International Crisis Group
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Syria | Arab-Israeli Conflict
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Recent reports and briefings

Following the independence from France in 1946, Syria experienced a tumultuous period of military coups. The country was first stabilised in 1970 when Defence Minister Hafez al-Assad seized power through a bloodless coup, establishing a military rule that would last for more than three decades. Upon the president’s death in 2000, a time of increasing turmoil, he was succeeded by his son, Bashar al-Assad. With the breakdown of the Oslo peace process that same year, and the second Intifada gathering full force, the new president faced severe challenges even before the September 11 attacks and the ensuing war on terror. In the wake of 9/11, U.S. pressure on Syria mounted due to, among other things, its support for groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah.

Damascus-Washington relations had been strained for some time with Syria on the U.S. list of state sponsors of terrorism since its inception in 1979, but following the U.S. invasion of Iraq relations deteriorated further. Syrian fears of becoming the next target of an American invasion led Damascus to facilitate foreign fighters’ travel into Iraq from Syria, drawing the ire of the U.S.

Around the same time, Syria’s continuous meddling in Lebanese affairs - another matter of contention with the US - reached its tipping point in 2004. Damascus used its considerable influence in Lebanon to extend the pro-Syrian Lebanese president Emil Lahoud’s term, prompting France and the US to co-author UN resolution 1559 calling for “all remaining foreign forces to withdraw from Lebanon”. After a 29-year-long presence, Damascus withdrew its 15,000 troops from Lebanon when massive anti-Syria protests erupted in Lebanon following the assassination of the former prime minister, Rafiq al-Hariri, on February 14th 2005. Although the ongoing international investigation has yet to implicate a culprit, Syria has been widely blamed for the massive car bomb that killed Hariri and 22 others. Several international and regional players froze relations with Syria and the U.S. recalled its ambassador.

In 2008, Syria’s isolation was gradually broken as indirect talks between Israel and Syria, mediated by Turkey, were announced and a Qatar brokered deal in Lebanon was reached. Shortly after, French president Nicolas Sarkozy invited president Assad to participate in the Euro-Mediterranean summit in Paris, spurring a growing stream of diplomatic visits to Damascus. The new American president, Barack Obama, declared his intention of initiating dialogue with Damascus.

Syria’s regained international standing remains far from solidified however, and Damascus’ future relations depend to a large extent on enduring stability in Lebanon, as well as the strategies to be adopted by the new American and Israeli governments.

Crisis Group follows developments in Syria from its Damascus office. Recent reports have focused on US-Syrian, French-Syrian relations, the parameters of a Syrian-Israeli peace deal, as well as the consequences of Syria’s withdrawal from Lebanon.

Many of these reports have been translated into Arabic. To see these reports, click here.

Articles, op-eds, speeches and media releases can be found under the media section.

 


Recent reports & briefings