International Crisis Group
text only version

updated September 2009

Crisis Group reporting focuses on many different aspects of the Arab-Israeli conflict, including both internal and external developments involving key regional actors – Israel, the Occupied Territories, Lebanon and Syria – and also Hizbollah. For our most recent report analysing broader aspects of the Arab-Israeli conflict, see Hizbollah and the Lebanese Crisis, 10 October 2007.

This page concentrates on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, also giving information about two major advocacy initiatives launched by the International Crisis Group since 2002.

Latest reporting

Click here for a summary of Crisis Group's latest report on the Arab-Israeli Conflict, Israel’s Religious Right and the Question of Settlements (20 July 2009).

Gaza's Unfinished Business (23 April 2009) examines the situation in Gaza three months after the December 2008/January 2009 Israel-Hamas war. If the underlying factors that precipitated the Gaza war are not addressed, Hamas and Israel could soon find themselves on the edge of another explosion.Defusing this crisis requires a sustainable Israel-Hamas ceasefire, Gaza’s reconstruction and Palestinian reconciliation. The war galvanised the world’s attention, but three months later, urgency has given way to complacency and complacency to neglect.  Click here to access the full report.

Ending the War in Gaza (5 January 2009), released at the height of the Gaza crisis, calls on urgent international action to deliver an immediate ceasefire to protect civilians, limit political damage and avoid a further catastrophe. Click here to access the full report.

Latest advocacy: Letter to U.S. President George W. Bush and U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice on the November 2007 Middle East peace conference. This letter on the Middle East peace conference scheduled for Annapolis, Maryland in late November, was addressed by its signatories to President George W. Bush and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. The statement is a joint initiative of the U.S./Middle East Project, Inc., the International Crisis Group, and the New America Foundation/American Strategy Program, October 2007.

1. Crisis Group's Middle East Initiative

On 22 September 2006, the International Crisis Group launched a new global advocacy initiative designed to generate new political momentum for a comprehensive settlement of the Arab-Israeli conflict. Major funding support for the project — to cost around US$400,000 in its first year — was announced at the Clinton Global Initiative meeting in New York.

Crisis Group's Initiative was designed to help fill the present policy vacuum, stem the slide toward greater instability, and provide a viable alternative for moderates in the region on both the Israeli and Arab sides. The goal, or political horizon, must be unambiguously stated as security and full recognition to the state of Israel within internationally recognised borders — along with an end to the occupation for the Palestinian people in an independent, sovereign state with East Jerusalem as its capital, recovery of lost land to Syria, and a fully sovereign and secure Lebanese state.

Further details of Crisis Group's Middle East Initiative, including the full text of the document and list of signatories, can be found on our Middle East Initiative page.

2. Crisis Group: Getting to a Comprehensive Middle East Settlement

In July 2002, the International Crisis Group issued a series of three reports making the case for a more comprehensive international approach directed at resolving the Arab-Israeli conflict on all its tracks. The reports argued that a U.S.-led international coalition made up of the Quartet plus Arab countries should put on the table clear, detailed, and comprehensive blueprints for a permanent Israeli-Palestinian, Israeli-Lebanese and Israeli-Syrian peace treaties and press for their acceptance.

The goal was to put forward with great clarity and in substantial detail the international community's strong, consensual view of what the final outcomes should ultimately look like as well as the important steps the international community would be prepared to take (economic assistance, military security presence, and full Arab normalisation with Israel) should such agreements be reached. 
 
Significant developments have occurred since Crisis Group made its proposal, and these inevitably entail modifications to it. But we believe the proposal constitutes a useful and still relevant starting point for a much-needed reappraisal of the international community’s approach toward the Arab-Israeli conflict.

Links to the full text of Crisis Group's 2002 reporting series are offered here:

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3. Latest Reporting from Crisis Group on Israel/Occupied Territories

Crisis Group’s reports on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Ruling Palestine I: Gaza Under Hamas (13 March 2008) and Ruling Palestine II: The West Bank Model? (17 July 2008), examined the situation since the Hamas takeover of Gaza in June 2007 and the subsequent formation of a new government in the West Bank. Crisis Group’s recent briefing, Palestine Divided (17 December 2008), underlines the widening gap between the two territories and looks at prospects for restoring Palestinian unity.

Crisis Group’s most recent report, Israel’s Religious Right and the Question of Settlements (20 July 2009), focuses on the increasing role Israel’s religious right plays in the country, and their importance to the West Bank settlement issue.

The effort to settle in the occupied territories once was led by secular Zionists. No more. Today, the settlement issue is being quickly transformed by the shifting dynamics of the religious right. Tens of thousands of national-religious Jews populate the settlements; they enjoy political, logistical and other forms of support from hundreds of thousands inside Israel proper. In addition, an equal if not larger number of ultra-orthodox who initially shared little of the national-religious outlook, gradually have been gravitating toward their view; many among them are now settlers. Together, the national-religious and ultra-orthodox carry weight far in excess of their numbers. They occupy key positions in the military, the government and the education and legal sectors, as well as various layers of the bureaucracy. They help shape decision-making and provide a support base for religious militants, thereby strengthening the struggle against future territorial withdrawals from both within and without state institutions.

The religious right believes it has time on its side. Its two principal camps – the national-religious and ultra-orthodox – boast the country’s highest birth rates. They have doubled their population in West Bank settlements in a decade. They are rising up military ranks. Their political parties traditionally play important roles within ruling government coalitions. Many – in the leadership and among the grassroots – are preparing the ground for the next battle over settlements and territorial withdrawal, animated by a deeply rooted conviction in the rightness of their cause. Treating every confrontation – however insignificant the apparent stake – as a test of wills, religious militants have responded to the demolition of plyboard huts with revenge strikes on Palestinians, stoning their cars, burning their crops, cutting their trees and occasionally opening fire. Mainstream religious leaders for the most part appear powerless to condemn, let alone tamp down the violence.

In the run-up to the 2005 Gaza withdrawal, some analysts and even a few decision-makers predicted violent clashes and hard fought evacuations. They were mistaken. Disengagement proceeded remarkably peacefully and smoothly. But it would be wrong to veer to the other extreme and assume that what happened in Gaza will be replicated in the West Bank. There are differences in numbers, background and militancy of the respective settler populations. Plus, Gaza taught lessons to all sides, the government but also the militants. Since then, the latter have been preparing for the next round. They are banking on their support within state institutions to discourage the government from taking action and on their own rank and file to ensure that every attempt to evict an outpost or destroy a structure comes at a heavy price. For that reason, some security officials worry that unrest could spread, with violence not only between Israeli Jews and Palestinians but also among Jews; they also fear discord in military ranks that could complicate action.

Some steps are long overdue. Having long given succour to the settlement enterprise, the state needs to rein it in; while it at times has acted against the excesses of individual religious militants, it too often has shown excessive lenience toward anti-Palestinian violence or hateful incitement, especially with a religious content. Rabbis who call on soldiers to defy army orders to remove settlements or who justify violence in many cases continue to receive state salaries; religious colleges with a record of militancy continue to operate without oversight or regulation; inflammatory material finds its way on to army bases. All this should stop. Judicial and law enforcement agencies need to investigate and prosecute cases of anti-Palestinian violence and hate crimes. The army should show the same determination in protecting non-Jewish as it does Jewish civilians in the West Bank.

The current mix of neither strict law enforcement nor effective outreach is a recipe for greater difficulties ahead. To ignore the reality and weight of Israel’s religious right would hamper an already uncertain path to an Israeli-Palestinian agreement and, should an agreement be reached, toward a lasting and sustainable peace.

Click here to read the full report.

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4. Previous Crisis Group reporting and analysis on the Middle East

Crisis Group's most recent reports and op-eds are listed below:

Reports:

Articles and opinion pieces by Crisis Group analysts:

For further reports on the region, please visit our Arab-Israeli project page.

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5. Background to the conflict

For a month-by-month summary of events in the region, visit our CrisisWatch database.

A brief background on the conflict is available at our Israel/Occupied Territories and Lebanon conflict history pages.

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6. Background documents

The following are proposals and commitments laid down in both UN Security Council resolutions and recent initiatives:

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