War in Sudan’s Darfur region has triggered a refugee crisis in eastern Chad and raised concerns that turmoil could spread. In this Q&A, Crisis Group expert Enrica Picco draws upon research at the Chad-Sudan border to explain the challenges facing N’Djamena.
Aftermath of death of staunch govt opponent continued to roil internal politics; opposition struggled to mobilise for May presidential elections.
Tensions remained high after death of President’s cousin Yaya Dillo. Conflicting reports about Dillo, who led Socialist Party without Borders (PSF) and died in security forces shooting late Feb at party headquarters in capital N’Djamena, sparked speculation about his demise and divisions within ruling elite. Govt 1 March insisted Dillo was killed while resisting lawful arrest but opposition same day labelled killing an execution; authorities 1 March reportedly demolished PSF headquarters, potentially eliminating evidence, and although PM Masra 4 March pledged international investigation, much remained unclear.
Democratic opposition struggled to build political weight against Déby. Ahead of 6 May presidential vote, Constitutional Council 24 March approved ten candidates, and excluded ten others including prominent opponents of military-led govt, notably Nassour Ibrahim Neguy Koursami and Rakhis Ahmat Saleh over “irregularities” in their applications; transitional President Mahamad Déby and recently-appointed PM Masra both cleared to run for office. Earlier, opposition struggled to mobilise behind one figure with some parties supporting Koursami’s candidacy and others that of influential former PM Padacké.
Security in hinterland remained stable, but sporadic violence persisted. Unidentified gunmen 1 March attacked community radio journalist’s home near Mangalmé town (Guera region), killing journalist and two family members. Inter-communal clashes remained prominent; tensions in Djourf Al-Ahmar department (Ouaddaï region) escalated as Mouro and Birgit communities 17 March clashed as part of decades-long tensions, with govt reporting 42 civilians killed during unrest. Meanwhile, govt 25 March announced explosive device killed seven soldiers near Lake Chad in west, saying they suspected Boko Haram jihadists from Nigeria.
In another important development. In wake of Déby’s Jan visit to Russia, France attempted re-engagement with govt; French President Emmanuel Macron’s envoy Jean-Marie Bockel 7 March reassured Déby about continued presence of French troops, with force crucial for regime stability but unpopular with some political actors and civil society groups.
Dans cet épisode d’Afrique 360°, Enrica Picco et Rinaldo Depagne reçoivent Remadji Hoinathy, chercheur à l’ISS pour l’Afrique centrale et le bassin du lac Tchad, et Thierry Vircoulon, chercheur associé à l’IFRI, pour évoquer les prochaines élections présidentielles au Tchad et les menaces internes et externes qui pèsent sur ce pays.
This week on The Horn, Alan is joined by Crisis Group’s Central Africa Director Enrica Picco to discuss Mahamat Déby’s rule in Chad ahead of elections in May, the crackdowns on opposition, the fallout of the war in Sudan and the great power competition in the country.
Chadians’ growing use of social media could prove a boon for the country’s political transition, but it could also fuel violence offline. With donor backing, authorities, civil society, online platforms and influencers should work to ensure social media remains a space for democratic debate rather than an accelerator of conflict.
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood speaks with Enrica Picco, Crisis Group’s Central Africa director, about the security forces’ crackdown on protesters in Chad last week, prospects for a return to civilian rule and whether more violence is likely.
In this video, Crisis Group’s Central Africa Project Director takes a look at what's happening in Chad and what can be done to avert further violence.
Enrica Picco, d’International Crisis Group, appelle le président de transition à nommer une commission d’enquête indépendante pour faire la lumière sur la répression des manifestations du 20 octobre.
Five months after President Idriss Déby’s sudden death, Chadian authorities are preparing a highly anticipated national dialogue. The country faces significant challenges as it charts a course to civilian rule.
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood and Naz Modirzadeh talk to Crisis Group experts Richard Moncrieff and Claudia Gazzini about the death of Chadian President Idriss Déby and its consequences for Chad and the region.
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