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Militants responded to army’s operation in S Waziristan with significant escalation of violence, leaving hundreds dead in string of attacks across country, many targeting security forces. More than 100 killed in 28 Oct bombing of Peshawar market; 13 killed, including 4 militants, after Taliban 10 Oct stormed military HQ in Rawalpindi, taking hostages; at least 48 killed, hundreds injured, in 9 Oct Peshawar suicide blast; 5 killed in 5 Oct suicide attack on UN WFP Islamabad HQ. Army 17 Oct launched heavy ground offensive into S Waziristan, 24 Oct announced capture of key town Kotkai. At least 200,000 displaced by fighting; evidence that military impeding humanitarian assistance, with ICRC senior official 23 Oct claiming humanitarian access to IDPs being denied. Gunmen 25 Oct killed Balochistan Education Minister Shafiq Ahmed Khan in Quetta; separatist BULF group claimed responsibility. U.S. President Obama 15 Oct signed bill tripling aid to Pakistan to US$1.5bn per year for 5 years; Pakistani army had said “seriously concerned” bill could impose on Pakistan’s sovereignty.

• “There they go again”, Economist, 22 Oct. 2009.

Govt announced most of displaced from Apr military offensive now returned to Malakand district, including Swat valley, but sporadic clashes with militants continued in region throughout month. Army 1 Sept launched offensive against Taliban in Khyber region, reported more than 150 militants killed during month. Army 11 Sept arrested Taliban spokesman Muslim Khan, 22 Sept commander Mohammad Nasim Shah; 1st arrests of top Taliban commanders since offensive began Apr. Army denied accusations of extrajudicial killings of captured militants in Swat. Religious affairs minister Hamid Saeed Kazmi survived 2 Sept Islamabad attack by unidentified gunmen. At least 30 killed in 17, 18 Sept Kohat suicide blasts, no claim of responsibility. 27 killed in 26 Sept suicide attacks in Bannu, NWFP capital Peshawar, Taliban claimed responsibility. U.S. Senate 24 Sept passed bill to triple Pakistan non-military aid to US$1.5b per year.

• “Pakistan army said to be linked to Swat killings”, New York Times, 14 Sept. 2009.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Briefing N°93, Pakistan’s IDP Crisis: Challenges and Opportunities, 3 June 2009.

Pakistan Taliban leader Baitullah Mehsud killed in 5 Aug U.S. drone strike in S Waziristan; Hakimullah Mehsud named as successor 23 Aug, contradicting reports he had been killed in internal Taliban power struggle early month. Hundreds of thousands displaced by military offensive against Taliban returned to Swat valley region during month, but 14, 30 Aug Mingora suicide blasts killing at least 17 raised fears of renewed violence. Army 18 Aug said planned S Waziristan offensive “months” away, cited lack of equipment. 7 Christians killed 1 Aug in religious violence in Gojra, Punjab. President Zardari 14 Aug instituted changes in the Frontier Crimes Regulations in Federally Administered Tribal Areas, including allowing political party activity and curbs on arbitrary arrests. Opposition made repeated calls for treason trial against ex-President Musharraf; PM Gilani 20 Aug said consensus among all parliamentary parties needed first, as ruling PPP still undecided. 22 border guards killed in 27 Aug Khyber agency suicide blast, Taliban suspected.

• “Falling out”, Economist, 27 Aug. 2009.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Briefing N°93, Pakistan’s IDP Crisis: Challenges and Opportunities, 3 June 2009.

Army 1 July said Swat valley all but under military control, though none of top 21 Taliban commanders captured or killed; sporadic clashes continued throughout month. Govt 10 July announced start of phased return of some 3m displaced by fighting; UN expressed support for operation; hundreds of thousands returned by end-month. Taliban 23 July denied govt claim that Swat Taliban leader Fazlullah critically wounded. Planned army offensive against Taliban in North and South Waziristan on hold, although sporadic air strikes continued; dozens of militants killed by U.S. drone strikes on 3, 7, 17 July in regions. Supreme Court (SC) 17 July cleared opposition PML-N party leader Nawaz Sharif of all criminal charges, removing ban on him standing in elections. 13 killed in 13 July blast in Mian Channu, Punjab province. 2 killed, including UN staffer, in 16 July attack by suspected Taliban gunmen in Peshawar IDP camp. SC 31 July ruled emergency rule imposed by ex-President Musharraf Nov 2007 illegal, opening for possible treason charges against Musharraf.

• “Pakistan’s 2 million displaced start returning home”, Reuters, 13 July 2009.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Briefing N°93, Pakistan’s IDP Crisis: Challenges and Opportunities, 3 June 2009.

Military offensive against Taliban in northwest continued: army 22 June claimed operation in Swat valley “near its end”; 14 June announced new offensive in S Waziristan, targeting Taliban leader Baitullah Mehsud. 60 militants reportedly killed in 23 June U.S. drone strike in S Waziristan; Taliban N Waziristan militant group 30 June withdrew from govt peace deal, said will launch attacks on security forces. Desperate humanitarian situation remains for close to 3m displaced by fighting, and 10,000s remaining in Malakand Division, including Swat district, with little access to basic supplies. Wave of Taliban suicide bombings in response to offensive continued: 11 killed, including 2 UN staff, in 10 June terrorist attack on Peshawar hotel; some 40 killed in 5 June attack on mosque in Upper Dir district; 9 killed in 2 separate 13 June bombings in Lahore and Nowshera. 1st ever EU-Pakistan summit held mid-month, EU pledged US$27m in immediate aid to current crisis in northwest. U.S. Senate 24 June approved bill increasing aid to US$1.5b per year for next 5 years.

• Comment by Samina Ahmed (Crisis Group), “The Peshawar Problem”, Foreign Policy, 19 June 2009.
• “Tough battle in Pakistan insurgency stronghold”, New York Times, 15 June 2009.

Heavy army offensive against Taliban in northwest continued, launched in Apr after peace agreement violated by militants, prompting massive humanitarian crisis with more than 2.4m displaced. Army commenced heavy bombing in Swat districts of Malakand division 8 May; claim some 1,200 militants, 90 soldiers killed since, 4,000-5,000 Taliban estimated remaining in Swat. Army 15 May claimed Buner district, seized by Taliban Apr, now safe and “80%” under govt control; 20 May announced capture of Taliban stronghold Sultanwas. Military 30 May said in control of largest Swat town Mingora; offensive likely to continue into S Waziristan. No independent verification of military’s accounts of operations, outcome available. All political parties except Islamist Jamaat-e-Islami expressed support for offensive at 19 May conference. UNHCR 19 May called for “urgent and massive” international help for displaced. U.S. Sec. Defense Gates 8 May praised Pakistan’s “strong response” to Taliban threat. Several Taliban urban attacks: 10 killed in 11 May Peshawar suicide blast; at least 24 killed, 300 injured in Lahore 27 May .

• Comment by Samina Ahmad (Crisis Group), “Winning the Hearts and Minds of Pakistan’s Displaced”, GlobalPost, 26 May 2009.
• “Swat valley could be worst refugee crisis since Rwanda, UN warns”, Guardian, 18 May 2009.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Report N°164, Pakistan: The Militant Jihadi Challenge, 13 March 2009.

As part of peace agreement with Taliban, President Zardari 13 Apr approved imposition of Sharia law in NWFP’s Malakand division, including Swat district; U.S. highly critical, said govt “abdicating” to militants. Despite govt claims Taliban had pledged to disarm in deal, Taliban 15 Apr said “out of the question” to lay down arms: 22 Apr took control of parts of Buner district, but 24 Apr announced withdrawal from region after govt threatened military action. Army 26 Apr launched offensive against Taliban in Lower Dir district, claimed some 70 militants killed and operation successful; Taliban in response suspended talks with govt. Army 28 April launched further offensive against militants in Buner district. U.S. drone attacks killed 12 in Orakzai agency 1 Apr, 13 in N Waziristan 4 Apr. At least 26 killed, 50 wounded in 5 April Chakwal suicide blast on Shiite mosque, Taliban claimed responsibility. At least 8 killed in Balochistan riots after mutilated corpses of 3 Balochistan nationalist leaders found 3 Apr. Ethnic violence in Karachi 29 April left at least 26 dead, mostly Pashtun. Donors 17 Apr pledged over US$5b in aid to Pakistan over coming 2 years.

• “Pakistan army pushes Taliban back, urged on by Obama”, Reuters, 30 Apr. 2009.
• “Taliban reaches beyond Swat Valley in Pakistan”, Guardian, 25 Apr. 2009.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Report N°164, Pakistan: The Militant Jihadi Challenge, 13 March 2009.

President Zardari 16 March agreed to reinstate Supreme Court Judge Iftikhar Chaudhry, sacked by ex-President Musharraf Nov 2007. Opposition (PML-N) leader Nawaz Sharif mid-month led thousands on “long march” through country, demanding Chaudhry’s reinstatement; frequent clashes with police, hundreds detained. Chaudhry officially reinstated 21 March. Supreme Court 31 March lifted Nawaz Sharif’s ban on holding elected office; reinstalled Shahbaz Sharif as Chief Minister of Punjab. Gunmen 4 March attacked Sri Lanka cricket team in Lahore: 6 police, 2 civilians killed, 5 players injured. Govt 7 March said Pakistani militant groups likely responsible; Lashkar-e-Tayyba militants 6 March denied involvement. At least 70 killed, 125 injured in Khyber agency mosque suicide bombing on 27 March. Missile strike killed 8 in S Waziristan 1 March. Military-dictated peace deal signed with tribal militants in Bajaur Agency 10 March. Gunmen 30 March attacked, captured Lahore police academy, retaken by security forces shortly after; 18 killed, Pakistani Taliban chief Baitullah Mehsud claimed responsibility.

• Comment by Robert Templer (Crisis Group), “Call in the Police (but Please Help them First)”, Foreign Policy: The Argument, 27 March 2009.
• “Why Pakistan’s president gave in”, Christian Science Monitor, 18 March 2009.
• “Pakistani tribe signs pact to cooperate with officials”, New York Times, 9 March 2009.

Supreme Court 25 Feb barred opposition (PML-N) leader Nawaz Sharif and brother from holding office. Thousands of PML-N supporters protested in Lahore and Rawalpindi, objecting to ruling they alleged was politicised: court ruling based on a “kidnapping” conviction handed to Sharif after he sought to block Musharraf’s 1999 coup. President Zardari ordered PPP provincial governor to administer Punjab, core of PML-N support, for 2 months, raising tensions further. In Swat valley, militants 24 Feb announced “indefinite ceasefire”; announcement came week after deal with govt to introduce sharia courts in area, but federal govt yet to finalise deal, which elicited significant concern from international partners. U.S. missile strikes in area continued amid apparent expansion targeting camps run by Maulana Fazlulah. 25 killed in S Waziristan missile strike 14 Feb. Geo TV journalist covering Swat peace deal shot dead 18 Feb. 25 killed in bomb attack on funeral procession in Dera Ismail Khan 20 Feb. After meetings with FM Qureshi and Afghan FM in Washington 24-26 Feb, U.S. State Sec. Clinton pledged regular trilateral meetings.

• “Obama expands missile strikes inside Pakistan”, New York Times, 20 Feb. 2009.
• “Islamic law instituted In Pakistan’s Swat valley”, Washington Post, 17 Feb. 2009.
• For latest report, see Crisis Group Asia Report N°160, Reforming the Judiciary in Pakistan, 16 Oct. 2008.

As military operations continued in NWFP, President Zardari 22 Jan underscored govt policy of no political settlement with groups unwilling to accept writ of state. Paramilitary operation launched in Mohmand agency mid-month; govt claimed some 60 killed 19-20 Jan. Some 20 killed in U.S. missile strikes – first under new U.S. administration – in N. and S. Waziristan 23 Jan. NATO SG de Hoop Scheffer visited Islamabad 21-22 Jan, said no evidence of impact of Pakistani efforts to curb militancy in north west. 5 small explosions in Lahore 10 Jan as U.S. VP-elect Biden arrived to discuss regional security; incoming administration in Washington emphasised future military aid would be conditioned on counter-insurgency progress.

• “Pakistan tackles Swat, a key militant area”, Christian Science Monitor, 30 Jan. 2009.
• “Suspected U.S. missile strikes kill at least 20 in Pakistan”, Washington Post, 23 Jan. 2009.
• For latest report, see Crisis Group Asia Report N°160, Reforming the Judiciary in Pakistan, 16 Oct. 2008.

UK PM Brown visited Islamabad 14 Dec, noted 75% of UK terror attacks have link to Pakistan and pledged $9m in counter-terrorism assistance to country. Founder of Lashkar-e-Tayyaba, militant group believed linked to Nov Mumbai attacks, placed under house arrest by Pakistani authorities 11 Dec after sustained Indian pressure. At least 6 attacks on NATO supply depots near Peshawar in first 2 weeks of month. Khyber Pass briefly closed 30 Dec-2 Jan amid intensified Frontier Crops operations in Khyber agency targeting militants; forces claimed over 70 arrested, some reports indicated targets simply fled elsewhere. Bombing near Shiite mosque in Peshawar market 5 Dec killed some 30. 4 killed in continued ethnic violence in Karachi 2 Dec; reported 40 killed since outbreak late Nov. 34 killed in 28 Dec suicide attack on polling centre during National Assembly by-election in Buner agency, NWFP.

• “Taliban hit Pakistan town that fought back”, New York Times, 28 Dec. 2008.
• “PM offers pact to stop Pakistan exporting terror”, Guardian, 15 Dec. 2008.
• For latest report, see Crisis Group Asia Report N°160, Reforming the Judiciary in Pakistan, 16 Oct. 2008.

FM Qureshi disclosed ISI “political wing” had been disbanded, allowing ISI to focus on counter-terrorism operations. U.S. cross-border missile strikes continued throughout month as Pakistan military operations continued and suicide bombings hit Tribal Areas; U.S. strike on N Waziristan 22 Nov killed 5, reportedly including man linked to 2006 al-Qaeda plot to blow up UK airliners. USAID contractor shot dead in Peshawar 12 Nov. 10 Nov highway attack near Peshawar targeted NATO supply convoys headed to Afghanistan, a dozen trucks hijacked; 2 killed in further attack 1 Dec. President, PM, convened all-party conference 30 Nov to consider response to increased tensions with India (see Kashmir). Over 20 killed in violence between Pashtuns and Urdu-speaking mohajirs in Karachi 29-30 Nov. IMF 24 Nov agreed $7.6bn loan.

• “Islamabad tries to take military out of politics”, Financial Times, 24 Nov. 2008.
• “U.S. kills al-Qaeda suspect”, Washington Post, 23 Nov. 2008.
• For latest report, see Crisis Group Asia Report N°160, Reforming the Judiciary in Pakistan, 16 Oct. 2008.

Parliament in 22 Oct joint session passed unanimous resolution calling extremism, militancy and terrorism grave threat to country’s stability and stressing territory would not be used for attacks on other countries. Resolution called on military to end operations in north west. Chief of Frontier Corps 25 Oct said operations underway in Bajaur might last over a year; later changed assessment to end Nov 2008, after widespread criticism. Foreign ministry lodged formal protest 29 Oct calling on U.S. to stop missile attacks in Pakistan; drone in S Waziristan 27 Oct killed 20, 31 Oct killed 21. Govt 26 Oct announced roadmap for resolution of conflict in Balochistan centred on rebuilding institutions and redistributing natural resource revenues through constitutional changes. Magnitude 6.4 earthquake near Quetta, Balochistan 29 Oct killed over 200.

• “Roadmap to resolve Balochistan tangle unveiled”, Dawn, 26 Oct. 2008.
• “U.S. takes to air to hit militants inside Pakistan”, New York Times, 26 Oct. 2008.
• “Pakistan revives tribal militias but risks backlash”, Reuters, 24 Oct. 2008.

Powerful bomb exploded at Islamabad Marriott hotel 20 Sept, killing at least 53, including Czech ambassador and 2 U.S. marines, and injuring hundreds. Attack came hours after President Asif Zardari’s first address to parliament, in which he stressed parliamentary sovereignty through revisions to 17th Amendment and renewed commitment to fighting extremism in tribal belt through 3-pronged strategy: negotiations with militants who renounce violence, economic and political reform, and use of force against those challenging state’s writ. Zardari, leader of PPP, elected by national, regional assemblies 6 Sept. First U.S. cross-border commando raid 3 Sept in North Waziristan killed 15 people, first publicly admitted U.S. ground operation in Pakistan. Drone missile attacks 8 Sept killed further 16 people, leading to sharp rebukes from Pakistan govt. Air incursions and U.S. missile drone attacks continued throughout month. 25 Sept cross-border exchange of fire between U.S. and Pakistan troops.

• “US air attack could shake Zardari regime”, Financial Times, 8 Sept. 2008.
• “Reported US attack pushes Afghanistan war into Pakistan”, Guardian, 3 Sept. 2008.
• For latest report, see Crisis Group Asia Report N°157, Reforming Pakistan’s Police, 14 July 2008.

President Musharraf 18 Aug announced resignation, following 7 Aug decision by PPP and PML-N coalition parties to begin impeachment proceedings. Coalition collapsed 25 Aug after PML-N chief Nawaz Sharif said PPP head Asif Ali Zardari failed to honour 7 Aug agreement on reinstating judges sacked by Musharraf in Nov. New president to be elected 6 Sept by national and provincial assemblies: Zardari and PML-N candidate Said Siddiqui, former chief justice, among candidates. Military operations continued in FATA particularly in Bajaur agency, where over 250,000 displaced. Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) claimed responsibility for 19 Aug suicide attack on hospital in Dera Ismail Khan, NWFP, killing 32; threatened more if Bajaur operations continue. Over 60 killed, 100 injured, in 21 Aug bombing at ordnance factory near Islamabad. Govt banned TTP as terrorist organisation, rejecting offers of ceasefire.

• Comment by Robert Templer (Crisis Group), “Seize this chance to support Pakistani democracy”, Financial Times, 1 Sept. 2008.
• “Pakistani push in tribal areas triggers a flood of refugees”, Washington Post, 27 Aug. 2008.
• “Governing coalition collapses in Pakistan”, Washington Post, 26 Aug. 2008.
• For latest report, see Crisis Group Asia Report N°157, Reforming Pakistan’s Police, 14 July 2008.

Peace agreement with Sunni militant sect in Lashkar-i-Islami in Bara, Khyber agency reached 9 July after 12-day military operation: govt said would end curfew imposed 28 June, release captured militants. Baitullah Mehsud 17 July threatened attacks on Awami National Party-led NWFP govt and ANP leaders if operations against militants continued. Scattered attacks elsewhere: 6 July Islamabad bombing killed 18; 7 July explosions in Karachi wounded some 40. Violence erupted in Balochistan following security operations there. In 28-30 June Washington visit, PM Gilani sought support, promised to tackle militancy.

• “Quit operations, Taliban warlord warns Pakistan regional leaders”, Guardian, 19 July 2008.

Govt launched Frontier Corps operation in Khyber agency 28 June, after PM Gilani approved “force as last resort” to restore rule of law 25 June. First military operation in region since Feb elections came amidst increased concern at creep of Taliban towards Peshawar. In response, militant Baitullah Mehsud called off peace agreements with govt as security stepped up around country. Some 20 members of govt-sponsored peace committee killed by Mehsud supporters in S. Waziristan 25 June. Cross-border tensions had escalated with threat by Afghanistan President Karzai to send troops into Pakistan to block cross-border attacks 15 June and U.S. cross-border drone attack in Mohmand agency that killed 11 Pakistani troops 10 June; U.S. claimed in “hot pursuit” of Taliban fighters crossing border. Pressure increased on President Musharraf to resign, including calls from PPP leadership: “long march” by thousands of lawyers from 9 June for restoration of Supreme Court judges sacked by Musharraf. 6 killed in 2 June bombing outside Danish embassy in Islamabad.

• “Pakistani forces move in on Taliban”, Washington Post, 29 June 2008.
• “US bomb kills 11 Pakistani troops”, Guardian, 12 June 2008.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Briefing N°74, After Bhutto's Murder: A Way Forward for Pakistan, 2 January 2008.

PML-N leader Nawaz Sharif withdrew party’s 9 ministers from federal cabinet 12 May, following disagreement with PPP on how to reinstate judges sacked by President Musharraf last Nov. But Sharif said would not seek to destabilise govt, or vote with opposition PML-Q. Continued violence in NWFP: suicide blasts killed 3 in Bannu 6 May, at least 13 in Mardan 18 May. Govt signed peace deal with Swat valley Taliban militants 21 May, promised to gradually pull troops out, impose Sharia law, in return for end to suicide bombings. U.S., NATO criticised deal, fearing increased Taliban Afghanistan attacks. Pakistan re-entered Commonwealth 12 May; membership suspended after Nov imposition of state of emergency.

• “Pakistan defends pacts, says no cross-border attacks”, Reuters, 26 May 2008.
• “The coalition collapses”, Economist, 15 May 2008.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Briefing N°74, After Bhutto’s Murder: A Way Forward for Pakistan, 2 Jan. 2008.

Militant Baitullah Mehsud announced ceasefire in S Waziristan, adjoining districts 23 Apr after talks began between govt and Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan. But Mehsud stopped talks 28 Apr citing differences over scope of military withdrawal. Ceasefire also followed release of Sufi Mohammad by NWFP govt earlier in month. UK FM Miliband called for Pakistan re-entry into Commonwealth; membership suspended after November imposition of state of emergency. 7 killed 9 Apr in Karachi as clashes broke out between lawyers allied with MQM and opponents of President Musharraf. Jalozai refugee camp, home to 70,000 Afghans, officially closed 15 Apr; clashes with police reported as refugees refused to leave.

• “Baitullah abandons peace negotiations”, Dawn, 29 Apr. 2008.
• “Pakistan fury at Nato border raid”, BBC, 24 Apr. 2008.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Briefing N°74, After Bhutto’s Murder: A Way Forward for Pakistan, 2 Jan. 2008.

President Musharraf called 17 March parliamentary session to swear in legislators, 1 month after polls. PPP’s Yousaf Raza Gilani sworn in as PM 25 March, heading PPP, PML-N, ANP coalition government; in first official move, ordered release of former chief justice Iftikhar Chaudhry and 9 other judges sacked and detained by Musharraf. Coalition parties support new approach to terrorism – law enforcement, political reform, dialogue with non-hardline militants – complicating relations with U.S. PPP and PML-N leaders told visiting U.S. senior envoys John Negroponte and Richard Boucher 25 March that policy on all issues, including counter-terrorism and Musharraf’s presidency, to be decided by parliament. In 29 March speech to parliament, Gillani said would repeal Frontier Crimes Regulation governing FATA. Grave insecurity continued: 31 died in twin bombings in Lahore 12 March; attack followed bombing of city’s Naval War College 4 March killing 4. 15 March attack on Islamabad restaurant killed 1, suspected targeted attack on FBI personnel. In tribal areas: 42 killed in Darra Adamkhel 2 March as local jirga ending. 20 dead in missile attack on militants near Wana 16 March; U.S. drones suspected.

• “Moderates hold key in Pakistan”, New York Times, 26 Mar. 2008.
• “Musharraf is quickly losing his grip on Pakistan”, Christian Science Monitor, 24 Mar. 2008.
• “After the mullahs”, Economist, 19 Mar. 2008.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Briefing N°74, After Bhutto’s Murder: A Way Forward for Pakistan, 2 Jan. 2008.

President Musharraf’s PML-Q routed in generally peaceful 18 Feb national and provincial assembly polls. Civilian government may have greater public support in addressing militancy in north and west. Opposition parties PPP and PML-N won 33% and 25% of national seats, respectively; PML-Q 15%. PPP leader Asif Zardari announced plans to form coalition with PML-N “in principle”, said will favour dialogue over military solution in addressing militancy in tribal belt, and hopes to reverse restrictions on media, judiciary imposed by Musharraf, restoring 1973 constitution. Negotiations over shape of government continue. President currently retains constitutional power to dismiss it. Polls mainly non-violent, but selective rigging, including widespread interference in Balochistan, likely inflated PML-Q share. EU observer mission called elections “competitive” but noted transparency flaws. Zardari offered Balochistan apology 24 Feb for government atrocities in region. Grave insecurity continued throughout country: attacks targeted party rallies in NWFP in lead-up to polls, spiked again late in month. Spokesperson for militant Baitullah Mehsud said ceasefire agreed with government 7 Feb, but violence continued. Army surgeon general killed in targeted Rawalpindi attack 25 Feb; 3 aid workers killed in S Waziristan same day. 12 alleged militants killed in missile attack near Wana, S Waziristan, 28 Feb that may have been launched by U.S. 40 killed in suicide bombing at 29 Feb Swat valley funeral of policeman killed in Bannu suicide attack day earlier.

• Comment by Nick Grono (Crisis Group), “A Failed Charm Offensive”, EU Observer, 6 Feb. 2008.
• “Islamic stronghold in Pakistan goes secular”, Christian Science Monitor, 22 Feb. 2008.
• “Pakistan victors want dialogue with militants”, New York Times, 20 Feb. 2008.

Fighting between government forces and militants in tribal belt continued, notably in South Waziristan; hundreds killed. U.S. denied claims it launched late-month missile strike that killed 13 militants in North Waziristan, and may have killed senior al-Qaeda leader Abu Laith al-Libi. Rare suicide bombing in Lahore 10 Jan targeted police, killing 20. U.S. Defence Secretary Gates said U.S. willing to send troops to support Pakistani army in domestic operations; President Musharraf reportedly rejected U.S. military presence. U.S. also said building coordination centres on Pakistan-Afghanistan border staffed with troops from 3 countries to tackle cross-border insurgency. Elections postponed until 18 Feb; Musharraf faced falling approval rates as former generals urged him to step down. PPP lobbied UN to launch independent probe into Benazir Bhutto’s assassination; Scotland Yard provided assistance to Pakistani probe.

• “U.S. troops ‘ready’ to aid Pakistan”, Washington Post, 25 Jan. 2008.
• “Frontier insurgency spills into Peshawar”, New York Times, 18 Jan. 2008.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Briefing N°74, After Bhutto’s Murder: A Way Forward for Pakistan, 2 Jan. 2008.

Former PM and PPP leader Benazir Bhutto assassinated leaving Rawalpindi rally, 27 December, throwing country deeper into political turmoil; some 50 killed in ensuing street violence. Cause of death disputed: government said militant Baitullah Mehsud chief suspect. Bhutto’s husband, Asif Ali Zardari (appointed co-chair of PPP with Bhutto’s 19-year-old son Bilawal after her death), blamed government for providing inadequate security and alleged it provoked violence in aftermath to justify delaying polls. Opposition PPP and PML(N) opposed any delay, but Election Commission announced, 2 January, polls delayed until 18 February. President Musharraf lifted state of effective martial law 15 December, after decreeing constitutional changes immunising him from challenges to October re-election and acts committed during emergency. Supreme Court permanently replaced as 14 judges gave oath same day. Many lawyers arrested in November still detained: leader Aitzaz Ahsan rearrested 1 day after goodwill release 20 December; detention extended 2 January. Suicide attack on mosque near Peshawar 21 December killed 50: former interior minister and head of PPP(S) Aftab Khan Sherpao likely target. Army said had cleared Swat valley towns of pro-Taliban militants 8 December, but 8 killed in suicide attack next day, and 9 soldiers killed in further attack in Kohat, NWFP, 17 December.

• “U.S. isn’t ready to accept Pakistan’s initial findings”, New York Times, 2 Jan. 2008.
• “Bhutto spouse, divisive figure, asserts himself”, New York Times, 1 Jan. 2008.

President Gen. Musharraf imposed martial law 3 November (termed “state of emergency plus”), as court set to rule on 6 October re-election. Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry sacked, other superior judges asked to sign oath of allegiance to Provisional Constitution Order suspending constitution, prompting scores of resignations. Heavy crackdown on dissent followed: thousands of opposition supporters arrested, independent media outlets shut down; government said 3,400 freed 21 November but many still imprisoned. U.S. said would re-examine aid, called on Musharraf to end martial law, but continued to stress country’s importance in “war on terror”; said he hadn’t “crossed any lines”. Legislative elections due by mid-January initially postponed, then rescheduled for 8 January. Musharraf swore in caretaker government 16 November, stepped down as army chief 28 November, handing baton to Gen. Ashfaq Kayani, and said would lift state of emergency 16 December. Former PM Nawaz Sharif returned from exile 25 November to register for January polls but said APDM coalition would boycott if judiciary not re-instated; PPP chair Benazir Bhutto may also boycott, decision due 15 December. Violence in NWFP and Tribal Areas continued; notably Swat valley, where army launched further offensive, and in Parchinar, Kurram agency, where communal clashes killed nearly 100. 15 killed in twin attacks on Rawalpindi military HQ 24 November.

• Comment by Robert Templer (Crisis Group), “Military rule will not quell Pakistan’s Islamists”, Financial Times, 16 Nov. 2007.
• “Musharraf promises to end emergency rule by December 16”, Guardian, 30 Nov. 2007.
• “Pakistan bolstering forces in Northwest”, Washington Post, 19 Nov. 2007.

Army stepped up offensive against militants in Tribal Areas in response to 6 October ambush near Mir Ali in North Waziristan; 9 October raids included heavy air attacks. Fighting also surged in Swat valley, NWFP, after army deployed over 2,000 troops 23 October to fight militants linked to pro-Taliban cleric Maulana Fazlullah. 21 soldiers killed in attack on army convoy in Mingora 25 October; heavy casualties and many displaced as fighting followed. Temporary ceasefire reported 29 October by Fazlullah’s illegal radio broadcast, but fighting resumed quickly. Bloody attack on participants in 18 October Karachi rally to mark PPP leader Benazir Bhutto’s return from exile killed 140, injured more than 500; Bhutto unhurt. Her allegations 2 chief ministers and agency officials involved led to strained relations with Musharraf government. Other deadly suicide attacks followed at Rawalpindi police checkpoint near Musharraf’s army HQ 30 October and on air force bus in Sarghoda 1 November. Musharraf re-elected president 6 October by standing assemblies (PPP boycotted; all other opposition parties resigned from assemblies) but Supreme Court must still rule on his eligibility. Caretaker government due to take over 15 November.

• “Bhutto’s return brings Pakistani politics to a boil”, New York Times, 30 Oct. 2007.
• “Bomb kills 21 in Pakistani army convoy”, LA Times, 26 Oct. 2007.
• “The war heats up”, Economist, 11 Oct. 2007.

Deadly fighting continued along tribal belt, with heavy army casualties in North Waziristan. 250 troops captured near Wana in South Waziristan by pro-Taliban militants late August still detained; negotiations ongoing for release. Powerful blasts in Rawalpindi 4 September killed 25 in targeted attack against security officials; no claims of responsibility. Osama bin Laden declared war against “infidel” President Musharraf in tape released 20 September, same day Election Commission announced 6 October presidential elections in standing national parliament and provincial assemblies. Musharraf cleared as candidate by supreme court 28 September despite dual-hat status as military chief; vowed to give up military post if elected president. Opposition protests grew on streets of Islamabad in response to his candidacy. U.S. issued rare criticism of string of opposition arrests that began mid-month; over 200 freed 27 September. Benazir Bhutto announced 18 October return from exile despite failure to secure public deal with Musharraf; fellow former PM Nawaz Sharif deported to Saudi Arabia within hours of return 10 September.

• “Bargain for troops’ release ruled out”, Dawn, 26 Sept. 2007.
• “US and EU criticise arrests”, Dawn, 25 Sept. 2007.
• “Pakistani electoral process in disarray, observers warn”, Washington Post, 24 Sept. 2007.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Report N°137, Elections, Democracy and Stability in Pakistan, 31 July 2007.

Escalated suicide attacks targeting security forces in North Waziristan and massive army retaliation followed end of Red Mosque siege. Responding to military reinforcements in tribal belt, pro-Taliban militants in South Waziristan renounced peace deal with military; army claimed 60 troops, some 250 militants killed. Some 100 soldiers missing in region 31 August, after earlier abductions in which 1 beheaded, others released. Fatal strikes by U.S. forces into Pakistan from Afghanistan reported. U.S. commanders first claimed, then denied they had Pakistani permission. At cross-border jirga in Kabul 12 August, Musharraf made rare admission Afghan Taliban fighters receiving support from within his country and pledged to fight against them. Critical shifts in political landscape: power-sharing deal between former PM Benazir Bhutto and President Musharraf discussed, stalled; but Bhutto said would return to country soon. Musharraf announced would resign as army chief but only after presidential polls. Supreme Court ruling 23 August allows fellow exiled former PM Nawaz Sharif return: said would contest elections.

• "Talks between Musharraf, rival show signs of breaking down", Washington Post, 1 Sept. 2007.
• "Shelling from Afghanistan leaves 19 dead", Dawn, 27 Aug. 2007.
• "Taliban backed in Pakistan, Musharraf says", Financial Times, 13 Aug. 2007.
• Comment by Mark Schneider (Crisis Group), "Getting Answers on Pakistan", The Boston Globe, 15 Aug. 2007.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Report N°137, Elections, Democracy and Stability in Pakistan, 31 July 2007.

Seizure of Lal Masjid (Red Mosque) by security forces sparked waves of retaliatory violence across border regions, as political and security crisis worsened further. Pakistani army commenced week-long siege of Red Mosque to end 6-month standoff with barricaded radical clerics and student followers 3 July. At least 16 killed first day of confrontation; thousands of militants surrendered 4-5 July whilst hundreds remained. Army stormed mosque 10 July following failed negotiations with mosque leaders; over 70 militants killed, including leader Abdul Rashid. Islamist backlash ensued with intensified attacks on security forces killing at least 180. Attacks coincided with 15 July announcement by militant leaders in North Waziristan they had suspended September peace agreement with Islamabad in response to increased troop deployment in area; government forces claimed 18 deaths in late-month fighting near Miranshah. Bomb attack killed 15 in anti-government rally in Islamabad 17 July; PPP workers likely target. Further suicide bombing in Islamabad 27 July targeted police and killed 14 near Red Mosque. President Musharraf suffered further blow with Supreme Court decision to reinstate suspended Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry 20 July. Musharraf met former PM Benazir Bhutto in Abu Dhabi talks 27 July that could foster power-sharing deal; Bhutto publicly reiterated calls for Musharraf to step down as military chief.

• “Ruling rekindles hope in Pakistan”, Financial Times, 22 July 2007.
• “Showdown at the mosque”, Economist, 12 July 2007.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Report N°130, Pakistan: Karachi’s Madrasas and Violent Extremism, 29 Mar. 2007.

Popular discontent with President Musharraf increased further. Demonstrations in support of suspended Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry continued across country, attracting tens of thousands. Government confirmed opposition activists detained ahead of planned protests. Supreme Court hearing on Chaudhry’s challenge to suspension order and misconduct charge continues. Week-long protest and foreign criticism forced Musharraf to suspend legislation targeting broadcasting outlets critical of his government 10 June. Opposition again rejected suggestions Musharraf eligible for re-election by outgoing legislature; expressed concerns elections will not be free and fair, claiming that voters list disenfranchised more than 20 million. Insurgency-related violence continued: militants ambushed vehicle in Quetta killing 6 soldiers and 3 civilians 14 June; airstrike by unconfirmed source killed 32 pro-Taliban militants North Waziristan 19 June - Pakistan denied claims it was U.S. missile attack launched from Afghanistan. 10 Pakistani civilians killed as NATO fired across border in battle with pro-Taliban insurgents 23 June.

• “Afghan fight crosses Pakistani border, killing 10”, Reuters, 23 June 2007.
• “Hearing on merits of CJ’s petition begins”, Dawn, 12 June 2007.
• Crisis Group Alert, Pakistan: Emergency Rule or Return to Democracy?, 6 June 2007.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Report N°130, Pakistan: Karachi’s Madrasas and Violent Extremism, 29 Mar. 2007.

Instability and violence intensified as President Musharraf’s crisis deepened. Supporters of suspended Chief Justice Iftikhar Hussain Chaudhry continued protest against Musharraf’s rule, including 6 May procession from Islamabad to Lahore by tens of thousands. Over 40 killed in street violence 12 May after members of Muttahida Quami Movement (MQM) party, Musharraf’s local coalition partner, attacked opposition supporters of Chief Justice. Police failed to intervene and government refused enquiry. Hearing on Chaudhry’s suspension referred to Supreme Judicial Council (SJC), but hearing delayed until Supreme Court rules on SJC’s competence in matter. Musharraf ruled out return of former PMs Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif before end-year elections. Bhutto and Sharif insist they will return. Over 25 killed in 15 May suicide bombing in Peshawar hotel; 10 in 29 May car bombing outside courthouse. Border clashes in Paktia province involving Pakistani and Afghan forces led to deaths of over 12 Afghans, as well as 1 U.S. and 1 Pakistani soldier killed by suspected local militia. Clashes followed NATO meeting on easing border tensions.

• “Pakistan’s suspended justice tells of facing down Musharraf”, New York Times, 30 May 2007.
• “Many killed in Pakistan bombing”, BBC, 15 May 2007.
• “Growing influence of Pakistani leader without a party”, Financial Times, 8 May 2007.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Report N°130, Pakistan: Karachi’s Madrasas and Violent Extremism, 29 Mar. 2007.

Internal security concerns rose after 28 April suicide bombing killed 30 and wounded interior minister at Peshawar political rally; prime suspects militants linked to al-Qaeda. Fighting between rival groups of pro-Taliban tribesmen continued in South Waziristan. Islamabad admitted military involvement for first time: supported Pakistani Taliban commander Mullah Nazir against rival pro-Taliban group allied with Uzbek fighters. Nazir now consolidating control over South Waziristan. Controversy deepened over March suspension of top judge Iftikhar Chaudhry, who faced hearing before panel of judges he claimed biased; protests called for President Musharraf’s resignation over issue. 90 Baloch members of Jundallah militant group arrested by Tehran in crackdown after spike in Baloch attacks last month.

• “Pakistani tribes fight alleged al-Qaida allies”, Chicago Tribune, 24 Apr. 2007.
• “Ethnic spat heats up Pakistan-Iran border”, Christian Science Monitor, 18 Apr. 2007.
• “Musharraf faces calls to resign”, Financial Times, 18 Apr. 2007
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Report N°131, Discord in Pakistan’s Northern Areas, 2 Apr. 2007.

Fighting flared in South Waziristan between Uzbek militants and local militias. Violence began 18 March as local militias sought to expel foreign militants from bases near Wana; clashes reportedly killed over 150 foreign fighters. Pakistani intelligence said key al-Qaeda camps destroyed and President Musharraf claimed battles prove success of controversial pacts with local leaders to fight foreign militants. New security pact signed with tribal leaders in Bajaur, where 4 ISI intelligence agents shot 27 March by unidentified gunmen. President Musharraf faced political crisis after suspending Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhary 12 March, sparking wave of judiciary resignations and protests over independence of judiciary; opposition demonstrations called on Musharraf to step down. U.S. Assistant Sec. State Boucher pledged $750 million in assistance to Afghan border areas during visit 15 March.

• “Uzbeks outstay Pashtun welcome”, al Jazeera, 28 Mar. 2007.
• “Toll in Waziristan clashes rises to 132”, Dawn, 23 Mar. 2007.
• “Pakistan judge becomes symbol of revolt”, Financial Times, 20 Mar. 2007.
• For latest report, see Crisis Group Asia Report N°130, Pakistan: Karachi’s Madrasas and Violent Extremism, 29 Mar. 2007.

Spate of suicide attacks across country: sixth in month saw 16 killed in Quetta courtroom 17 February. U.S. intelligence reportedly shows al-Qaeda gathering strength from new bases in North Waziristan, after September 2006 Waziristan accord with Islamabad; Pakistani officials rejected reports as “absurd”. U.S. VP Cheney made surprise visit to Islamabad 26 February to discuss cross-border insurgency, as U.S. considered cutting aid to further pressure Pakistan into action. President Musharraf announced plans 18 February to secure re-election and constitutional amendment allowing him to remain army chief. Iran blamed Pakistan for providing base to Sunni insurgents Tehran claims bombed border city Zahedan early February.

• “Cheney warns Pakistan to act on terrorism”, New York Times, 26 Feb. 2007.
• “Pakistan holds the key to south Asia’s security”, Financial Times, 21 Feb. 2007.
• “Terror officials see Al Qaeda chiefs regaining power”, New York Times, 18 Feb. 2007.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Report N°125, Pakistan’s Tribal Areas: Appeasing the Militants, 11 Dec. 2006.

U.S. increased pressure on Pakistan over its failure to clamp down on terrorism. U.S. intelligence director John Negroponte said al-Qaeda and Taliban leaders still operating from Pakistan base (see Afghanistan). Suicide attack on military convoy in Mirali, North Waziristan 22 January killed 4: first attack since Pakistan’s controversial September Waziristan Accord and likely reprisal to Pakistan strike on militants in South Waziristan 16 January. Locals claimed attack was by U.S. drone. NATO explained U.S.-led coalition helicopter strike in Shawal border region that killed 1 Pakistani solider was “mistake”. Suicide attacks in Islamabad, North Waziristan and NWFP killed more than 20 in run up to Ashura, including attack near Peshawar Shia mosque that killed 15; government said Taliban-based militants responsible.

• “Spate of attacks target Pakistan’s Shia Muslims”, Financial Times, 29 Jan. 2007.
• “US pressures Pakistan over Taliban”, Financial Times, 17 Jan. 2007.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Report N°125, Pakistan’s Tribal Areas: Appeasing the Militants, 11 Dec. 2006.

Supreme Court blocked for second time attempt by North West Frontier Province (NWFP) legislature to pass Hisba (accountability) law enforcing “Islamic morality”. President Musharraf has both times petitioned court to reject law; NWFP government will defend it in January hearing. Islamabad announced plan to build fence and plant landmines along disputed Durand Line border with Afghanistan in effort to stem tide of militants launching cross-border attacks; Afghan President Karzai criticised plan as impractical.

• “Pakistan plans to reinforce long Afghan border”, New York Times, 27 Dec. 2006.
• “‘Taleban law’ blocked in Pakistan”, BBC, 15 Dec. 2006.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Report N°125, Pakistan’s Tribal Areas: Appeasing the Militants, 11 Dec. 2006.

Supreme Court blocked for second time attempt by North West Frontier Province (NWFP) legislature to pass Hisba (accountability) law enforcing “Islamic morality”. President Musharraf has both times petitioned court to reject law; NWFP government will defend it in January hearing. Islamabad announced plan to build fence and plant landmines along disputed Durand Line border with Afghanistan in effort to stem tide of militants launching cross-border attacks; Afghan President Karzai criticised plan as impractical.

• “Pakistan plans to reinforce long Afghan border”, New York Times, 27 Dec. 2006.
• “‘Taleban law’ blocked in Pakistan”, BBC, 15 Dec. 2006.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Report N°125, Pakistan’s Tribal Areas: Appeasing the Militants, 11 Dec. 2006.

Major suicide attack 9 November on military camp in North West Frontier Province killed 42; possible revenge attack for 30 October madrasa bombing in Bajaur. President Musharraf visited Balochistan 17 November to announce increased investment in region, but greeted by “shutter-down strike”, while clashes between troops and Baloch militants near Kohlu intensified in month. In visit to Lahore, UK PM Tony Blair reaffirmed shared commitment to fighting terrorism.

• “Heavy fighting in Kohlu areas”, Dawn, 23 Nov. 2006.
• “42 Pakistani soldiers killed in revenge attack on camp”, Guardian, 9 Nov. 2006.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Report N°119, Pakistan: The Worsening Conflict in Balochistan, 14 Sept. 2006.

Exiled opposition leaders Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif again called for free elections in 2007 and pledged to work together for democratic transition. But renewed rumours that Bhutto due to sign deal with President Musharraf, apparently spread by government, may weaken alliance. Rockets found planted near Musharraf residence in Rawalpindi and in Islamabad near National Assembly and headquarters of military intelligence agency (ISI). Military strike on madrassa in Bajaur killed 80; government claimed school was terrorist training ground.

• “Pakistan’s leader defends airstrike on school”, New York Times, 1 Nov. 2006.
• “Seven years of Musharraf’s ‘general’ rule”, ISN, 12 Oct. 2006.
• “Pakistan toys with new strategy on border”, ISN, 6 Oct. 2006.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Report N°119, Pakistan: The Worsening Conflict in Balochistan, 14 Sept. 2006.

President Musharraf made controversial deal with North Waziristan tribal militants allied to Taliban 5 September: ends military operations against border militants in exchange for end to attacks on army and across border in Afghanistan. But heightened tensions between Islamabad and Kabul may also have strained Pakistan’s relations with NATO, while local governor admitted presence of hundreds al-Qaeda-linked militants in North Waziristan. In Kabul, Musharraf called for new approach against “common enemy” while citing “Talibanisation” of regional terrorism, but relations with Afghan president Karzai remained frosty as both leaders traded blame for ongoing cross-border attacks: state dinner with President Bush and Karzai in Washington 27 September failed to ease tensions. 85 Baloch tribal chiefs held grand jirga in Kalat 21 September, first in 126 years, and called for recognition of Baloch autonomy and end to military operations.

• “In Pakistan, the delicate dance of a key US ally”, Christian Science Monitor, 26 Sept. 2006.
• “Pakistan lets tribal chiefs keep control along border”, New York Times, 6 Sept. 2006.
• Pakistan: The Worsening Conflict in Balochistan, Asia Report N°119, 14 September 2006

Major Balochistan leader, Nawab Akbar Bugti, killed by security forces 26 August. Violent protests and province-wide strikes in Balochistan and Baloch majority areas of Karachi followed. Curfew imposed on Balochistan’s capital Quetta. Bugti’s killing condemned by all major political parties, including opposition Alliance for Democracy: 21 soldiers and 37 rebels also killed in operation. International attention focused on Pakistan’s failure to rein in jihadis as 22 suspects, mostly UK citizens of Pakistani origin, arrested in UK in alleged plot to blow up transatlantic flights. Pakistani intelligence agencies detained UK citizen in Punjab along with 6 nationals countrywide.

• “A death Pakistan can ill afford”, Asia Times Online, 29 Aug. 2006.
• “Problems for Pakistan’s president”, International Herald Tribune, 17 Aug. 2006. 
• “The Pakistan connection: suspicion falls on al-Qaida”, The Guardian, 12 Aug. 2006.
• For most recent report, see Crisis Group Asia Briefing N°46, Pakistan: Political Impact of the Earthquake, 15 Mar. 2006.

Balochistan unrest continued. 23 Baloch militants reportedly killed by security forces in southwest of province 9 July and 30 killed when military targeted Dera Bugti 5 July; rebel spokesperson denied all casualty claims. 150 suspected Taliban arrested in Balochistan after UK placed Balochistan Liberation Army on terror list. North Waziristan militants held talks with military and government officials and extended ceasefire announced end June for further month. In North-West Frontier Province, 6 soldiers killed in roadside bomb 3 July near Peshawar. Sectarian violence continued in Karachi with killing of prominent Shiite cleric Hassan Turabi and nephew by suicide bomber 14 July; angry crowds torched restaurant and petrol stations following funerals.

• “Pakistan haunted by Taliban question as NATO deploys”, AlertNet, 27 July 2006.
• “Musharraf’s ‘crisis on all fronts’”, BBC, 21 July 2006.
• “23 killed in Dera Bugti operation”, Dawn, 10 July 2006.
• For most recent report, see Crisis Group Asia Briefing N°46, Pakistan: Political Impact of the Earthquake, 15 Mar. 2006.

Violence in restive Federally Administered Tribal Areas and Balochistan province continued to intensify. Military raided suspected militant camp in North Waziristan 10 June, killing more than 30. Region experienced first suicide attack 2 June in Bakakhel, which claimed 5 soldiers; another killed 6 soldiers 26 June. Temporary ceasefire offer made month-end by tribal leaders in attempt to facilitate negotiations with military. In Balochistan, 5 militants reportedly killed in military raid on rebel camp in Dera Bugti district 11 June: Baloch regional party leader Nawab Akbar Bugti claimed 12 civilians also killed.

• “Tribesman released in Waziristan”, BBC, 29 June 2006.
• “Islamabad wrestles with its own neo-Taliban dilemma”, RFE/RL, 9 June 2006.
• For most recent report, see Crisis Group Asia Briefing N°46, Pakistan: Political Impact of the Earthquake, 15 Mar. 2006.

Tensions continued to rise in Balochistan following 8 April government ban of Balochistan Liberation Army. Attacks on gas infrastructure and security forces continued: at least 10 killed in pipeline explosion in Sui; and 8 police in separate attacks. Renewed clashes in and around Miranshah, North Waziristan killed 10 militants and police while 3 pro-government tribal leaders killed in separate incidents. In South Waziristan, 2 officials shot dead by militants 12 May. Former PMs Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif signed “Charter of Democracy” in first attempt to forge common platform against military government.

• “The way it was: Some call it the Magna Carta”, Daily Times, 27 May 2006.
• “Baloch insurgents escalate attacks in Pakistan”, ISN (Jamestown Foundation), 24 May 2006.
• For most recent report, see Crisis Group Asia Briefing N°46, Pakistan: Political Impact of the Earthquake, 15 Mar. 2006.

Security situation continued to deteriorate as at least 57 killed in worst terrorist attack in Karachi’s history: suicide bombing of congregation of Sunnis celebrating Eid Milad festival killed entire leadership of Sunni Tehrik group, as well as many leaders of Jamaat Ulema Pakistan (JUP) - both Barelvi religious parties; JUP also partner in Muttahida Majlis-i-Amal 6-party religious alliance. Responsibility for blast unclear: observers suggested intra-Sunni rivalry, others, Deobandi extremist groups. Pro-Taliban militants attacked paramilitary troops near Miranshah, main town of North Waziristan region 20 April reportedly killing 7.

• “‘158 people killed in Balochistan since January 1’”, Dawn, 20 Apr. 2006.
• “Pakistan probe into deadly attack”, BBC, 12 Apr. 2006.
• For most recent report, see Crisis Group Asia Briefing N°46, Pakistan: Political Impact of the Earthquake, 15 Mar. 2006.

Fierce fighting in North Waziristan risked spreading to neighbouring tribal regions. Government claimed nearly 200 local Taliban militants and 5 soldiers killed. Further 25 killed in operation outside Miranshah near Afghan border. Unrest in Balochistan continued with series of mine blasts and attacks on infrastructure: 26 killed in Dera Bugti 10 March. In North West Frontier Province’s Khyber Agency, clash between supporters of rival clerics killed 26.

• “Balochistan ‘militants’ hit power”, BBC, 31 Mar. 2006.
• “Revolution in the Pakistani mountains”, Asia Times Online, 23 Mar. 2006.
• “The other Taliban”, The Economist, 16 Mar. 2006.

Sectarian violence erupted in North West Frontier Province: at least 35 killed in suicide bombing on Shiite Ashura procession and subsequent unrest. Government officials blamed external elements rather than local sectarian tensions, while local Shiite leaders blamed government for failing to curb Sunni militants. 5 days of increasingly violent protests held to denounce publication of cartoons of Prophet Mohammed in western media. Protests turned deadly in Lahore and Peshawar; 5 reported killed. Islamist coalition Muttahida Majlis-i-Amal leader, Qazi Hussain Ahmed, briefly held under house arrest to prevent him leading Islamabad rally 19 February. Unrest continued in South Waziristan as 3 soldiers killed by roadside bomb 5 February. Balochistan rebels intensified insurgency with 2 February rocket attack and 5 February bus bomb: at least 21 killed. Nationwide protest planned against 3 March visit of U.S. President Bush.

• “Mr. Musharraf’s other war”, New York Times, 23 Feb. 2006.
• “Pakistani riots about more than cartoons”, Christian Science Monitor, 17 Feb. 2006.
• “37 die in two Hangu blasts, violence”, Dawn, 11 Feb. 2006.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Briefing N°43, Pakistan’s Local Polls: Shoring Up Military Rule, 22 Nov. 2005.

Major military operations and militant activity continued in Waziristan tribal region and Balochistan province. Clashes in North Waziristan killed at least 37. Government claimed 12 militants killed in attack on Balochistan gas field 11 January. Baloch opposition claimed 12 custodial deaths by Frontier Constabulary. U.S. air strike killed at least 18 villagers in Bajaur tribal agency bordering Afghanistan, prompting widespread protests.

• “Pakistan’s battle over Balochistan”, BBC, 27 Jan. 2006.
• “Conflict in Balochistan: HRCP fact-finding missions”, December 2005-January 2006, Human Rights Commission of Pakistan.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Briefing N°43, Pakistan’s Local Polls: Shoring Up Military Rule, 22 Nov. 2005.

Violence escalated in Waziristan tribal area and Balochistan province. In South Waziristan 12 killed by market bomb in Jandola while 22 killed in separate clashes between Islamist students and bandits in neighbouring North Waziristan. Balochistan unrest worsened as insurgents attacked railway line, fired rockets at government buildings and blew up bridge in response to military operation launched 18 December; unconfirmed reports of heavy casualties. Madrasa leaders rejected government deadline to expel foreign students from religious schools by year-end.

• “Opposition calls for end to Balochistan crackdown”, Dawn, 27 Dec. 2005.
• “Violence grows in Pakistan’s tribal zone, despite army presence”, Christian Science Monitor, 12 Dec. 2005.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Briefing N°43, Pakistan’s Local Polls: Shoring Up Military Rule, 22 Nov. 2005.

Responding to domestic criticism over government’s response to earthquake, President Musharraf deferred procurement of F-16s from U.S. International donors pledged $5.8 billion in aid amid growing concerns for estimated 3.5 million homeless. 15 November blast outside Karachi offices of state-run petroleum company killed 3; 3 alleged Baloch Liberation Army members arrested. Interior Minister Khan Sherpao announced new force to tighten security at national installations in Balochistan province.

• “Pakistan arrests 3 suspects in Karachi bomb attack”, AlertNet, 17 Nov. 2005.
• “Donors Need Accountability on Human Rights”, Human Rights Watch, 16 Nov. 2005.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Report N°102, Authoritarianism and Political Party Reform in Pakistan, 28 Sept. 2005.

Massive earthquake in north killed 55,000; 18,000 in North West Frontier Province. NATO approved dispatch of medics and hundreds of military engineers to clear roads and help reconstruction. Clashes between militants and security forces continued in North and South Waziristan. Gunmen attacked Ahmadi community in Mandi Bahauddin, Punjab, killing 8. Final phase of local government polls 5 October marred by large-scale rigging; results rejected by opposition parties.

• “Relief workers plead for more aid”, International Herald Tribune (AP), 26 Oct. 2005.
• “Opposition calls for independent EC: NA, Senate to take up motions on polls rigging”, The News, 8 Oct. 2005.
• Crisis Group Asia Report N°102, Authoritarianism and Political Party Reform in Pakistan, 28 Sept. 2005.

Bombs in Lahore 22 September killed 9. Continuing unrest in Balochistan including 2 blasts in Kalat targeting infrastructure. Security forces claimed 35 suspected al Qaeda-linked militants killed North Waziristan near Afghan border end September; operations increased after 2 officials killed in Miranshah 5 September. Provisional agreement on dispute with religious schools over registration after both sides accepted to place demand on non-disclosure of funding and non-interference in curricula before parliament. Musharraf assured government’s support to curb violence against women but denounced those who singled out Pakistan for criticism provoking reaction from rights groups.

• “Pakistan madrasas agree to register, show funding”, Financial Express, 23 Sept. 2005.
• “Musharraf’s remarks condemned: Rape victims”, Dawn, 17 Sept. 2005.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Report N°95, The State of Sectarianism in Pakistan, 18 April 2005.

Facing concerted opposition from religious allies, General Musharraf backtracked on promises to clamp down on home-grown extremists and reform madrasas. Musharraf watered down pledge to introduce new law to regulate seminaries that would include mandatory registration, financial oversight, and curriculum reform. Meanwhile, many extremists arrested under Maintenance of Public Order Act released. More than 40 killed and hundreds wounded in clashes during first 2 phases of local body elections. Opposition complained of widespread rigging and intimidation - echoed by Human Rights Commission of Pakistan. Ruling party and allies led in Balochistan, Punjab and Sindh; opposition parties made limited gains in North West Frontier Province.

• “Musharraf gains in local elections”, International Herald Tribune, 1 Sept. 2005.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Report N°95, The State of Sectarianism in Pakistan, 18 April 2005.

International pressure on Islamabad to deal with madrasas, jihadi training camps and cross-border infiltrations increased. UK investigations revealed 3 of 4 suicide bombers responsible for 7 July London attacks recently visited Lahore madrasas, including Laskhar-i-Tayyaba’s Muredke madrasa, known as jihadi training centre, and madrasa Manzoor-ul-Islam, connected to terrorist organisation, Jaish-e-Mohammad, banned 2002 by President Musharraf. New measures announced including registration of all religious schools with government by December. 600 suspected extremists, including 250 members of banned Islamist organisations, arrested in series of raids. Deadly clashes continued in North and South Waziristan tribal agency: U.S.-led coalition troops from Afghanistan and Pakistan security forces killed 41 militants near Afghan border; tribal leader and 4 others shot dead in South Waziristan. Wave of sectarian violence in Gilgit claimed 10 after attacks on bus near Chilas further ignited fighting between rival groups.

• “Pakistani courts face huge backlogs after crackdown”, AlertNet, 31 July 2005.
• “Blair warns Pakistan to rein in militants”, Daily Times, 27 July 2005.
• “The general at war”, The Economist, 21 July 2005.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Report N°95, The State of Sectarianism in Pakistan, 18 April 2005.

Sectarian violence continued in Karachi with 23 June killing of 2 Sunni Muslim clerics. Sub-committee of Parliamentary Committee on Balochistan released long-awaited recommendations, including development package and proposed gas and petroleum royalty be paid to extraction areas; report to go to Senate and National Assembly for approval.

• “A rape victim defies traditional code”, Christian Science Monitor, 27 June 2005.
• “Rs10bn package, jobs proposed for Balochistan: Checkposts in cities to be abolished”, Dawn, 23 June 2005.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Report N°95, The State of Sectarianism in Pakistan, 18 April 2005.

Wave of sectarian violence killed at least 30: suicide bomber in Islamabad Shia shrine 27 May killed 19; second blast in Karachi mosque 30 May claimed 5, followed by riot in which 6 burned to death inside fast-food restaurant. Government continued attempts to silence civilian critics: “Mini-marathon” rally against arbitrary curbs on women by religious extremists held by Human Rights Commission of Pakistan (HRCP) and Joint Action Committee for People’s Rights attacked by police 14 May; founding member of HRCP and Crisis Group board member Asma Jahangir among 40 temporarily detained; second rally unimpeded 21 May. Nawab Bugti accused government of failing to implement troop withdrawal, as insurgent attacks continued in Balochistan. Talks held with India 26-27 May to discuss Siachen Glacier and Sir Creek border disputes ended without progress.

• “Karachi riot kills 6 after suicide attack”, International Herald Tribune, 1 June 2005.
• “Crisis Group condemns attack on Asma Jahangir”, Crisis Group, 20 May 2005.
• “Balochistan future looks bleak: Bugti”, Pak Tibune, 15 May 2005.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Report N°95, The State of Sectarianism in Pakistan, 18 April 2005.

Precarious ceasefire in place between Bugti tribesmen and approx. 300 paramilitary troops in Balochistan after negotiations: Chaudhury Shujaat Hussain, head of federal ruling Pakistan Muslim League party, and Tribal Chief Akbar Bugti reportedly set up accord and agreed to 3-member monitoring committee though details of agreement yet to be released. Continued stalemate in parliament on central government agreement with Baloch regional parties on economic and political autonomy led to continued attacks by militants on security personnel and government installations. Security forces launched search operations for militants in western tribal region of North Waziristan 21 April. Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) plans for rally for leader Benazir Bhutto’s husband Asif Ali Zardari thwarted by massive security operation which saw thousands of PPP supporters arrested: leading PPP politicians, including parliamentarians, later released but many party workers still detained.

• “Bilateral ceasefire in place after Thursday clash: Bugti”, PakTribune, 29 Apr. 2005.
• “The realities of 'peace' in South Asia”, Asia Times, 20 Apr. 2005. 
• “New lines of control emerging in Balochistan”, Khaleej Times, 18 Apr. 2005.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Report N°86, Building Judicial Independence in Pakistan, 9 Nov. 2004.

Dramatic escalation in Balochistan violence. Explosion at Shia shrine in Fatehpur village 19 March killed at least 50; no claim of responsibility. Clashes between paramilitary Frontier Constabulary (FC) and Bugti tribesmen demanding greater economic and political rights killed 23 according to government, but opposition presented to parliament list of 59 civilians who allegedly died in crossfire. Access to Dera Bugti blocked by FC; tribesmen besieged over 300 troops; infrastructure also targeted as 2 bombs detonated on Balochistan trains 18 March. High-level negotiations underway to defuse crisis though deal between military and tribal chief Nawab Akbar Bugti could provoke even more violence by Baloch political activists since will be seen as sellout. Muthahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) opposition alliance of Islamic parties held Karachi rally against President Musharraf and his pro-U.S. policies.

• “New round of talks held in Dera Bugti: 3-man body to be set up”, Dawn, 28 Mar. 2005.
• “Pakistan tribal chief stands firm”, BBC, 22 Mar. 2005.
• “Balochistan bomb blast death toll reaches 50”, ISN, 21 Mar. 2005.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Report N°86, Building Judicial Independence in Pakistan, 9 Nov. 2004.

Situation worsened in Balochistan while internal political dispute destabilised Sindh provincial government. Baloch parties - with support of major Pashtun party - called province-wide strike 12 February, describing strike as referendum on Musharraf government. Two Islamic extremists blew themselves up after gunbattle with police in Quetta 18 February while attacks on infrastructure increased. In Sindh accusations of corruption between chief minister and his revenue minister continued after latter dismissed, destabilising ruling party and provincial government. Peace agreement signed between government and South Waziristan militant leader Baitullah Mehsud and supporters: militants pledged to end attacks on government installations and support for foreign groups in return for exemption from legal and punitive action for past activities - no pledge to end cross-border attacks against Coalition and Afghan government.

• “Balochs 'facing state terrorism'”, Dawn, 28 Feb. 2005.
• “Sindh crisis differences creep up between Musharraf, Shujaat”, Pakistan Times, 28 Feb. 2005.
• “The world according to the Baloch”, BBC, 8 Feb. 2005.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Report N°86, Building Judicial Independence in Pakistan, 9 Nov. 2004.

Balochistan violence escalated: 13 killed, over 40 injured, while natural gas supply to half the country disrupted. Angry Bugti tribesmen fired rockets at gas installations between 7 and 12 January after army personnel allegedly raped female doctor in Sui City. Paramilitary forces reacted by bulldozing houses belonging to tribesmen. Pakistan army decided to set up military base in Sui despite Baloch opposition. Senior Shia leader shot dead in northern city of Gilgit 8 January - ensuing sectarian violence killed 15 before curfew imposed.

• “Pakistan tribals speak out”, BBC, 29 Jan. 2005.
• “New target for Pakistan’s militants”, Asia Times Online, 19 Jan. 2005.
• “Pakistan risks new battlefront”, BBC, 17 Jan. 2005.
• “11 killed in Gilgit violence”, Dawn, 9 Jan. 2005.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Report N°86, Building Judicial Independence in Pakistan, 9 Nov. 2004.

Quetta blast 10 December killed 10; claimed by Baluch Liberation Army (BLA) as targeting army personnel as warning to government against construction of Gwadar port and new military bases. President Pervez Musharraf announced intention to remain as army chief 18 December, reneging on January 2004 deal with Islamist coalition (MMA) to retire by 31 December. Asif Ali Zardari, husband of opposition leader Benazir Bhutto, briefly re-arrested, ostensibly for failing to appear at court hearing, but in fact prevented Islamabad party rally. Violence continued in South Waziristan as local Pashtun politician shot dead 29 December.

• “Still in uniform, but now in a bind as well”, The Economist, 29 Dec. 2004.
• “Court restores bail for Bhutto’s husband”, The Guardian, 22 Dec. 2004.
• “Bomb kills 11, injures 27 in Pakistani city”, Reuters, 10 Dec. 2004.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Report N°86, Building Judicial Independence in Pakistan, 9 Nov. 2004.

Pakistani forces announced end of operations in South Waziristan, claiming to have killed at least 302 al-Qaeda-linked militants, arrested 600. Upper house of parliament passed bill 1 November allowing General Pervez Musharraf to remain as both president and army chief until 2007, to come into effect 31 December. Asif Zardari, husband of former PM Benazir Bhutto, released after 8 years in prison amid speculation he may revitalise opposition Pakistan People's Party and encourage Bhutto return from exile. Cinema blast in North West Frontier Province killed 2 and injured at least 29, while 2 explosions in Balochistan 24/25 November left 1 person dead.

• “Law confirms Musharraf army role”, BBC, 30 Nov. 2004.
• “A bridge too far?”, Dawn, 24 Nov. 2004.
• “Bhutto wants to return to Pakistan”, The Washington Times, 24 Nov. 2004.
• For background, see ICG Asia Report N°84, Pakistan: Reforming the Education Sector, 7 Oct. 2004.

Sectarian violence erupted: at least 75 killed in series of retaliatory attacks following 1 October bombing of Shia mosque in eastern city of Sialkot, killing 30; 40 killed in Multan city 7 October when 2 car bombs targeted meeting of banned radical Sunni group; Sunni cleric shot dead 9 October in Karachi; and Shia mosque in Lahore attacked by suicide bomber 10 October, leaving 4 dead. Military operations continued in South Waziristan tribal region. Attempt to free 2 Chinese engineers held hostage resulted in death of 1 hostage and all 5 kidnappers 15 October, prompting widespread search by security forces for militant leader Abdullah Mehsud, who orchestrated kidnapping. Investigation underway into 28 October Islamabad Marriott hotel explosion that injured 7. 342-member National Assembly (lower house of parliament) passed controversial bill 14 October by simple majority allowing General Pervez Musharraf to remain as both president and head of army until 2007.

• “To shed or not to shed”, Dawn, 26 Oct. 2004.
• “Foreign hands fuel Pakistan's sectarian strife”, Asia Times Online, 15 Oct. 2004.
• “Musharraf five years on”, BBC, 12 Oct. 2004.
• “Pakistan's schisms spill into present”, BBC, 7 Oct. 2004.
• For background, see ICG Asia Report N°77, Devolution in Pakistan: Reform or Regression?, 22 Mar. 2004.

Operations intensified in South Waziristan tribal region where security forces reportedly killed 70 al-Qaeda-linked militants in 9, 13 September attacks; alleged heavy civilian casualties, human rights abuses by army. Security forces killed Amjad Farooqi 26 September, said to have plotted President Pervez Musharraf assassination attempts and involved in killing of U.S. journalist Daniel Pearl. Nation divided over Musharraf’s position as chief of army staff - despite January 2004 deal with Islamist coalition (MMA) to retire by 31 December. Balochistan National Party continued call for protection of rights and withdrawal of army from province; blast in capital Quetta killed 1, 28 September. First meeting between Musharraf and Indian PM Manmohan Singh 24 September.

• “Pakistan's two-pronged terror strategy”, BBC, 27 Sept. 2004.
• “Loyalty in uniform”, Khaleej Times, 27 Sept. 2004.
• “Pakistan army accused of abuses”, BBC, 24 Sept. 2004.
• “BNP warns rulers, army against oppression”, Dawn, 23 Sept. 2004.
• For background, see ICG Asia Reports N°77, Devolution in Pakistan: Reform or Regression?, 22 Mar. 2004; and N°73, Unfulfilled Promises: Pakistan’s Failure to Tackle Extremism, 16 Jan. 2004.

Finance Minister Shaukat Aziz appointed prime minister following resignation of caretaker PM Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain. Balochistan Chief Minister Jam Muhammad Yousuf’s convoy attacked 2 August in Khuzdar, killing 2; claimed by Balochistan Liberation Army in protest against ongoing army operation and construction of new cantonments in province. Further violence in Balochistan killed 7. Military operations continued in South Waziristan tribal region in hunt for al-Qaeda suspects and local supporters. Bombs on rail tracks in Peshawar 25 August and Sindh province 16 August narrowly missed disastrous derailing. President Pervez Musharraf and visiting Afghan President Hamid Karzai vowed 23 August to enhance cooperation in fight against terrorism.

• “The banker, the mullahs and the inscrutable general at the top”, The Economist, 26 Aug. 2004.
• “Pakistani, Afghan leaders vow to fight militants”, RFE/RL, 23 Aug. 2004.
• “Baluchistan: stop the political slide”, News International Pakistan, 5 Aug. 2004.
• For background, see ICG Asia Reports N°77, Devolution in Pakistan: Reform or Regression?, 22 Mar. 2004; and N°73, Unfulfilled Promises: Pakistan’s Failure to Tackle Extremism, 16 Jan. 2004.

Clashes continued in South Waziristan as military hunted al-Qaeda suspects and local supporters; at least 12 killed in separate incidents. Government continued to close South Waziristan Afghan refugee camps, alleged to be militant strongholds. As of 21 July, approximately 25,000 refugees had fled back to Afghanistan. PM nominee Shaukat Aziz survived assassination attempt 30 July; 7 killed. Attack by militants claimed 6 in western province of Baluchistan 31 July. Karachi explosion killed employee of hardline Islamic charity 24 July. Fighting between Solangi and Jagirani tribes 25 July in Khairpur left 8 dead. Bilateral talks and confidence building measures continued with India.

•   “Aziz survives attempt on life; 7 dead: 70 hurt after Fatehjang rally attack”, Dawn, 31 July 2004.
•  “A new round, with hope”, Frontline, 17-30 July 2004. 
•  “Khairpur clashes claim 8 lives”, Dawn, 25 July 2004.
•  “Pakistan and India keep talking”, International Herald Tribune (AFP), 23 July 2004.
•  For background, see ICG Asia Reports N°77, Devolution in Pakistan: Reform or Regression?, 22 Mar. 2004; and N°73, Unfulfilled Promises: Pakistan’s Failure to Tackle Extremism, 16 Jan. 2004.

Pakistan’s PM Zafarullah Khan Jamali resigned 26 June under pressure from President Musharraf and dissolved cabinet. In 2-step succession plan, premiership will pass to outgoing finance minister Shaukat Aziz, after interim period of 45-50 days under leadership of Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain, who heads ruling pro-military Pakistan Muslim League party. Jamali’s removal signifies Musharraf’s desire to improve his government’s domestic image, and to also retain Western support through Aziz’s appointment. Major South Waziristan military operation against al-Qaeda suspects and local supporters left 72 dead, including 17 security officers. Operation launched after foreign militants killed 15 security officers near town of Shakai, 350km west of Islamabad. Pakistan continued tests of nuclear-capable Ghauri ballistic missile 4 June.

• “Jamali resigns, nominates Shujaat as prime minister”, Dawn, 27 June 2004.
• “Pakistani Army must go through the Pashtuns”, Christian Science Monitor, 25 June 2004.
• “NSC vows to crush terrorism, militancy: Musharraf accuses MMA of breaching accord”, Dawn, 25 June 2004.
• Comment by Samina Ahmed and John Norris (ICG) “A ‘moderation’ of freedom, Pakistan’s Pervez Musharraf isn’t practicing what he preaches”, The Washington Post, 15 June 2004.
• For background, see ICG Asia Reports N°77, Devolution in Pakistan: Reform or Regression? 22 Mar. 2004; and N°73, Unfulfilled Promises: Pakistan’s Failure to Tackle Extremism, 16 Jan. 2004.

Sectarian violence resurfaced in Karachi: separate blasts in Shiite mosques killed at least 30, 7 and 31 May; pro-Taliban Sunni cleric, Mufti Nizamuddin Shamzai, shot dead 30 May; ensuing riots killed 3; 5 killed in by-election clashes mainly between armed militants belonging to Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) - key partner in ruling coalition - and opposition Islamic Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA); blast 26 May killed 1, injured 30, 2 days after police arrested 6 members of Harkat-ul Mujahideen al-Alami, group linked to al-Qaeda. Elsewhere, rockets fired at education minister Zobaida Jalal's residence in Quetta. Pakistan readmitted to Commonwealth despite lack of democratic reform - decision justified on grounds of democratic progress, President Musharraf’s peace steps with India. Talks on nuclear confidence-building measures postponed by new Indian government. Pakistan successfully test-fired ballistic missile 29 May capable of carrying nuclear warheads. President Musharraf and new Indian government quick to confirm commitment to peaceful resolution of outstanding issues. Musharraf vowed further action against al-Qaeda in South Waziristan province.

• “Violence at Karachi Shia funerals”, BBC, 1 Jun. 2004.
• “Pakistan's Musharraf talks peace with Sonia Gandhi”, Reuters, 25 May 2004.
• “Pakistan cheers Commonwealth success”, BBC, 22 May 2004.
• Comment by Samina Ahmed (ICG), “Non-proliferation shortcuts don't pay”, The Observer, 12 May 2004.
• For background, see ICG Asia Report N°77, Devolution in Pakistan: Reform or Regression? 22 Mar. 2004

Tribal leaders accused of sheltering al-Qaeda members in Pakistan's South Waziristan province given amnesty. Next day Islamabad released 50 tribesmen who were among 163 militants arrested in March. Foreign militants given 1-week extension on 30 April deadline to 'register'. Controversial bill creating national security council (NSC) and affording military permanent role in Pakistan's governance passed 14 April. Opposition walked out in protest. President Musharraf insisted NSC will be consultative body only.

• "Pakistan extends deadline for al-Qaida", The Guardian, 1 May 2004.
• "Is the India-Pakistan thaw for real?", Daily Times, 27 Apr. 2004.
• "Third time lucky?", The Economist (subscription), 22 Apr. 2004.
• "Five militants pardoned for peaceful life: Aliens asked to surrender by 30^th", Dawn, 24 Apr. 2004.
• For background, see ICG Asia Report N°77, Devolution in Pakistan: Reform or Regression?, 22 Mar. 2004.

Despite precautions, violence erupted on Shiite holy day of Arusha 2 March. Suspected Sunni Muslim extremists attacked Shiites with automatic rifles and grenades in southwestern city of Quetta, killing 44 people, wounding more than 150. Attacks sparked mob violence and rioting. Army ended 12-day offensive in South Waziristan 28 March, after 150 deaths including 60 soldiers. President Musharraf had claimed ‘high-value target’ in area. Operations came as U.S. troops in Afghanistan stepped up hunt along that side of border and coincided with visit of U.S. Sec. State Colin Powell to Islamabad and declaration that Pakistan will be granted ‘major non-NATO ally’ status. Pakistan test fired intermediate-range nuclear-capable ballistic missile 9 March.

• “US panel hears testimony on Khan’s nuke activities”, Reuters AlertNet, 31 Mar. 2004.
• “Scepticism greets Pakistan ‘success’“, BBC, 30 Mar. 2004.
• “Alexander the Great also got in trouble here”, International Herald Tribune, 30 Mar. 2004.
• “Powell says Pakistan ups efforts to crush militants”, Reuters AlertNet, 17 Mar. 2004.
• “The other victims”, The Economist, 4 Mar. 2004.

‘Basic roadmap for peace’ announced by Pakistan and Indian governments 18 February involves series of meetings over 6 months. Nuclear scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan publicly confessed involvement in nuclear proliferation 4 February; pardoned by President Musharraf 5 February. Recipients of nuclear technology claimed to be Iran, Libya and North Korea, but not terrorist groups. After calling for support from Islamic scholars Musharraf commenced military operations 24 February in tribal regions along Afghan border. Eleven suspected militants killed by troops in possible accident 28 February. Leader of banned party Laskhar e Tayyaba addressed audience of 3,000 jihadis in Islamabad. More than 300 mostly Sunni, hardline clerics banned from travelling during month of Muharram in government bid to prevent sectarian violence. Suicide bomber died 28 February in Rawalpindi mosque in attempt to target Shiites gathered for Muharram.

• “Pakistan strikes Al Qaeda haven”, Christian Science Monitor, 25 Feb. 2004.
• “Pakistan: Despite reform plan, few changes seen at most radical madrassahs”, RFE/ RL, 24 Feb. 2004.
• “India, Pakistan pursue peace talks in the slow lane”, Christian Science Monitor, 17 Feb. 2004.
• “Pakistan’s proliferator-in-chief”, The Economist, 5 Feb. 2004.
• For background, see ICG Asia Report N°73, Unfulfilled Promises: Pakistan's Failure to Tackle Extremism, 16 Jan. 2004.

Parliament’s vote of confidence extended President Musharraf’s presidency until end of 2007. Vote followed deal with Islamist coalition (MMA) in exchange for promise to retire as chief of army staff by end of 2004. Musharraf addressed parliament for first time since coup 4 years ago, promised to clamp down on extremism; heckled by opposition lawmakers during speech. Two planes containing some opposition members diverted, preventing members’ attendance at address. Karachi car bomb outside Anglican cathedral 15 January wounded 11. Western intelligence sources said Pakistani scientists traded uranium enrichment technology with North Korea, Libya and Iran. Government admitted nuclear scientists may have been involved in proliferation deals. Officially 9 nuclear scientists detained, causing domestic upheaval as supporters condemned arrests of ‘national heroes’. Dr Qadeer Khan, ‘father of the bomb’, sacked as government scientific advisor 31 January.

• “Pakistan fires 'father of bomb'”, CNN, 31 Jan. 2004.
• Comment by Samina Ahmed (ICG) “Pakistan's unkept promise: The untamed madrasas”, International Herald Tribune , 26 Jan. 2004.
• “Investigation of nuclear 'heroes' divides Pakistan”, Christian Science Monitor, 26 Jan. 2004.
• “Parliamentary chaos in Pakistan”, CNN, 17 Jan. 2004.
• “Dangerous Liaisons”, Newsline Pakistan, 16 Jan. 2004.

Two suicide bombers attacked motorcade of President Pervez Musharraf 25 December in second unsuccessful assassination attempt in under 2 weeks. Pakistani intelligence blamed al Qaeda; security under scrutiny. U.S. security personnel targeted in 7 December rocket attack in Northwest Frontier Province. Commonwealth countries said Pakistan to remain suspended until it undertakes democratic and judicial reforms. Deal between Islamist coalition MMA and Musharraf on Legal Framework Order (LFO), incorporated into constitution as seventeenth amendment, formalises Musharraf’s special powers to sack PM and dissolve parliament.

• “New law extends Musharraf’s powers”, CNN, 30 Dec. 2003.
• “As Musharraf sidelines enemies, his own future is at risk”, International Herald Tribune, 29 Dec. 2003.
• “Pakistan needs reforms to re-enter Commonwealth”, Reuters AlertNet, 6 Dec. 2003.
• For background, see ICG Asia Report N°49, Pakistan: The Mullahs and the Military, 20 Mar. 2003.

Karachi and Quetta appear stabilised after bouts of sectarian violence in recent months. Hunt for militants in northwest continues; dozens of militants rounded up in raids across the country, including hundreds of illegal Afghan immigrants in Quetta, after outlawed organisations regrouped under new names. Groups banned in recent weeks were, for most part, already banned and Lashkar-e-Tayyaba, key Kashmiri militant group, only put under surveillance, raising questions about seriousness of crack-down. U.S. has lauded government’s efforts; Afghanistan says Pakistan should do more.

• “Pakistan Islamists reject ban on militants”, Reuters AlertNet, 18 Nov. 2003.
• Comment by Hussain Haqqani, “In Pakistan, the army is just another party”, Indian Express, 12 Nov. 2003.
• For background, see ICG Asia Report No49, Pakistan: The Mullahs and the Military, 20 Mar. 2003.

Karachi on high alert after September violence and warnings of terrorist attacks. Prominent Sunni leader Maulana Azam Tariq killed by unknown gunmen in Islamabad 6 October. In response angry mobs rioted, torching cinema and destroying property. Violence flared again in Quetta 10-11 October: rocket and grenade attacks killed two. Government carried out three tests between 3-14 Oct of new missile capable of carrying nuclear warhead. Hunt for militants in northwest continues with little success, leading observers to question seriousness. Government began fencing parts of Afghan border 22 October.

• “Heightened security following mob violence”, IRIN, 7 Oct. 2003.
• “Musharraf’s half-hearted crackdown”, The Straits Times, 12 Oct. 2003.
• For background, see ICG Asia Report N°49, Pakistan: The Mullahs and the Military, 20 Mar. 2003.

Several violent incidents in Karachi: seven killed by unknown assailants on 2 September and bombs exploded on 3 September in Sunni seminary and 19 September in office complex. Authorities detained a number of South East Asian students on suspicion of terror links. A tape attributed to Ayman al-Zawahri, Osama Bin Laden’s deputy, called for Pakistanis to overthrow President Musharraf. Kashmir violence undermining chances of normalising relations with India - Pakistani foreign minister cancelled scheduled October visit.

• “Pakistan condemns ‘al Qaeda’ tape”, BBC News, 29 September 2003.
• Amir Zia, “Pakistan arrests four more Indonesian students”, Reuters AlertNet, 23 September 2003.
• “Pakistan minister cancels planned trip to India”, Reuters AlertNet, 17 September 2003.
• “Seven killed in Karachi”, BBC News, 2 September 2003

On August 21, opposition members walked out of parliament’s first sitting since November 2002 in protest over constitutional changes enabling President to sack PM and dissolve parliament. Sectarian violence continues in Quetta: 2 Shia men killed in separate attacks on 16 August. Angry mobs torched cars and destroyed property after one victim’s funeral. Skirmishes continued between Pakistani and Afghan troops across disputed border. Afghan leaders accused Islamabad of doing too little to prevent al-Qaida and Taliban forces regrouping in Pakistan. Pakistan proposed greater intelligence sharing. Three-way commission (Afghanistan, Pakistan and U.S.) investigating border disputes agreed on 14 August to establish hotline between senior military commands.

• “Pakistan urges closer Afghan ties”, BBC News, 22 Aug 2003.
• “More chaos in Pakistan assembly”, BBC News, 21 August 2003.
• “Pakistan Shi’ite torch cars in protest over killings”, Reuters AlertNet, 16 August 2003.
• For background, see ICG Asia Report N°49, Pakistan: The Mullahs and the Military, 20 March 2003