CrisisWatch N°74, 1 October 2009

Four actual or potential conflict situations around the world deteriorated and none improved in September 2009, according to the new issue of the International Crisis Group's monthly bulletin CrisisWatch, released today.

In Guinea, mounting frustration with the ruling military junta spilled over into large-scale demonstrations in and around the capital at the end of the month, as tens of thousands hit the streets to protest clear moves by junta leader Dadis Camara to stand in presidential polls now set for January 2010. On 28 September, security forces in Conakry opened fire, killing at least 157 protesters, wounding over 1,000 and reportedly committing brutal sexual attacks on demonstrators and bystanders. The riots have underlined wider fears of extended military rule following the death last December of long-standing President Lansana Conté, and the potential for further escalation as the election timeframe narrows.

The political turmoil in Afghanistan intensified as allegations of fraud in August's presidential elections, mainly favouring incumbent Hamid Karzai, mounted. Provisional results gave Karzai 54.6 percent of the vote, but the polls are increasingly seen as illegitimate, with EU observers mid-month declaring that at least one third of ballots showed evidence of fraud. Violence continued to rise, and NATO command warned that the ISAF mission was "likely to fail" without an urgent increase in troops.

Bosnia saw an escalating confrontation between the Office of the High Representative (OHR) and Republika Srpska (RS), after High Representative Valentin Inzko used the OHR's "Bonn Powers" to impose 8 laws on 18 September. The RS government promptly rejected the laws and RS Prime Minister Milorad Dodik threatened to pull all RS officials from the state government. The Peace Implementation Council urged the RS to reconsider its position, warning that moves posed a direct challenge to the Dayton Peace Accords. But with neither side willing to climb down, it remains unclear how the stand-off will be resolved.

In Uganda, 27 people were killed and over 100 arrested over two days of violent riots in Kampala, as thousands hit the streets 10-11 September in support of King Mutebi of Buganda region, after he was banned from visiting a city that is claiming secession from Buganda.

CrisisWatch identifies a conflict resolution opportunity between Armenia and Turkey for the coming month with the 10 October signing of draft protocols to drive forward normalisation of relations following a breakthrough agreement in August. Following the formal signing in Switzerland, the draft protocols will go to the two countries' national parliaments for ratification. However, segments of domestic opposition to rapprochement and uncertainty over the status of Armenia's ongoing dispute with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh continue to threaten progress.

September 2009 TRENDS

Deteriorated Situations
Afghanistan, Bosnia, Guinea, Uganda

Improved Situations
-

Unchanged Situations

Algeria, Armenia, Armenia/Turkey, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Basque Country (Spain), Belarus, Bolivia, Burundi, Central African Republic, Chad, Chechnya (Russia), China (internal), Colombia, Côte d’Ivoire, Cyprus, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ecuador, Egypt, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Fiji, Gabon, Georgia, Guinea-Bissau, Haiti, Honduras, India (non-Kashmir), Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Israel/Occupied Palestinian Territories, Kashmir, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kosovo, Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, Liberia, Macedonia, Madagascar, Mali, Mauritania, Moldova, Morocco, Myanmar/Burma, Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan), Nepal, Niger, Nigeria, North Caucasus (non-Chechnya), Northern Ireland, North Korea, Pakistan, Peru, Philippines, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Serbia, Somalia, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Syria, Taiwan Strait, Tajikistan, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Venezuela, Western Sahara, Yemen, Zimbabwe

October 2009 OUTLOOK

Conflict Risk Alert
-

Conflict Resolution Opportunity
Armenia/Turkey

*NOTE: CrisisWatch indicators - up and down arrows, conflict risk alerts, and conflict resolution opportunities - are intended to reflect changes within countries or situations from month to month, not comparisons between countries. For example, no "conflict risk alert" is given for a country where violence has been occurring and is expected to continue in the coming month: such an indicator is given only where new or significantly escalated violence is feared.

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