Four days of violent unrest in Tripoli on Lebanon’s northern coast could presage more to come, as a new coronavirus outbreak deepens the country’s severe socio-economic crisis. Humanitarian aid is urgently needed to keep the worst-case scenarios at bay.
Political deadlock over govt formation continued amid ongoing economic and social strife; protesters rallied and groups fired rockets at border with Israel in support of Palestinians. French FM Jean-Yves Le Drian 6 May visited Lebanon in another attempt to break stalemate between PM-designate Saad Hariri and President Aoun in forming new govt; Le Drian next day announced sanctions on politicians blocking process. In letter to parliament speaker, Aoun 18 May blamed Hariri for delay and demanded plenary debate, widely seen as call on parliament to rescind Hariri’s PM nomination despite no constitutional provision providing for PM destitution. Hariri 22 May said he would “not form a government as the team of the president wants it, or any other political faction”. Former PMs Fouad Siniora, Najib Mikati and Tammam Salam, widely seen as influential political voices in Sunni community, 19 May condemned Aoun’s initiative as “attack on coexistence”. Economic and social hardship continued. Caretaker PM Hassan Diab 3 May said proposed ration card program aimed at replacing costly subsidies scheme and offering safety net to most vulnerable citizens faced political pushback. Petrol stations 10 May began closing amid continued fuel shortages and rationing, causing hours-long queues by 11 May; dispute over fuel allocation 17 May left one dead in north. World Bank 31 May warned that country’s economic and financial crises could amount to one of “most severe crises episodes globally since the mid-nineteenth century”. In response to deadly fighting between Israel and Gaza-based Palestinian armed factions (see Israel-Palestine), pro-Palestinian protesters 14 May attempted to cross border near Israeli town of Metula, prompting Israeli fire that killed one Hizbollah and injured two protesters; protests 17 May continued at border. Suspected Palestinian groups 18 May fired six rockets from south toward Israel that fell short of crossing border. Altercations broke out in-lead up to 26 May Syrian presidential elections (see Syria); notably, activists of Christian Lebanese Forces party attacked Syrian voters in and around capital Beirut, claiming voting indicated support for Assad regime.
As it tries to pull out of its economic tailspin, Lebanon badly needs a functional cabinet able to make reforms. Such a government must have broad support, including from Hizbollah. The party’s domestic and external foes should accordingly stop attempting to curtail its role.
Lebanon’s reeling economy badly needs outside aid. Yet the political class, which largely created the problems, is resisting necessary change. The European Union should keep limiting its assistance to humanitarian relief until Lebanese politicians make reforms that benefit all citizens, not just the privileged few.
An uprising of unprecedented scope has rocked Lebanon as the country’s economy tumbles deeper into recession. Poverty and unemployment could lead to violent unrest. Donors should put together an emergency package but condition further aid upon reforms to tackle corruption, a major grievance driving protest.
Most Syrian refugees in Lebanon have thought many times about going home but in the end deemed the risks too great. Donors should increase aid allowing the Lebanese government to continue hosting the Syrians, so that any decision they make to leave is truly voluntary.
Four years after plunging into Syria’s civil war, Hizbollah has achieved its core aim of preserving the Assad regime. Yet with no clear exit strategy, the Lebanese “Party of God” faces ever greater costs unless it can lower the sectarian flames, open dialogue with non-jihadist rebel groups and help pave the way for a negotiated settlement.
The fate of the border town Arsal mirrors Lebanon’s many policy failures. The government applies heavy-handed security at the expense of basic services and fair economic opportunities. It should change its policies to become more flexible, accountable and supportive of Syrian refugees – and receive more international help in return.
Turkey is also one of the candidates to rebuild Beirut harbour. There is also a section within Lebanese society – amongst Sunni Muslims – who have some sympathy for Turkey’s neo-Ottoman project.
The Lebanese state has been hollowed out by decades of corruption and patronage, and this has undermined due process and any sense of accountability.
[The Trump administration] is content allowing Israel to take the lead in pushing back against Iranian and Hezbollah influence in Syria.
The real risk [for Israel and Lebanon] is that of a miscommunication or accident being a trigger of a conflict across their border.
[The return of Assad’s forces to the border] has the potential of creating a more united front of resistance between Lebanon and Syria against Israel.
Hezbollah thrives on its position of being a state within a state, an alternative provider for all kinds of things [when Lebanon's political institutions are weakened].
Lebanon’s socio-economic and financial crisis accelerated greatly in the first half of 2020. The government resigned after the Beirut port blast, compounding the disarray. In this excerpt from our Watch List 2020 – Autumn Update, Crisis Group urges the EU and its member states to coordinate continued emergency assistance and revitalisation of key infrastructure, create reforms roadmap, boost civil society, and pool and coordinate emergency funds.
The catastrophic explosion in Beirut’s port is a manifestation of the Lebanese political elite’s predation and dysfunction. Among the country’s long-suffering citizens, shock is quickly yielding to fury. It may be the last chance for those in power to effect long-overdue structural reforms.
The accumulation of crises is driving ever greater numbers of Lebanese into absolute poverty. While the COVID-19 lockdown is gradually easing, the loss of jobs and purchasing power triggered new protests that are turning violent and may prefigure the disintegration of state capacity and institutions.
A new wave of popular protests has jolted an already deeply unsettled Arab world. Nine years ago, uprisings across the region signalled a rejection of corrupt autocratic rule that failed to deliver jobs, basic services and reliable infrastructure. Yet regime repression and the protests’ lack of organisation, leadership and unified vision thwarted hopes of a new order. As suddenly as the uprisings erupted, as quickly they descended into violence. What followed was either brutal civil war or regime retrenchment. Tunisia stands as the sole, still fragile, exception.
Originally published in Valdai Club