Ten conflict situations deteriorated in November 2004 according to the December edition of CrisisWatch. The rigged 21 November presidential runoff elections in Ukraine sparked mass protests and left the country in turmoil. Cote d'Ivoire took a dramatic step backward, with government planes breaking the ceasefire in the north, 19,000 fleeing to Liberia, and French destruction of the Ivorian airforce in retaliation for air strikes that killed nine French peacekeepers. The Democratic Republic of the Congo came under repeated threats of invasion by Rwanda as Kigali worried about rebels in eastern DRC. Despite positive movement in peace talks between the Sudanese government and southern rebels, Darfur experienced increasing violence. The situations in Central African Republic, Guinea, Kosovo, Nepal, Serbia & Montenegro and Uzbekistan also worsened in November.

Four countries saw their situations improve in November 2004. Macedonia's referendum on decentralisation failed to attract the minimum turnout, signalling approval of plans for new local government boundaries introduced under the Ohrid peace agreement. Iran pledged a full, if temporary, suspension of uranium enrichment, allowing more time for further negotiations to resolve the nuclear issue comprehensively. Ethiopia's parliament approved a government plan to accept "in principle" a disputed boundary commission ruling on the town of Badme, reversing a position that had stymied peace with Eritrea. And Burundi’s peace process got back on track.

For December 2004, CrisisWatch identifies Cote d'Ivoire, Democratic Republic of Congo, Kosovo, and Ukraine as Conflict Risk Alerts, or situations at particular risk of further conflict in the coming month. CrisisWatch labels Ethiopia/Eritrea, Northern Ireland and Ukraine Conflict Resolution Opportunities for December 2004.

The CrisisWatch Trends and Watchlist Summary for this month follow:

TRENDS AND WATCHLIST SUMMARY

NOVEMBER 2004 TRENDS

Deteriorated Situations
Cote d'Ivoire, Central African Republic, DR Congo, Guinea,  Kosovo, Nepal, Serbia & Montenegro, Sudan, Ukraine, Uzbekistan

Improved Situations
Burundi, Ethiopia/Eritrea, Iran, Macedonia

Unchanged Situations
Afghanistan, Albania, Algeria, Angola, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Basque Country (Spain), Bolivia, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Chad, Chechnya (Russia), China (internal), Colombia, Cyprus, Egypt, Georgia, Haiti, India (non-Kashmir), Indonesia, Iraq, Israel/Occupied Territories, Jordan, Kashmir, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, Liberia, Mauritania, Moldova, Mozambique, Myanmar/Burma,  Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan), Nigeria, North Korea, Northern Ireland (UK), Pakistan, Peru, Philippines, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Sri Lanka, Syria, Taiwan Strait, Tajikistan, Thailand, Timor Leste, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Uganda, Venezuela, Western Sahara, Zimbabwe

DECEMBER 2004 WATCHLIST

Conflict Risk Alert
Cote d'Ivoire, Kosovo, DR Congo, Ukraine

Conflict Resolution Opportunity
Ethiopia/Eritrea, Northern Ireland (UK), Ukraine

Search current and all past editions of CrisisWatch by using the CrisisWatch database.

CrisisWatch is available in electronic and printed versions. The electronic version is free; to subscribe click here. Printed copies of CrisisWatch are available for a yearly subscription fee of Euro 60, including postage anywhere in the world. Click here to go to the printed subscription page, or click here if you wish to download a payment form and fax it to us.