CrisisWatch N°60, 1 August 2008

Six actual or potential conflict situations around the world deteriorated in July 2008 and three improved, according to the new issue of the International Crisis Group’s monthly bulletin CrisisWatch, released today. 

In Somalia, divisions between hardliners and moderates within the Islamist opposition Alliance for the Re-liberation of Somalia threatened the already fragile peace deal signed in June. Amid continuing violence and government appeals for UN troop deployment, the African Union said that the newly extended AMISOM force was incapable of stabilising the situation. Continued deadly attacks on aid workers and lack of escorts for shipments further endangered humanitarian operations.  

In Afghanistan, a car bomb outside the Indian embassy killed scores, and was the deadliest attack in the capital since 2001. Relations with neighbouring Pakistan reached a new low after Kabul alleged involvement by Pakistani intelligence services and shut down talks with Islamabad. Pakistan’s relations with India also deteriorated in July, after bombings in Ahmedabad and a series of gunfire exchanges across the Line of Control in Kashmir.

The situation also deteriorated in the North Caucasus, where violence spread throughout the region, and in Mongolia with deadly post-election riots.

The situation improved in Serbia, where former Bosnian Serb leader Radovan Karadzic was arrested in Belgrade and extradited to the ICTY – an important step towards EU integration by the newly approved pro-EU coalition government.  In Colombia the army’s rescue of former presidential candidate Ingrid Betancourt and 14 other hostages dealt a significant blow to FARC rebels. The situation also improved in Mali, where Algeria helped kick-start talks between the government and Tuareg rebels with a ceasefire 21 July.

For August 2008 CrisisWatch identifies two Conflict Resolution Opportunities. In Zimbabwe, historic face-to-face talks between President Mugabe and MDC opposition leader Tsvangirai are due to resume on 3 August, presenting an opportunity to negotiate a way out of the violent four-month election crisis with a power-sharing government. In Sudan, events in the wake of the 14 July application by the prosecutor of the International Criminal Court for a warrant for Sudanese President Bashir create an important opportunity for progress on the stalled Darfur peace process, CPA implementation and accountability for past abuses.

JULY 2008 TRENDS

Deteriorated Situations
Afghanistan, India (non-Kashmir), Kashmir, Mongolia, North Caucasus (non-Chechnya), Somalia

Improved Situations
Colombia, Mali, Serbia

Unchanged Situations

Algeria, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Basque Country (Spain), Belarus, Bolivia, Bosnia, Burundi, Central African Republic, Chad, Chechnya (Russia), China (internal), Comoros Islands, Côte d’Ivoire, Cyprus, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ecuador, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ethiopia/Eritrea, Georgia, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Haiti, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Israel/Occupied Territories, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kosovo, Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, Liberia, Macedonia, Mauritania, Moldova, Morocco, Myanmar/Burma, Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan), Nepal, Niger, Nigeria, North Korea, Pakistan, Philippines, Rwanda, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Somaliland (Somalia), Sri Lanka, Sudan, Syria, Taiwan Strait, Tajikistan, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Uganda, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Venezuela, Western Sahara, Yemen, Zimbabwe
 
AUGUST 2008 OUTLOOK

Conflict Risk Alerts
None

Conflict Resolution Opportunities
Sudan, Zimbabwe

*NOTE: CrisisWatch indicators - up and down arrows, conflict risk alerts, and conflict resolution opportunities - are intended to reflect changes within countries or situations from month to month, not comparisons between countries. For example, no "conflict risk alert" is given for a country where violence has been occurring and is expected to continue in the coming month: such an indicator is given only where new or significantly escalated violence is feared.

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