International Crisis Group
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Horn of Africa project

Crisis Group reporting on the Horn of Africa began in 2003. Based in Crisis Group’s regional office in Nairobi and with analysts operating out of several regional states, the Horn of Africa project has since provided consistent reporting and analysis on the protracted crises in Sudan and Somalia, internal and cross-border dynamics in Ethiopia and Eritrea, and the situation in Kenya following the eruption of political violence in December 2007.  

Ethiopia and Eritrea face massive humanitarian challenges, and despite intensive diplomatic efforts by the UN, Germany and the U.S., the issue of demarcation of the shared border remains at an impasse. Following Ethiopia’s refusal to accept virtual demarcation of the border by the now disbanded Ethiopia-Eritrea Boundary Commission (EEBC), Asmara unilaterally imple­men­ted it and in early 2008 forced out the UN peacekeepers (UNMEE), significantly raising the stakes and shattering the status quo. Crisis Group reporting assesses current and potential risks for a new escalation as the impasse drags, putting forward recommendations to key actors geared towards the promotion of dialogue, acceptance of the border, and an end to internal armed insurgencies.

Crisis Group began reporting on Kenya in February 2008 after the outbreak of post-election violence, in which over 1,000 people died and 300,000 were displaced. The formation of a new government of national unity in February 2008 raised hopes for stability. However, strains within the new governing alliance, the unresolved issue of bringing to justice those responsible for election violence, and continued reform failures present ever present risks.    

Since 1991 Somalia has been the archetypal failed state. Successive transitional governments have remained on the brink of collapse, overtaken by an Islamist insurgency that has left the country in a perpetual state of insecurity, despite the presence of an Ethiopian military intervention from December 2006. Over the last few years the situation has deteriorated into one of the world’s worst humanitarian and security crises, with the Ethiopian military campaign, combined with US bombings of suspected militant hide-outs, setting in motion a chain of events that in mid-2008 culminated in the recapture of much of the country's south by the hard-line Islamist insurgent group, Al-Shabaab.

The withdrawal of Ethiopian troops from December 2008 and the election of a new president in Sheik Sharif Sheik Ahmed in January has brought tentative hopes for progress, but fierce fighting in the capital and elsewhere continues. Crisis Group reports in detail on Somalia’s political and security dynamics, urging the new president and the international community to reach out to insurgent groups as a basis for the negotiation of a comprehensive ceasefire and the creation of a political process able to restore legitimacy to government.  

Sudan lingers as one of the world's longest running and most intractable conflicts. With a devastating toll of death and destruction in its wake, the Sudanese civil war has often left a divided international community looking painfully ineffectual as it gropes to push the warring parties toward a meaningful peace process. The crisis in Sudan's western Darfur province has steadily worsened since the rebellion began there in February 2003, with the Khartoum government conducting a scorched earth policy against its citizens that has left 300,000 dead and 2.6-million displaced.

In early 2009 the International Criminal Court’s pre-trial chamber delivered its landmark decision to issue an arrest warrant for Sudan’s long-standing President Omar al-Bashir, for crimes against humanity and war crimes in Darfur. The verdict represents a victory for the conflicts countless victims and offers a rare opportunity to change for the better the political dynamics in Khartoum. The government in response has expelled international aid organisations and pro-ICC sentiment been brutally suppressed, raising the risks of a further humanitarian deterioration. Crisis Group has monitored these developments through regular reports and editorials, focusing attention on the risks of an escalation in the current crisis and calling on the international community to use the levers at its disposal to press Khartoum to commit to a meaningful peace process. 

Visit our Darfur campaign page

لرؤية الصفحة العربية,اضغط هنا.

Our most recent reports and briefings are listed below.  Articles, op-eds, speeches and media releases can be found under the media section.


Recent reports & briefings


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