to keep the weapons forever”. Nasrallah said would release 2 Israeli soldiers, captured in 12 July raid that sparked conflict, if Lebanese militant Samir Qantar plus another, held by Israel for 27 years, also freed. Israeli troop withdrawal from south reportedly completed 1 October. Lebanese troops deployed to Israeli border for first time in 4 decades as required by UNSC resolution 1701. German government approved deployment of 2,400 navy personnel to patrol coast. Turkey and Qatar agreed to send troops to enhanced UNIFIL. UN and Lebanese army experts continued to remove unexploded Israeli ordnance from South Lebanon; investigation opened over use of cluster bombs. Official Israeli army inquiry concluded 25 July bombing of UN observation post and killing of 4 observers result of “tragic error”: UN stated Israel obstructed UN investigation. Head of UN enquiry into February 2005 killing of former PM Hariri reported progress but called for continued international support in briefing to UN Security Council 29 September. Intelligence officer and former investigator into Hariri killing wounded in 5 September attack.

• “Israel withdraws last troops from Lebanon”, Washington Post, 1 Oct. 2006.
• “Little pressure on Hezbollah to disarm”, AP, 28 Sept. 2006.
• For background, see Crisis Group Middle East Report N°57, Israel/Palestine/Lebanon: Climbing Out of the Abyss, 25 July 2006.

Fragile UN-brokered ceasefire commenced 14 August following 34 days of war between Israel and Hizbollah: approximately 1,000 Lebanese and 159 Israelis killed. Hizbollah leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah claimed “historic victory”, while Israeli PM Olmert said ceasefire agreement eliminated Hizbollah’s “state within a state”. Amid public criticism, Israeli army chief admitted failures in logistics, operations and command. UNSC Resolution 1701, which led to ceasefire, calls for Hizbollah to move north of Litani river to allow Lebanese army and strengthened UN force (UNIFIL) of 15,000 to deploy to southern Lebanon. Slow response from EU nations over troop contributions reflected concern about UN force’s mandate and rules of engagement, particularly relating to disarmament of Hizbollah. After initial offer of only 200 additional troops (to existing 200 in UNIFIL) France announced would deploy total of 2,000; Italy pledged further 3,000. Israel said would maintain sea and air blockade until full UN force deployed. UNSG Annan embarked on 11-day tour of region to seek compliance with resolution 1701. U.S. $940 million pledged by international donors at Stockholm conference to help rebuild after what PM Sinoira called, an “unjustified war”.

• “Lebanon’s uneasy truce grows more fragile”, International Herald Tribune, 31 Aug. 2006. 
• “Chirac offer of 2,000 troops breaks impasse on Lebanon peacekeepers”, The Guardian, 25 Aug. 2006.
• “Lebanon faces new challenges”, ISN, 21 Aug. 2006.
• For background, see Crisis Group Middle East Report N°57, Israel/Palestine/Lebanon: Climbing Out of the Abyss, 25 July 2006.

Full scale conflict erupted following brazen cross-border raid by Lebanon-based Hizbollah 12 July abducting 2 and killing 8 soldiers in Israel, with over 750 Lebanese and 51 Israelis now dead, more than half a million Lebanese civilians displaced, and real risk of further escalation and destabilisation. Israel responded to abductions with sea, land and air blockade, attacks on Hizbollah positions in south Lebanon and country-wide bombing of infrastructure. Hizbollah replied with indiscriminate rocket attacks into northern Israel, killing civilians in Haifa, Tiberias, Afula and Nazareth. U.S. and UK claimed Syrian and Iranian support for Hizbollah and backed Israeli actions, while rest of international community criticised Israeli “disproportionate” use of force and called for ceasefire. Despite repeated advance warnings to IDF, 4 UN observers killed by Israeli air strike on their post in town of Khiam 25 July. Israeli PM Olmert initially declared offensive to continue until soldiers freed, Hizbollah disarmed and Lebanese army in control of south, but after hundreds of Lebanese civilians killed, including more than 54 in 30 July bombardment of Qana, and 51 Israeli deaths, including 18 civilians, Israel publicly mooted international force in southern Lebanon. After refusing to support call for immediate ceasefire at 26 July Rome summit, U.S. Sec. State Rice stated intention to lobby for UNSC resolution for “urgent ceasefire, political principles that provide for a long-term settlement and the authorisation of an international force to support the Lebanese army in keeping the peace”. UN request 30 July for 3-day “aid truce” rejected by Israel. Bombing pause, agreed by Israel after Qana devastation, not sustained. Serious risk of further escalation, with Israel mobilising 30,000 reserves and cabinet unanimously agreeing 31 July to widen ground offensive, and Hizbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah saying ready to move attacks further south beyond Haifa; claims made that Hizbollah possesses longer-range ballistic missiles capable of reaching Tel Aviv.

• “Israel to widen ground offensive”, BBC, 1 Aug. 2006.
• “Israeli strike kills dozens in Lebanon”, International Herald Tribune, 30 July 2006. 
• Gareth Evans and Robert Malley (Crisis Group), “Climbing out of the Lebanon abyss”, Slate, 28 July 2006.
• For background, see Crisis Group Middle East Report N°57, Israel/Palestine/Lebanon: Climbing Out of the Abyss, 25 July 2006.

Head of UN investigation into murder of former PM Hariri announced progress and “potential links” between leader’s murder and assassination of 14 other Lebanese political figures. UN Security Council agreed to extend commission for additional year and authorised investigation into related attacks. National dialogue resumed 29 June.

• “Participants have mixed feelings about prospects for next session of dialogue”, Daily Star, 27 June 2006.
• “UN links al-Hariri killing to other murders”, ISN, 15 June 2006. 
• For background, see Crisis Group Middle East Report N°48, Lebanon: Managing the Gathering Storm, 5 Dec. 2005.

Worst cross-border fighting in 6 years erupted 28 May after rockets fired into Israel in apparent response to killing of Islamic Jihad group leader in south. Israeli air strikes targeted Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine camps, leading to exchange of artillery fire, and border skirmishes with Hizbollah: 3 guerrillas reportedly killed before truce brokered by UN. Political leaders held seventh round of “national dialogue” talks 16 May but failed to find consensus on future of pro-Syrian President Lahoud or disarmament of Hizbollah: talks to continue 8 June. Rival leaders’ March pledge to peacefully disarm guerrillas outside camps within 6 months yet to be implemented. Lebanese soldier killed in skirmish with pro-Syrian Palestinian guerrillas 17 May. UN Security Council called for disbandment of all militias inside Lebanon.

• “Lebanon seeks way to disarm Palestinian militia groups”, New York Times, 1 June 2006.
• “UN faults Lebanon for rocket attack that set off border clash”, Daily Star, 30 May 2006.
• For background, see Crisis Group Middle East Report N°48, Lebanon: Managing the Gathering Storm, 5 Dec. 2005.

Debate continued over divisive issues: fate of pro-Syrian President Lahoud and disarmament of Hizbollah. Political leaders failed to reach agreement in talks aimed at ending political crisis; to resume discussions 16 May. PM Siniora, in visit to Washington, linked disarmament of Hizbollah to Israeli withdrawal from disputed Shebaa Farms area. Lebanese authorities arrested 9 Sunnis suspected of planning assassination of Hizbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah.

• “Lebanon talks fail to resolve key issues”, Al Jazeera, 30 Apr. 2006.
• “Lebanon’s battle for independence”, The Washington Post, 24 Apr. 2006.
• For background, see Crisis Group Middle East Report N°48, Lebanon: Managing the Gathering Storm, 5 Dec. 2005.

Main political leaders met 14 March to resolve key issues: agreed on removing weapons from Palestinian factions outside refugee camps, and called for full diplomatic ties with Syria. Talks suspended 27 March with no agreement on ending President Lahoud’s term or Hizbollah disarmament. Lahoud called for early legislative elections, saying would not resign and Hizbollah should keep arms. UN investigators presenting third report into assassination of ex-PM Hariri stated better cooperation from Syria helping investigations. Syrian President Assad agreed to meet investigators in April and did not rule out handing over suspects to international courts. UNSC resolution called for UNSG Annan to begin talks with Lebanon government on establishment of international tribunal.

• “Resolution gives green light for talks on Hariri tribunal”, IRIN, 30 Mar. 2006.
• “Ministers walk out of Lebanese cabinet”, Al Jazeera, 30 Mar. 2006.
• For background, see Crisis Group Middle East Report N°48, Lebanon: Managing the Gathering Storm, 5 Dec. 2005.

First anniversary of assassination of former PM Rafiq Hariri marked 14 February: son and parliament majority leader Saad Hariri branded President Lahoud agent of Syria during mass rally. Major political parties continued efforts to remove Lahoud. 5 pro-Syrian ministers ended their boycott of government after PM characterised Hizbollah guerrillas as national resistance fighters and not militias, allowing them to retain arms. Israeli aircraft and artillery attacked suspected Hizbollah positions in south 3 February after guerrillas attacked military post in border Shebaa Farms area, in retaliation for Israeli troop shooting of teenager inside Lebanese territory. Protests against Danish cartoons of Prophet Mohammed led to burning of Denmark’s Beirut consulate, accidental death of 1 protester and resignation of Interior Minister Hassan Sabei.

• “Lebanon talks seen doing little to end crisis”, Washington Post (Reuters), 28 Feb. 2006.
• “Lebanon remembers Hariri with calls to unseat President”, The Times, 14 Feb. 2006.
• For background, see Crisis Group Middle East Report Crisis Group Middle East Report N°48, Lebanon: Managing the Gathering Storm, 5 Dec. 2005.

Infighting between pro- and anti-Syrian political leaders continued to paralyse reform. UN Security Council criticised Lebanon for failing to disband militias, including Hizbollah and Palestinian armed factions. Belgian Serge Bammertz, deputy prosecutor of International Criminal Court, took over UN investigation into assassination of PM Hariri.

• “Hizbullah says its weapons are a bargaining chip with Israel”, The Daily Star, 1 Feb. 2006.
• “Hizbollah urges Lebanon to deflect UN pressure”, AlertNet, 24 Jan. 2006.
• For background, see Crisis Group Middle East Report Crisis Group Middle East Report N°48, Lebanon: Managing the Gathering Storm, 5 Dec. 2005.

Anti-Syrian journalist and MP Gibran Tueni killed by car bomb 12 December, latest in series of political murders. Cabinet called for international probe into killings. In protest, 5 pro-Syrian Shiite ministers suspended participation in government, putting already fragile coalition in jeopardy. UN investigators presented second report into assassination of ex-PM Hariri, confirming Syrian officials key suspects. UN Security Council extended Hariri investigation by 6 months; asked UNSG Annan to look into expanding commission’s mandate to investigate other attacks on top Lebanese officials.

• “Lebanon’s fragile coalition close to collapse”, Middle East Online, 30 Dec. 2005.
• “Letting down Lebanon at the United Nations”, International Herald Tribune, 19 Dec. 2005.
• For background, see Crisis Group Middle East Report N°39, Syria After Lebanon, Lebanon After Syria, 12 April 2005.

Hizbollah and Israeli soldiers clashed in disputed Shebaa Farms area; 4 Hizbollah fighters killed 21-23 November. UN Security Council expressed concern about hostilities, which it said Hizbollah initiated. President Lahoud interviewed by UN team investigating former PM Hariri’s assassination; denied any involvement.

• “Fresh round of clashes erupts at Lebanon-Israel border”, The Daily Star, 24 Nov. 2005.
• “Lebanon leader quizzed in Hariri probe”, CNN, 12 Nov. 2005.
• For background, see Crisis Group Middle East Report N°39, Syria After Lebanon, Lebanon After Syria, 12 April 2005.

Head of UN commission Detlev Mehlis presented report into killing of former PM Rafiq Hariri 21 October, implicating top-ranking Syrian security officials and their Lebanese allies. Police arrested 5 in connection to Hariri’s death. Mehlis commission’s mandate extended to December 2005. Rise of tensions between Lebanese armed forces and pro-Syrian Palestinian fighters outside refugee camps; PM Siniora met with Palestinian leader Abbas in Paris, called for closure of Palestinian military bases and regulation of fighters inside refugee camps.

• “Lebanon arrest after Hariri probe”, BBC, 23 Oct. 2005.
• “Beirut wants Palestinian bases out”, Christian Science Monitor, 20 Oct. 2005.
• For background, see Crisis Group Middle East Report N°39, Syria After Lebanon, Lebanon After Syria, 12 April 2005.

Country consolidated realignment from Syrian to Franco-American axis with visit of U.S. Sec. State Rice to Beirut and growing isolation of pro-Syrian President Lahoud; Maronite Patriarch appeared to withdraw support from Lahoud, but president pledged to serve out term until 2007. Rice called for Hizbullah disarmament, but did not denounce integration into Lebanon’s cabinet, marking possible acceptance of Hizbullah transformation into political party. Investigation into murder of former PM Rafiq Hariri continued with UN investigator visiting Damascus at Syria’s invitation. 1 killed in Beirut explosion 16 September; 25 September bomb seriously injured anti-Syrian television journalist May Chidiac. Authorities foiled apparent car-bombing attempt 1 October.

• “Lebanon vows to tackle ‘terror’”, Middle East Online, 26 Sept. 2005.   
• “UN questions Syrian officials in Hariri probe”, CNN, 20 Sept. 2005.
• For background, see Crisis Group Middle East Report N°39, Syria After Lebanon, Lebanon After Syria, 12 Apr. 2005.

3 former pro-Syrian security chiefs and head of Republican Guard detained for questioning at request of UN officials investigating murder of former PM Rafiq Hariri. At least 5 wounded in Beirut shopping centre explosion 22 August; motivation unknown. PM Fuad Siniora held talks with Syrian officials in Damascus; both sides declared future relationship to be built on “mutual respect”. Despite Syrian agreement to lift roadblocks at border, flow of Lebanese goods still delayed. UN envoy Geir Pedersen urged Foreign Minister Fawzi Salloukh to deploy forces in south, where Hizbollah guerrillas and Israeli forces exchanged fire.

• “Lebanese hold pro-Syria officials”, BBC, 30 Aug. 2005.
• “Bombing terror returns to Lebanon”, The Daily Star, 23 Aug. 2005.
• For background, see Crisis Group Middle East Report N°39, Syria After Lebanon, Lebanon After Syria, 12 Apr. 2005.

President Lahoud approved PM Fouad Siniora’s cabinet after rejection of 3 previous drafts. In major development, new government includes Hizbollah’s Mohammed Fneish as energy minister; UN said Hizbollah should join national army. 2 Beirut car bombs 12/22 July injured dozens, including pro-Syrian Defence Minister Elias al-Murr. After parliament granted amnesty to anti-Syrian ex-militia leader Samir Geagea, clashes broke out between his supporters and members of Shia Amal movement; 1 killed.

• “Lebanon cabinet unveiled”, Middle East Online, 20 July 2005.
• “Lebanon amnesty sparks violence”, BBC, 19 July 2005.
• For background, see Crisis Group Middle East Report N°39, Syria After Lebanon, Lebanon After Syria, 12 Apr. 2005.

Fear and disenchantment increased as elections plagued by sharp rise in sectarianism and prominent activists assassinated. Anti-Syrian coalition led by Saad Hariri, son of slain former PM Rafiq Hariri, secured majority in parliamentary elections, winning 72 of 128 seats; nominated long-time aide of Rafiq Hariri, Fuad Saniora, as PM. Implications for reform unclear, as leading power-brokers remained in positions of influence - though calls on pro-Syrian President Lahoud to resign mounted. Tensions rose as separate car bomb attacks killed anti-Syrian journalist Samir Kassir and former Communist party leader (and prominent Syria critic) George Hawi. UN team investigating murder of Rafiq Hariri questioned head of presidential guard. Hizbollah mortar attack killed Israeli soldier 29 June; further clashes reported month-end.

• “Lebanon’s parliament names anti-Syrian Siniora PM”, Reuters, 30 June 2005.
• “U.N. Security Council condemns ‘terrorist attacks’ in Lebanon”, AlertNet, 22 June 2005.
• For background, see Crisis Group Middle East Report N°39, Syria After Lebanon, Lebanon After Syria, 12 Apr. 2005.

First of 4-round parliamentary elections held 29 May in Beirut under international supervision. Opposition figures, including Druze leader Walid Jumblatt and Saad al-Hariri, son of slain former PM, won landslide victory but turnout lower than 30%. Michel Aoun, former army commander and prime minister returned 7 May to Lebanon after 14-year exile. Opposition split 25 May led Aoun to announce his Free Patriotic Movement would run independently. Hizbollah looking to increase political power through election: 13 candidates already won uncontested seats. Latest in series of bombs in Christian areas killed 1, injured 7 in town of Jounieh 6 May.

• “Hariri's son seen heading to victory in Lebanon”, International Herald Tribune (AP, Reuters), 30 May 2005.
• “Hizbullah looks set to increase its power in upcoming elections”, The Daily Star, 24 May 2005.
• For background, see Crisis Group Middle East Report N°39, Syria After Lebanon, Lebanon After Syria, 12 Apr. 2005.

Pro-Syrian moderate Najib Mikati appointed PM following resignation of Omar Karami; formed cabinet 19 April, breaking 6-week deadlock between opposition and government. Mikati’s government won vote of confidence 27 April; legislative elections scheduled to begin 29 May. Vote came day after final Syrian withdrawal of troops and intelligence agents in accordance with UNSC Resolution 1559. But leader of Hizbollah, Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, vowed to defy UN demands for Hizbollah to disarm and join political process, saying would keep arms as long as Israel remained threat.

• “Lebanese Cabinet wins overwhelming vote of confidence”, The Daily Star, 28 Apr. 2005.
• “Lebanon enters era with Syrian pullout”, The Daily Star, 27 Apr. 2005.
• “Lebanon PM forms new government”, BBC News, 19 Apr. 2005.
• For background, see Crisis Group Middle East Briefing N°7, Hizbollah: Rebel Without a Cause?, 30 July 2003.

Increasing concern political crisis following February assassination of former PM Hariri could lead country into chaos. Opposition leaders blame Syrian-backed security agencies for several bomb attacks in Christian areas that killed at least 3. Hizbollah organised large pro-Syrian demonstration Beirut 8 March; eclipsed by 800,000-strong counter-demonstration 14 March. U.S. called on Lebanon to follow through with May elections with international monitors, and continued pressing for Hizbollah disarmament, while encouraging peaceful Hizbollah political role. UN fact-finding mission report stated Syrian government primarily responsible for political tension at time of former PM Hariri’s February assassination, and called for independent international investigation. Syrian army and intelligence services continued redeployment to Bekaa valley; Damascus committed to pulling out remaining troops (though not intelligence agents) before May elections.

• ”Syria vows full Lebanon pullout”, BBC, 30 Mar. 2005.
• “Lebanon gives Annan OK to solve Hariri killing”, AlertNet, 24 Mar. 2005.
• “Washington and Hizbullah trade blows on disarmament”, The Daily Star, 17 March 2005.
• For background, see Crisis Group Middle East Briefing N°7, Hizbollah: Rebel Without a Cause?, 30 July 2003.

Extraordinary month as assassination of former PM Rafiq Hariri sparked outrage over Syria’s military presence and political role in Lebanon, and resignation of pro-Syrian government. Anti-Syria protests - some with over 100,000 participants - followed massive 14 February bombing in Beirut, which killed Hariri and at least 17 others, and injured over 200. Suspicions over responsibility centred on Damascus. With rare unity and unprecedented public support, Lebanese opposition demanded resignation of pro-Syria cabinet - achieved 28 February - and withdrawal of Syria’s 14,000 troops in Lebanon (Syria pledged redeployment to Bekaa). International pressure on Syria also intensified, with U.S. and French presidents calling for immediate withdrawal. Syria declared commitment to full withdrawal, but declined to specify timeline.

• “People power brings down Karami cabinet”, The Daily Star, 1 Mar. 2005.
• “Syria ‘commits’ to Lebanon pullout”, CNN, 24 Feb. 2005.
• “International pressure on Damascus intensifies”, The Daily Star, 22 Feb. 2005.
• “A huge crowd in Beirut mourns ex-leader”, International Herald Tribune, 17 Feb. 2005.
• For background, see Crisis Group Middle East Briefing N°7, Hizbollah: Rebel Without a Cause?, 30 July 2003.

Clashes on border with Israel near Shebaa Farms area left approximately 3 dead, including French UN officer. Both U.S. and France said they are closely monitoring drafting of new electoral law, as fair elections in Lebanon will be viewed as key benchmark for April assessment of compliance with UN Security Council Resolution 1559.

• “UN gravely concerned by Hizbollah-Israel violence”, Reuters AlertNet, 18 Jan. 2005.
• For background, see Crisis Group Middle East Briefing, Hizbollah: Rebel Without a Cause?, 30 July 2003.

Opposition groups from across religious and political spectrum called for end to Syrian interference in country’s domestic affairs, forming united front for first time since civil war began 1975. Syria redeployed troops from northern town Batrun and Beirut’s suburbs and airport to Bekaa valley, closer to Syrian-Lebanese border. Palestinian presidential candidate Mahmoud Abbas and PM Ahmed Qurei made 8 December visit, first by senior Palestinian officials to Lebanon since 1982 Israeli invasion drove PLO out of country.

• “Lebanese wary of a rising Hezbollah”, The Washington Post, 20 Dec. 2004.
• “More Syria troops move in Lebanon”, BBC, 18 Dec. 2004.
• “Lebanese groups unite over Syria”, BBC, 13 Dec. 2004.
• For background, see Crisis Group Middle East Briefing, Hizbollah: Rebel Without a Cause?, 30 July 2003.

Syrian interference in Lebanese affairs continued to cause widespread discontent. New Lebanese cabinet, hand-picked by Syria and composed of largely unknown or second-rate politicians, received half-hearted vote of confidence by parliament, with smallest majority since 1990. Strikingly, even Syrian-backed Hizbollah abstained, possibly for fear of alienating own Shiite constituency. UN called for calm along Lebanon-Israel border after Hizbollah sent unmanned drone plane over Israel.

• Comment by Michael Young, “If independence is the goal, Lebanon’s opposition is lethargic”, The Daily Star, 25 Nov. 2004.
• “UN urges calm on Lebanon border”, BBC, 8 Nov. 2004.
• “Lebanese cabinet faces fierce criticism ahead of vote”, The Daily Star, 5 Nov. 2004.
• For background, see ICG Middle East Briefing, Hizbollah: Rebel Without a Cause?, 30 July 2003.

PM Rafiq Hariri resigned along with cabinet in protest at parliament’s extension of President Emile Lahoud’s term in office. Pro-Syrian parliamentarian Omar Karami named new PM. Former economy minister Marwan Hamadeh, who also stepped down to protest Lahoud’s extended term, wounded in assassination attempt 1 October. Hariri’s resignation came day after UN Security Council adopted unanimous statement urging Syria to withdraw its 14,000 troops from Lebanon. (See also Syria.)

• “Lebanon’s prime minister ends role in government”, International Herald Tribune (AP, Reuters), 21 Oct. 2004.
• “UN urges Syria to leave Lebanon”, BBC, 19 Oct. 2004.
• “Sectarian tensions simmer in Lebanon”, The Washington Post, 13 Oct. 2004.
• For background, see ICG Middle East Briefing, Hizbollah: Rebel Without a Cause?, 30 July 2003.

Parliament voted 96-29 to pass Syria-inspired constitutional amendment extending term of President Emile Lahoud, sparking resignations of 4 Lebanese ministers. UN passed resolution urging Syria, with 17,000 troops stationed in Lebanon, not to interfere in Lebanon’s domestic politics. Syria responded by announcing partial withdrawal of troops - move unlikely to diminish influence over Lebanese politics. U.S. Assistant Secretary of State William Burns visited Damascus mid-September, pushed for Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon.

• “Syria begins dismantling some outposts in Lebanon”, The Washington Post, 22 September 2004.
• “4 Lebanon ministers quit over president’s term”, International Herald Tribune, 7 Sept. 2004.
• For background, see ICG Middle East Briefing, Hizbollah: Rebel Without a Cause?, 30 Jul. 2003.

Under heavy pressure from Syria, Lebanese cabinet approved bill to amend constitution to allow President Emile Lahoud to stay on as country’s leader after 6-year term ends in November 2004. Bill likely to be approved by parliament in September, despite strong domestic opposition. Newly re-elected leader of Hizbollah, Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, said German-mediated talks with Israel on possible prisoner exchange continue.

• “Move to bolster Lebanon president”, BBC, 28 Aug. 2004.
• “Hizbollah leader says prisoner swap talks still on”, Reuters AlertNet, 21 Aug. 2004.
• For background, see ICG Middle East Briefing, Hizbollah: Rebel Without a Cause?, 30 Jul. 2003.

Hizbollah said bomb that killed senior member of guerrilla group in Beirut 19 July planted by Israeli agents. Heightened tensions followed attack, with sides exchanging fire 20 July, leaving 2 Israeli soldiers and 1 guerrilla dead, and with Israeli jets breaking sound barrier over Beirut.

• “UN urges restraint after Israel-Hizbollah clashes”, Reuters AlertNet, 21 July 2004.
• “Bomb kills veteran Hezbollah guerrilla”, International Herald Tribune (AP), 20 July 2004.
• For background, see ICG Middle East Briefing, Hizbollah: Rebel Without a Cause?, 30 Jul. 2003.

Israeli warplanes struck Palestinian target deep in Lebanon 7 June, hours after rockets fired from Lebanese territory narrowly missed Israeli naval vessel. Sides also exchanged fire along border 20 June.

• “Israeli warplanes hit Lebanese guerrilla site”, The Washington Post, 21 June 2004.
• “Israel warns Lebanon after raid”, BBC, 8 June 2004.
• For background, see ICG Middle East Briefing, Hizbollah: Rebel Without a Cause?, 30 July 2003.

Soldiers in Beirut killed 5 and injured dozens during protests against high fuel prices and poor state of economy. Unrest worst in decade. Series of clashes along Israeli border 5-7 May, as Hizbollah guerrillas fired shells into northern Israel following Israeli overflights of Lebanese territory. Violence left 1 Israeli soldier dead and 5 wounded. Negotiations on second round of German-mediated prisoner exchange reportedly nearing breakthrough.

• "'Five dead in Lebanon protests", BBC, 27 May 2004.
• "Hizbollah kills Israeli soldier in border area", Reuters Alertnet, 7 May 2004.
• For background, see ICG Middle East Briefing, Hizbollah: Rebel Without a Cause?, 30 Jul. 2003.

Israeli army chief said 26 April second stage of German-mediated prisoner exchange between Israel and Hizbollah progressing and could lead to information on fate of Ron Arad, Israeli airman missing since 1986.

• "Israeli army chief: Second prisoner swap effort progressing", The Daily Star, 27 Apr. 2004.
• For background, see ICG Middle East Briefing, Hizbollah: Rebel Without a Cause?, 30 July 2003.

Hizbollah guerrillas launched attacks on Israeli military positions in Shebaa Farms area 22 March, drawing retaliatory strikes by Israeli forces. Attacks in response to Israel’s killing of Hamas leader Sheikh Ahmed Yassin. Hizbollah vowed further revenge. Two Palestinians killed 23 March in Israeli airstrike in south Lebanon after allegedly firing missiles into Israel. Signs of unrest among students as 300 demonstrated in Beirut 12 March against Syrian presence in Lebanon.

• “Two Palestinians killed in Israel strike on Lebanon”, Reuters AlertNet, 24 Mar. 2004.
• “Lebanese riot police break up anti-Syria protest”, Reuters AlertNet, 12 Mar. 2004.
• For background, see ICG Middle East Briefing, Hizbollah: Rebel Without a Cause?, 30 July 2003.

Despite concerns expressed by UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan, Hizbollah said it has right to mine Israeli border. Israeli jets continued to violate Lebanese airspace. Following January prisoner exchange with Israel, new swap expected in coming months. Talks to focus on fate of missing Israeli pilot Ron Arad.

• “Hizbollah says it has right to mine Israeli border”, Reuters AlertNet, 15 Feb. 2004.
• Farid El Khazen, “Hizbollah: The exception to the norm”, Arab Reform Bulletin, Feb. 2004.
• For background, see ICG Middle East Briefing, Hizbollah: Rebel Without a Cause?, 30 July 2003.

Following years of negotiation, German-mediated prisoner exchange between Israel and Hizbollah took place 29 January. Deal saw Israel release 23 Lebanese, 400 Palestinian, and 12 other Arab prisoners in exchange for Israeli businessman and bodies of 3 soldiers. Agreement reached despite violence along Lebanese border and tensions between Israel and Syria, Hizbollah’s main backer. On 19 January Hizbollah guerrillas fired anti-tank missile at IDF bulldozer which had crossed several meters into Lebanese territory, killing Israeli soldier. Israeli warplanes struck Hizbollah positions in southern Lebanon following day.

• “Israel and Hezbollah swap prisoners, soldiers’ remains”, CNN, 29 Jan. 2004.
• “Israeli warplanes strike Lebanon after attack”, Reuters AlertNet, 20 Jan. 2004.
• For background, see ICG Middle East Briefing, Hizbollah: Rebel Without a Cause?, 30 July 2003.

Israeli troops shot and killed 2 Lebanese men carrying hunting rifles along border with Israel 9 December. Lebanese security forces arrested 2 citizens suspected of planning to bomb U.S. embassy in Beirut.

• “’Bomber’ seized at Beirut embassy”, BBC, 10 Dec. 2003.
• “Israeli forces kill two gunmen on Lebanon border”, Reuters AlertNet, 9 Dec. 2003.
• Daniel Byman, “Should Hezbollah be next?”, Foreign Affairs (for purchase), Nov./Dec. 2003.
• For background, see ICG Middle East Briefing, Hizbollah: Rebel Without a Cause?, 30 July 2003.

Negotiations ongoing between Hizbollah, Israel, and German mediators over possible prisoner swap. Deal would see about 20 Lebanese prisoners and some 400 Palestinians freed in exchange for Israeli businessman and bodies of three soldiers, but Hizbollah insisting on release of Samir Kantar, Lebanese man imprisoned for killing Israeli family in 1979.

• “Hizbollah meets mediators on Israel prisoner swap”, Reuters AlertNet, 17 Nov. 2003.
• For background, see ICG Middle East Briefing, Hizbollah: Rebel Without a Cause?, 30 July 2003.

Israeli soldier killed 7 October in clash on Lebanese border amid heightened regional tensions after Israeli raid on Syria days earlier. Second exchange of fire 27 October as Hizbollah guerrillas attacked Israeli positions in Shebaa Farms and Israel responded with air strikes.

• “Hizbullah rockets hit Israeli posts”, The Guardian, 28 Oct. 2003.
• For background, see ICG Middle East Briefing, Hizbollah: Rebel Without a Cause?, 30 July 2003.

Israeli jets attacked suspected Hizbollah gun position in southern Lebanon on 3 September. Raid was first since 10 August, when shells fired by Hizbollah killed one Israeli and wounded five others, breaking period of calm along border. Incident between Lebanese army and Hizbollah guerrillas left one guerrilla dead after troops intervened in dispute between Hizbollah and rival Shiite party. Government on defensive after ordering banks to reveal accounts of Hamas members whose assets U.S. wants frozen. Prisoner swap between Hizbollah and Israel appears likely.

• “Deal is near on exchange of prisoners, Sharon says”, International Herald Tribune, 24 September 2003.
• “Hamas shocked by Lebanese probe for assets”, Reuters AlertNet, 22 September 2003.
• “Israeli jets fire on Lebanon”, BBC News, 3 September 2003.
• For background, see ICG Middle East Briefing, Hizbollah: Rebel Without a Cause?, 30 July 2003.

Hizbollah fired shells into Israel on 10 August killing one person and wounding 5 others; attack came in wake of killing of Hizbollah leader in Beirut and days after group exchanged artillery fire with Israel for first time in 8 months. Violence erupted despite signs that Hizbollah being forced to rein in military activities because of intense U.S. pressure on Syria and Iran, group’s main backers. More anti-aircraft rounds fired on 31 August when Israeli planes entered Lebanese airspace.

• “Hizbollah fires at Israeli jets over Lebanon”, Reuters, 31 August 2003.
• “One dead, five injured in Hezbollah shelling in Israel; Israel responds by attacking targets in Lebanon”, Associated Press, 10 August 2003.
• For background, see ICG Middle East Briefing, Hizbollah: Rebel Without a Cause?, 30 July 2003.