Join Alan Boswell and his guests for Season 2 of The Horn podcast.

Podcast / Africa 26 January 2021

Somalia's Election Crisis

This week on The Horn, Crisis Group’s Somalia expert Omar Mahmood joins Alan Boswell to assess the likelihood of disorder once President Farmajo’s mandate ends on February 8 and the urgency of renewed consensus on an extended process for new elections.

With President Farmajo’s mandate due to end in just two weeks and little consensus on the way forward, a delay in Somalia’s high-stakes elections appears inevitable.

Back with Alan to explain why a mid-September agreement on electoral changes has unravelled is Omar Mahmood, Crisis Group’s senior analyst for Somalia. Together they chart the various scenarios the country could be headed toward, taking into account the major issues fuelling tensions between Farmajo, regional states and political opposition.

To steer clear of contestation and resulting unrest further down the line, Omar underlines the need for renewed agreement between the parties on a realistic electoral timeline. He tells Alan that failure to establish a framework for political order in Somalia after 8 February could heighten clan-based grievances, the risks of Al-Shabaab violence and new involvement of regional actors.

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For more information, visit our Somalia page.