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Security in Afghanistan

In a state of effective war for most of the last quarter-century, Afghanistan was a Cold War battleground before a fratricidal civil war was allowed to fester for much of the 1990s. With the extremist Taliban in power it played host to al-Qaeda. However, having refused to give up al-Qaeda leaders, the regime was quickly removed in late 2001 by U.S.-led Coalition forces.

Following the political roadmap laid out in Bonn, the country has since seen the ratification of a new moderate Islamic Constitution and the election of a president and National Assembly. However, the ultimate goal of a stable, sustainable state is increasingly vulnerable, as Afghanistan has developed few resilient institutions since the 2001 invasion, and the insurgency has intensified significantly during 2008 and 2009. The Taliban holds sway over much of the countryside in the south, east and centre of Afghanistan, and carry out terror attacks in major population centres. 2009 has already seen the highest number of civilian and ISAF troop casualties since 2001, despite the large build-up in troops effected over the summer.

The August 2009 presidential and provincial elections have opened up a new period of political turmoil. The polls were declared “successful” by both the U.S. and Afghan governments, despite the high levels of Taliban violence that preceded them, and the claims of fraud that have followed. A month after election day there is still confusion as to the outcome. According to the preliminary tally President Karzai won 54.6 per cent of the vote, but a large portion of the votes cast could be subject to recount and audit for possible fraud. If Karzai’s share drops below 50 per cent, he would be forced into a runoff against his closest challenger and ex-Foreign Minister Abdullah Abdulah. The recount process and possible runoff could mean months of continued instability and violence.

The Afghan National Army (ANA) has been the recipient of a comprehensive reform program but is still a fledgling force. However police and judicial reform remain neglected and district authorities often a source of, rather than succour from, fear for the local population. Training the ANA must be a core role for the new troops deployed over the summer of 2009. Likewise, strengthening the Afghan National Police (ANP) is vital, as policing is one of the most effective - and also the most ill-used - tools available to tackle extremism. The ANP has thus far been used as an auxiliary force to the ANA rather than in policing functions, and the lack of a clearly defined role and sheer lack of personnel has led to significant police failures. Rule of law also means addressing the opium problem – cultivation has increased steadily since 2001, and Afghanistan today accounts for 82 per cent of the world’s production.

A policy of co-option has seen warlords and the powerbrokers of past eras entrenched in positions of power despite being widely discredited in previous eras. Exacerbated by security problems developmental progress has been painfully slow with Afghanistan having some of the lowest social indicators in the world.

Our Afghanistan reports are listed below, starting with the most recent. You can also search for relevant reports using the search box in the top right hand side of this page.

 Crisis Group Podcast: "Afghanistan's Post-election Challenges" (25 November 2009)

The Executive Summary and Recommendations of recent reports, translated into Dari, can be viewed here.

Articles, op-eds, speeches and media releases can be found under the media section.

Click here for a more detailed history of the country/conflict.

  Visit our Afghanistan advocacy page

Recent articles/op-eds/interviews & speeches


Recent reports & briefings


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