South Korea’s electoral politics has made a turn to the right that is likely to lead to closer security ties with the U.S. and some other important adjustments in foreign policy and has already strained relations with the North. The shift toward the Grand National Party (GNP), evident in President Lee Myung-bak’s victory in late 2007, was completed when it won a majority in the 18th National Assembly in the 9 April 2008 elections. Those elections were dominated by domestic concerns, especially the economy; foreign policy and inter-Korean relations were near the bottom of voters’
interests. The GNP’s legislative agenda will include deregulation and privatisation, intended to revitalise business. Although generally supportive of Lee on foreign policy, the new assembly may cause him problems, particularly over unpopular economic liberalisation and deregulation proposals. Opposition to these, which have already produced a major political crisis, may have an impact on wider security concerns.

Regionalism, a recurring theme in South Korean politics, was evident in this election as well. GNP factional infighting that began during the presidential campaign continued through the National Assembly elections, but the party now appears to be on track for reconciliation. The main opposition United Democratic Party (UDP) failed to win the one third of seats that would have guaranteed its ability to block constitutional revisions.

The government, however, has been paralysed by street protests and the opposition boycott of the new assembly, which officially convened on 30 May 2008. Street demonstrations began shortly after President Lee’s decision to reopen the domestic market to U.S. beef during a summit with President George W. Bush only days after the April elections. U.S. beef imports were the catalyst for the protests, but they grew as citizens opposed to numerous other policies joined, with the result that Lee increasingly became their target.

The president has wide powers over foreign policy, national security and inter-Korean policy, but some initiatives require legislative approval. The GNP seeks to strengthen the alliance with the U.S. and conclude free trade agreements with it, as well as the European Union (EU), Japan, China and just about any other willing country. However, the first step in the free trade agenda – the resumption of U.S. beef imports – has already encountered difficulty and galvanised a fractured opposition. Lee’s approval rating has plummeted to around 20 per cent, and he has announced a cabinet shake-up after only 100 days in office.

The GNP’s new dominance, however, makes it likely that Seoul will seek to expand South Korea’s role in international peacekeeping operations and official development assistance (ODA). The party envisions greater consultation with the UN and non-governmental organisations (NGOs) to achieve these objectives. South Korea will also try to increase international collaboration on the North Korean nuclear issue. The Lee government has maintained that Pyongyang must ask for help before any food or fertiliser will be delivered, and its bilateral policy toward the North could be described fairly as one of “benign neglect”. This has brought strong criticism from Pyongyang but no request for aid, despite an apparently growing food crisis, and so far has had no negative impact on the six-party talks aimed at denuclearising the North.

Seoul/Brussels, 30 June 2008