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President Yoweri Museveni’s growing authoritarianism and the country’s weak institutions are multiplying Uganda’s challenges. Conflict risks at the local level are rising due to uncertain political succession, economic stagnation, a youth bulge and an influx of refugees from South Sudan. The state’s repression of political opposition and its increasing reliance on security responses to political problems is fostering discontent in politically and economically marginalised communities. Through field research in Kampala and conflict-affected areas, Crisis Group works to reduce the likelihood of local tensions escalating into violence. We indicate how Ugandan policymakers can embark on a process of democratic transition in order to reduce the risk of discontent turning into political instability, protest and violence.

CrisisWatch Uganda

Unchanged Situation

President Museveni and Rwandan President Kagame signed agreement to normalise relations, as govt continued to crack down on opposition. Museveni and Kagame 21 Aug signed agreement in Angolan capital Luanda committing to improve relations. Uganda 22 Aug blocked access to Rwandan news sites citing national security concerns, Rwanda next day blocked Ugandan news sites; Rwanda later that day said both governments had agreed to restore access. Court 2 Aug sentenced prominent academic to eighteen months’ prison for criticising Museveni, she has already served nine months. Musician-turned-opposition leader Bobi Wine 6 Aug appeared in court on treason charge for alleged involvement in stoning of Museveni’s motorcade during election rally in 2018; court charged Bobi Wine with intention to “annoy, alarm or ridicule” Museveni.

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Reports & Briefings

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Op-Ed / Africa

Bit by Bit, Uganda Is Laying the Groundwork for Future Unrest

Economically and politically, Uganda's government’s actions are leading to growing frustrations and lawlessness.

Originally published in African Arguments

Op-Ed / Africa

It’s in Uganda’s Interest to Keep Supporting South Sudan Peace Efforts

President Museveni will naturally defend Uganda’s short-term interests, but he should also work towards longer-term stability by supporting President Salva Kiir’s pledge to bring peace through ARCSS implementation, negotiations and national dialogue.

Originally published in Daily Monitor

Op-Ed / Africa

Uganda: An Opposition is Born

Originally published in The Africa Report