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South Asia

CrisisWatch
Conflict Tracker South Asia
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Trends for Last Month June 2021

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Outlook for This Month July 2021

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Contributor

Interim President
atwoodr

To accompany this month’s CrisisWatch, Interim President Richard Atwood looks at the dramatic turn of events in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region, the danger of new fighting and its implications for Horn of Africa geopolitics.

Read President's Take

Reports & Briefings

In The News

26 Jul 2021
There was this idea that if you put a lot of resources into [Afghanistan] and a lot of willpower very quickly, that you can make what we otherwise know are long-term generational developments happen on some kind of speedy timeline that fits American policy priorities. And the world doesn't work that way. NPR

Laurel Miller

Program Director, Asia
16 Jul 2021
My sense is that the Taliban [in Afghanistan] still prefer a political path, albeit one that for all purposes would be a capitulation. AFP

Ibraheem Bahiss

Consultant, Afghanistan
15 Jul 2021
You see a sense of surprise and alarmed reaction from regional powers to the speed of the Taliban advance, but the counterpoint is a lot them saw the writing on the wall as early as [Barack] Obama’s announcement that the US was going to draw down and withdraw nearly a decade ago. The Guardian

Andrew Watkins

Senior Analyst, Afghanistan
24 Jun 2021
The Taliban are strengthening their chokeholds around major cities [...] The fall of Kabul is not imminent. The Taliban is not an unstoppable military juggernaut. Al Jazeera

Andrew Watkins

Senior Analyst, Afghanistan
16 Apr 2021
The counterterrorism mission in Afghanistan had for years now become one of prevention, not one of identifying an imminent threat that must be countered. The Wall Street Journal

Laurel Miller

Program Director, Asia
14 Apr 2021
It's a tragedy that the U.S. didn't get serious about trying to stitch together a peace process in Afghanistan much earlier, before the thread ran out. BBC News

Laurel Miller

Program Director, Asia

Latest Updates

Podcast / Asia

How Afghanistan Views the U.S. Troop Drawdown

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood and Naz Modirzadeh talk to Crisis Group’s Afghanistan expert Andrew Watkins about the looming withdrawal of U.S. troops from the country, how Afghan leaders are preparing and the challenges ahead.

Op-Ed / Asia

There’s No Shortcut to Peace in Afghanistan

Washington’s latest idea of a transitional government would be worse than the dysfunctional status quo.

Originally published in Foreign Policy

Commentary / Asia

Sri Lanka: Prevention Should Be at Heart of New Human Rights Council Resolution

The UN Human Rights Council will soon discuss Sri Lanka, where the new government has scotched truth and justice efforts related to the 1983-2009 civil war. The Council should demand accountability for past crimes but stress that Colombo’s present policies may spark further deadly conflict.  

Speech / Asia

Testimony on Afghanistan to the European Parliament

In testimony to the European Parliament about efforts to end the war in Afghanistan, Crisis Group expert Andrew Watkins describes the current scale of fighting, Taliban policies and how outside actors can support the peace process.

Op-Ed / Asia

Biden Must Make Hard Choices Quickly on Afghanistan

Afghanistan’s fate hinges in large part on how the Biden team decides to approach the country’s conflict and its tenuous, still-nascent peace process.

Originally published in World Politics Review

Our People

Samina Ahmed

Project Director, South Asia and Senior Asia Adviser

Alan Keenan

Senior Consultant, Sri Lanka
akeenan23

Andrew Watkins

Senior Analyst, Afghanistan
and_huh_what

Ibraheem Bahiss

Consultant, Afghanistan