CrisisWatch N°45, 1 May 2007

Five actual or potential conflict situations around the world deteriorated in April 2007, according to the new issue of CrisisWatch,* released today.

In Somalia, violence raged as government forces and Ethiopian troops clashed with insurgents and clan militias in Mogadishu, killing hundreds and displacing thousands. In Nigeria, the long-awaited general elections were marred by widespread violence and fraud, as well as serious logistical problems.

Turkey saw a sharp escalation in tensions between the ruling AK Party and the secularist opposition and military, as the opposition challenged the constitutionality of the first-round of the presidential election and the armed forces issued a statement declaring their determination to counter "mounting" efforts to undermine the secular republic. The situation also deteriorated in Chad and the Philippines.

Three situations showed improvement in April. In Uganda, significant steps were taken to revive the peace process, as the government and LRA agreed to renew the ceasefire and restart talks under regional mediation. The peace process in Cote d’Ivoire again moved ahead significantly as New Forces rebel leader Guillaume Soro was sworn in as Prime Minister and transitional government posts were allocated among political parties. In Haiti, the security situation improved with stepped-up gang arrests and a decline in kidnappings.

APRIL 2007 TRENDS

Deteriorated Situations
Chad, Nigeria, Philippines, Somalia, Turkey

Improved Situations
Cote d'Ivoire, Haiti, Uganda

Unchanged Situations
Afghanistan, Albania, Algeria, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Basque Country (Spain), Belarus, Bolivia, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Burundi, Central African Republic, Chechnya (Russia), Colombia, Cyprus, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ecuador, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ethiopia/Eritrea, Fiji, Georgia, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, India (non-Kashmir), Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Israel/Occupied Territories, Kashmir, Kazakhstan, Kosovo, Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, Liberia, Macedonia, Maldives, Mauritania, Moldova, Morocco, Myanmar/Burma, Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan), Nepal, Niger, North Caucasus (non-Chechnya), North Korea, Northern Ireland (UK), Pakistan, Peru, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Serbia, Sierra Leone, Somaliland, Sudan, Sri Lanka, Syria, Taiwan Strait, Tajikistan, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Tonga, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Venezuela, Western Sahara, Yemen, Zimbabwe

*NOTE: CrisisWatch indicators - up and down arrows, conflict risk alerts, and conflict resolution opportunities - are intended to reflect changes within countries or situations from month to month, not comparisons between countries. For example, no "conflict risk alert" is given for a country where violence has been occurring and is expected to continue in the coming month: such an indicator is given only where new or significantly escalated violence is feared.

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