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Democratic Republic of Congo

A decade of relative stability is at risk from rising polarisation over the delayed organisation of elections and President Joseph Kabila’s determination to stay in power beyond his constitutional time limit in December 2016. Crisis Group is alerting policymakers to the threat of popular violence, harsh crackdowns by the security forces and the continued threats posed by existing and emerging armed groups. Through advocacy based on field-researched analysis of national and local political dynamics and regional diplomacy, we seek to persuade domestic rivals to compromise in their disputes, to create a consensus among stakeholders on a transition to credible elections, and to persuade African and Western powers to coordinate their efforts to end the Congolese crisis.

CrisisWatch Democratic Republic of Congo

Deteriorated Situation

Armed group Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) extended its reach into Ituri province in east, leaving over 60 civilians dead in area, and tensions rose between President Tshisekedi and allies of former President Kabila and within Tshisekedi’s alliance. ADF for first time launched attacks in Ituri province, leaving at least 63 civilians dead 2-26 Feb; ADF raids on villages in Beni territory, North Kivu province left at least 51 civilians dead 7-17 Feb. In Ituri, armed group Cooperative for Development of Congo (CODECO) attacks and clashes between CODECO and army 17-29 Feb left at least 34 civilians and seven rebels dead; armed group Patriotic and Integrationist Front of Congo (FPIC) and army 19 Feb clashed in Sezabo village, leaving ten dead; govt and armed group Front for Patriotic Resistance in Ituri (FRPI) 28 Feb signed peace agreement. In North Kivu, local Maï-Maï militia commander and some 300 fighters 2 Feb surrendered near Goma; militia Nduma Defense of Congo and Maï-Maï Nyatura 3 Feb clashed in Kitso area leaving seventeen dead; suspected Maï-Maï Nyatura 5-6 Feb killed three civilians in Butshimula area; unidentified gunmen 20 Feb killed at least six soldiers in Mwaro village. In South Kivu province, clashes between Maï-Maï and Gumino armed groups 17-18 Feb reportedly left three dead. In Tanganyika province, Twa militiamen 20-29 Feb killed four in Nyunzu town. Former military intelligence chief and close ally of Kabila, General Delphin Kahimbi, 28 Feb died in unclear circumstances after he was reportedly suspended from duty over allegations that he had sought to destabilise country; Tshisekedi same day called for investigation. Authorities 12 Feb briefly arrested Kabila’s former intelligence chief and prohibited him from leaving country for illegally travelling on diplomatic passport. Tshisekedi 7 Feb replaced seven senior magistrates including allies of Kabila. Head of Tshisekedi’s party Jean-Marc Kabund-a-Kabund 11 Feb accused Tshisekedi’s chief of staff and head of Union for the Congolese Nation, part of Tshisekedi’s alliance Heading for Change, of mismanaging 100-day emergency program launched in March 2019.

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Reports & Briefings

In The News

30 Jan 2020
[The Allied Democratic Forces in DR Congo] have a very brutal way of killing the civilians and they don’t differentiate. They kill women, children, men. The Irish Times

Nelleke van de Walle

Deputy Project Director, Central Africa
28 Jan 2019
[President of DR Congo] Tshisekedi's swearing-in is often sold as selling out democracy in favor of stability. But it’s pragmatic and based on developments on the ground. VICE

Hans Hoebeke

Former Senior Analyst, DR Congo
1 Feb 2018
The [DR Congo] regime wants to hold on to power, but does not have the legitimacy or the strength to push this through. IRIN

Hans Hoebeke

Former Senior Analyst, DR Congo
7 Dec 2017
We have a date [for DR Congo's presidential election], and it is technically feasible to organise [them] for the end of next year. Whether it is politically realistic is another question. Financial Mail

Hans Hoebeke

Former Senior Analyst, DR Congo
7 Dec 2017
There is evident concern of growing instability and a frustration [in DR Congo] at the political blockage that is fueling popular frustration and the spread of violence in the country. New Europe

Richard Moncrieff

Project Director, Central Africa
16 Jun 2017
[A statement by former African leaders could bridge] the gap between sitting African leaders, who are putting little pressure on Kabila, and the west, who are imposing sanctions and demanding an election. Financial Times

Hans Hoebeke

Former Senior Analyst, DR Congo

Latest Updates

Special Briefing / Global

Seven Opportunities for the UN in 2019-2020

The UN General Assembly kicks off on 17 September amid general scepticism about the world body’s effectiveness in an era of rising great-power competition. But the UN is far from paralysed. Here are seven crisis spots where it can make a positive difference for peace.

Q&A / Africa

Moïse Katumbi’s Return Portends Shifting Alliances in Congolese Politics

On 20 May prominent opposition leader and businessman Moïse Katumbi returned to the Democratic Republic of Congo from exile. In this Q&A, Crisis Group’s Deputy Project Director for Central Africa Nelleke van de Walle discusses the possible impact on Congolese politics, five months after Felix Tshisekedi’s controversial election as president.

Commentary / Africa

Eight Priorities for the African Union in 2019

In 2019, the African Union faces many challenges, with conflicts old and new simmering across the continent. To help resolve these crises – our annual survey lists seven particularly pressing ones – the regional organisation should also push ahead with institutional reforms.

Also available in Français
Statement / Africa

DR Congo: A Recount and Talks to Find a Way Out of the Crisis

The DR Congo is facing a major political crisis over the 30 December election’s result. A recount would allow subsequent negotiations to take place on the basis of a clear understanding of who won.

Statement / Africa

Need for International Unity as DR Congo Awaits Electoral Results

The Democratic Republic of Congo awaits the official results of 30 December 2018 elections, amid hints that unofficial numbers show an opposition presidential candidate winning. Conflicting tallies could spark violence. Outside powers should stand together in urging calm and careful verification of the electoral outcome.

Also available in Français