Nine conflicts around the world notably deteriorated last month, according to the July issue of ICG's CrisisWatch bulletin. In Sudan, despite assurances from Khartoum in response to visits from U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell and UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan, there are deep anxieties about the scale of the impending humanitarian disaster, with over one million displaced and continuing attacks on civilians. Neighbouring Chad, hosting up to 200,000 Darfurian refugees and worried about cross-border attacks and the risk of interethnic destabilisation, was also on CrisisWatch's list of deteriorated situations.

Chechnya (Russia), too, declined after a major rebel attack in next-door Ingushetia killed close to 100. In the Democratic Republic of Congo, the rebel capture of Bukavu from 2-9 June, which left over 100 dead and caused waves of refugees, drew attention to the increasing instability in that country. The situation also worsened in Afghanistan, Bolivia, Côte d'Ivoire, Georgia and Iran.

Five conflict situations showed improvement in June 2004. The Philippines enjoyed an unexpectedly smooth election process, concluding on 23 June. After 18 months without a head of state, Serbia elected a new reform-minded president, rejecting a radical nationalist candidate in the second round of voting. North Korea, Sierra Leone and Venezuela also demonstrated progress in June: North Korea, as a U.S. proposal at six-way talks in Beijing broke the deadlock in negotiations; Sierra Leone, after the UN-backed war crimes tribunal got under way, and Venezuela, after the constitutional process moved forward without expected disruptions or violence.

For July 2004, CrisisWatch identifies Georgia and Kosovo as Conflict Risk Alerts, or situations at particular risk of further conflict in the coming month. CrisisWatch identified no Conflict Resolution Opportunities for July 2004.

TRENDS AND WATCHLIST SUMMARY

JUNE 2004 TRENDS

Deteriorated Situations
Afghanistan, Bolivia, Chad, Chechnya (Russia), Côte d'Ivoire, DR Congo, Georgia, Iran, Sudan

Improved Situations
North Korea, Philippines, Serbia, Sierra Leone, Venezuela

Unchanged Situations
Albania, Algeria, Angola, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Basque region (Spain), Bosnia & Herzegovina, Burundi, China (internal), Colombia, Cyprus, East Timor, Ecuador, Egypt, Ethiopia/Eritrea, Guinea, Haiti, India (non-Kashmir), Indonesia, Iraq, Israel/Occupied Territories, Jordan, Kashmir, Kazakhstan, Kosovo, Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, Liberia, Libya, Macedonia, Madagascar, Moldova, Morocco, Myanmar/Burma, Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan), Nepal, Nigeria, Northern Ireland (UK), Pakistan, Peru, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sri Lanka, Syria, Taiwan Strait, Tajikistan, Thailand, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Uganda, Uzbekistan, Western Sahara, Yemen, Zimbabwe

JULY 2004 WATCHLIST

Conflict Risk Alert
Georgia, Kosovo

Conflict Resolution Opportunity
None

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