CrisisWatch N°57, 1 May 2008

Eight actual or potential conflict situations around the world deteriorated in April 2008, and three improved, according to the new issue of CrisisWatch, released today.

Tensions between Georgia and Russia escalated sharply, as Russia unilaterally moved additional peacekeepers into the breakaway region Abkhazia on 1 May. This followed a month of strained relations, including Russian allegations Georgia deployed 1,500 troops in the Upper Kodori valley, and Georgian allegations Russia shot down an unmanned reconnaissance plane over Abkhazia – all vigorously denied by the other. 

The government of Zimbabwe launched a brutal countrywide campaign of violence and intimidation, amid widespread reports that opposition MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai defeated Robert Mugabe in the 29 March presidential election – the official results of which the government continues to block. Opposition gains point to the possibility of transition from ZANU-PF’s long rule, but more violence threatens.

The Burundian peace process is at risk as now-daily clashes between FNL rebels and the army grew fiercer in and around the capital, killing over 50 during the second half of the month.

In Somalia, Mogadishu suffered some of its heaviest fighting for over a decade, and several key towns fell to Islamist militants. And in Yemen, demonstrations in the south turned violent as government troops were sent in, while large-scale fighting between government-aligned forces and al-Houthi Shiite rebels broke out in the north further jeopardising the Qatari-backed peace process. The situation also deteriorated in Haiti, Sri Lanka and Uganda.

In Nepal, twice-postponed polls for a Constituent Assembly were finally held on 10 April under generally free and fair conditions with little violence. Maoist candidates picked up over a third of seats and negotiations are underway to form a power-sharing government. In Timor-Leste, rebel leader Gastão Salsinha, wanted for his alleged role in the 11 February attacks on the president and prime minister, surrendered on 29 April, and Australia announced the withdrawal of 200 extra troops, citing improved security conditions. The situation also improved in Cyprus.

For May 2008, CrisisWatch identifies Burundi, Georgia and Zimbabwe as Conflict Risk Alerts. A Conflict Resolution Opportunity is also identified in Zimbabwe.

APRIL 2008 TRENDS

Deteriorated Situations
Burundi, Georgia, Haiti, Somalia, Sri Lanka, Uganda, Yemen, Zimbabwe

Improved Situations
Cyprus, Nepal, Timor-Leste

Unchanged Situations
Afghanistan, Albania, Algeria, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Basque Country (Spain), Belarus, Bolivia, Bosnia & Herzegovina,  Cameroon, Chad, Chechnya (Russia), China (internal), Colombia, Comoros Islands, Côte d'Ivoire, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ecuador, Egypt, Ethiopia/Eritrea, Ethiopia, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, India (non-Kashmir), Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Israel/Occupied Territories, Kashmir,  Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kosovo, Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, Liberia, Macedonia, Mali, Mauritania, Moldova, Morocco, Myanmar/Burma, Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan), Niger, Nigeria, North Caucasus (non-Chechnya), North Korea, Pakistan, Philippines, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Serbia, Sierra Leone, Somaliland (Somalia), Sudan, Syria, Taiwan Strait, Tajikistan, Thailand, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Venezuela, Western Sahara

MAY 2008 OUTLOOK

Conflict Risk Alerts
Burundi, Georgia, Zimbabwe

Conflict Resolution Opportunity
Zimbabwe

*NOTE: CrisisWatch indicators – up and down arrows, conflict risk alerts, and conflict resolution opportunities – are intended to reflect changes within countries or situations from month to month, not comparisons between countries. For example, no "conflict risk alert" is given for a country where violence has been occurring and is expected to continue in the coming month: such an indicator is given only where new or significantly escalated violence is feared.

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