The next stage in Iraq's political transition, the drafting and adoption of a permanent constitution, will be critical to the country's long-term stability. Iraqis face a dilemma: rush the constitutional process and meet the current deadline of 15 August 2005 to prevent the insurgents from scoring further political points, or encourage a process that is inclusive, transparent and participatory in an effort to increase popular buy-in of the final product. While there are downsides to delay, they are far outweighed by the dangers of a hurried job that could lead to either popular rejection of or popular resignation to a text toward which they feel little sense of ownership or pride.

The Transitional Administrative Law (TAL) of March 2004 dictates the pace and process of constitutional drafting and adoption. According to its terms, drafting must be completed no later than 15 August 2005 and the text put up for popular referendum by 15 October, with elections for a full-term assembly to follow by 15 December. If successful, this process may go a long way in drying up support for the insurgents. Conversely, failure to get the constitutional endeavour right risks increasing popular discontent and swelling the ranks of the insurgency.

The experience of other transitional societies is clear. Popular participation in and acceptance of the basic pillars of the new order are critical to its success and longevity. The creation of a foundational document that not only receives majority support in a nation-wide referendum but is based on popular input and consensus may well be the optimal way of whittling away support for the insurgents (whose hardcore elements would still need to be tackled militarily) and stabilising Iraq.

This cannot realistically be done within the extremely narrow timeframe of just over two months remaining before 15 August. Far better would be to accept up front that the deadline cannot be met and take advantage of the TAL's escape clause to extend it by six months, to 15 February 2006. This would allow the Transitional National Assembly (TNA), with the help of the United Nations and other organisations and governments with the requisite expertise and resources, to set up a realistic timetable for bringing in excluded sectors of the population (not only Sunni Arab leaders but also representatives of civil society), educating the public about the deliberations, and consulting widely among Iraqis on critical choices regarding their nation's political structure, identity and institutions. With persistent violence taking on an increasingly sectarian character, ensuring that the constitution is viewed as legitimate by all sectors of the population is a vital necessity.

A different approach in the name of rigid adherence to the TAL's deadline would risk playing into the insurgents' hands, condemning Iraq to more violence, and encouraging those elements that have sought, by their deliberately sectarian attacks, to plunge the country into an even deadlier civil war.

Amman/Brussels, 8 June 2005