CrisisWatch N°29, 2 January 2006

Eleven conflict situations around the world deteriorated in December 2005, according to the new issue of CrisisWatch,* released today. A surge of violence in Sri Lanka raised fears of a return to full-scale civil war. Internal divisions within the ruling Fatah party helped hardline Hamas win major West Bank cities in municipal elections casting a shadow over the scheduled January general election. Nuclear negotiations with North Korea returned to stalemate after five months of apparent progress. In Colombia, despite an optimistic start to government talks with leftist ELN rebels, the Revolutionary Armed Forced of Colombia (FARC) killed 37 in two of the worst attacks in years against security forces. In Egypt, the final round of parliamentary elections was marred by arrests, obstruction and violence as 12 were killed in the 7 December run-off vote. And in China police killed up to 20 rural protesters demonstrating against land seizures for state projects. The situations also deteriorated in Bangladesh, Chad, Lebanon, Pakistan and Peru.

Four conflict situations improved in December 2005. The Democratic Republic of Congo held its first democratic vote in four decades as an overwhelming majority of the population approved a draft constitution. In Afghanistan, the first elected parliament in 30 years was inaugurated by President Karzai. Bolivia saw the election of its first indigenous head of state in a free and fair poll. And in Côte d’Ivoire, after months of political deadlock, all parties accepted Charles Konan Banny as interim prime minister.

For January 2006, CrisisWatch identifies Ethiopia/Eritrea, Nepal and Sri Lanka as Conflict Risk Alerts, or situations at particular risk of new or significantly escalated conflict in the coming month. No new Conflict Resolution Opportunities are identified for January.

TRENDS AND WATCHLIST SUMMARY

DECEMBER 2005 TRENDS

Deteriorated Situations
Bangladesh, Chad, China (internal), Colombia, Egypt, Israel/Occupied Territories, Lebanon, North Korea, Pakistan, Peru, Sri Lanka

Improved Situations
Afghanistan, Bolivia, Côte d’Ivoire, DR Congo

Unchanged Situations
Albania, Algeria, Angola, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Basque Country (Spain), Belarus, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Burundi, Central African Republic, Chechnya (Russia), Croatia, Cyprus, Ecuador, Ethiopia, Ethiopia/Eritrea, Gabon, Georgia, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Haiti, India (non-Kashmir), Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kashmir, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kosovo, Kyrgyzstan, Liberia, Macedonia, Mauritania, Moldova, Myanmar/Burma, Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan), Nepal, Nigeria, North Caucasus (Russia), Northern Ireland (UK), Philippines, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Serbia & Montenegro, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Somaliland (Somalia), Sudan, Swaziland, Syria, Taiwan Strait, Tajikistan, Tanzania, Thailand, Togo, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Uganda, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Venezuela, Western Sahara, Yemen, Zimbabwe

JANUARY 2006 WATCHLIST

Conflict Risk Alert
Ethiopia/Eritrea, Nepal, Sri Lanka

Conflict Resolution Opportunity
None

* NOTE: CrisisWatch indicators - up and down arrows, conflict risk alerts, and conflict resolution opportunities - are intended to reflect changes within countries or situations from month to month, not comparisons between countries. For example, no "conflict risk alert" is given for a country where violence has been occurring and is expected to continue in the coming month: such an indicator is given only where new or significantly escalated violence is feared.

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