While in decline in the Levant, the Islamic State has claimed some gains in Africa. Testimonies from defectors who once waged jihad in the Lake Chad basin shed new light on the impact and workings of the “caliphate” south of the Sahara.
In his introduction to this month’s edition of CrisisWatch, Crisis Group's President Robert Malley reflects on the once-unimaginable scenes that unfolded in the U.S. Capitol last night, as a mob violently stormed the building. He also explains how we choose our ten conflicts to watch each year.
Le scrutin présidentiel prévu pour le 31 octobre en Côte d’Ivoire suscite de nouvelles violences, dans un pays marqué par de profonds clivages politiques. Pour que ces élections se tiennent dans le calme, les différents acteurs politiques ivoiriens, accompagnés par des institutions régionales et continentales, devraient s’accorder sur un court report du scrutin.
With the Multinational Joint Task Force, the Lake Chad basin states are combining efforts to defeat jihadist elements that endanger them all. It has won some victories but militants have recovered. To keep progressing, and secure more funds, the four armies should deepen their cooperation.
Insecurity is plaguing north-western Nigeria, due to persistent herder-farmer tensions, rising crime and infiltration by Islamist militants. Federal and state authorities should focus on resolving conflict between agrarian and pastoralist communities, through dialogue and resource-sharing agreements, while also stepping up law enforcement.
Face à la percée jihadiste au Burkina Faso, porte ouverte sur les pays du Golfe de Guinée, ceux-ci craignent des attaques sur leurs territoires. Les Etats de la région devraient améliorer le partage du renseignement, renforcer les contrôles aux frontières et renouer un lien de confiance avec la population.
Women are streaming home from Boko Haram’s domain in north-eastern Nigeria, some having escaped captivity and others having left jihadist husbands behind. The state should safeguard these women from abuse, so that they stay in government-held areas and encourage men to come back as well.
Three years after Boko Haram broke apart, one faction, the Islamic State in West Africa Province, is forming a proto-state in northern Nigeria. The state should press its military offensive against the jihadists but also try undercutting their appeal by improving governance and public services.
[Ivorian Vice President] Duncan's resignation was most probably also a result of a failure to reach an agreement with President Alassane Ouattara on a presidential candidacy.
This year, more civilians in the Sahel have been killed by government soldiers than by jihadists. The coastal states must avoid the mistakes of their Sahelian neighbours.
[Ouattara] has always been a unanimous choice within his own camp. But [running again] would be extremely dangerous, particularly vis-a-vis the opposition, which would find a common enemy.
Massive unemployment [in Nigeria] has created a growing army of unemployed youth, vulnerable to recruitment in the criminal industry.
Stakes are high for Nigeria and the region. A vote marred in controversy and violence inevitably would hinder efforts to address the country’s security and economic challenges.
While ending the insurgency and countering the militants’ appeal is obviously vital, it is also essential to recognise what precisely has guided women to join [Boko Haram] in the first place.
Côte d’Ivoire’s presidential election, scheduled for October, risks heightening the country’s deep-rooted political tensions. In this excerpt from the Spring Edition of our Watch List 2020 for European policymakers, Crisis Group urges the EU and its member states to push for dialogue between the ruling party and the opposition and develop tangible structures for electoral observation.