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Horn of Africa

CrisisWatch Horn of Africa

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, a tool designed to help decision-makers prevent deadly violence by keeping them up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace.

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Trends for Last Month April 2019

Deteriorated Situations

SomaliaSudan

Improved Situations

none

Outlook for This Month May 2019

Conflict Risk Alerts

SomaliaSouth Sudan

Resolution Opportunities

none

President's Take

Proxies and Manipulators Vex More and More Wars

Contributor

President & CEO
Rob_Malley

In his introduction to this month's edition of CrisisWatch, Crisis Group's conflict tracker, our President Robert Malley reflects on Sudan, Libya and Venezuela, and how fear and exploitation are increasingly complicating conflict prevention efforts.

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Reports & Briefings

In The News

24 Apr 2019
Until Salva Kiir and Riek Machar strike more deals on a path forward, the peace deal will keep spinning its wheels. In six months, South Sudan may be stuck in the same spot. Bloomberg

Alan Boswell

Senior Analyst, South Sudan
15 Apr 2019
What is clear is that there has not been a clear break from the old [Sudanese] regime. And what we know is that what the military says and what the military does can be quite different. NPR

Murithi Mutiga

Project Director, Horn of Africa
12 Apr 2019
More clearly than ever, it is now up to Kiir and Machar if they want to move the peace deal [for South Sudan] forward. Washington Post

Alan Boswell

Senior Analyst, South Sudan
7 Apr 2019
The scale of protests on Saturday [in Sudan] illustrate that Bashir's gamble that he can save his regime through repression is proving to be a losing bet. AFP

Murithi Mutiga

Project Director, Horn of Africa
13 Mar 2019
The [South Sudan] peace agreement is stalling and is at risk of collapse if more political deals aren’t struck. Reuters

Alan Boswell

Senior Analyst, South Sudan
11 Mar 2019
[The U.S. war in Somalia appears to be] on autopilot [and] people need to pay attention. New York Times

Brittany Brown

Chief of Staff

Latest Updates

Report / Africa

Salvaging South Sudan’s Fragile Peace Deal

The truce in South Sudan is holding but could break down at any time. To stave off renewed civil war, external actors should urge the belligerents to strike new bargains on security and internal boundaries – and accept a third-party protection force for the capital.

Statement / Africa

Bashir Moves Sudan to Dangerous New Ground

Faced with the most serious protests against his 30-year rule, President Omar al-Bashir’s declaration of a state of emergency will not save his bankrupt, unpopular regime. Instead, security forces must halt worsening violence, Bashir should step down and all sides should work on a broadly inclusive transitional government.

Report / Africa

Managing Ethiopia’s Unsettled Transition

Ethiopia’s charismatic new prime minister, Abiy Ahmed, has generated great excitement with initiatives breaking with the past. But he faces challenges as formidable as his promises are bold: he urgently needs to halt communal strife, smooth the road to elections and boost the ailing economy.

Commentary / Africa

Eight Priorities for the African Union in 2019

In 2019, the African Union faces many challenges, with conflicts old and new simmering across the continent. To help resolve these crises – our annual survey lists seven particularly pressing ones – the regional organisation should also push ahead with institutional reforms.

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Commentary / Africa

Bolstering South Sudan’s Peace Deal

Amid growing regional unrest, a fragile peace deal brokered between the warring parties in South Sudan has not won a broader political settlement. In this excerpt from our Watch List 2019 for European policymakers, Crisis Group advises the EU to take a lead in negotiations and put conditions on its monitoring of the agreement.

Our People

Abdullahi Abdille

Researcher, Horn of Africa
a_abdille

Grace Njuguna

Office Manager, Horn of Africa

Zakaria Yusuf

Analyst, Somalia

Murithi Mutiga

Project Director, Horn of Africa
mutigam

Idil Farah

Analyst, Somalia
IdilayBilan

Alan Boswell

Senior Analyst, South Sudan
alanboswell

William Davison

Senior Analyst, Ethiopia
wdavison10