Since fighting erupted in Juba in July 2016 and a major rebel faction returned to war, rebel groups have proliferated though conflict is much reduced from its height in 2014. The government’s current strategy can secure Juba but cannot deliver sustainable nationwide peace. Of the millions experiencing hunger due to the conflict’s impact on civilians, the UN declared 100,000 in famine conditions for several months in 2017. Through field-based research and engagement with relevant national, regional and international actors, Crisis Group aims to support humanitarian access and build a new consensus around sustainable peace efforts that address the regionalised nature of the conflict as well as its localised dynamics.
Side deals between President Salva Kiir and renegade opposition leaders jeopardise the 2018 agreement that ended the worst fighting of South Sudan’s civil war. East African mediators should press the principal combatants – Kiir and Riek Machar – to restart talks on the issues that divide them.
Controversial proposal to extend coalition govt’s time in power beyond Feb 2023 ratcheted up political tensions; violence continued in multiple areas. Media outlets late July reported President Kiir and VP Machar around 26 July agreed to extend their time in power for 24 months after end of 2018 peace deal’s transitional period in Feb 2023. Earlier in month, after senior Kiir allies 15 July submitted draft roadmap detailing extension plan to complete peace agreement’s implementation, Machar’s Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army-In Opposition (SPLM/A-IO), civil society actors and other political leaders criticised lack of deliberation and called for more inclusive process to define way ahead. Dissident Gen Stephen Buay Rolnyang 9 July called to replace Kiir and Machar through violence, while holdout opposition leaders Thomas Cirillo and Paul Malong, Pagan Amum and others 15 July announced broader opposition alliance. U.S. 15 July confirmed withdrawing funding to peace-monitoring bodies, citing a lack of progress on peace deal provisions. Meanwhile, South Sudan People’s Movement/Army (SSPM/A) led by Gen Stephen Buay Rolnyang late July engaged in hostilities in Mayom county, Unity state, with over 30 fatalities recorded; notably, group 22 July killed Mayom county commissioner, 26 July attacked South Sudan People’s Defense Forces (SSDPF) reinforcement convoy. Violence flared in Eastern Equatoria state when suspected ethnic Murle, Tennet and Buya gunmen 7 July launched cattle raid in Kapoeta North County; county commissioner 11 July claimed about 235 people killed, but figure likely exaggerated. Also in Eastern Equatoria, armed men 11 July shot dead chief of Madi ethnic group in Nimule city (Magwi county), prompting locals to accuse Dinka Bor cattle keepers. Kitgwang faction, which split from Machar’s SPLM/A-IO in 2021, split again when its deputy leader, Gen Johnson Olony, 12 July attempted to replace Gen Simon Gatwech as faction leader; internal tensions mid- to late July led to clashes in Magenis area (Upper Nile state), Pieri town (Jonglei state) and Panyikang county (Upper Nile state), while political cadres and military commanders met in Khartoum to contain crisis. Meanwhile, controversy persisted over dredging of Nile tributaries. In response to public outcry against initiative, Kiir 11 July halted dredging activities until further environmental assessments are completed.
Upon South Sudan’s independence in 2011, many hoped the country’s oil wealth would help build the state and lift citizens out of poverty. Instead, politicians have shunted these revenues toward patronage and personal enrichment, feeding internal conflict. Transparency and accountability are badly needed.
A rebellion in Equatoria, South Sudan’s southernmost region, is undermining the already troubled peace between the main belligerents in its civil war. Mediators should push for a wider compact that accommodates Equatorian grievances and includes the insurgent general in talks about the country’s political future.
Ten years after independence, South Sudan is faring poorly, beleaguered by political and socio-economic ills. The civil war’s two main antagonists have an uneasy peace, but others fight on. The country needs a reset rooted in power sharing and devolution of authority from the centre.
South Sudan’s conflict parties are supposed to form a unity government by 12 November. But key disputes between them remain unresolved. External actors should push the adversaries to make progress on these matters before entering any power-sharing arrangement – lest war erupt once more.
The truce in South Sudan is holding but could break down at any time. To stave off renewed civil war, external actors should urge the belligerents to strike new bargains on security and internal boundaries – and accept a third-party protection force for the capital.
There is still no sign of a broader reset in South Sudanese politics [...] instead, the divisions just keep mounting.
[South Sudan] is just, unfortunately, in a much worse spot than it was 10 years ago. Whenever I talk with various diplomats from different countries [...] they all fear cutting humanitarian aid to South Sudan would just cause more misery. Both the South Sudanese and the outside world feel a bit stuck at the moment.
Disarmament in South Sudan resembles an abusive counterinsurgency operation, not an orderly collection of arms, which the local militias often resist giving up.
The disagreement between Kiir and Machar has endangered the gains made toward a lasting peace.
"[South Sudan president Kiir and former rebel leader Machar] still have much to work through, but Machar was unlikely to extract more significant concessions before forming the government.
[In South Sudan] the dispute over the configuration of states became a major impasse blocking the peace process from moving towards a unity government.
This week on The Horn, Alan Boswell welcomes Dr. Luka Biong Deng Kuol, a South Sudanese former minister and academic, to reflect on South Sudan’s trajectory since achieving independence ten years ago and whether it can still change course toward a more stable future.
The world's youngest country needs an overhaul, Crisis Group Interim Vice President and Africa Program Director Comfort Ero and South Sudan Senior Analyst Alan Boswell write in Foreign Affairs.
Originally published in Foreign Affairs
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood and Naz Modirzadeh talk to Alan Boswell, senior analyst for South Sudan, for an in-depth look at South Sudanese statehood ten years after independence.
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