CrisisWatch N°58, 1 June 2008

Eight actual or potential conflict situations around the world deteriorated in May 2008, and four improved, according to the new issue of CrisisWatch, released today.

Violence flared ahead of and during 1 June parliamentary elections in Macedonia with clashes between ruling and opposition Albanian parties, leaving two dead. Several attacks on opposition DUI offices and members, a reported assassination attempt on its leader, and fatal stabbing of a member of the ruling DPA marred the pre-election period.

In South Africa, brutal xenophobic attacks on foreigners, mostly from Zimbabwe and Mozambique, erupted in Alexandra township on 11 May and spread across the country, leaving over 60 dead and tens of thousands displaced.

In Zimbabwe, organised state violence and oppression further increased following the election commission’s long-delayed 2 May announcement of the results of the 29 March presidential elections. The narrow victory for MDC leader Tsvangirai requires a run-off, now set for 27 June, with further violence feared in the lead-up.

Myanmar/Burma was left devastated by a massive cyclone and the military government’s heavily criticised response. The latest official death toll is 78,000 and 2.4 million may be at risk. The situation also deteriorated in Guinea, India (non-Kashmir), Mali and Sudan.

In Lebanon, a Qatari-brokered deal on 21 May ended the 18-month political stalemate, after a dangerous Hizbollah escalation earlier in the month. Nepal made crucial progress with the successful convening of its newly-elected Constituent Assembly, which abolished the monarchy and established a federal democratic republic in its first sitting.

The situation also improved in Syria and the Taiwan Strait.

For June 2008, CrisisWatch identifies Zimbabwe as Conflict Risk Alert.

MAY 2008 TRENDS

Deteriorated Situations
Guinea, India (non-Kashmir), Macedonia, Mali, Myanmar/Burma, South Africa, Sudan, Zimbabwe

Improved Situations
Lebanon, Nepal, Syria, Taiwan Strait

Unchanged Situations
Afghanistan, Albania, Algeria, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Basque Country (Spain), Belarus, Bolivia, Bosnia & Herzegovina,  Chad, Chechnya (Russia), China (internal), Colombia, Comoros Islands, Côte d'Ivoire, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ecuador, Egypt, Ethiopia/Eritrea, Ethiopia, Guinea-Bissau, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Israel/Occupied Territories, Kashmir,  Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kosovo, Kyrgyzstan, Liberia, Mauritania, Moldova, Morocco, Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan), Niger, Nigeria, North Caucasus (non-Chechnya), North Korea, Pakistan, Philippines, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Serbia, Sierra Leone, Somaliland (Somalia), Sri Lanka, Sudan, Tajikistan, Thailand, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Venezuela, Western Sahara, Yemen

JUNE 2008 OUTLOOK

Conflict Risk Alerts
Zimbabwe

Conflict Resolution Opportunity

*NOTE: CrisisWatch indicators - up and down arrows, conflict risk alerts, and conflict resolution opportunities - are intended to reflect changes within countries or situations from month to month, not comparisons between countries. For example, no "conflict risk alert" is given for a country where violence has been occurring and is expected to continue in the coming month: such an indicator is given only where new or significantly escalated violence is feared.

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