An armoured police vehicle is seen in the Zabarmari district, near Maiduguri, on November 6, 2023, during a burial of farmers that were victims of an attack.

JAS vs. ISWAP: The War of the Boko Haram Splinters

The two jihadist groups in north-eastern Nigeria have bruised each other badly in internecine fighting. But they are still a menace to civilians, both in Nigeria and in the other Lake Chad states. The governments cannot afford to shift their gaze from the militant danger.

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CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Trends for Last Month February 2024

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Outlook for This Month March 2024

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Israel/Palestine Lebanon Yemen

Resolution Opportunities

Israel/Palestine

Israel’s campaign in Gaza in response to Hamas’s 7 October 2023 attacks still overshadows Middle East politics, with the spectre of wider war or other regional instability ever present even as ceasefire talks appear to be making progress. Crisis Group experts offer a 360-degree view.

Two years after Russia’s all-out invasion of Ukraine, Washington is struggling to maintain support for Kyiv. A new assistance package is stuck in Congress. In this Q&A, Crisis Group expert Sarah Harrison explains what is causing the holdup and what it could mean for the war. 

In The News

15 Mar 2024
Especially but certainly not exclusively over Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, tensions between the [Iran and the U.S.] remain significant. New York Times

Ali Vaez

Senior Adviser to the President & Project Director, Iran
15 Mar 2024
Israel’s approach [in Gaza] so far has been to chip away at Hamas, but without anybody or any entity to replace specifically the civil situation there. Wall Street Journal

Mairav Zonszein

Senior Analyst, Israel
6 Mar 2024
The overriding imperative for the Islamic republic [of Iran] is strengthening ideological conformity … even at the cost of losing even more of its legitimacy. RFERL

Ali Vaez

Senior Adviser to the President & Project Director, Iran
5 Mar 2024
The situation [in Haiti] is an emergency … If the gangs continue with these large-scale attacks, they could control all of the capital in a matter of days or weeks. The Guardian

Diego Da Rin

Consultant, Latin America and Caribbean
2 Mar 2024
The situation in Gaza is now so bad that any additional supplies will at least alleviate some suffering. But this is at best a temporary band aid measure. Reuters

Richard Gowan

UN Director

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