Originally published in Daily Trust
Originally published in Lawfare
Vigilantes have become so important to protecting the Nigerian public that for now the country has little choice but to rely on them. Yet there are dangers. Authorities should better regulate these groups, while working to restore citizens’ trust in the police.
An ISIS franchise is tightening its hold on parts of north-eastern Nigeria near Lake Chad. Abuja should enhance its containment strategy, helping rival militants surrender, protecting internally displaced persons and working with neighbouring countries to cut off outside material support for the jihadists.
Nigeria’s latest plan for curbing herder-farmer conflict is facing obstacles, including staff and funding shortages as well as political opposition. If this initiative fails, there could be more rural violence. Abuja should work with donors to raise both money and awareness of the scheme’s benefits.
Le scrutin présidentiel prévu pour le 31 octobre en Côte d’Ivoire suscite de nouvelles violences, dans un pays marqué par de profonds clivages politiques. Pour que ces élections se tiennent dans le calme, les différents acteurs politiques ivoiriens, accompagnés par des institutions régionales et continentales, devraient s’accorder sur un court report du scrutin.
If France is to withdraw [from the Sahel] in a drastic manner as the U.S. did [from Afghanistan], the balance of power is likely to shift in favor of the jihadists.
The persistent targeting of schools in [Kaduna] suggests the armed groups may be trying to break the state government’s resolve not to pay ransom to criminal groups.
The economic trend [in Algeria] is extremely negative, there is a liquidity crisis at banks and local companies. In construction, the biggest sector after oil, there has been a record number of bankruptcies. The country could be heading towards economic disaster with a heavy social cost.
The [Nigerian] military [has] yet to achieve decisive results against the insurgents in the northeast and various armed groups in the northwest.
Les gouverneurs locaux [au Nigéria] insistent pour dire qu’aucune rançon n’a jamais été versée, mais c’est très difficile à croire.
[Ivorian Vice President] Duncan's resignation was most probably also a result of a failure to reach an agreement with President Alassane Ouattara on a presidential candidacy.
Renversé le 5 septembre, le président Condé, par son entêtement à conserver le pouvoir, avait préparé le terrain à la prise de contrôle militaire. Dans ce Q&A, les experts de Crisis Group, Vincent Foucher et Rinaldo Depagne, alertent sur une tendance inquiétante en Afrique de l’Ouest qu’illustre ce nouveau coup d’Etat.
Acquitté le 31 mars 2021 par la Cour pénale internationale, l’ancien président Laurent Gbagbo est libre de retourner en Côte d’Ivoire. Dans ce Q&A, l’expert de Crisis Group Wendyam Hervé Lankoandé analyse les enjeux et les conditions de ce retour, prévu le 17 juin.
Originally published in The Africa Report
Nigeria’s North West is sliding deeper into crisis. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2021 – Spring Update, Crisis Group urges the EU and its member states to assist Nigeria to bolster its security presence in the North West, spend more on immediate humanitarian aid to hundreds of thousands of displaced persons and foster local dialogues among herding and farming communities.
Every year Crisis Group publishes two additional Watch List updates that complement its annual Watch List for the EU, most recently published in January 2021. These publications identify major crises and conflict situations where the European Union and its member states can generate stronger prospects for peace. The Spring Update of the Watch List 2021 includes entries on Bolivia, Myanmar, Nigeria, Ukraine and Yemen.