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Ethiopia and Eritrea: War or Peace?
Ethiopia and Eritrea: War or Peace?
Table of Contents
  1. Executive Summary
Crisis Group Congratulates Ethiopian Prime Minister on 2019 Nobel Peace Prize
Crisis Group Congratulates Ethiopian Prime Minister on 2019 Nobel Peace Prize
Report 68 / Africa

Ethiopia and Eritrea: War or Peace?

The next few weeks will go far to determining whether Ethiopia and Eritrea resume a path toward war – which took some 100,000 lives between 1998 and 2000 – or solidify their peace agreement.

Executive Summary

The next few weeks will go far to determining whether Ethiopia and Eritrea resume a path toward war – which took some 100,000 lives between 1998 and 2000 – or solidify their peace agreement. Ethiopia must decide whether to allow demarcation of the border to begin in October 2003 even though the international Boundary Commission set up under the Algiers agreement that ended the fighting has ruled that the town of Badme – the original flashpoint of the war – is on the Eritrean side. The outcome will have profound implications for both countries and the entire Horn of Africa, as well as for international law and the sanctity of binding peace agreements and arbitration processes. The international community, particularly the U.S., the African Union (AU), and the European Union (EU), all of which played major roles in brokering the Algiers agreement, need to engage urgently to help Ethiopia move the demarcation forward and to assist both parties to devise a package of measures that can reduce the humanitarian costs of border adjustments and otherwise make implementation of the demarcation more politically palatable.

The two warring states agreed at Algiers to establish the Boundary Commission and accept its judgement as final and binding. The Commission made its ruling in April 2002. After a series of technical and political delays caused largely by Ethiopia’s objections, in particular to the disposition of Badme, it announced in July 2003 that physical demarcation on the ground should begin in October. On 12 September, the UN Security Council extended the mandate of the United Nations Mission in Ethiopia and Eritrea (UNMEE), which monitors the border, and called on both parties to fulfil their commitments under the Algiers agreement by creating “the necessary conditions for demarcation to proceed, including the appointment of field liaison officers”, providing security for the demarcation process, and pursuing political dialogue.

The governments of both Ethiopia and Eritrea face harder line elements that believe too much has already been given away in the peace process and are unwilling to countenance further flexibility. Many Ethiopians are determined not to cede any territory to Eritrea after having allowed its independence. The most potent mobilising factor for Eritreans is the threat of encroachment by Ethiopia on their hard-won sovereignty. For Ethiopians who opposed Eritrean independence, the threatened loss of Badme is emblematic of the loss of Eritrea, while for many Eritreans the fate of that town of 5,000 cannot be separated from their worry that Ethiopia may one day try to regain access to the sea. For both sides, losing Badme would make the sacrifices of the 1998-2000 conflict much harder to justify.

While neither Ethiopia nor Eritrea wants to return to combat, incidents of isolated violence have been occurring with increasing frequency along the border, as have reports of incursions by troops into the neutral zone. There is no real dialogue between the parties. Each views the other’s government as decaying and its military as weak and unprepared. Each supports elements of the other’s opposition, and, perhaps most dangerously, underestimates the will of the other to hold together if there is a new military confrontation. All these are attitudes eerily similar to those that prevailed prior to and during the war.

The integrity of the peace agreement is on the brink of being compromised. Despite its renewal of the UNMEE mandate and its correct insistence that the agreement be implemented immediately and without renegotiation, the UN Security Council remains relatively unengaged and preoccupied with other responsibilities. Washington, which negotiated the agreement in tandem with the AU, has largely ignored the issue, despite its interest in regional stability. The AU has remained largely silent as well.

The international community cannot afford to look away and hope for the best, however. Vigorous diplomacy is needed now. While the parties should not be permitted to deviate from implementing a Boundary Commission decision that both agreed would be “final and binding”, creative solutions can be found to make implementation more politically acceptable by reducing the security and humanitarian impacts while demarcation proceeds. These diplomatic efforts should not be the prerequisite for implementation. But an early demonstration that the international community is serious about finding ways to soften the losses perceived by both parties would be a positive inducement for constructive action. Timing is important since an Ethiopian decision not to cooperate with the October schedule could set in motion a rapid deterioration of the situation, and a small incident – whether unplanned or provoked by either side – could easily escalate out of control.

Nairobi/Brussels, 24 September 2003

In this file photo taken on April 11, 2018 Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed waves during his rally in Ambo, Ethiopia. Ahmed was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for his efforts to resolve his country's conflict with bitter foe Eritrea. Zacharias Abubeker / AFP
Statement / Africa

Crisis Group Congratulates Ethiopian Prime Minister on 2019 Nobel Peace Prize

Crisis Group offers its warm congratulations to Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed for his receipt of the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize.

Prime Minister Abiy's bold leadership has brought positive change abroad and at home. His outreach to Eritrea paved the way for a remarkable rapprochement between the two countries. Much is still to be done, particularly in resolving border disputes and winning over constituencies within Ethiopia that are suspicious of building ties with Asmara. But the steps initiated by Prime Minister Abiy have opened new opportunities for cooperation and stability in the region.

Abiy’s reforms at home have been as significant. Since coming to office in April 2018, he has promoted reconciliation, overhauled Ethiopia’s federal security apparatus, condemned the government’s past abuses, continued the release of political prisoners, invited exiled dissidents back home and promised more open politics. Again, challenges remain: mounting intercommunal tensions and destabilising division within the ruling coalition are acute concerns. Nonetheless, Abiy’s premiership has brought millions of Ethiopians hope of a brighter future.

Crisis Group’s president Robert Malley said: “I wholeheartedly congratulate Prime Minister Abiy, whose efforts to turn the page on his country’s long animosity with Eritrea and on his own country’s internal governance have brought new hope. There is of course much work to be done, both in normalising relations with Eritrea and in combating centrifugal forces in Ethiopia. Abiy will need all the support he can get from Ethiopians and the outside world. But the Nobel award should be a source of enormous pride for the country”.

Comfort Ero, Crisis Group’s Africa director, said: “The award is a recognition of everything Prime Minister Abiy has done since coming to office. It should inspire renewed efforts to bring security and prosperity to the continent.”