TRENDS AND WATCHLIST SUMMARY

DECEMBER 2003 TRENDS

Deteriorated Situations
Central African Republic, Côte d’Ivoire, Haiti, Pakistan, Serbia, Zimbabwe

Improved Situations
Burundi, Comoros Islands, Ethiopia/Eritrea, Guatemala, Kashmir, Libya

Unchanged Situations
Afghanistan, Algeria, Angola, Azerbaijan, Bosnia and Herzegovina, China (internal), Colombia, Corsica, Cyprus, DR of Congo, Ecuador, Egypt, Georgia, Guinea, India (non-Kashmir), Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Israel/Occupied Territories, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Kosovo, Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, Liberia, Macedonia, Mauritania, Moldova, Morocco, Myanmar (Burma), Nagorno-Karabakh, Nepal, Nigeria, North Korea, Northern Ireland, Papua New Guinea, Peru, Philippines, Republic of Congo, Russia (Chechnya), Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Sierra Leone, Solomon Islands, Somalia, Spain (Basque region), Sri Lanka, Sudan, Syria, Taiwan Strait, Tajikistan, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Uganda, Uzbekistan, Venezuela, Western Sahara, Yemen

JANUARY 2004 WATCHLIST

Conflict Risk Alert
Côte d’Ivoire, Georgia, Haiti, Sudan

Conflict Resolution Opportunity