International Crisis Group
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Photo: Shi'ites hold flags during a parade commemorating the death anniversary of Shi'ite cleric Mohammed Sadeq al-Sadr in Baghdad's Sadr City November 18, 2007. REUTERS/Kareem Raheem

updated February 2008

Crisis Group has followed developments in Shiite politics in Iraq as part of its reporting on the country since the U.S. invasion in March 2003. Though Iraqi politics is sometimes seen through the prism of divisions between the country's three main communities (Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds), these communities are deeply riven themselves along political lines.

A dramatic decline in bloodshed in the country in recent months can largely be attributed to a six-month unilateral ceasefire called by the Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr in August 2007 in response to strong US military pressure during the Baghdad security plan (the surge). The ceasefire came on the heels of major clashes in Karbala with the rival Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI, formerly known as SCIRI), whose fighters have mostly been integrated into state security forces. Today some elements within Sadr's Mahdi Army and other affiliated groups have begun to resent the ceasefire, and are eager to push back against combined US/ISCI pressure and resume their campaign to empty Baghdad of its Sunni population. In early February 2008, senior Sadrist officials called upon al-Sadr not to extend the ceasefire.

The risk of both another round of fighting in Baghdad and an intra-Shiite civil war in southern Iraq is therefore high, and heightened pressure by the U.S. military and Iraqi government forces may only make things worse. The challenge to both the U.S. and Iraqi governments is to seize the current opportunity presented by the ceasefire and help transform Muqtada's tactical move into a longer-term strategic shift and  encourage the Sadrists' evolution toward a strictly non-violent political actor.

For more on the evolution of Shiite politics over the past five years, see our reporting and commentary collected below.


Crisis Group reports and briefings:

Other Crisis Group analysis: