Getting Climate Security in Africa on the Agenda for COP27
Getting Climate Security in Africa on the Agenda for COP27
Report 1 / Africa

HIV/AIDS as a Security Issue

It is projected that, at current rates, more than 100 million people worldwide will have been infected with HIV by 2005. Where the epidemic has hit hardest, Sub-Saharan Africa, experts believe AIDS will eventually kill one in four adults.

Executive Summary

It is projected that, at current rates, more than 100 million people worldwide will have been infected with HIV by 2005. Where the epidemic has hit hardest, Sub-Saharan Africa, experts believe AIDS will eventually kill one in four adults. Seven countries already have adult prevalence rates above 20 per cent of the population.

Yet this pandemic may only be at its beginning. Infection rates are still rising in most African nations, and the strongest effects are only now beginning to be felt. Elsewhere, infection rates are rising at steep rates, in patterns disturbingly similar to those observed in Sub- Saharan Africa five to ten years ago.  HIV infections are believed to be doubling every year  in Russia and increasing rapidly across the Commonwealth of Independent States, India, China and Southeast Asia. For a growing number of states, AIDS can no longer be understood or responded to as primarily a public health crisis. It is becoming a threat to security.

ICG was founded to help prevent and end conflict in and between nations. But where it reaches epidemic proportions, HIV/AIDS can be so pervasive that it destroys the very fibre of what constitutes a nation: individuals, families and communities; economic and political institutions; military and police forces. It is likely then to have broader security  consequences, both for the nations under assault and for their neighbours, trading partners, and allies.

AIDS does not itself cause wars.  But it is a security issue in all the following ways:

AIDS is a personal security issue. As 5, 10, 20 per cent or more of adults become fatally ill, gains in health, longevity and infant mortality are wiped out. Agricultural production and  food supply become tenuous; families and communities break apart; and surviving young people cease to have a viable future. Divisions among ethnic and social groups may be exacerbated.  Economic migration and refugee seekers increase.

AIDS is an economic security issue. It threatens social and economic progress, worsening trends that we know contribute strongly to the potential for violent conflict and humanitarian catastrophe. A World Bank study suggests that even an adult prevalence rate of 10 per cent may reduce the growth of national income by up to a third.[fn]“The Business Response to HIV/AIDS: Impact and Lessons Learned,” Joint United Nations Program on HIV/AIDS, 2000.Hide Footnote  At infection levels above 20   per cent, studies show that a nation can expect a decline in GDP of 1 per cent per year.[fn]“HIV, TB and Malaria – Three Major Infectious Disease Threats,” WHO Backgrounder No. 1, July 2000.Hide Footnote

AIDS is a communal security issue. It directly affects police capability, and community stability more generally. It breaks down national institutions that govern society and provide public confidence that the people’s interests are being served. It strikes hardest at those  who are better-off and mobile, and thus often the educated – civil servants, teachers, health care professionals, police. In South Africa, as many as one in seven civil servants were thought to be HIV-positive in 1998.[fn]“AIDS Stalking Africa’s Struggling Economies,” New York Times, November 15, 1998.Hide Footnote

AIDS is a national security issue.  In Africa, many military forces have infection rates as  much as five times that of the civilian population. [fn]“AIDS and the Military,” UNAIDS, May 1998.Hide Footnote  The weaknesses it creates in militaries as well as in the pillars of economic growth and institutional endurance can make nations more vulnerable to both internal and external conflict.

AIDS is an international security issue. It poses a threat both by its potential to contribute to international security challenges, and by its ability to undermine international capacity to resolve conflicts. A military analyst with South Africa’s Institute of Strategic Studies has warned that unless the spread of AIDS among African armies is stopped soon, it is possible that many countries, including South Africa, will soon be unable to participate in peacekeeping operations.[fn]“Infected Troops Spread a Scourge Worse Than War,” San Jose Mercury News, April 8, 2001.
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Countries such as Uganda, Senegal and Thailand have succeeded in slowing and even reversing the rate of infection, keeping AIDS’ consequences at far lower levels than neighbouring countries. They have accomplished this through extensive education and prevention programs; by providing care and support; and above all by mobilizing national political leadership to stress that AIDS presents a challenge to the nation going far beyond  its health dimensions.

Over the past year, UNAIDS has worked with global health and economic experts to define a level of resources and structure that will ensure an effective worldwide response. UN Secretary General Kofi Annan has now called for a “war chest” with the support of World Bank President James Wolfensohn and others. A comprehensive response  will  require funding this commitment at $10 billion per year. This would include preventive measures  that could cut the rate of HIV prevalence among young people in Africa by 25 percent by 2005; life-extending antiretroviral therapy to 3 million people worldwide; and prophylaxis  and treatment for opportunistic infections for nearly 6 million more people with AIDS.[fn]Epidemic Update 2000, UNAIDS, December 2000, and Consensus Statement on Antiretroviral Treatment for AIDS in Poor Countries by 128 Members of the Harvard University Faculty, April 2001.
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The international community has the opportunity to mobilise the leadership and resources to meet this goal now, with the UN General Assembly Special Session on AIDS in late June 2001, and a meeting of the G-8 industrial powers slated to focus on HIV/AIDS in July 2001. With increased international attention to the disease, and infections in many countries rising fast but not yet out of control, this is a window of opportunity that the international community, donor and recipient nations, and the business community cannot afford to miss. But the history of the AIDS crisis tells us that window will not stay open long.

Washington/Brussels, 19 June 2001

Podcast / Africa

Getting Climate Security in Africa on the Agenda for COP27

This week on The Horn, Alan hosts a roundtable discussion with Nazanine Moshiri, Robert Muthami and Hafsa Maalim on the important role of African leadership in addressing the impact of climate change and climate security on the continent ahead of this year’s COP27 in Egypt. 

COP27 will be hosted on the African continent this year and presents a unique opportunity to bring more attention to the already devastating impact of climate change on African countries. While the Global North is producing the majority of emissions driving climate change, its fallout is disproportionately felt in the Global South. Meanwhile, the potential links between climate change as a potential driver for conflict remain largely neglected. To prevent and mitigate climate-induced crises and security risks on the continent, closer cooperation between African leaders and the international community is becoming increasingly urgent.

This week on The Horn, Alan hosts a roundtable with Nazanine Moshiri, Crisis Group’s senior analyst for climate and security in Africa, Robert Muthami, climate change policy expert at the Friedrich Ebert Stiftung in Kenya, and Hafsa Maalim, an associate senior researcher with SIPRI, on how African leadership can shape the agenda of this year’s COP27. They discuss the ways in which African leaders and civil society actors take action to mitigate the impact of climate change on the continent and how the international community, particularly the Global North, can help them tackle these challenges. They also address the importance of placing climate-induced security risks higher on the agenda in the COP27 negotiations and highlight the ways in which climate change can potentially drive and shape conflict in African countries.

This episode of The Horn is produced in partnership with the Friedrich Ebert Stiftung.

Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify

You can find out latest publications on climate change and conflict on our COP27 page. For more about this topic, make sure to also check out Crisis Group’s Future of Conflict Program page.


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