Elections delayed from 2020 due to COVID-19 are set to take place on 21 June amid mounting crises across Ethiopia, including a grinding, brutal war in Tigray. In this Q&A, Crisis Group expert William Davison outlines what to expect.
In his monthly take ahead of CrisisWatch, Interim President Richard Atwood looks at recent diplomacy in the Middle East and prospects for assuaging two of the rivalries that have fuelled Arab wars over the past decade.
Deadly conflict in Mozambique’s ruby- and natural gas-rich northernmost coastal province feeds on a mix of colonial-era tensions, inequality and Islamist militancy. To tame the insurrection, Maputo needs to use force, with bespoke assistance from outside partners, and to carefully address underlying grievances.
A spate of mass killings in Niger’s Tillabery region has raised the spectre of broader civil strife. Most worrying is the ethnic dimension to the crimes. Authorities should move quickly to prioritize civilian protection lest vigilantes take matters into their own hands.
Nigeria’s latest plan for curbing herder-farmer conflict is facing obstacles, including staff and funding shortages as well as political opposition. If this initiative fails, there could be more rural violence. Abuja should work with donors to raise both money and awareness of the scheme’s benefits.
Dans le sud-ouest du Niger, le banditisme armé pourrait renforcer la méfiance entre les communautés et favoriser des insurrections susceptibles d’être exploitées par les jihadistes. Les autorités nigériennes devraient agir pour remédier aux injustices subies par les communautés vivant de l’élevage, initier des dialogues intercommunautaires et mieux encadrer les groupes d’autodéfense embryonnaires.
Both federal and resistance forces are digging in for a lengthy battle in Ethiopia’s Tigray region. Conditions for civilians are dire, with famine a growing danger. Outside powers should urge Addis Ababa to let more aid into the war zone, while maintaining pressure for talks.
In 2016, Nigeria launched a program to help Boko Haram defectors reintegrate into civilian life. Rare interviews with the “deradicalisation” facility’s graduates reveal some encouraging signs but also troubling patterns that – if not addressed – could endanger the initiative’s future.
Deploying counterterror forces [in the Sahel region] has wiped out some leaders but failed to defeat or contain the threat. Instead, there has been a rise in authoritarian rule, a spread in instability and much higher risk to civilians.
The economic trend [in Algeria] is extremely negative, there is a liquidity crisis at banks and local companies. In construction, the biggest sector after oil, there has been a record number of bankruptcies. The country could be heading towards economic disaster with a heavy social cost.
Everyone seems obsessed with what is going on in Bamako, and that is another indication for the people in [Mali's] countryside that the state is not coming back.
Through these specific talks [in Somalia], Farmajo really didn’t play much of a role, but that doesn’t mean that he permanently is sitting out the campaign period.
Any sort of miscalculation could happen [in Somalia]. It just takes one trigger-happy soldier to fire on the other side, and that's going to erupt those dynamics.
[Somalia’s election impasse] comes down to unresolved internal political tensions, but also a lack of preparation and political will.
Online event, in partnership with the South African weekly newspaper Mail & Guardian, to discuss how to prevent the Cabo Delgado insurrection from escalating into a new frontier for global jihadism.
Acquitté le 31 mars 2021 par la Cour pénale internationale, l’ancien président Laurent Gbagbo est libre de retourner en Côte d’Ivoire. Dans ce Q&A, l’expert de Crisis Group Wendyam Hervé Lankoandé analyse les enjeux et les conditions de ce retour, prévu le 17 juin.
Originally published in The Africa Report
Online Event to discuss Vice News' recent documentary "Inside the U.S. War on Terror in Somalia", with input on the situation from Crisis Group's interim Vice President, Comfort Ero, and interim Chief of Policy, Steve Pomper.
This week on The Horn, Alan Boswell is joined by Willy Mutunga, former Chief Justice of Kenya, to discuss the court ruling against the president’s major push to change the Kenyan constitution, the independence of the judiciary system and Kenya’s upcoming elections.