Terrorists struck again in Bali in 2005, with all-too-familiar scenes of death, panic, and grim-faced officials vowing to find the perpetrators. It is not clear who is behind the 1 October suicide bombings. Suspicion will immediately fall on the terrorist organisation Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) – perpetrators of the previous Bali bombings in 2002. But in the years since those bombings JI has become weaker, its administrative structure, its finances, and its logistics all seriously damaged.
However, the two individuals behind the bombing of the Marriott Hotel in Jakarta in August 2003, Azhari Husin and Noordin Mohamed Top, are at large. Both have associations with JI. Noordin and Azhari can draw on a complex web of personal contacts in addition to, or instead of, their contacts inside JI; even if JI closed up shop tomorrow, the terrorism problem would not go away - of those detained in Indonesia for terrorist activities, only about half are JI members; the rest belong to other jihadist groups.
Crisis Group’s reporting on terrorism and jihadism in Indonesia can be found below:
Further Crisis Group reporting on international terrorism can be found here
For a month by month report on the conflict developments in Indonesia since September 2003, see Crisis Group's CrisisWatch database.
Head of State: Pres. Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, Oct. 2004 –
Formerly Dutch East Indies, Indonesia declared independence 1945 and achieved it four years later after protracted guerrilla war. Experience of shared colonial history and war, and adoption years earlier by Indonesia’s nationalist movement of single lingua franca, bahasa Indonesia, have been two most important factors holding archipelago of some 13,000 islands and over 250 ethnic groups together.
Indonesia’s first decade was marked by the rise and fall of parliamentary democracy (first free election held 1955; second held 1999); outbreak of regional rebellions Sumatra, Sulawesi, and West Java, most of which claimed to be struggling for Islamic state, though local grievances were paramount; rise of Indonesian military and Indonesian Communist Party (PKI) as powerful political institutions; and dominance of Indonesia's first president, Sukarno.
Early 1960s Sukarno tried to maintain increasingly precarious political balance between PKI, which had grown to become third largest Communist Party in world outside Soviet Union and China, and military. 30 September 1965, group of revolutionary junior officers backed by some members of PKI, murdered six generals and announced they had taken power to forestall army coup. Major-General Soeharto, who some claim had prior knowledge of coup attempt, rallied army. Over next six months, Soeharto engineered transfer of power from Sukarno to himself and encouraged purge of PKI leaving as many as half a million dead. Worst killings took place East Java, where army encouraged local Muslim youth groups to take revenge for PKI’s efforts to unilaterally seize and redistribute land, and in Bali and Aceh.
There is widespread myth ethnic Chinese bore brunt of killings. While true that Soeharto accused People’s Republic of China of backing “fifth column” of Indonesian Chinese, ethnic Chinese probably do not account for more than 2,000 of hundreds of thousands killed. Most were ethnic Javanese and Balinese.
30 September coup attempt and aftermath marked beginning of Soeharto’s “New Order” government though he did not formally become president until 1967. His authoritarian government bears responsibility for most of Indonesia’s conflicts, but seeds were planted earlier. Soeharto years came to violent end May 1998, after Asian financial crisis added to growing dissatisfaction with his rule and his family’s corruption. Vice-president, B.J. Habibie, succeeded Soeharto. Habibie’s decision to allow East Timor referendum, and consequences of that decision (see Timor-Leste) ended his presidency October 1999. Muslim cleric and intellectual Abdurrahman Wahid became president, only to be impeached after disastrous presidency July 2001. Megawati Sukarnoputri, Sukarno’s daughter, took over until country’s first direct presidential elections in 2004, won by Gen. (ret.) Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono with 61 per cent of vote.
The December 2004 tsunami killed well over 200,000 Indonesians. The tragedy also helped to kickstart the negotiations process that eventually led to the signing of a peace agreement between the Free Aceh rebels (GAM) and the Indonesian government in the conflict on Aceh, the most heavily affected part of the country.
Following major conflicts confront Indonesia:
Papua (successively known as West New Guinea, West Irian, West Papua, Irian Jaya, and Papua): Sukarno’s failure to gain control of Dutch-controlled western half of island of New Guinea at independence made its recovery top domestic and foreign policy priority. Indonesian troops sent there 1961, and, with help of Kennedy administration in U.S., Dutch were pressured to turn territory over to UN 1963. U.N. administered vote on self-determination, called Act of Free Choice, conducted 1969 among just over 1,000 representatives hand-picked by Indonesia under flagrant intimidation by security forces. Vote was unanimously in support of integration with Indonesia. Small, poorly armed guerrilla group, called Free Papua Movement or OPM, has been fighting for independence ever since, but much larger part of population supports non-violent efforts to get same result. Special autonomy package for Papua, passed by Indonesian parliament 2001, was undercut by decision of Megawati government January 2003 to divide Papua into three provinces – Papua, Central Irian Jaya, and West Irian Jaya -- as way of weakening support for independence. Slow implementation of the Special Autonomy plan led to some tensions in 2004 and 2005, and was accompanied by an increasing military presence.
Aceh: Former sultanate on northern tip of Sumatra held out against Dutch longer than any other part of what became Indonesia. Its leaders demanded recognition of special status from newly independent government, and when they failed to get it, armed rebellion called Darul Islam broke out 1953. Defeated in early 1960s, some former members formed pro-independence Free Aceh Movement (Gerakan Aceh Merdeka or GAM) 1976, citing range of political and economic grievances. Low-intensity guerrilla war ensued, under direction of leadership of Acehnese exile Hasan di Tiro, based in Sweden. Soeharto government launched massive counterinsurgency offensive 1990 after number of Libyan-trained GAM guerrillas began series of attacks on police posts, transmigrant camps and other places. Abuses committed by army between 1990-1998 left lasting scars, and demands by Acehnese for justice after Soeharto fell went unheeded. GAM took advantage of anger, new political openness, and demands for East Timor-style referendum, to rebuild. Violence escalated 1999-2000, halted temporarily by negotiations between GAM and government of Abdurrahman Wahid, brokered by Geneva-based Henri Dunant Centre. Talks broke down shortly after Cessation of Hostilities Agreement signed December 2002. 19 May 2003, Megawati government declared military emergency, downgraded to civilian emergency May 2004. The December 2004 tsunami caused tens of thousands of deaths in Aceh, opened up the conflict zone to outside aid bodies and caused GAM to issue a unilateral ceasefire. Helsinki peace talks mediated by Crisis Management Initiative, an NGO led by former Finnish President Martti Ahtisaari, led to the signing of a historic peace agreement betwene GAM and the government in August 2005.
Ambon and Moluccas: Southern part of Moluccan archipelago, capital Ambon, was one of few areas of Dutch East Indies to prefer Dutch control; some leaders proclaimed Republic of South Moluccas (RMS) 1950 rather than submit to control from Jakarta. RMS movement was largely but not exclusively Christian in area almost equally divided between Christians and Muslims. It was defeated November 1950 after brief but bloody war; estimated 12,000 Ambonese families fled to Netherlands. Only vestige of RMS thereafter was raising of RMS flag every 25 April by die-hard RMS sympathizers who would then all be arrested. Communal relations outwardly peaceful until just after Soeharto fell. However, 19 January 1999, minor brawl at end of Muslim fasting month erupted into full-scale war between Christians and Muslims. By early 2002, when peace agreement was signed, as many as 5,000 people had been killed and hundreds of thousands displaced.
Several root causes of conflict: changes in demographic balance of area during the New Order with in-migration of Muslims from elsewhere in Indonesia, displacement of traditionally Christian elite from top political jobs, weakening of traditional sources of authority, distrust between communities because of previous outbreaks elsewhere in Indonesia, some deliberately provoked, and incompetence and bias on part of security forces tasked with ending violence. To this lethal mix was added arrival of outside Muslim militias in form of Laskar Jihad, apparently supported by Indonesian army, and much smaller group of fighters linked to terrorist group Jemaah Islamiyah (JI). JI justified much of its subsequent bombings as retaliation for deaths of Muslims in Ambon. Fragility of 2002 peace indicated by April 2004 outbreak of violence, triggered by actions of RMS clone known as Front for Moluccan Sovereignty (FKM).
Darul Islam and Jemaah Islamiyah: Darul Islam (DI) rebellion broke out West Java 1949. DI became core of movement that led to birth of Jemaah Islamiyah terrorist organisation. DI movement called for Islamic State of Indonesia (Negara Islam Indonesia or NII). By mid-1950s, it was joined by two other Darul Islam movements, in Aceh and South Sulawesi. All three were defeated by Indonesian army, only to be revived mid-1970s with help of Indonesian intelligence. Abdullah Sungkar and Abu Bakar Ba’asyir joined DI at this time in reaction to Soeharto’s repression of political Islam. They were arrested 1979, released 1982, and fled to Malaysia 1985 where they developed community of Indonesian exiles, many of them DI members. Sungkar helped organise recruitment of DI members to Afghanistan in 1980s to fight Soviet Union; these men, including Hambali, became leaders of JI when Sungkar broke with DI in 1992-93. Combination of Darul Islam’s determination to establish Islamic state and salafi jihadi ideology of their Afghan mentors helped produce terrorist organisation. Final factor was al-Qaeda’s 1998 fatwa urging attacks on U.S. and allies. As situation in Ambon, North Maluku, and Poso deteriorated 1999-2001, JI and other jihadist groups, most of them splinters of DI movements in West Java and Sulawesi, were able to recruit and train new members, including suicide bombers. By 2005, this network was responsible for well over 270 deaths, including 2000 Christmas Eve bombings, October 2002 Bali bomb, August 2003 Marriott bomb, September 2004 bomb in front of Australian embassy in Jakarta, and October 2005 suicide bombs in Jimbaran and Kuti (on Bali island).
Other ethnic and communal conflicts: Other post-Soeharto conflicts have erupted in West and Central Kalimantan between ethnic Dayaks and Madurese, migrant group who Dayaks see as having dispossessed them of land and economic opportunities. Combined death toll in Kalimantan outbreaks since 1999 is well over 1,000 and number of displaced close to 100,000. Violence Poso, Central Sulawesi reached peak mid-2000 after massacre of Muslims by Christians; isolated incidents continue, in part because of revenge killings by radical Muslim groups. In handful of areas across Indonesia, major decentralization program has exacerbated existing tensions by creating new districts drawn along ethnic or communal lines. Also, government’s failure to address problem of displaced effectively is laying groundwork for future violence.
updated 3 October 2005