International Crisis Group
text only version

1. The current situation
2. What should be done
3. Crisis Group analysis
4. News and other reporting
5. Important documents

updated 12 February 2009

1. The current situation

The short sharp war of August 2008 changed the political scene drastically in the region and in Georgia itself. Immense structural damage has been caused, and refugees are unable to return home. Casualty figures have been hard to determine, although Russia claimed 133 civilians and 64 Russian soldiers were killed, while Georgia says their dead number in the several hundreds. The situation around the administrative borders of South Ossetia and Abhkazia remains tense. The domestic political situation in Georgia has worsened in the months since the war and questions have been asked of President Saakashvili’s judgment during the war and his leadership since. Against the backdrop of a deteriorating economic climate and a lack of new reforms, opposition parties in Georgia called for the President's resignation and new elections in 2009. In our latest briefing, Georgia: The Risks of Winter, published on 26 November 2008, Crisis Group examined the negative economic impact of the war with Russia, the political effects and the internal political dynamics of the country. The report warned that a severe downturn could lead to rising social discontent and attendant political upheaval.

After weeks of low-level hostilities in Georgia’s breakaway region South Ossetia, Tbilisi launched an offensive on the entity's capital Tskhinvali early in August 2008. Russia, supporting the region's claim for independence, responded with a massive counter-attack. A short, full-blown war ensued, where Russian forces pushed deep into Georgia. Following mediation by French president Sarkozy, a ceasefire agreement was reached on 12 August, and  signed by Russia and Georgia on 15-16 August. The six-point agreement called for an immediate end to all use of force, and for both sides to pull back its armies to their pre-war positions. Both the EU and the US strongly  criticised Russia’s "disproportionate" response, President Medvedev announced Russia’s formal recognition of the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia on 26 August; Georgia formally  severed diplomatic ties with Russia on 2 September.

September 2008 saw some Russian troop withdrawal from Georgia. However, 7,600 troops did remain in the two contested territories. Russia still has troops in the Georgian village of Perevi, the Akhalgori region and the Kodori Valley, in contravention of the Sarkozy-Medvedev agreements of August and September. The EU Monitoring Mission in Georgia (EUMM) became operational on 1 October and is designed to contribute to stability in the region, through patrolling in former "buffer zones" around conflict areas, previously occupied by Russian troops. However, Russia refuses to allow the EU monitors access to Abkhazia and S. Ossetia. The two regions ratified a treaty of "Cooperation and Friendship" with Russia on 24 September and 2 October respectively, allowing Russia to build military bases in both regions.

The security situation remains fluid and dangerous. EU monitors report regular shooting between opposing forces on both administrative borders. 11 Georgian police officers have been killed since the end of August. 9 Russian troops were killed in an October 2008 car bomb in Tskhinvali. The OSCE and EUMM have both been fired upon and their monitors kidnapped. To compound matters the OSCE Mission in Georgia was forced to pull out by January 2009 after Russia refused to extend their mandate.

Human Rights Watch have criticised both sides in the August conflict for committing war crimes. International Criminal Court chief prosecutor Louis Moreno-Ocampo said 20 Aug that the court would analyse war crimes allegations. An EU war inquiry mission was launched, led by Heidi Tagliavini to establish the circumstances leading to war and will publish a report in July 2009.

The aftermath of the war presents problems. According to the UNHCR, 37,600 displaced persons have been unable to return home post-war, including more than 20,000 ethnic Georgians from South Ossetia and serious domestic tensions may follow as the economic situation worsens. However, in October, international donors pledged $4.5 billion dollars over three years to aid post-conflict recovery.

Background

South Ossetia, located in the north of Georgia and bordering Russian province North Ossetia, has been seeking full independence since 1990. Brutal clashes 1991-1992 between forces loyal to Tskhinvali and Tbilisi respectively left 1,000 dead before the Russian-brokered Sochi Agreement in June 1992 brought a ceasefire including the deployment of joint Russian, Georgian and Ossetian peacekeeping forces. The OSCE-Joint Control Commission with Georgian, South and North Ossetian and Russian participation was established as the main negotiation mechanism. Current leader Eduard Kokoiti – elected in unrecognised presidential elections in 2001 and 2006 – wants reunification with North Ossetia within the Russian Federation. Renewed fighting broke out in South Ossetia in summer 2004, when Tbilisi attempted to beef up anti-smuggling operations in the territory. In 2007 Georgia proposed changes to peace negotiations to replace OSCE-led Joint Control Commission and established provisional administration in Georgian-controlled areas of the conflict zone. Russia and South Ossetia never accepted the modifications, and negotiations had since remained suspended.

For a more detailed history of the conflict, see Crisis Group’s Georgia conflict history.

For the latest news and updates on the current situation, go to the BBC’s section on the conflict, to breaking news on Reuters AlertNet or to Eurasianet’s Georgia reporting.

top

2. What needs to be done

In our latest briefing, Georgia: The Risks of Winter, published on 26 November 2008, Crisis Group examined the negative economic impact of the war with Russia, the political effects and the internal political dynamics of the country. The report included the following recommendations:

1. Tbilisi must restore a stable environment conducive to foreign investment and development if it wants to regain pre-war levels of growth.

2. The Government must ensure that it implements a more effective social assistance strategy, carries out democratic changes in the broadcast media, creates an independent judiciary and prevents abuse of property rights.

3. Parliament, overwhelmingly controlled by the authorities, needs to embark on the serious electoral revisions recommended by the OSCE/ODIHR.

4. Government and opposition forces should refrain from grandstanding and empty rhetoric and engage in a genuine dialogue about the future of the country.

top

3. Crisis Group analysis

Crisis Group reports:

For a full list of all Crisis Group Georgia reports, please click here.

Crisis Group commentary:

Note on the application of R2P to the Georgia/Russia Conflict, 19 August 2008, prepared for the Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect

Crisis Group Conflict Alerts:

Multimedia presentation:

Crisis Group has produced a multimedia presentation on the Georgia-Russia conflict, click here to view it. 

top

4. News and other reporting

For the latest news and updates on the situation in Georgia, go to the BBC’s section on the conflict, to breaking news on Reuters AlertNet, to Eurasianet’s Georgia reporting or to the Georgia based news site Civil Georgia.

Human Rights Watch has reported extensively on the conflict’s impact on the civilian population, including on early casualty figures (Update on Casualties and Displaced Civilians, 10 August 2008) and recent violence in Gori (Militias Attack Civilians in Gori Region, 17 August 2008). All Georgia reporting can be found here.

For background on Georgia and the conflict in South Ossetia, visit the BBC’s Georgia country profile and day-to-day timeline of the crisis, Reuters AlertNet’s crisis profile of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, or ReliefWeb’s Georgia section. The Institute for War & Peace Reporting, the OSCE and RFE/RL also have extensive sections on Georgia and the Caucasus.

The Warsaw-based Centre for Eastern Studies in May 2008 published the report "Reintegration or Reconquest? Georgia's policy towards Abkhazia and South Ossetia in the context of the internal and international situation", with an update here.

Blogs dedicated to Georgia and the Caucasus

top

5. Important documents

Statements from the Government of Georgia on the situation can be found here, while materials from the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs can be found here.

top