http://www.crisisgroup.org The International Crisis Group (Crisis Group) is an independent, non-profit, non-governmental organisation committed to preventing and resolving deadly conflict. en-us Copyright 2009 Crisis Group Fri, 3 Jul 2009 02:10:12 +0100 360 http://www.crisisgroup.org/rss/CrisisGroup.jpg http://www.crisisgroup.org http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6203 Read op-ed ]]> Thu, 2 Jul 2009 00:00:00 GMT http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6202 To avoid jeopardising Côte d’Ivoire’s peace agreement, President Laurent Gbagbo and other Ivorian leaders must speed up implementation of its key provisions before the November election. The 2007 Ouagadougou Peace Agreement, which ended five years of fighting and territorial partition between the government and the rebel “Forces Nouvelles”, is fragile. National and local authorities need to dramatically increase the tempo of electoral preparations, administrative reunification and disarmament of armed groups or the country could slide back into open conflict. Time is pressing for a relaunch of the Ouagadougou Peace Agreement. A slide back into open conflict must be avoided.

Read more ]]> Thu, 2 Jul 2009 00:00:00 GMT http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6196 Read full report ]]> Wed, 1 Jul 2009 00:00:00 GMT http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6201 Read op-ed ]]> Wed, 1 Jul 2009 00:00:00 GMT http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6186 The Sri Lankan government must reform the country’s judicial system urgently if the military defeat of the Tamil Tigers is to lead to a lasting peace. Rather than assuaging conflict, the courts have corroded the rule of law and worsened ethnic tensions. They are neither constraining militarisation of Sri Lankan society nor protecting minority rights. Instead, a politicised bench has entrenched favoured allies, punished foes and blocked compromises with the Tamil minority. The judiciary’s intermittent interventions on important political questions have limited settlement options for the ethnic conflict. The recent appointment of a new chief justice is an opportunity for reforms to begin.

Read full report ]]> Tue, 30 Jun 2009 00:00:00 GMT http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6199 Read op-ed ]]> Tue, 30 Jun 2009 00:00:00 GMT http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6189 Read op-ed ]]> Mon, 29 Jun 2009 00:00:00 GMT http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6193 Read op-ed ]]> Mon, 29 Jun 2009 00:00:00 GMT http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6195 Read op-ed ]]> Mon, 29 Jun 2009 00:00:00 GMT http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6187 Read op-ed ]]> Sat, 27 Jun 2009 00:00:00 GMT http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6185 Read op-ed ]]> Fri, 26 Jun 2009 00:00:00 GMT http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6184 Read op-ed ]]> Fri, 26 Jun 2009 00:00:00 GMT http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6183 Read op-ed ]]> Thu, 25 Jun 2009 00:00:00 GMT http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6180 Read speech ]]> Thu, 25 Jun 2009 00:00:00 GMT http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6177 Without outside help to end military involvement in politics and impunity, it may be impossible to halt Guinea-Bissau’s slide into further violence. The killings of General Tagme (the chief of defence staff) and President Vieira in March, as well as the recent assassinations of opposition leaders and former ministers, are an indication the democratic process cannot cope. The international community should capitalise on the 28 June presidential election to signal that the continued use of force and human rights abuses are unacceptable and will entail consequences. Both Guinea-Bissau’s democratic forces and the international community have to make stronger efforts to deal with military power.

Read more ]]> Thu, 25 Jun 2009 00:00:00 GMT http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6178 Read op-ed ]]> Wed, 24 Jun 2009 00:00:00 GMT http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6176 The enormous international resources and attention now focused on Afghanistan’s elections must be channelled into strategically strengthening the country’s political institutions. The presidential and provincial council elections in August 2009 should be held in a way that reinforces processes and institutions in the run-up to National Assembly and district elections in 2010. In particular, outstanding constitutional questions need to be resolved, and there must be a better balance between the branches of government to ensure more equitable representation and increased accountability. Future polls have to be embedded in a broader democratic and institutional process.

Read full report ]]> Wed, 24 Jun 2009 00:00:00 GMT http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6164 Read op-ed ]]> Tue, 23 Jun 2009 00:00:00 GMT http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6171 Russian diplomatic pressure is dismantling the critical international conflict resolution machinery in Georgia, leaving the region facing a potentially explosive situation in which even a small incident could spark new fighting. Moscow’s 15 June Security Council veto of an extension of the UN observer mission in Georgia and Abkhazia and its apparent intention to require the removal of the mission of the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) by 30 June are deep blows to regional security. Moscow should instead take a responsible approach that encourages internationally recognised institutions of conflict prevention and resolution to work freely on the ground.

Read more ]]> Mon, 22 Jun 2009 00:00:00 GMT http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6170 Unless the Thai government can give more attention to tackling the Muslim insurgency in the South, moving from a military toward a political solution, the violent conflict will intensify as the recruitment of young militants will accelerate. The insurgency continues to enlist young Malay Muslims, especially from private Islamic schools. The recruits are driven not by global jihad but by a desire to defend their ethnic and religious identity from what they perceive as oppression by the Thai Buddhist state. Bangkok has been distracted by its own turmoil but needs to refocus attention on the South and address Malay Muslims’ grievances to end the violence.

Read full report ]]> Mon, 22 Jun 2009 00:00:00 GMT http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6174 Read op-ed ]]> Mon, 22 Jun 2009 00:00:00 GMT http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6165 Read op-ed ]]> Fri, 19 Jun 2009 00:00:00 GMT http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6166 Read op-ed ]]> Fri, 19 Jun 2009 00:00:00 GMT http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6169 Read op-ed ]]> Fri, 19 Jun 2009 00:00:00 GMT http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6167 Read speech ]]> Fri, 19 Jun 2009 00:00:00 GMT http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6160 Read full report ]]> Thu, 18 Jun 2009 00:00:00 GMT http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6159 Read full report ]]> Thu, 18 Jun 2009 00:00:00 GMT http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6163 Last Friday’s UN Security Council Resolution was an appropriately strong and united condemnation of North Korea’s second nuclear test and should be accompanied by strong containment measures and continued effective military deterrence to ensure that the situation does not further deteriorate. But keeping the door open for diplomacy is the only way the denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula can be achieved. North Korea: Getting Back to Talks examines the international community’s options in the wake of the test and the UNSC resolution. It is being published simultaneously with two background reports on the country’s military capabilities: North Korea’s Nuclear and Missile Programs and North Korea’s Chemical and Biological Weapons Programs.

Read full report ]]> Thu, 18 Jun 2009 00:00:00 GMT http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6157 Read op-ed ]]> Mon, 15 Jun 2009 00:00:00 GMT http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6158 Read op-ed ]]> Mon, 15 Jun 2009 00:00:00 GMT http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6155 Read op-ed ]]> Thu, 11 Jun 2009 00:00:00 GMT http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6154 Read op-ed ]]> Thu, 11 Jun 2009 00:00:00 GMT http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6147 Read op-ed ]]> Wed, 10 Jun 2009 00:00:00 GMT http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6152 Read op-ed ]]> Wed, 10 Jun 2009 00:00:00 GMT http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6144 Read op-ed ]]> Tue, 9 Jun 2009 00:00:00 GMT http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6175 Read speech ]]> Tue, 9 Jun 2009 00:00:00 GMT http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6130 The challenge of Lebanon’s 7 June elections will be to bring winners and losers together to avoid triggering another cycle of violent confrontation. Underlying conflicts will be revived, not resolved. Regardless of who ultimately prevails -- the Hizbollah-dominated alliance or the pro-Western coalition -- forming a viable government and agreeing on a common program will in the best case be time-consuming and require difficult concessions on all sides. As election day nears, battle lines are becoming starker. Increasingly radical positions on both sides foreshadow arduous negotiations to reach a compromise.

Read full report ]]> Thu, 4 Jun 2009 00:00:00 GMT http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6129 Unless relief, rehabilitation and reconstruction efforts in Pakistan’s Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP) are urgently improved, the army’s offensive against the Taliban risks leaving the extremists the ultimate winners. The army’s use of heavy force in Malakand Division, failure to address the full cost to civilians and refusal to allow effective humanitarian access to conflict zones has already been counterproductive in terms of public and political support for action against the Taliban. The government should create mechanisms to make aid distribution accountable to communities of internally displaced persons (IDPs), demand greater civilian oversight and humanitarian access, and prohibit banned jihadi groups from participating in relief efforts.

Read more ]]> Wed, 3 Jun 2009 00:00:00 GMT http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6131 Genuinely normal Iran-U.S. relations may be out of reach for now, but the two could achieve a more realistic objective: beginning a long-term dialogue that minimises risks of confrontation while working on areas of mutual interest. The current guarded optimism for improved ties is partially warranted -- this is the most promising moment in a generation. But expectations of the two sides appear mismatched, and the gap between their positions remains large. Hearing Tehran’s arguments, we already find the seeds of potential misunderstandings, but knowing them also means negotiators can try to neutralise them before they grow.

Read more ]]> Tue, 2 Jun 2009 00:00:00 GMT http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6127 Read op-ed ]]> Tue, 2 Jun 2009 00:00:00 GMT http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6124 Nine actual or potential conflict situations around the world deteriorated and none improved in May 2009, according to CrisisWatch. Somalia was rocked by intense fighting as an alliance of anti-government Islamist factions launched a large-scale offensive in and around Mogadishu, and Crisis Group identifies a Conflict Risk Alert for June. In Pakistan the army’s heavy offensive against the Taliban continued, leading to a massive humanitarian crisis with more than 2.4 million displaced. Tensions between Chad and Sudan escalated following an assault by Chadian rebels from bases across the border in Darfur, prompting retaliatory air strikes by Chadian forces on Sudanese soil.

Read full report ]]> Mon, 1 Jun 2009 00:00:00 GMT http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6132 Read op-ed ]]> Mon, 1 Jun 2009 00:00:00 GMT http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6122 Read op-ed ]]> Fri, 29 May 2009 00:00:00 GMT http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6119 Read op-ed ]]> Thu, 28 May 2009 00:00:00 GMT http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6117 Read op-ed ]]> Wed, 27 May 2009 00:00:00 GMT http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6113 Local, national and international actors should move quickly to prevent a new round of violence in Yemen’s Saada governorate that could destabilise a state already under severe duress. The destructive war in that northern governorate pits a rebel group, known generically as the Huthis, against government forces. After two decades of relative stability that confounded diplomats and analysts alike, the current convergence of economic, political and secessionist challenges is testing the regime’s coping capacity. The Saada conflict may not be the most covered of those challenges internationally, but it carries grave risks for Yemen’s political, sectarian and social equilibrium.

Read full report ]]> Wed, 27 May 2009 00:00:00 GMT http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6115 Read op-ed ]]> Wed, 27 May 2009 00:00:00 GMT http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6116 Read op-ed ]]> Wed, 27 May 2009 00:00:00 GMT http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6112 Colombia’s government must urgently address human rights abuses to enhance its security policy and bring lasting peace to the country. The government argues that the human rights record has improved with its “democratic security policy”, but serious abuses, including of international humanitarian law, persist and in some instances are even increasing. The government and the human rights community need to overcome mutual distrust by dialogue and concrete actions, starting with an end to officials’ efforts to link human rights organisations with the guerrillas. The U.S., Canada and the EU should actively promote rapprochement between the security forces and human rights advocates. 

Read more ]]> Mon, 25 May 2009 00:00:00 GMT http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6110 Extremist fugitives still have the potential to turn non-violent activists into would-be bombers in Indonesia, even as the overall threat of terrorism declines. The trials of ten men from Palembang, South Sumatra, sentenced last month to heavy terms on terrorism charges, show how radicalisation takes place. The sobering revelation is how easy the transformation can be, if the right ingredients are present. In this case, the most important element in turning the group toward violence was charismatic leadership, provided by two fugitives. Ultimately, the Palembang group failed in four out of five of its planned operations, but the case holds important lessons for counter-radicalisation strategies.

Read more ]]> Wed, 20 May 2009 00:00:00 GMT http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6109 Read op-ed ]]> Wed, 20 May 2009 00:00:00 GMT http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6108 Read op-ed ]]> Tue, 19 May 2009 00:00:00 GMT http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6103 Read op-ed ]]> Fri, 15 May 2009 00:00:00 GMT http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6104 Read op-ed ]]> Fri, 15 May 2009 00:00:00 GMT http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6101 Read op-ed ]]> Thu, 14 May 2009 00:00:00 GMT http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6102 Read media release ]]> Thu, 14 May 2009 00:00:00 GMT http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6100 Read op-ed ]]> Thu, 14 May 2009 00:00:00 GMT http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6098 Read op-ed ]]> Tue, 12 May 2009 00:00:00 GMT http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6092 A major effort is needed to persuade the Serbian minority that it has a future in Kosovo if the new state is to solidify its controversial independence. The Pristina government should do more to emphasise to Kosovo Serbs – few of whom deal with state bodies – the benefits of dialogue and cooperation. Kosovo’s best opportunity to further the integration of its Serb minority is to implement a comprehensive decentralisation plan like that recommended before independence by the UN Secretary-General’s special envoy, Martti Ahtisaari. It would create new Serb-majority municipalities with enhanced autonomy in education, healthcare and culture that could maintain close ties with Serbia.

Read full report ]]> Tue, 12 May 2009 00:00:00 GMT http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6096 Read media release ]]> Mon, 11 May 2009 00:00:00 GMT http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6097 Read media release ]]> Mon, 11 May 2009 00:00:00 GMT http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6095 The dire situation in the Kivus region of Congo will not improve without a comprehensive strategy of sustained political and results-oriented partnership between the government and the international community. The five-week joint military operation between the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda against Rwandan Hutu rebels in the Kivus did not produce significant results. A peace-building strategy for the Congo should have five priorities: credible and comprehensive disarmament strategy for dealing with Rwandan Hutu rebels in both North and South Kivu; reform of the security sector; fostering reconciliation and human security; political engagement dedicated to improving governance; and continuing efforts to sustain stabile regional relations.

Read full report ]]> Mon, 11 May 2009 00:00:00 GMT