International Crisis Group
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Venezuela | Latin
America
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After nine years in power, President Hugo Chávez won an overwhelming re-election in December 2006. Flush with oil revenues, bolstered by high approval ratings and at the start of a six-year term, he expressed confidence about advancing what he calls his Bolivarian Revolution, named after Simón Bolívar, the country’s independence hero, and installing his vaguely defined “Socialism of the 21st Century”.

But his sweeping constitutional reform was defeated in 2 December 2007 polls as many Venezuelans mobilised against it. The student movement emerged as a new actor, and over three million erstwhile pro-Chávez voters did not vote. There are concerns in Venezuela and much of the hemisphere, however, that the ex-colonel and one-time coup leader may be willing to push forward his political project while sacrificing democratic principles. He is not yet a dictator and for the most part has not tried to act in a dictatorial manner, but the trend toward autocracy is strong. If he continues to build personal power at the expense of other institutions and militarise much of the government and political life, there will be serious risks for internal conflict, especially if the oil boom that cushions the economy falters.

Crisis Group follows developments in Venezuela from its Bogotá office. Our reporting focuses on the political history, make-up and goals of the Chávez government, prospects for political reform and current sources of instability. The program also analyses the impact of Chavismo beyond Venezuela’s borders, as well as the country’s role in the regional and inter-continental drugs trade.

Click here for our Venezuela conflict history.


Recent reports & briefings