International Crisis Group
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Nuclear Impasses

North Korea's efforts to develop nuclear weapons have presented North East Asia, the United States and indeed the whole international community with an extraordinarily serious security challenge. In 2003 it became the first country to pull out of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Diplomacy and limited engagement have been the primary tools used to deal with North Korea to date but success has been limited. Alternative policy options are isolation and containment and a military strike.

North Korea's precipitous internal situation compounds the international threat of a nuclear North Korea. Economic or political collapse would place a heavily militarised failed state on the border of China and South Korea. An outflow of millions of refugees into China would destabilise this important economic region and be met with sharp resistance. South Korea's fast developing but relatively weak economy is entirely unprepared for the huge costs of reconstruction and integration.

Crisis Group opened an office in Seoul, South Korea, in 2004 to provide timely analysis of the regional dynamics affecting multilateral negotiations over North Korea's nuclear program. In conjunction with Crisis Group Washington and Crisis Group Moscow the project assesses previous attempts at negotiating with North Korea and proposes policies aimed at achieving a successful outcome to the six-party talks. The project is also examining attempts to reform North Korea's economy and reporting on prospects for managing the economic, social and political strains of reunification.

Articles, op-eds, speeches and media releases can be found under the media section.

Media release: Crisis Group President Co-Chairs New International Commission on Nuclear Non-proliferation and Disarmament, 26 September 2008

"Foreword" by Gareth Evans, President, International Crisis Group, to North Korea on the Brink: Struggle for Survival, by Glyn Ford with Soyoung Kwon.

Nuclear Impasses Visit our Nuclear Impasses advocacy page


Recent reports & briefings