International Crisis Group
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North East Asia

North Korea's efforts to develop nuclear weapons have presented North East Asia, the United States and indeed the whole international community with an extraordinarily serious security challenge. In 2003 North Korea became the first country to pull out of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Diplomacy and limited engagement have been the primary tools used to deal with North Korea to date but success has been limited. Alternative policy options are isolation and containment and a military strike.

North Korea's precipitous internal situation compounds the international threat of a nuclear North Korea. Economic or political collapse would place a heavily militarised failed state on the border of China and South Korea. An outflow of millions of refugees into China would destabilise this important economic region and be met with sharp resistance. South Korea's fast developing but relatively weak economy is entirely unprepared for the huge costs of reconstruction and integration.

Crisis Group opened an office in Seoul, South Korea, in 2004 to provide timely analysis of the regional dynamics affecting multilateral negotiations over North Korea's nuclear program. In conjunction with Crisis Group Washington and Crisis Group Moscow the project assesses previous attempts at negotiating with North Korea and proposes policies aimed at achieving a successful outcome to the six-party talks. The project is also examining attempts to reform North Korea's economy and reporting on prospects for managing the economic, social and political strains of reunification.

The Seoul office also monitors tensions in the Taiwan Strait. In April 2002, Crisis Group began a series of studies on emerging influences on the prospects for renewed confrontation in the Taiwan Strait. There have been important signs of detente but no resolution of the underlying disagreement between China and Taiwan. Regular reports of improvements in military readiness in the Taiwan Strait have provided some cause for concern but there are powerful constraints on any resort to lethal force. This Crisis Group project, like all others, pays considerable attention to the domestic political and institutional influences shaping the positions of the key actors.

Our North East Asia reports are listed below, starting with the most recent. You can also find reports on specific South Asian countries by clicking on the relevant country box on the right. You can search for relevant reports using the search box in the top right hand side of this page.


Recent reports & briefings


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