July 2004 saw deteriorations in eight conflict situations worldwide, according to August's CrisisWatch bulletin. The 30 July simultaneous suicide bombings of the U.S. and Israeli embassies and the general prosecutor's office in Tashkent aggravated the situation in Uzbekistan. In Kashmir, violence increased in the run-up to Indo-Pakistan peace talks, leaving over 200 dead, including numerous civilians. Sri Lanka's February 2002 ceasefire grew increasingly fragile with the 8 July suicide bombing in Colombo, which killed four police officers. Throughout the month, Thailand saw almost daily killings of policemen, officials and village administrators in the south of the country. The situations in Guinea, Madagascar, Moldova and Peru also deteriorated in July.

On the positive side, four potential conflict situations showed some improvement last month. After intensive negotiations, months of stalemate in Côte d'Ivoire ended with a potential breakthrough, as the opposition agreed to rejoin President Gbagbo's government following compromises on both sides. However, considerable scepticism on implementation of the deal remained. In Nigeria, recent flare-ups of ethno-religious violence, which had left hundreds dead in previous months, subsided. Algeria and Bolivia also showed improvement in July.

For August 2004, CrisisWatch identifies Sri Lanka and Georgia as Conflict Risk Alerts, or situations at particular risk of further conflict in the coming month. The only Conflict Resolution Opportunity identified for August is Nagorno-Karabakh, where reports of new Armenian flexibility have raised hopes of progress in negotiations with Azerbaijan.

TRENDS AND WATCHLIST SUMMARY

JULY 2004 TRENDS

Deteriorated Situations
Guinea, Kashmir, Madagascar, Moldova, Peru, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Uzbekistan

Improved Situations 
Algeria, Bolivia, Côte d'Ivoire, Nigeria

Unchanged Situations
Afghanistan, Albania, Angola, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Basque region (Spain), Bosnia-Herzegovina, Burundi, Chad, Chechnya (Russia), China (internal), Colombia, Cyprus, DR Congo, Ethiopia/Eritrea, East Timor, Egypt, Georgia, Haiti, India (non-Kashmir), Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Israel/Occupied Territories, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Kosovo, Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, Liberia, Libya, Macedonia, Morocco, Myanmar/Burma, Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan), Nepal, North Korea, Northern Ireland (UK), Pakistan, Philippines, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Serbia, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Taiwan Strait, Tajikistan, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Uganda, Venezuela, Western Sahara, Yemen, Zimbabwe

AUGUST 2004 WATCHLIST

Conflict Risk Alert 
Georgia, Sri Lanka

Conflict Resolution Opportunity
Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan) 

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