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The parliamentary election in June 2009 surprised many as the March 14 alliance captured 71 seats to opposition 57 amid predictions of a near-draw. The decisive election victory has so far failed to end the political stalemate, however, and efforts to form a government are still ongoing. After several rounds of negotiations, the Hizbollah-led opposition and March 14 have managed to agree on a power-sharing formula of 15-10-5 (which would give March 14 15 seats, the opposition ten cabinet posts, just short of the blocking third, and the president five) but the distribution of portfolios has yet to be decided.

In May 2008, a long political crisis climaxed degenerating into an armed conflict. On the 7th of this month, Hizbollah turned its weapons inwards for the first time, launching a military operation against Sunni opponents, taking over West Beirut. The assault was prompted by the government’s decision to reassign the pro-Hizbollah Beirut airport security chief and investigate the group’s independent telephone network. Fighting spread to Tripoli and the Chouf Mountains, leaving scores dead. The government subsequently reversed its decision and Qatari mediation halted the deteriorating situation. The Doha accord resulted in Michel Suleiman as president, a national unity cabinet giving Hizbollah a “blocking third”, and new rules for the 2009 parliamentary election based on smaller districts. The issue of Hizbollah’s arms was to be addressed by the new president.

A devastating 33-day war in July-August 2006, which followed the kidnapping of two Israeli soldiers by Hizbollah forces, highlighted the explosive nature of tensions along Lebanon’s southern border. The 2006 war also demonstrated the increased military strength of Hizbollah. Israel had withdrawn from southern Lebanon in 2000 but continues to occupy the contested Shebaa Farms territory. Despite the withdrawal of Syrian military forces (who first entered Lebanon during the civil war in 1976 and had remained there after war ended in 1989) following the assassination of former Prime Minister Hariri in February 2005, Syria continues to influence the internal situation through Lebanese allies.

In the aftermath of the 2006 war, Hizbollah and its allies sought to capitalize domestically on their self-proclaimed victory and demanded a “blocking third” of the cabinet posts. Tension escalated further when the ruling coalition insisted on a formal UN investigation into the Hariri assassination, leading to the resignation of several Hizbollah-aligned ministers in November that year, practically incapacitating the government as the two-thirds quorum was impossible. In an attempt to bring down the government, opposition supporters staged massive sit-ins that would paralyse down-town Beirut for the next 18 months. The underlying issues fuelling the crisis – the status of Hizbollah’s weapons, the Sunni-Shiite split, an intra-Christian competition and differing views of Lebanon’s identity and foreign alliances – were brought to the fore.

Attention temporarily shifted away from the political bickering when fighting erupted between the Lebanese army and the militant group Fatah al-Islam in Nahr al-Bared refugee camp north of Tripoli in May 2007. The military reported over 200 killed in the three-month long clashes, including 120 soldiers. When President Lahoud’s term expired on 23 November 2007, political squabbling continued over a consensus candidate, a new electoral law and the make-up of the national unity government. Continued postponement of presidential vote left the post vacant for several months.

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Recent reports & briefings