Tracking Conflict Worldwide

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CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Outlook for This Month April 2016

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Trends for Last Month March 2016

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Conflict in Focus

The month saw violent extremist movements, including the Islamic State (IS) and al-Qaeda-linked groups, carry out major deadly attacks in Turkey, Pakistan, Côte d’Ivoire, Tunisia and Belgium. In Libya, the arrival of Prime Minister Serraj in Tripoli despite warnings from multiple factions could lead to further destabilisation. Meanwhile in Central Africa, political violence rose in Burundi and could break out in Chad around the 10 April presidential election. Yemen, South Sudan and even Syria saw progress, of varying degrees, toward peace talks or implementation of agreements, and in Colombia the start of talks between the state and the National Liberation Army (ELN) could lead to the end of the 52-year-old conflict.

CrisisWatch Digests

In Libya, international recognition of the new UN-backed Government of National Accord without support from military factions or the Tobruk-based House of Representatives worsened tensions in an already fragmented security landscape, and Prime Minister Serraj’s arrival in Tripoli on 30 March could trigger worse violence in April. Meanwhile, an IS branch is reportedly gaining strength. To prevent further splintering of Libya’s armed groups and ensure that political and security developments support a negotiated peace, Crisis Group has called for a nationwide security track dialogue in parallel with the UN-guided political track. In Tunisia, at least 50 IS militants stormed Ben Guerdane, 30km from the Libyan border on 7 March, attempting to overwhelm key security installations.

In Turkey, a car bomb attack on 13 March in Ankara saw 38 killed including two assailants. The Kurdistan Freedom Falcons (TAK), an ultra-radical Kurdish nationalist offshoot of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), claimed responsibility, saying it was an act of revenge for ongoing security operations against the PKK in south-eastern urban centres. As Crisis Group has long argued, the only way toward a durable solution is peace talks with the PKK alongside ensuring further democratic rights for Turkey’s Kurdish population.

Elsewhere, violent extremist movements carried out major deadly attacks. In Pakistan, over 70 people were killed in a suicide bombing claimed by the Pakistani Taliban faction Jamaat-ul-Ahrar (JA) in Lahore on 27 March. In Belgium 32 people were killed by two IS-linked suicide bomb attacks at the main airport and on the Brussels metro on 22 March, while in Côte d’Ivoire on 13 March gunmen shot dead sixteen civilians in Grand-Bassam, 40km east of Abidjan, in an unprecedented terrorist attack claimed by al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM). Crisis Group’s Special Report Exploiting Disorder: al-Qaeda and the Islamic State examines how such extremist movements benefit from today’s deadliest crises and complicate efforts to end them.

In Burundi, political violence worsened while international pressure on President Nkurunziza failed to stop government repression. There were deadly attacks on three officials including two from the ruling party and the assassination of two high-ranking army officers on the same day, pointing to dangerous divisions in the military. According to the UN, 474 people have been killed in political violence since April 2015, and over 250,000 Burundians have fled to neighbouring states. In Chad, mounting protests against President Déby’s regime and government repression could lead to serious political violence around the presidential election, scheduled for 10 April. Meanwhile, tensions between Morocco and the UN spiked after UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon referred to the “occupation” of Western Sahara during a visit to the region in early March.

In Syria, Russia’s announcement that it would withdraw the “main part” of its assets that have conducted operations in the country since September 2015 strengthened the ongoing UN-brokered talks, which resumed on 14 March in Geneva. Since the “cessation of hostilities” that began on 27 February violence has decreased considerably, according to local sources, with the lowest monthly civilian death toll in four years. Meanwhile, in Yemen, the agreement between Saudi Arabia and the Huthis to halt hostilities along the Yemen-Saudi Arabia border in early March paved the way for commitments to a wider ceasefire and peace talks to start in April. Fighting continued, nevertheless, including between government forces and al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) in Aden and IS-linked attacks in the south.

In South Sudan, amid a decline in fighting, April could see significant progress toward the formation of a transitional government of national unity, bringing the country a step closer toward implementation of the August 2015 peace deal. In Colombia, in a welcome step, the government and the National Liberation Army (ELN) announced on 30 March the opening of formal peace talks which, together with those nearing completion with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) in Havana, are the greatest opportunity to end 52 years of armed conflict.

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Clashes in Cabinda escalated between Front for the Liberation of the Cabinda Enclave (FLEC) and govt forces (FAA): FLEC 12 March reportedly ambushed FAA patrol between Dinge and Inhuca, leaving 29 FAA killed; 13 March reportedly ambushed FAA convoy between Quissoqui and Caio Tembo, ten FAA and three FLEC killed; 16 March ambushed FAA patrol between Boma Lubinda and Chivovo, seven FAA killed. FLEC 29 Feb reported killing four FAA soldiers near Micuma, Buco-Zau region. FLEC 22 March called all “Western expatriates” to leave Cabinda. President Dos Santos, in power since 1979, 11 March announced he would retire from politics in 2018, generating speculation over succession. Court 28 March jailed seventeen activists for “acts of rebellion” with sentences ranging from two to over eight years.

Burkina Faso

Security incidents involving Koglweogo vigilante groups reported throughout month. Authorities 10 March arrested nine Koglweogo around eastern Fada N’Gourma, 16 March charged them with torturing alleged cattle thief: in response hundreds of Koglweogo blocked roads in and around Fada city and demanded govt release detainees; showdown ended with Koglweogo giving up demands. Govt upped regional counter-terrorism efforts, including with joint operation with Malian forces along border 22 Feb-6 March; G5 Sahel group (Burkina Faso, Mauritania, Mali, Niger and Chad) 4 March recommended each member create rapid intervention forces.


Violence increased while govt, under international pressure, made cosmetic concessions to opposition but continued repression. Gunmen killed three officials during month including two from ruling party; two army officers also shot dead 22 March in separate incidents in Bujumbura. New wave of army defections 24 March. One soldier died in Muzinda military camp 28 March after reportedly trying to kill other soldiers; army claimed it was suicide. Two grenades thrown at police bus in Bujumbura 29 March, seven injured. Govt freed 158 political prisoners, suspended around fifteen arrest warrants, reauthorised one local NGO and reopened two radio stations, but police arrested opposition activists including on 9 March Nadebu party president Hugo Haramategeko. EU 14 March suspended direct budget support to govt, but will maintain humanitarian aid, 29 March said it will cut funding to Burundi’s peacekeeping contingent in Somalia. Ruling party 10 March claimed Rwandan President Kagame behind plot to destabilise Burundi. Security services 7 March arrested man they claimed to be Rwandan spy; Rwanda 17 March denied allegation. Former Rwandan minister, arrested Dec 2015 for spying, died suddenly in Bujumbura prison 31 March. UN 22 March said 474 people killed in political violence since April 2015. UNHCR 4 March said over 250,000 Burundians have fled to neighbouring states.


Boko Haram (BH) attacks in Far North declined amid ongoing military operations. BH 5 March killed two local security committee members in Ganse; 8 March killed four civilians near Kolofata; 19 March killed two civilians near Amchide. Security forces prevented four suicide bombings during month, while two soldiers were killed and four injured in three IED incidents. Army 25 March caught two girls with explosives strapped to them in Limani, Far North. Military court 23 March sentenced 89 BH insurgents to death. BH insurgency worsening fragile political situation in Far North: protests took place during month against prefect and gendarmerie chief in Mokolo where deadly robberies are widely attributed to local gendarmerie; three gendarmes under investigation.

Central African Republic

Constitutional court 1 March validated President Touadéra’s Feb election victory. Touadéra 10 March formed political secretariat to define priorities for forthcoming govt. France 30 March confirmed gradual withdrawal of Sangaris military mission by end of 2016. Constitutional court 14 March invalidated Feb legislative elections results for ten districts, citing irregularities. Second round legislative vote 31 March saw low voter turnout. Fighting in villages near central Bambari early month killed at least twelve. LRA and other armed groups in SE killed two, abducted twenty in three attacks during month. International Criminal Court 21 March convicted Congolese former rebel Jean-Pierre Bemba of war crimes and crimes against humanity, judging him responsible for abuses committed by his militia in CAR 2002-2003.


Protests against regime and govt repression continued raising concerns for potential violence around 10 April presidential election. Constitutional council 7 March validated fourteen presidential candidacies. Govt 19 March banned demonstrations except electoral campaigning. Police 21-23 March arrested several civil society leaders for calling for anti-Déby marches; all charged with “attack on public order”. Civil society coalitions called for national strike to protest arrests, strike widely observed 29 March.

Côte d’Ivoire

In unprecedented terrorist attack, gunmen 13 March shot dead sixteen civilians on beach and in hotels in Grand-Bassam, 40km east of Abidjan; three gunmen and three security forces also killed. Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) claimed responsibility; four alleged accomplices (three Malians and one Ivorian) arrested 20 March in Abidjan, two Malians also arrested 25-26 March in northern Mali. Intercommunal clashes 24-25 March between Fulani herdsmen and Lobi farmers in Bouna (NE) quickly escalated; at least twenty killed (including twelve Burkinabe), some 1,500 fled to Burkina Faso.

Democratic Republic of Congo

Political crisis continued with no significant progress toward dialogue, and elections planned for Nov increasingly likely to be delayed. Electoral commission (CENI) 18 March said it could not organise presidential and legislative elections for Nov 2016 as planned due to extensive voter roll update, matter will likely be referred to constitutional court; ruling coalition insists on need for dialogue, opposition continues to refuse, but apparently willing to meet AU mediator Edem Kodjo. G7 group of opposition parties 30 March announced it would back ex-Katanga Governor Moïse Katumbi as presidential candidate if he runs. Indirect elections of provincial governors held 26 March in all but one of 21 newly established provinces after CENI and courts rejected most opposition candidacies. Ruling coalition claimed victory in fifteen provinces, including four created by division of mineral-rich former Katanga province. In South Ubangi province, governor election delayed due to contested election of provincial assembly president. Final results to be published 12 April. In further sign of shrinking free speech, govt 11 March closed La Voix du Katanga radio and television station. UN attack helicopters 24 March engaged Allied Democratic Force (ADF) rebels. UNSC 30 March extended MONUSCO’s mandate for one year, rejecting govt’s appeal to downsize mission.


Ahead of 8 April presidential elections, armed opposition Front for the Restoration of Unity and Democracy (FRUD-armé) 13 March reportedly attacked army convoy in Obock region, six soldiers injured. Attack by armed forces on illegal fishing boat 14 March left one Somaliland coastguard killed; govt apologised.


Govt 18 March released four Djibouti prisoners of war captured in border skirmish June 2008, reportedly following Qatari mediation.


Infighting in opposition party Union of Democratic Forces of Guinea (UFDG) continued: UFDG VP Amadou Bah Oury 2 March challenged his early-Feb exclusion by party president Cellou Dalein Diallo and demanded reinstatement; Diallo 11 March rejected plea. Opposition 21 March said Electoral Commission’s 21 Feb postponement of local elections violated Aug 2015 political agreement.


Tensions between President Vaz and ruling African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC) persisted, focused on Jan parliamentary decision to end mandates of fifteen pro-Vaz PAIGC dissidents. Vaz 9 March pleaded for political solution following failed late-Feb and early-March attempts at dialogue. Both sides launched legal attacks: Vaz-appointed public prosecutor confirmed 18 March indictment of leading Vaz adversary Carmen Pereira for misuse of state funds; court 9 March annulled May 2015 re-election of leading PAIGC dissident MP Braima Camara as Chamber of Commerce assembly president. UNSC and AU Peace and Security Council 7 and 16 March urged courts to resolve political standoff. Armed forces chief of staff General Biague Nantan 3 March hinted civilians were attempting to buy influence in military and warned harsh punishment for coup plotters, amid reports a dozen soldiers were detained allegedly in connection with weapons trafficking. Police 14 March reported arrest of four Bissau-Guinean radical Islamists Jan and Feb.


Ugandan police 8 March briefly arrested two Kenyan Independent Electoral and Boundary Commission officials on disputed Migingo Island in Lake Victoria; Ugandan police 12 March assaulted two local Kenyan officials. Communal violence continued including: Pokot and Marakwet communities clashed 22-24 March in Elegeyo-Marakwet county, at least four killed, dozens of livestock taken; Aulihan and Abudwak communities 25-27 March clashed in Garissa county, at least one killed; Degodia community 26 March attacked Gabra herders in Marsabit county, two killed; Gabra 29 March killed three Degodia.


UNSC delegation 4-6 March visited to assess implementation of June 2015 Bamako peace agreement; encouraged signatories to accelerate process and expressed support for local peace initiatives. Peace agreement follow-up committee mandated to implement Bamako accord made no progress at seventh session 9-10 March. Local Tuareg and Arab communities and security forces held reconciliation meeting 12 March in Gargando, Timbuktu region. Rebel alliance Coalition of Azawad Movements (CMA) held peace forum 28-31 March, without presence of govt and pro-govt armed groups. Mali and Burkina Faso forces with support from French Operation Barkhane undertook joint operation 22 Feb-6 March to secure border areas against jihadists. Jihadist group Ansar Eddine claimed responsibility for three attacks on MINUSMA troops near Kidal and Tessalit 5 March and one on FAMA in Macina. Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) claimed responsibility for 21 March unsuccessful attack on EU Training Mission HQ in Bamako. Security forces 31 March reportedly arrested suspected jihadi leader Souleymane Keita.


Rebel group Renamo continued attacks on civilian vehicles including: 5 March opened fire on bus in Manica province, killing two; 23 March reportedly separately opened fire on same bus twice, leaving two wounded; 29 March reportedly opened fire on govt convoy in Manica province, injuring three police. Police 28 March reported seizing weapons from Renamo HQ and home of leader Afonso Dhlakama in Maputo. Dhlakama 8 March refused dialogue with President Nyusi until govt cedes power in six central and northern provinces and organises international mediation. In concession to Renamo, Nyusi 3 March replaced police chief Jorge Khalau who led interventions to neutralise Dhlakama including Oct 2015 disarming of his bodyguards. Over 11,500 reported to have fled to Malawi since military operations to disarm Renamo began in Tete province Oct 2015; govt denies allegations of human rights violations by security forces.


President Issoufou re-elected with 92.49% of vote in peaceful second round election 20 March; opposition boycotted poll over allegedly rigged first round, demanded Constitutional Court reject results. Opposition leader Doudou Rahama arrested 15 March after calling on supporters not to vote for Issoufou; opposition Coalition for Change (COPA) accused regime of trying to muzzle opposition, called for Rahama’s release. Doctor of imprisoned opposition leader and runner-up in first round vote Hama Amadou detained 16-19 March for “spreading false news” about his patient. Court 29 March provisionally released Amadou. After Electoral Commission published provisional results 22 March, Issoufou called for roundtable with opposition. Though skeptical, COPA opposition coalition 29 March declared itself willing to engage in dialogue with regime. Security situation precarious: Boko Haram 16 March attacked security forces in Bosso, Diffa region, killed one and wounded two; 30 March ambushed army near Diffa town, killed six soldiers; alleged al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) assailants same day attacked police station in Dolbel, Tillabery region near Burkina Faso border, killed three police.


Despite govt repeating claims that Boko Haram (BH) defeated, violence continued, albeit at lower rate. BH insurgents 14 March stormed Mussa village in Askira/Uba local govt area, Borno state, killing at least fifteen. Two female suicide bombers 16 March attacked mosque in Ummamari village near Maiduguri, killing at least 22. Army reported scores of insurgents killed, over 100 hostages freed, several villages reclaimed in operations during month. Clashes between Fulani herdsmen and farming communities continued in Benue state; after hundreds reportedly killed in Agatu area late Feb, at least fifteen killed 17 March in Tombo village, Buruku local govt area. In Niger Delta, suspected pirates 17 March attacked army patrol in Abonema, Rivers state killing two soldiers; at least five killed 19 March during repeat state and federal constituency elections in Rivers state. Gunmen kidnapped and killed army colonel in Kaduna state 27 March amid spike in kidnappings in several states. In ongoing anti-corruption drive, court 7 March arraigned former chief of defence staff, Ret Air Chief Marshal Alex Badeh, for diverting 3.97bn naira (about $19.5mn).

Republic of Congo

Govt cracked down on opposition protests after President Sassou Nguesso won 20 March presidential election with 60% of vote; constitutional court to validate results. Govt 20-23 March shutdown telephone, internet and SMS services; opposition said communications blackout intended to prevent election monitoring. Police 20 March fired tear gas at activists protesting voting irregularities. Plainclothes police 23 March attacked one journalist from Le Monde, two from AFP, seized passports and equipment. Police 25 March prevented opposition announcing their own vote count, fired tear gas at supporters and arrested some ten opposition activists. Opposition candidates 26 March called for peaceful protests and national strike, strike widely observed 29 March. French President Hollande 26 Feb said elec- tions “not credible”.


Over a dozen armed men in DR Congo military uniforms 23 March entered Rwanda from DRC, attacked army base in Rubavu district, one attacker killed. Former Rwandan minister, arrested Dec 2015 in Burundi for spying, died suddenly in Bujumbura prison 31 March (see Burundi).


U.S. and clan militias both intensified anti-Al-Shabaab operations in south-central, while insurgents tried to capture territory further north. Al-Shabaab 3 March attacked Somali Federal Government (SFG) defence minister’s convoy near Kismayo, no casualties reported; 7 March detonated bomb outside Beledweyne airport, at least six injured; 14 March seized Garacad port town from boats in Puntland; 31 March killed at least six in suicide attack in Galkayo. Puntland forces 16-20 March pushed back insurgents, reportedly killing 55. Al-Shabaab 20 March attacked Somali National Army (SNA) base in Lower Shabelle region, claimed to have killed 74 soldiers and seized nine vehicles; SNA claimed only six soldiers killed. U.S. claimed that its 5 March strikes on Al-Shabaab training camp in Raso, Hiraan region killed 150 militants; 8 March provided air support to SNA attack on Al-Shabaab base in Awdigle, Lower Shabelle region. Kenya Defence Forces (KDF) reportedly killed 34 Al-Shabaab militants, seized weapons near Ras Kamboni, Lower Juba region in 19 and 20 March attacks. Somali National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA) 22 March arrested 24 suspected Al-Shabaab members in Mogadishu IDP camp. Some 28 reportedly killed 1-2 March in Ahlu Sunna wal Jama’a militia infighting over cooperation with Gal- mudug Interim Administration (GIA). GIA and Puntland forces clashed over grazing land 13 March, eleven killed. Gunmen 30 March killed at least two Turkish citizens and four Somalis in Mogadishu.

South Sudan

Initial steps in implementing August 2015 peace deal helped raise prospects for significant progress toward formation of transitional govt of national unity in April. First group of rebel Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army-In Opposition (SPLM/A-IO) forces arrived in Juba 28 March to prepare for return of their leader, VP designate Riek Machar. Complicating ongoing negotiations with Sudan including over disputed border areas, President Kiir sacked FM Barnaba Marial Benjamin after he wrote that academic from Abyei, claimed by both Sudan and South Sudan, was Sudanese not South Sudanese. Under peace agreement, former political detainees have chosen their leader Deng Alor, from Abyei, to be FM in forthcoming transitional govt. Sudan 29 March announced closure of border with South Sudan (see Sudan). East African Community (EAC) 2 March accepted South Sudan membership.


Govt and African Union High-Level Implementation Panel (AUHIP) 21 March signed roadmap agreement for how to address multiple conflicts: includes ceasefire, talks on Two Areas (S Kordofan, Blue Nile states) and Darfur, endorsement of National Dialogue (ND). AUHIP head Thabo Mbeki called for opposition to sign, however major opposition groups including National Umma Party (NUP), Justice and Equality Movement (JEM), Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N) accused AUHIP of govt bias, rejected agreement. Fighting continued: Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) 7 March claimed it had repelled SPLM-N offensive in S Kordofan, casualties unknown; some 30 SAF, at least three SPLM-N reportedly killed 9-11 March during govt offensives in Two Areas; clashes between SAF and Sudan Liberation Movement-Abdel Wahid al-Nur (SLM-AW) reportedly continued in Jebel Marra area, Darfur region. Popular Congress Party (PCP) leader Hassan al-Turabi died 5 March; replaced by Ibrahim al-Sanousi. Amid posturing by Sudan and South Sudan to strengthen positions in talks over unresolved post-independence issues, Sudan 29 March announced closure of border with South Sudan.


Following President Museveni’s controversial Feb reelection, police and govt supporters clashed with opposition supporters early to mid-March: soldiers 10-11 March killed at least seven allegedly armed opposition supporters in western Kasese district, fifteen others reportedly killed in west, notably Bundibugyo district. Opposition presidential candidate Amama Mbabazi 1 March filed petition with Supreme Court to challenge election results; court 18 March demanded Electoral Commission hand over tally sheets to Mbabazi; presiding judges 31 March dismissed petition.


Former VP Joice Mujuru 1 March launched Zimbabwe People First (ZPF) party. Security forces and alleged ZANU-PF proxies subsequently upped violence including disruption of rallies, intimidation, abductions and assaults. Amid persistent ZANU-PF factionalism, individuals associated with G40 faction supporting Grace Mugabe used disciplinary processes to disempower VP Emmerson Mnangagwa’s allies; War Veterans Minister Christopher Mutsvangwa and wife Senator Monica Mutsvangwa suspended from party. President Mugabe early-March admitted over $13bn in state revenue from Marange Diamond fields missing, confirming long-standing domestic and international allegations.



Taliban 5 March announced it would not participate in direct talks with govt until all preconditions have been met, including foreign troop withdrawal, release of Taliban prisoners, removal of Taliban names from UN sanctions list. President Ghani addressing parliament next day warned Taliban must “choose whether they want peace or war”. Hizb-e-Islami insurgent group representatives 17 March met with High Peace Council, maintained demands for foreign troop withdrawal and “establishment of legitimate Islamic system”. Ghani 5 March issued long-awaited constitutional decree on electoral reform to enable release of international financial assistance urgently needed for elections to be held in Oct. Afghan and Pakistani border forces 6 March exchanged mortar and rocket fire across border in Nangarhar province. Clashes between rival Taliban factions led by Mullah Akhtar Mansour and Mullah Mohammad Rasool in Herat’s Shindbad district 10 March reportedly resulted in 100 deaths. Over a dozen security forces killed in clash with Taliban in Uruzgan province in south 29 March; two police and several insurgents reported killed in fighting in Balkh province in north 30 March; Herat provincial officials reported some 100 militants killed during security operation to regain control of Shindand district late month. Thirteen Taliban killed 23 March in Ghazni province during clash with security forces. Multiple suicide attacks included: attack near Indian consulate in Jalalabad 2 March killing two; attack in Kabul 5 March reportedly killed three people. In Helmand province, ten Taliban and three police killed in attack on govt buildings 9 March. New commander of NATO and U.S. forces in Afghanistan 22 March issued formal apology for 2015 Kunduz hospital bombing. UN SRSG Nicholas Haysom 15 March warned UNSC that Afghan govt’s survival in 2016 “will be an achievement”.


First round of local elections 22 March saw at least eleven killed and over 500 reported injured in election-related violence, reportedly including by Awami League (AL) supporters who, fearing local party losses, attacked police taking ballot boxes; opposition Bangladesh National Party (BNP) contested local polls despite alleging widespread rigging ahead of vote. BNP leader Khaleda Zia and son Tarique Rahman won chair and senior vice-chair positions respectively in uncontested BNP internal elections 7 March. At 19 March triennial national council meeting between BNP leaders to discuss reforms and elect council, Zia pledged BNP would, if voted to office, introduce “new govt model” for better balance of power between PM, cabinet, and parliament; called for transparency in appointments to constitutional bodies. Ahead of meeting, party leaders considered revising party manifesto to explicitly reject “extremism and religious militancy”, in apparent bid to counter criticism of having turned a blind eye while in govt. Court 30 March issued arrest warrant for Zia and 27 other BNP officials over role in instigating firebomb attack during opposition blockade Jan 2015; court 10 March cleared BNP acting Sec Gen and 25 other members of BNP-led 20- party alliance of arson charges over alleged election-related violence in Jan 2014. Shia doctor hacked to death in Jhenaidah district of Khulna Division 15 March, Christian man stabbed to death north of Dhaka 22 March; Islamic State reportedly claimed both attacks. Raids on suspected Jamaatul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB) cells continued, including paramilitary Rapid Action Battalion’s arrest of five alleged JMB members 13 March in Dhaka. Supreme Court 8 March upheld International Crimes Tribunal (ICT) death penalty for senior Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) member Mir Quasem Ali, believed to be party’s main financier. ICT 15 March issued death warrant for JeI chief Motiur Rahman Nizami.


Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party 16 March passed resolu- tion urging govt to consider seeking international arbitration over China’s drilling activities in East China Sea (ECS), specifically its unilateral exploration of Chunxiao gas field, citing China’s breach of 2008 agreement to jointly develop gas field. Japan expanded ECS surveillance network around disputed islands; new radar observation station on Yonaguni Island went online 28 March. Chinese FM Wang Yi 8 March said future of China-Japan relations does not “allow for optimism”; Japanese FM Fumio Kishida 11 March said enhancing dialogue with China a priority. During 15 March phone call Chinese and Japanese FMs agreed to closely coordinate implementation of UNSC resolution against North Korea; call was first exchange between them since Nov 2015.


In continued clashes between security forces and Maoists, eight suspected Maoists 1 March killed during raid on rebel training camp in Sukna. Officials reported seven police killed in Maoist landmine attack in Chhattisgarh 30 March.

India-Pakistan (Kashmir)

Pakistani investigation team 27 March arrived in India to investigate 2 Jan militant attack on Indian airbase in Pathankot in Punjab near Pakistani border killing seven Indian soldiers; followed Indian FM’s 17 March announcement during South Asian Associated for Regional Cooperation Council of Ministers meeting of agreement with Pakistan Foreign Affairs Advisor Sartaj Aziz that Pakistan would send investigation team. Indian defence minister 1 March accused Pakistani non-state actors of responsibility for attack, said “no non-state actor from there [Pakistan] can function smoothly without the state’s support”. Pakistan interior minister 8 March confirmed his govt had informed Indian authorities of ten suspicious men crossing border from Pakistan 3 March; Indian security forces reportedly killed three of them. Pakistan officials summoned Indian ambassador 25 March protesting illegal entry of suspected Indian spy captured in Baluchistan province 24 March. Clashes between Indian soldiers and rebels continued including two suspected rebels killed in gun battle NW of Srinagar 18 March. Indian army 3 March said three suspected Kashmiri rebels killed during gun battle in Tral; hundreds of residents shouting pro-freedom slogans attempted to reach site of clash, police fired tear gas to disperse them.


Suspected members of armed wing of Free Papua Movement 15 March attacked highway project in Papua’s Puncak municipality, killing four construction workers and kidnapping two; govt said construction project would continue, with extra security. Solomon Islands raised concerns about human rights violations in Papua at UN Human Rights Council in Geneva 18 March. Jakarta police chief Gen Tito Karnavian sworn in as country’s head of counter-terrorism 16 March. Rights activists called on parliament to reject proposed revisions to anti-terrorism law including detention without trial for up to three months.

Korean Peninsula

UNSC 2 March unanimously adopted Resolution 2270, drafted by U.S. and China, initiating further sanctions against DPRK, including: mandatory inspections of cargo to/from DPRK, blacklisting of ships, total arms embargo, ban on selling aviation/rocket fuels, embargoes on DPRK’s coal, iron ore, gold and rare earth exports. Philippines 5 March impounded blacklisted North Korean freighter; at least five other vessels denied entry at Russian and Chinese ports. ROK and U.S. 7 March began largest ever joint military exercises; DPRK called them “nuclear war moves”, threatened pre-emptive nuclear strike, fired short-range missiles off east coast 3, 21 and 29 March; 18 March medium-range ballistic missile. Leader Kim Jong-un 4 March said country’s nuclear warheads “need to be ready for use at any time”; 9 March that DPRK had miniaturised nuclear warheads to fit on ballistic missiles; 11 March asked scientists to continue nuclear tests; 10 March announced all inter-Korean agreements on economic cooperation and exchange projects nullified, vowed to liquidate South Korean assets in DPRK. UN envoy 17 March requested UNSC meeting on joint military exercises. Obama 16 March issued executive order formally enacting UN and U.S. sanctions; China said it opposes unilateral sanctions. Chinese and Russian FMs issued joint press statement saying they would not recognise DPRK as nuclear weapon state.


MPs 15 March overwhelmingly elected Aung San Suu Kyi confidant Htin Kyaw as president, with retired Lt-Gen Myint Swe and Henry Van Thio becoming VPs. Htin Kyaw and Henry Van Thio both National League for Democracy (NLD) nominees, both seen as Suu Kyi proxies; Myint Swe selected as nominee by military bloc, seen as military hardliner. Legislature 24 March approved President-elect’s eighteen nominees for 21 ministries without discussion; list includes Suu Kyi, who will hold four portfolios: foreign affairs, education, energy and president office. Others include technocrats, NLD leaders and some members of other political parties. Htin Kyaw sworn in as president 30 March, spoke of need for democratic constitution. Speaking at Armed Forces Day 27 March, marked with 10,000 military personnel parading in Naypyitaw, commander-in-chief said military must remain a political force. Work continued on peace process at procedural level, particularly on joint ceasefire monitoring mechanisms at national and state/region levels. Situation remains unstable in many areas, with new clashes causing significant displacement. Fighting in N Shan state between Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and govt forces continued. Arakan Army claimed to have killed over 30 govt troops in clash in N Rakhine state 3 March. Kachin Independence Organization (KIO) late Feb announced re-establishment of additional brigade in N Shan state. Political tensions surfaced in Rakhine as president-elect’s nomination on 29 March of member of minority NLD bloc, rather than dominant Arakan National Party (ANP) bloc, as state’s chief minister gave perception of side-lining main political party ANP, which won majority of state seats in Nov 2015 elections. UN reported some 25,000 displaced Rohingya Muslims who fled sectarian violence in 2012 returned from camps to original communities in past twelve months – most to villages adjacent to camps; 120,000 still in camps. U.S. State Dept reported Rohingya Muslims continue to face persecution.


Constitution-related negotiations between mainstream and Madhesi parties remained stalled, no progress on disputes on state boundaries. In coalition of Madhesi parties, disagreements continued over strategy and form of further protests; public confidence in parties eroded in Tarai region. Supplies of petrol in Kathmandu normalised mid-March; shortages of diesel and cooking gas continued. Former PM Sher Bahadur Deuba elected new Nepali Congress president 7 March, triggering discussions on possible change of govt. PM KP Oli continued regional diplomatic efforts, visiting Beijing 20-27 March, signing bilateral transit transport agreement 21 March granting Nepal access to China’s ports; visit an effort to counterbalance trade dependence on India. Nepal Army announced former Maoist combatants integrated into its forces to be deployed in UN peacekeeping missions beginning July 2016; 85 of 1,420 ex-Maoist combatants to participate initially. Post-earthquake reconstruction efforts remain delayed due to political disputes, lack of policy framework or feasibility studies by National Reconstruction Authority (NRA); NRA CEO under investigation for alleged corruption in previous role as head of national Town Development Fund.


Over 70 people killed and at least 300 injured in suicide bomb attack on park in Lahore 27 March; victims included many families celebrating Easter. Attack claimed by Pakistani Taliban faction Jamaat-ul-Ahrar (JA) which said it was targeting Christians. Amid criticism of inadequate security, PM Sharif called for better coordination on part of security services against terrorism; military and intelligence agencies conducted raids following attacks, killing five suspects and arresting more than 600. Violent protests against execution of Mumtaz Qadri, Punjab Governor Salman Taseer’s murderer, in Islamabad, with thousands of Islamist activists besieging parliament and destroying public property, ended 30 March with govt reportedly agreeing not to amend blasphemy law, to show no leniency to those imprisoned on blasphemy charges, and to release non-violent demonstrators. At least 31 killed in insurgent attacks throughout month, including in Peshawar, Mohmand Agency and Sibi districts. Dozens of suspected insurgents also killed by security forces during month, including in N Waziristan, Karachi, Punjab and Balochistan. Security forces 10 March reportedly arrested fourteen members of Afghan Taliban near Quetta. Interior Minister Chaudhry Nisar 2 March ordered investigation into allegations that Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) party received Indian funding and weapons; former Karachi mayor Mustafa Kamal next day accused MQM party leader of ties with Indian intelligence. Supreme Court 11 March rejected request by paramilitary Rangers to establish separate police structure and one year extension of special policing powers in Sindh province.


Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) leader Murad Ebrahim 7 March said MILF will uphold Mindanao peace process ahead of May elections, appealed to international supporters of process to influence new govt to implement 2014 Comprehensive Agreement on the  Bangsamoro (CAB); warned about growing frustration over Congress’s failure to pass Bangsamoro Basic Law (BBL) leading to fringe militant groups allying with Islamic State (IS) to establish stronghold on southern islands; said MILF working to dissuade IS-allied militants from launching attacks. Senator Ferdinand Marcos Jr., author and sponsor of alternative to BBL, 24 March said implementing peace process best deterrent against IS influence in Philippines. Clashes continued between military and Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters in Da- tu Salibo, Maguindanao. Two New People’s Army (NPA) bomb attacks 20 March wounded four soldiers and two civilians in Bicol region. Military confirmed Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) militant Radullan Sahiron, wanted by U.S. for $1 mn, injured in 18 March firefight with govt security forces in Patikul. One ASG reported killed 23 March in MILF ambush. ASG reportedly kidnapped ten Indonesian sailors late month. IS-linked Ansaru’l Khilafah Philippines 17 March released video purporting to show beheading of man working for police.

South China Sea

U.S. intelligence chief 8 March said China has capability to provide basic self-defence in Spratlys, though no Chinese navy/coast guard ships permanently based there, and China has paused land reclamation since Oct. Mayor of Sansha City (administrative unit for all SCS islands claimed by China) 11 March said civilian flights to disputed Woody Island to begin within twelve months; followed late Feb announcement of plans for Chinese power grid management station on island, and U.S. report that China had deployed fighter jets to island. U.S. Navy 1-6 March conducted “routine operations” in eastern SCS; officials emphasised operations neither show of force nor formal confrontation. Philippines and U.S. 18 March announced deal opening four Philippine air bases and one army camp to U.S.. Chinese FM Wang Yi 8 March said China exploring possibility of establishing SCS littoral states cooperation mechanism. EU 11 March released statement calling on SCS claimants to resolve disputes through peaceful means in accordance with international law, expressing concern about deployment of missiles on islands. U.S. Army 15 March reported plans to stockpile materials in Vietnam, Cambodia, other Pacific countries to enable quicker deployments. Malaysian defence minister said 14 March he would coordinate pushback with Australian, Vietnamese and Philippine counterparts to ensure China would not militarise Spratly Islands. Chinese coast guard vessel forcefully intervened 19 March when Indonesian fisheries ministry ship arrested Chinese fishermen off Natuna Islands; Indonesia refused Chinese demands that it release the eight fishermen, said they would be prosecuted. Indonesian maritime security official 23 March said China’s actions had created “new ball game” in SCS.

Sri Lanka

MPs 9 March approved resolution for parliament to act as “Constitutional Assembly” tasked with drafting new constitution. President Sirisena continued moves to strengthen hold over Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) and United People’s Freedom Alliance (UPFA) including appointing Mahinda Amaraweera as UPFA Sec Gen 8 March. Despite Sirisena’s threats to suspend MPs attending opposition events from party, rally by “joint opposition” with former president Rajapaksa and over 40 SLFP MPs 17 March in Colombo drew large crowds. During speech in Washington FM Samaraweera 25 Feb said govt willing to consider participation of international actors implementing UN Human Rights Council (UNHRC) resolution, while former Army Commander and Regional Development Minister Sarath Fonseka 10 March endorsed international participation in war crimes investigation; however, Sirisena 18 March again rejected involvement by foreign judges. UNHCHR 10 March said release of land held by military, reviewing cases of security detainees and resolving disappearances must accelerate. Sirisena 14 March presented deeds for additional 700 military-occupied acres of land to owners in Valikamam North division of Jaffna peninsula. Three-week hunger strike by fourteen Tamil detainees held under Prevention of Terrorism Act ended 11 March after Attorney General Dept officials assured them that magistrate’s court would file charges soon. Amid growing economic pressure, Central Bank governor 17 March confirmed govt in negotiations with IMF for $1.5bn loan.


Constitution Drafting Committee (CDC) 29 March released final constitution draft, including National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) proposals for NCPO-appointed 250-member senate during five-year transition period following 2017 general election. Six senate seats are reserved for senior military and police officers. Critics, including members of Pheu Thai and Democrat parties, described five-year transition as ploy for NCPO to retain power following general election. National Legis- lative Assembly 10 March approved amendments to interim constitution to stipulate that majority of ballots cast, rather than majority of voters, necessary for approval of constitution in referendum scheduled for early Aug. Deputy PM 1 March said only govt-sanctioned debates supervised by Election Commission permitted to discuss draft constitution ahead of referendum. NCPO continued to crack down on critics; Pheu Thai Party politician detained 26 March by army for three-day “attitude adjustment”. Month saw increase in violence in southernmost provinces, including at least ten attacks in Yala and Narathiwat provinces 13-14 March in which one defence volunteer was killed and ten people injured. At least 40 insurgents 13 March seized hospital in Cho Airong, Narathiwat province and used it as base to attack adjacent army camp, wounding seven rangers. Three police killed, six wounded in ambush in Rangae, Narathiwat 29 March; Pattani rocked by several explosions 30-31 March, one person killed.

Europe & Central Asia

Armenian-Azerbaijani Conflict

Armenia and Azerbaijan exchanged accusations of ceasefire violations during month. Azerbaijan reported its army fired on Armenian positions in NK 10 March, claiming over ten Armenian soldiers killed; N-K authorities denied Azerbaijani claims that their forces were targeting civilians in Aqdam area, accused Azerbaijani forces of violating ceasefire and denied sustaining losses. Baku reported two Azerbaijani soldiers killed by Armenian army 27 March, Armenia denied, said Azerbaijan attacked villages.


Baku court 15 March sentenced opposition adviser Mammad Ibrahim to three years’ prison on hooliganism charges; Ibrahim said charges politically motivated. Thirteen human rights/opposition activists among 148 prisoners released as part of presidential amnesty 17 March; EU and OSCE called for release of remaining political prisoners. Journalist Rauf Mirkadirov, jailed in Dec 2015 for spying, in case he said was politically motivated, also released early. Supreme Court 28 March commuted sentence of human rights lawyer Intigam Aliyev, convicted in 2015 on charges including tax evasion. Azerbaijan held joint air force exercises with Turkey during month.


32 people killed and over 300 injured by two suicide bomb attacks at Brussels airport and on metro in Brussels 22 March; both attacks claimed by Islamic State (IS). Three attackers also killed in explosions, one suspect remains at large, several arrested over suspected involvement in attack and with Europe-wide network linked to IS in Syria. Attacks followed capture in Brussels 18 March of Salah Abdeslam, suspect in Nov 2015 Paris attacks, and 15 March raid, also in Brussels, in which another Paris attacks suspect killed.

Bosnia And Herzegovina

President of Republika Srpska (RS) entity Milorad Dodik sparked outrage by expressing admiration for former Bosnian Serb leader Radovan Karadžić, who was found guilty by International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY) in The Hague 24 March of genocide over 1995 Srebrenica massacre and sentenced to 40 years’ jail. ICTY 31 March acquitted former Serbian deputy PM and ultra-nationalist Vojislav Seselj of charges of war crimes and crimes against humanity during Balkans wars in early 1990s.


Greek Cypriot spokesperson 8 March said Ankara should recognise Republic of Cyprus and open trade, ports and airports before govt could lift veto on six of Turkey’s EU negotiation chapters; statement threatened to complicate Turkey’s deal on refugees and accelerated accession talks with EU. Turkey’s EU Minister Volkan Bozkır 16 March said “capriciousness” of Greek Cypriot administration should not be allowed to block EU-Turkey deal. Republic of Cyprus President Anastasiades 17 March backed down following meetings with European Council President Tusk and European Commission President Juncker, said he hoped compromise could be reached at European Council meeting but maintained criticism of Turkey for failing to recognise his govt. Turkish and U.S. FMs meeting in Washington 29 March agreed Cyprus deal could be reached in 2016. Historic Denya Mosque attacked 22 Feb by unknown arsonists; Turkish Cypriot and Greek Cypriot leaders condemned attack. Turkish Cypriot leader Mustafa Akıncı alleged attack was attempt to disrupt peace talks and vowed to punish assailants.


Russian Deputy FM mid-month said Moscow disliked increasing anti-Russian rhetoric in Tbilisi, Kremlin’s patience “has limits”. Commander of NATO Supreme Allied Command Europe Gen Philip Breedlove during late-March visit warned of Russia’s “aggressive game in world politics” and called for Georgia to further enhance partnership with NATO and U.S.. Thousands joined protests 6 March against govt plan to purchase natural gas from Russian-owned Gazprom.


Snap parliamentary elections 20 March passed without incident; Central Election Committee 22 March announced ruling party Nur Otan won 82.2% votes, reported 77.12% turnout; OSCE said “genuine political choice remains insufficient”.


Opposition MPs continued to disrupt parliament sessions with tear gas early month, including 4 March voting in of Hashim Thaçi as president 4 March; protests continued outside parliament. Masked assailants threw Molotov cocktail at president’s office 12 March. Parliament held first undisrupted session of 2016 on 15 March, as opposition boycotted. Opposition repeated calls for early elections. Opposition 25 March announced it would postpone protest planned for next day against election of Thaci as president.


Amid worsening economic situation, prominent nationalist politicians from south including Adahan Madumarov and Kamchybek Tashiev (leader of Ata Jurt party) 12 Feb formed new nationalist party United Opposition Force of Kyrgyzstan (UOF). Group formation comes against backdrop of mounting protests over economic situation, including rallies held in Aksy, Kerben, Jalalabad and Talas 14 March. Speaking in Osh 17 March President Atambayev reportedly said provocateurs should be stoned. National Security Committee 23 March confirmed authenticity of records confirming opposition’s plans to seize power. Amid accusations, opposition cancelled 24 March mass protest in Osh; two opposition leaders, Bektur Asanov, Kubanychbek Kadyrov and Ernest Karybekov, detained 24-25 March. 27 March local elections in Osh held peacefully with Social Democratic Party of Kyrgyzstan (SDPK) leading poll.


Constitutional Court 4 March ruled that president should be elected by popular vote, not by parliament. Current President Timofti, whose term expired 23 March, to stay on as acting president until direct presidential elections.

North Macedonia

Senior U.S. official visited Skopje early March to check implementation of June 2015 agreement to end political crisis. EU mediator reported talks on media reform ahead of June elections had halted. Constitutional Court closed session mid-month, approved cancellation of law which would have prohibited president from pardoning individuals accused of vote-rigging in 2013 election despite protests and EU calls to fight impunity in election-related offences. Special Prosecution into crimes by senior officials late March announced investigations into five people suspected of destroying surveillance equipment, and into former secret police chief and several others suspected of acts of torture. Electoral commission report leaked 17 March said half a million names (out of 1.8mn on electoral role) need further verification. Court 25 March sentenced six people for fighting alongside Islamist groups in Syria or recruiting others.

Russia (Internal)

Twenty masked men 9 March attacked group of journalists including Norwegian and Swede, and two Russian activists from human rights group Committee to Prevent Torture (CPT), near Chechnya’s border with Ingushetia, beating them and burning a minivan. CPT head Igor Kalyapin hit and pelted with eggs by masked mob in Grozny centre 16 March. Kremlin condemned attacks but denied link to Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov. President Putin 25 March appointed Kadyrov as acting head of Chechnya until Sept elections, two days after hundreds of thousands gathered in Grozny to support Kadyrov on thirteenth anniversary of adoption of Chechen Constitution. Ingush Salafi preacher Khamzat Chumakov survived another car bomb attack in Nasyr-Kort 11 March, four wounded in attack. Islamic State (IS) claimed responsibility for 29 March attack near Makhachkala in Dagestan, killing one and injuring two police; another explosion killed one officer in Tabasaran district 30 March. Authorities 15 March detained fourteen members of banned Islamic group Nurcular in Dagestan. Russia’s National Antiterrorism Committee 17 March detained three IS-linked militants in Dagestan's western region Khasavyurt; militants confessed to ties with IS, revealed explosives cache. Leader of Dagestan’s Lezgin national movement Sadval (Unity) Nazim Gadzhiyev found dead 21 March in Makhachkala. Chechen authorities 18 March obliged young people aged 14 to 35 to fill out “spiritual-moral questionnaires” stating religious affiliation, self-identified clan and responsible relative. Parliament of Adygea 23 March suspended direct elections of chief executive.


Massive military exercise including 50,000 Tajik soldiers and reservists and 2,000 Russian soldiers conducted 15-19 March along length of Afghan border; followed 5 March skirmish between Tajik border guards and Taliban near Panj border post in which one Tajik soldier killed. Tajik border guards early March reportedly prevented infiltration of alleged armed group from Afghanistan near eastern city Khorog.