International Crisis Group
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South Asia

In a state of effective war for most of the last quarter-century, Afghanistan was a Cold War battleground before a fratricidal civil war was allowed to fester for much of the 1990s. With the extremist Taliban in power it played host to al-Qaeda. However, having refused to give up al-Qaeda leaders, the regime was quickly removed in late 2001 by U.S.-led Coalition forces. Following the political roadmap laid out in the December 2001 Bonn Agreement, the country has since seen the ratification of a new moderate Islamic Constitution and the election of a president and National Assembly. However, the ultimate goal of a stable, sustainable state remains delicately poised. The south and eastern regions bordering Pakistan see an ongoing insurgency while a policy of cooption has seen warlords and the powerbrokers of past eras entrenched. Opium production has exploded. While a fledgling Afghan National Army is gaining confidence, police and judicial reform remain neglected. Exacerbated by security problems, developmental progress has been painfully slow. The organisation of presidential elections planned for September 2009 and parliamentary polls due in 2010 presents a significant challenge for the government and its international partners, particularly given worsening security conditions.

Pakistan's prospects have become entwined with those of Afghanistan. The country has experienced three decades of corruption, drugs, military rule, rising Islamist extremism and a general decline in education and health standards. It has seen a continuing conflict with India over Kashmir, which has the potential to escalate into a nuclear war. After eight years of military rule, the country returned to civilian control after former army chief President Musharraf resigned in August 2008. A shaky coalition government led by PPP Prime Minister Gilani struggled to hold together after largely credible February 2008 parliamentary polls, but collapsed just after Musharraf’s resignation, leaving a minority government ill-equipped to push through pressing legal and economic reforms.

Relations between India and Pakistan, which had improved considerably as part of the normalization process launched regarding Kashmir, were put into jeopardy following the November 2008 attacks on Mumbai by militants with alleged links to Pakistan. A resumption of conflict remains a real possibility, and both sides will have to work together to rebuild some of the confidence lost.

In Nepal, elections in April 2008 to form a Constituent Assembly (CA), tasked with drafting a new constitution, saw the Maoists take the largest share of seats. They formed a coalition government in August 2008, now faced with significant remaining challenges, including how to manage the work of the CA as well as pressing needs for broad-based security sector reform.

2008 also saw largely peaceful elections in Bangladesh, bringing to an end two years of military rule. A civilian government was sworn in at the beginning of 2009, after handover from a military-backed caretaker government that assumed power after the suspension of January 2007 polls amid weeks of violent protests.

Sri Lanka saw a marked escalation in conflict in 2008, as the government stepped up its military offensive against the militant organisation, the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). The offensive saw increasing geographic gains towards the end of the year, as government forces captured the de facto LTTE capital of Killinochchi. For any sustainable peace to be achieved, however, the Sri Lankan government must work towards a political solution to Tamil grievances and commit to implementing planned devolutions that protect the interests and rights of all.

Our South Asia reports are listed below, starting with the most recent. You can also find reports on specific South Asian countries by clicking on the relevant country box on the right. You can search for relevant reports using the search box in the top right hand side of this page. Several of our reports have also been translated into Dari, Nepali, Pashtu and Sinhala, you can access those here.

Articles, op-eds, speeches and media releases can be found under the media section.


Recent reports & briefings


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