CrisisWatch N°35, 1 July 2006

Thirteen actual or potential conflict situations around the world deteriorated in June 2006, according to the new issue of CrisisWatch,* released today.

Tensions and violence escalated in Israel/Occupied Territories as the Israeli military launched operations into Gaza following the kidnapping of an Israeli soldier by Palestinian militants. In Sudan, implementation of the Darfur Peace Agreement faltered as rebel divisions widened. Insecurity along the border between Chad and Sudan increased as government forces and Chadian rebels renewed fighting. Efforts to resolve the border dispute between Ethiopia and Eritrea were dealt a setback when Eritrea refused to attend a meeting of the International Boundary Commission in The Hague. For North Korea, U.S. intelligence reports suggesting Pyongyang is preparing to test intercontinental ballistic missiles caused widespread alarm. And in Macedonia the campaign for the 5 July general election was marred by violence. The situation also deteriorated in Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Guinea, Morocco, North Caucasus (non-Chechnya), Senegal and Somalia.

Four situations showed improvement in June 2006. Liberia continued to show positive signs of stabilisation. In Mali, the government announced a peace deal with the Tuareg rebels. Peru’s presidential poll on 4 June was deemed free and fair by the EU and the OAS, and in Mauritania, the population overwhelmingly approved constitutional amendments paving the way for the 2007 presidential election.

For July 2006, CrisisWatch identifies Somalia, Sri Lanka and Israel/Occupied Territories as Conflict Risk Alerts, or situations at particular risk of new or significantly escalated conflict in the coming month.

TRENDS AND WATCHLIST SUMMARY

JUNE 2006 TRENDS

Deteriorated Situations
Afghanistan, Chad, Ethiopia, Ethiopia/Eritrea, Guinea, Israel/Occupied Territories, Macedonia, Morocco, North Caucasus (non-Chechnya), North Korea, Senegal, Somalia, Sudan

Improved Situations
Liberia, Mali, Mauritania, Peru

Unchanged Situations
Albania, Algeria, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Basque Country (Spain), Belarus, Bolivia, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Burundi, Central African Republic, China (internal), Chechnya (Russia), Colombia, Côte d’Ivoire, Cyprus, DR Congo, Egypt, Fiji, Georgia, Haiti, India (non-Kashmir), Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kashmir, Kazakhstan, Kosovo, Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, Moldova, Montenegro, Myanmar/Burma, Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan), Nepal, Nigeria, Northern Ireland (UK), Pakistan, Philippines, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Serbia, Sierra Leone, Solomon Islands, Somaliland (Somalia), Sri Lanka, Syria, Taiwan Strait, Tajikistan, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Uganda, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Venezuela, Western Sahara, Yemen, Zimbabwe

JULY 2006 WATCHLIST

Conflict Risk Alerts
Israel/Occupied Territories, Somalia, Sri Lanka

* NOTE: CrisisWatch indicators - up and down arrows, conflict risk alerts, and conflict resolution opportunities - are intended to reflect changes within countries or situations from month to month, not comparisons between countries. For example, no "conflict risk alert" is given for a country where violence has been occurring and is expected to continue in the coming month: such an indicator is given only where new or significantly escalated violence is feared.

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