International Crisis Group
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Ethiopia/Eritrea| Horn of Africa
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Although the bloody border war between Ethiopia and Eritrea (1998-2000) formally ended with the signing of the Algiers agreement, the two Horn of Africa nations remain locked in an apparently intractable stalemate. Ethiopia continues to obstruct implementation of the independent Boundary Commission’s ruling, which awarded the disputed little town of Badme to Eritrea, while the latter considers the continued presence of Ethiopian troops in territory awarded it by the boundary decision to be a violation of its sovereignty.

In late 2005, frustrated by the reluctance of the international community to sufficiently pressure Ethiopia to accept the border ruling, Eritrea restricted the operations of UN peacekeepers (UNMEE) along its border with Ethiopia and expelled UNMEE staff from selected countries in defiance of successive UN Security Council resolutions. Unable to carry out its mandated task, the UN Security Council terminated the UNMEE mission in 2008.

Ethiopia for its part prevented the Boundary Commission from physically demarcating the boundary (with pillars). Unable to complete its mandate, the Boundary Commission dissolved itself in 2007, after providing a “demarcation by coordinates.” Its disappearance removed an important forum where, even if they disagreed, the parties were able to ex-change views regularly before a third-party arbiter.

At present, Ethiopia and Eritrea have had no incentive to resolve the frozen border conflict. Indeed, both regimes have used it as an excuse to enhance their domestic power at the expense of democracy and economic growth, thus reducing the attractiveness to them of diplomatic compromise. They support the other’s domestic rebels, and each is convinced that the fall of the other’s regime is imminent and the only real solution to the border dispute. At the same time, the key international actors have allowed this situation to remain frozen.

Furthermore, this bilateral dispute also has significant regional implications. During the Ethiopia-Eritrea War, Somalia became a proxy battlefield, with both Eritrea and Ethiopia supporting different armed groups.  This has significantly increased the incidence and severity of fighting in Somalia. Since the end of the war, Eritrea has periodically provided assistance to anti-Ethiopian-government groups in Somalia and the Ogaden region of Ethiopia to put pressure on Ethiopia to stop blocking implementation of the Boundary Commission ruling. Ethiopia has countered by aiding its allies in Somalia.

Ethiopian involvement culminated in an ill-advised invasion of Somalia in support of the Transitional Federal Government (TFG), which was losing the war against the Eritrean-supported Islamic Courts Union. Ethiopian forces quickly defeated the Islamic Courts Union, but the intervention triggered a popular insurgency led by the Islamist Al Shabaab (supported in part by Eritrea).  Ethiopia eventually withdrew its forces in January 2009, but Al Shabaab and its allies continue to battle the TFG.  As of July 2009, Al-Shabaab and its allied control most of south and central Somalia, while the TFG forces control only small pockets of Mogadishu, the Somali capital.

Crisis Group’s Nairobi-based team reports and recommends policy on the situation between Ethiopia and Eritrea.

Our reports on Ethiopia/Eritrea are listed below, starting with the most recent. You can also search for relevant reports using the search box in the top right hand side of this page.

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Recent reports & briefings