CrisisWatch N°41, 2 January 2007

Ten actual or potential conflict situations around the world deteriorated in December 2006, according to the new issue of CrisisWatch,* released today.

In Somalia, full-scale war erupted between the Council of Somali Islamic Courts and the Ethiopian-backed Transitional Federal Government, with fighting estimated to have killed hundreds of people and displaced tens of thousands. In Darfur, the humanitarian and security situation deteriorated while international negotiations continued over the deployment of a strengthened peacekeeping force.

The Occupied Territories saw their worst factional clashes in a decade as Fatah and Hamas battled over the formation of a unity government. Tensions over Iran’s nuclear program rose after the UN Security Council voted unanimously to impose sanctions.

The sudden death of Turkmenistan’s authoritarian leader, Saparmurat Niyazov, prompted fears of a destabilising struggle to fill the power vacuum left behind. In Fiji, the government of Laisenia Qarase was deposed by military commander Frank Bainimarama in a bloodless coup. The situation also deteriorated in the Basque Country, Bolivia, Egypt and Kyrgyzstan.

One situation showed improvement in December. In Guinea, supporters of President Conte and the opposition reached consensus on conditions for organising legislative elections in June 2007.

For January 2007, CrisisWatch identifies Lebanon as a Conflict Risk Alert, or situation at particular risk of new or significantly escalated conflict in the coming month. A Conflict Resolution Opportunity is identified for Uganda.
 

DECEMBER 2006 TRENDS

Deteriorated Situations
Basque Country (Spain), Bolivia, Egypt, Fiji, Iran, Israel/Occupied Territories, Kyrgyzstan, Somalia, Sudan, Turkmenistan 

Improved Situations
Guinea

Unchanged Situations
Afghanistan, Albania, Algeria, Angola, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Belarus, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Central African Republic, Chad, Chechnya (Russia), Colombia, Comoros Islands, Côte d’Ivoire, Cyprus, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ecuador, Ethiopia, Ethiopia/Eritrea, Georgia, Haiti, Indonesia, Iraq, India (non-Kashmir), Kashmir, Kazakhstan, Kosovo, Lebanon, Liberia, Macedonia, Madagascar, Mauritania, Moldova, Myanmar/Burma, Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan), Nepal, Nigeria, North Caucasus (non-Chechnya), North Korea, Northern Ireland (UK), Pakistan, Peru, Philippines, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Serbia, Sierra Leone, Solomon Islands, Somaliland (Somalia), Sri Lanka, Syria, Taiwan Strait, Tajikistan, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Tonga, Turkey, Uganda, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Venezuela, Western Sahara, Zimbabwe

JANUARY 2007 WATCHLIST

Conflict Resolution Opportunity
Uganda

Conflict Risk Alerts
Lebanon

*NOTE: CrisisWatch indicators - up and down arrows, conflict risk alerts, and conflict resolution opportunities - are intended to reflect changes within countries or situations from month to month, not comparisons between countries. For example, no "conflict risk alert" is given for a country where violence has been occurring and is expected to continue in the coming month: such an indicator is given only where new or significantly escalated violence is feared.

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