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South Sudan

Since fighting erupted in Juba in July 2016 and a major rebel faction returned to war, rebel groups have proliferated though conflict is much reduced from its height in 2014. The government’s current strategy can secure Juba but cannot deliver sustainable nationwide peace. Of the millions experiencing hunger due to the conflict’s impact on civilians, the UN declared 100,000 in famine conditions for several months in 2017. Through field-based research and engagement with relevant national, regional and international actors, Crisis Group aims to support humanitarian access and build a new consensus around sustainable peace efforts that address the regionalised nature of the conflict as well as its localised dynamics.

CrisisWatch South Sudan

Improved Situation

In major breakthrough, President Kiir and main rebel leader Riek Machar struck deal entailing significant concessions on both sides and formed unity govt, alleviating fears that failure to reach deal by 22 Feb deadline would spark violence. In meeting brokered by regional bloc Intergovernmental Authority on Development, Sudanese PM Hamdok and Ugandan President Museveni in Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa 9 Feb, Kiir and Machar discussed number and borders of states, main stumbling block in negotiations to form govt. To break deadlock, Kiir 15 Feb acceded to opposition’s request to reduce number of states from 32 to ten, but proposed three new administrative areas, which Machar rejected. Machar and Kiir 17 Feb held new round of talks in capital Juba, including on security arrangements. Under rising international pressure to reach compromise, Kiir 20 Feb struck agreement with Machar’s Sudan People’s Liberation Army-In-Opposition and South Sudan Opposition Alliance to form unity govt; 22 Feb swore in Machar as first VP, to be protected by presidential guard brigade until unified army is formed. Unification of govt troops and rebel forces into national army, scheduled under Sept 2018 peace agreement to be completed prior to forming unity govt, remained behind schedule. Negotiations between govt and opposition coalition, South Sudan Opposition Movements Alliance (SSOMA), which refused to be part of Sept 2018 deal, resumed in Rome, Italy, 12-13 Feb; SSOMA 14 Feb signed resolution outlining implementation and monitoring of truce brokered in Jan; next round of talks set for March. SSOMA 24 Feb called for peace talks with newly created unity govt.

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Reports & Briefings

In The News

20 Feb 2020
"[South Sudan president Kiir and former rebel leader Machar] still have much to work through, but Machar was unlikely to extract more significant concessions before forming the government. Reuters

Alan Boswell

Senior Analyst, South Sudan
16 Feb 2020
[In South Sudan] the dispute over the configuration of states became a major impasse blocking the peace process from moving towards a unity government. Al Jazeera

Alan Boswell

Senior Analyst, South Sudan
13 Jan 2020
The U.S. has gone from South Sudan’s chief backer to its main naysayer. Wall Street Journal

Alan Boswell

Senior Analyst, South Sudan
17 Dec 2019
The intensity of the violence shows just how great South Sudan’s challenges remain even in a best-case scenario of the national peace process solidifying. Bloomberg

Alan Boswell

Senior Analyst, South Sudan
24 Oct 2019
The South Sudan peace process is at serious risk of derailing following the UNSC visit to Juba. The strategy to simply pressure on Nov 12 deadline has already failed. It’s time to pivot. Twitter

Alan Boswell

Senior Analyst, South Sudan
24 Apr 2019
Until Salva Kiir and Riek Machar strike more deals on a path forward, the peace deal will keep spinning its wheels. In six months, South Sudan may be stuck in the same spot. Bloomberg

Alan Boswell

Senior Analyst, South Sudan

Latest Updates

Video / Africa

Video - A Short Window to Resuscitate South Sudan’s Ailing Peace Deal

Crisis Group's Senior Analyst for South Sudan Alan Boswell recounts what he found during his recent field trip to South Sudan.

Briefing / Africa

Déjà Vu: Preventing Another Collapse in South Sudan

South Sudan’s conflict parties are supposed to form a unity government by 12 November. But key disputes between them remain unresolved. External actors should push the adversaries to make progress on these matters before entering any power-sharing arrangement – lest war erupt once more.

Statement / Africa

A Critical Six Months for South Sudan

South Sudan’s rival parties have temporarily salvaged prospects for peace, agreeing a six-month deadline extension to allow for the formation of a unity government. But the country’s external partners must sustain pressure on both sides to preserve a ceasefire and maintain consensus on a path forward.

Report / Africa

Salvaging South Sudan’s Fragile Peace Deal

The truce in South Sudan is holding but could break down at any time. To stave off renewed civil war, external actors should urge the belligerents to strike new bargains on security and internal boundaries – and accept a third-party protection force for the capital.

Commentary / Africa

Eight Priorities for the African Union in 2019

In 2019, the African Union faces many challenges, with conflicts old and new simmering across the continent. To help resolve these crises – our annual survey lists seven particularly pressing ones – the regional organisation should also push ahead with institutional reforms.

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Alan Boswell

Senior Analyst, South Sudan
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