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Sudan

CrisisWatch Sudan

Unchanged Situation

Political agreement reinstated ousted civilian PM Hamdok but consolidated military control over transition; anti-coup protesters faced deadly crackdown. Hamdok and Gen Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, head of Sovereign Council and leader of Oct coup, 21 Nov signed deal reinstating former as PM to head hybrid military-civilian govt until next elections. Agreement provides for liberation of political figures detained since coup and investigations into violence that marred anti-coup demonstrations; also codifies sidelining of key civilian actors including Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC), thus tilting balance of power toward military and their supporters. International community largely welcomed move, albeit with reservations. Notably, U.S. Sec State Antony Blinken 22 Nov said Hamdok’s reinstatement “important first step”. Several Sudanese political parties and civil society including FFC however condemned “attempt to legitimise the coup”, and 12 FFC ministers 22 Nov resigned in protest. Tens of thousands 25 Nov demonstrated against deal in capital Khartoum and other cities, called for justice for “martyrs” killed in demonstrations; security forces 30 Nov fired tear gas to disperse new protest in Khartoum. Earlier in month, near daily anti-coup protests held despite intensifying repression. Hundreds 7 Nov rallied across country as part of two-day civil disobedience campaign; security forces reportedly fired tear gas and arrested dozens. Thousands 13 Nov took to streets in Khartoum; medical authorities said at least eight protesters killed and over 200 injured. In deadliest crackdown since coup, security forces 17 Nov killed at least 15 demonstrators in and around Khartoum; hundreds more reportedly wounded; renewed clashes reported next day in Khartoum. Meanwhile, fighting between Arab herders and farmers from Misseriya Jebel tribe 17 Nov broke out in Jebel Moon area, West Darfur state, reportedly killing at least 43 by month’s end; intercommunal violence also ran high in North Darfur state, with attacks on several localities including Tawila and Dar El Salam leaving unknown number dead mid-Nov. Attack by armed groups and militias linked to Ethiopian military 27 Nov reportedly killed several Sudanese soldiers in disputed Al-Fashaga border zone; military 30 Nov said they had fired rockets into Ethiopian territory.
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Reports & Briefings

In The News

22 Nov 2021
The [Sudanese] military has shown its cards, it's clearly not seeking to deliver on the transition that people had called for during Sudan’s revolution in 2018-2019. VOA

Jonas Horner

Deputy Project Director, Horn of Africa & Senior Analyst, Sudan
17 Nov 2021
There is increasing prospect of the military [in Sudan] splintering and dividing as some sections of junior officers may begin siding with protestors. Al-Monitor

Jonas Horner

Deputy Project Director, Horn of Africa & Senior Analyst, Sudan
11 Nov 2021
The military [in Sudan] clearly feels little constraint to expanding its powers from either the street or international stakeholders. Bloomberg

Jonas Horner

Deputy Project Director, Horn of Africa & Senior Analyst, Sudan
28 Oct 2021
They [Sudanese military] misunderstand the will on the street quite to their detriment. I think they are badly advised by regional powers supportive on this and uneasy by the prospect of transition. Reuters

Jonas Horner

Deputy Project Director, Horn of Africa & Senior Analyst, Sudan
15 Oct 2021
[The] completion of Sudan’s transition to a civilian government would imperil the military’s tight hold over the economy and its impunity over abuses during and after the Bashir years. Al-Monitor

Jonas Horner

Deputy Project Director, Horn of Africa & Senior Analyst, Sudan
30 Jun 2021
It's imperative that [the Sudanese government] communicate properly to the population...on this [IMF debt relief program] so people don't look up and just see the pain. Reuters

Jonas Horner

Deputy Project Director, Horn of Africa & Senior Analyst, Sudan

Latest Updates

Briefing / Africa

Containing the Volatile Sudan-Ethiopia Border Dispute

In mid-December, Sudanese troops moved into al-Fashaga, an agricultural area on the frontier with Ethiopia, expelling Ethiopian farmers and building fortifications. Fighting threatens to escalate. With assistance from outside mediators, the two countries should convene talks about restoring the shared land-use agreement that prevailed beforehand.

Podcast / Africa

Ethiopia’s Tigray Crisis and Horn of Africa Politics

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood and guest host Comfort Ero talk with Crisis Group’s Horn of Africa director, Murithi Mutiga, about the fighting in Ethiopia’s Tigray region and mounting tension between Ethiopia and its neighbours Eritrea and Sudan.

Briefing / Africa

The Rebels Come to Khartoum: How to Implement Sudan’s New Peace Agreement

The October 2020 accord between rebels and Sudan’s transitional government is a big step forward. But difficulties remain. External powers should help Khartoum broaden the deal to include holdouts, reform the security sector and keep promises to invest in the country’s long-neglected peripheries.

Podcast / Africa

Sudan's U.S. Terror Delisting: Too Little, Too Late?

Sudan's transition is in deep trouble, and Crisis Group’s Sudan expert Jonas Horner explains why on this week’s episode of The Horn. President Trump’s recent promise to remove Sudan from the U.S. list of state sponsors of terrorism may not be enough to mitigate the spiralling economic crisis.

Podcast / Africa

A Rare Glimpse into Darfur’s Last Rebel Stronghold

In early 2020, Vice News correspondent Julia Steers was the first foreign journalist in five years to set foot in the Jebel Marra mountains, Darfur’s last rebel-held area. This week on The Horn, Julia tells of a region traumatised by war and explains why these rebels stayed out of an August peace deal.

Our People

Jonas Horner

Deputy Project Director, Horn of Africa & Senior Analyst, Sudan